It's always fun to look back and see which predictions were spot on and which were utter failures, so it's with that same fervor and excitement that we present our top ten predictions for the HD arena in 2009. We'll go ahead and warn you that some of these aren't entirely -- how do you say? -- serious, but surely your deductive reasoning skills aren't that badly hampered after last night's romp.

1) Blu-ray player prices will reach $79 before the year's end.
2) First medium-to-large OLED TV will ship to consumers.
3) SED will still be spinning its wheels.
4) HTPCs will become all but forgotten as media streamers and BD decks gain functionality.
5) Wireless HD will still remain insignificant to the general populace.
6) A consumer-level 2K flat-panel will see development.
7) Mayhem will ensue on or around February 17, 2009.
8) 3D HDTVs will reach critical mass at the consumer level, material will still be tough to acquire.
9) 720p video recording will appear on several cellphones.
10) Blu-ray players will be able to effectively replace HD streamers / HTPCs by having access to networked media, Hulu, Netflix Watch Instantly and the entire world of internet-based content.

We can't possibly explain how difficult it was to narrow this down to ten, so do us a favor and mention the predictions we couldn't in comments below. Here's hoping '09 is a banner year for high-def.

Considering that we've already asked you for general tech predictions in 2008, as well as taken the time to peer into your mind about the most anticipated HD innovations, it seems only fair to dedicate a prediction post to the still-raging format war. Of course, if you listen to the analysts, you'll find an incredibly varied selection of responses, but we suppose that follows logic -- you know, considering that we're all really in the dark here. Nevertheless, we figure there's no better way to kick off 2008 (and CES) than to toss out a few outlandish (and we mean outlandish) guesses as to where the format war will be this time next year (if it's still around by then, that is).

1) Warner will indeed go Blu-ray only at CES, sending the HD DVD camp into horrific fits of panic.
2) Warner will throw us all a curveball, confess its unending love for HD DVD and bid adieu to Blu.
3) Combo players will experience an unexpected and completely welcome drop in prices, both formats maintain their edge.
4) DVD forms a militia, overthrows both high-definition formats.
5) Blu-ray finally undercuts HD DVD in the hardware price department, red withers away.
6) Online 1080p movie rentals become the norm, sales of both formats sink.
7) HD DVD woos a major BD studio (or two), steals away Blu market share.
8) A major television manufacturer begins mass marketing sets with either HD DVD / Blu-ray drives within, the excluded format loses ground.
9) Blu-ray figureheads offer Toshiba a grotesquely large sum of money to bow out, BDA celebrates for weeks.
10) Despite incessant rambling from fanboys the world over, sales remain fairly steady throughout 2008 -- we find ourselves in this very spot as 2009 commences.

That's it for our surmising, now let's hear what you all think. You know the drill, drop in your wildest speculation below -- but don't be afraid to mix in a little intelligence, okay?

[Thanks for the idea, Tom!]

Let's start off the week with an article on Slate about why both Blu-ray and HD DVD are already dead: Downloads, hard drives, and the cost of equipment make up a few reasons why some are saying next-gen DVD is already done before it's even gone mainstream. We're not so sure though, and here are some counterpoints to the article:

• The Internet: Alright, so you can already download movies and HD content online. But it takes forever (think 30 to 50 gigs, or more layers aplenty), and is usually bundled with more annoying DRM than AACS provides. Want to move it between devices? Sorry. Want to play it eight, or ten, or 100 days after you bought it? Perhaps not.
• On Demand: The studios would love it if everything you consumed was on-demand. Then you'd never own anything, and they could control when and where you watch it. Oh, but what about in your car on a road trip, or on the train in your video player? And there are plenty of consumers -- count us in on that! -- who like owning physical media, being able to look at album art and boxes and liner notes. Even if distribution is figured out, there's something about having a physical copy of your content that's reassuring.
  
• Equipment: We can see the argument against buying yet another piece of hardware that may or may not work out of the box, or have firmware issues, or upscale your standard-def media well, but with existing DVD players at less than $50, and next-gen players sure to hit that mark eventually, it's not exactly preventing anyone from buying in the long run. Media should similarly drop as time goes by, with Blu-ray and HD DVD discs selling for minor margins above standard DVDs. Finally, people are paying thousands for PS3s and Wiis these days, why not pay $199 for an HD DVD add-on for the Xbox 360?
  
• Hard Drives: Sure, hard drives are cheap and hold a lot of data, but with dual-layer discs holding 30 to 50 gigs, and up to 100 or more planned, they aren't exactly slacking. Also, discs are more portable, and more resistant to drops and shocks.

So, what does everyone else think? Is the next-gen media done before its time? Or is it ahead of its time? Will media stick around for a while longer, or are you ready for the on-demand, downloadable-only future?

[ Via Slashdot ]

If you've been reading our fine site for any length of time now, you might want to sit down while you're reading this because Kagan Research has released the Eleventh Edition of their State of Home Video report, and it says that high-definition DVDs are the future. Pretty shocking stuff for our regular readers and listeners of the podcast. Now, we all knew that despite the many heated battles we've had between the two formats, that this wasn't going to happen overnight, and the Kagan analysts have some numbers to go with their predictions. For the time being, high-def will be a speck in the distance for home video sales, with less and a half of a percent (a mere 100 million or so) of the $16.9 billion to be had in one year. By 2009, they predict VHS will be all but gone -- as if it weren't now?? -- and HD will be $2.6 billion, up to around 15% of the total. That's still not exactly a huge amount, and it will take up to 2015 for it to be the majority at $18.3 billion.

Of course, for video in general, the boom times are already on the way out, as consumers simply can't buy any more videos than they already are, so the rapid growth we've been seeing for the past five years will slow to a more manageable 1 - 2% a year. A slowing of rental revenues will also contribute, as customers begin to get more content through video on demand and streaming than renting at the local store or via Netflix. Online revenues have also grown 67% faster than physical store sales since 1997. Another number to note is that 491 titles were released on DVD in 2005, with 158 so far this year in high definition. Give a few more releases for the remainder of the year, and we can give a decent prediction of 238 by January, which means almost half of the number released on standard DVD. Not terrible for the launch year of two brand new formats, and considering the percentage of sales expected.