Skip to Content

Make smart financial decisions with DailyFinance
AOL Tech

analyst posts

Futuresource still predicting big things for Blu-ray

Always good for an optimistic Blu-ray outlook, analyst Futuresource this week continued to peg 2012 as the year Blu-ray breaks into the mainstream, while reducing its prediction of discs sold this year in the format from 95 to 75 million. The expectation is that within the next couple of years hardware could drop to as cheap as $50 for an "entry-level" Blu-ray player, with dedicated set-top box owners snapping up high definition discs at a much quicker rate than the currently PS3-dominated (6% to 3%) audience. Check Video Business for the full recap, but just in case you hadn't heard, rumors of Blu-ray's impending demise are greatly exaggerated.

Harris Poll results indicate little Blu-ray interest, even as HDTV sales go up


Just some more data for you HD fans to pore over, as The Harris Poll talked to a couple thousand people in April and came away with statistics it claims show interest in Blu-ray is still "lukewarm." We're a little less than convinced, especially after reading over the press release that uses HD DVD to refer both to the dead format and all high def media as a whole in the same sentence, while mentioning that its stats show sales of HD DVD players are up over their 2008 marks by the same amount that Blu-ray is (excluding the PS3). Once you've gotten over that shock, there's also interesting stats showing the number of people planning to switch to Blu-ray in the next year is down to 7%, from 9% last year. Grab the PDF at the read link for the full breakdown, but we're not sure you'll give the survey any more credence than we do (not much.)

Analyst: Blu-ray can't stop video sales slump, sees modest growth in 2010


As frequently predicted, Blu-ray hasn't been enough to make up for sagging DVD sales, as a new Screen Digest report indicates a 4.8 percent slide worldwide last year, falling more than $2.6 billion. After plateauing approaching 2007, disc sales have been falling ever since and even Blu-ray's $482 million contribution can't hold up the slack. Still, it's looking at online rentals like Lovefilm and Quickflix to make up for some of the rental losses internationally, but don't expect Blu-ray to help grow the market at all until at least 2010. Of course, the company did also predict the format war would remain stalemated just weeks before Warner ended the whole thing, so we'd keep a grain of salt handy while reading.

[Via Financial Times]

Analyst: 50 million connected HDTVs by 2013


Ready for another analyst report picking networked devices as the next big thing in U.S. households? Enter the Yankee Group, going out on a limb predicting 30 million connected Blu-ray players, 50 million connected HDTVs and 11 million digital media adapters by 2013. Hopefully that means marketers like Samsung can move you from the waiting for the next version / never got the hype side of the fence by then, we're sure grabbing the full report will provide some ideas how it can be done.

iSuppli sees TV sales continuing to expand despite the economy, Samsung keeps the overall lead


Even the economy can't keep HDTV sales down, according to iSuppli's research. In lieu of travel and going out, we're buying bigger TVs to stay home and watch, with sales of flat panel displays in the $600 - $999 range rising the fastest, while Wal-mart is very close to catching Best Buy in marketshare. Samsung's plasma sales kept it narrowly in the overall lead over upstart (and new LCD champ) Vizio, but we'll have to wait and see how long that lasts.

[Via Yahoo Tech]

CEA study finds serious consumer interest in Internet-enabled TVs, cool bands like Radiohead and Coldplay


The CEA is the latest on the Internet connected HDTV bandwagon , stacking up stats in its Net-Enabled Video: Early Adopters Only? study to show 14.5 million consumers are thinking of buying a net-enabled TV in the next twelve months. Finding out more info about what they're watching appears to be the big draw, although as with most surveys, it probably depends on the questions being asked, though we can't dispute stats showing many people are already online while watching TV. Give it a quick glance and you'll see why Yahoo!, Microsoft and Adobe are in such a hurry to be the online gatekeepers of your next display.

802.11n to dominate the wireless HD wars, says In-Stat

Industry watchers In-Stat didn't mention which variant of WiFi based HD streaming it expects to win out, but just based on the install base 802.11n should be the leader. UWB? DOA. WHDI and WirelessHD? Too expensive, too power hungry, too new. WiFi isn't perfect however, requiring codec support on either end to work with HD video but that's not expected to hold back the 25 million TVs with wireless hardware In-Stat sees shipping by 2013, but for the rest of the details you'll need $3,495 for the research report or a time machine.

[Via TG Daily]

Analyst: '09 YTD Blu-ray sales double those of '08, 10.5 million Blu-ray households in the U.S.

Adams Media Research hasn't always had the most positive outlook on Blu-ray numbers, but its latest report indicates that despite the current state of the economy and the still-high price of Blu-ray discs the format is continuing to grow, with year to date numbers that nearly double those from last year at around 9 million compared to 4.8 million at this point in 2008. As usual, Andy Parsons of the BDA had a positive quote to give Video Business, since he was "delighted" by the figures, which also included an estimated total of 10.5 million Blu-ray households (including dedicated players and PS3s, no word if laptops played into that figure.) It's another year later, and there've been many more Blu-ray players sold so the growth isn't surprising, but there's also a lot more competition looking for the 1080p crown,but it looks like most are still hopping on the Blu bandwagon.

Survey: Only one in 10 UK consumers planning to go HD this year

Looks like Brits have something more important on their minds than HDTV, with survey results indicating that although 99% of consumers were aware of HD only 11% are planning on buying one this year. Of course, one must take online polls with a grain of salt, but the results must be troubling for projected rollouts of HD and beyond, with 53% indicating they don't have it and don't plan to buy. The problem? Tight wallets and a "perceived lack of content." We'll wait until the HD Dr. Who Planet of the Dead special airs and see if that shifts the numbers any.

Are you watching TV and reading this at the same time? In-Stat survey says probably

Wonder why TV manufacturers are so happy to jam the Internet into TV sets? A recent In-Stat survey reveals that synchronizing the web and TV programming could be key going forward, since so many people (up to 50% of men and 30% of women, depending on age group) already watch TV while using a computer. They'll need to figure something out to keep customers attention, with results also indicating that around 15% of consumers plan to cut back on subscription TV, Internet and mobile services over the next year, which could trim up to $5 billion in revenue. Of course, you'll have to drop $3,495 to find out more about TV viewing habits including consumer interest in Internet TV services, so we wouldn't be surprised to see the pay TV execs that cough up for this kind of data put it to use sooner rather than later.

Analyst: Nearly half of broadband households are interested in Internet TV


We guess it just depends how you ask the question. Parks Associates new white paper From Boob Tube to YouTube: Consumers and TVs breaks down consumer interest in all the new features popping up in televisions of late, like VOD access and various widget services, finding almost 50% are interested in "premium web content" like TVs and movies delivered through a set-top box, and 33% showing interest in widgets. VP of Parks Associates Kurt Scherf sees this as just the beginning, with customers making hardware purchasing decisions and subscription choices based on the availability advanced video services. So far so good, but we guess the real test comes when these new TVs hit the shelves later this year.

[Via Hometoys]

Analysts hem and haw on future Blu-ray success


The CEA had expected that sales of Blu-ray decks would reach around 5.7 million units this year, and while some may quickly assume that this whole economic crisis may sideline that forecast, many analysts are saying that it could actually help matters. On one hand, it's easy to assume that potential BD buyers will opt to simply hold tight to their funds, but on the other, many may justify the purchase of higher-end in-home electronics given that they'll be spending less time out on the town. Tim Alessi, LG Electronics product development director, confessed that he was "still in agreement with the CEA's estimates that Blu-ray decks have the potential to double this year to roughly 5.7 million units. Jonathan Zupnik, Sears audio/video/TV DMM, stated the following: "As we are hearing the opening price point is already flashing $149 - it needs to be $99 to really get things going. Even with that, as long as the movies are over $20 that will continue to keep things at a relatively slow pace. The consumer is used to [disc prices of] $13.99 at launch and picking through bins at $3.99." We totally hear you, Mr. Zupnik.

Analyst: Wii-styled remotes are key to connecting consumers


We've seen all manner of remote control, from numberless to sliders to the hand-waving variety, but Strategy Analytics believes its latest survey indicates the ideal TV media browsing device is something like the Nintendo Wii controller. Topping PC-style keyboards, traditional remotes and voice control in that order the motion-sensitive point and click nature of the Wiimote gives it a leg up on the competition in the ten-foot interface battle. Ready to switch from tennis to Boxee without changing controllers, or are you still looking for the nearest touchscreen input laced Harmony product?

The State of Home Video study predicts a Blu-ray Golden Era of 2014-17

Want to know when, or if Blu-ray will overtake DVD? SNL Kagan's analysts went back to the crystal ball for The State of Home Video report and see high definition DVD (hey, that might include CBHD or HD NVD) taking 59.7% of the market in 2014, peaking in 2017 at 73.8% before video on-demand finally takes over. Still, Blu-ray will start picking up the slack on DVD sales (apparently slowed from earlier predictions by the current economic state) as early as next year, with player sales rising to $1.3 billion and finally reaching the mass market, before spiking in 2013. Unfortunately it appears we're in for quite a few more years of VOD services figuring out their technology and content packages, you ready to hang onto optical formats for a while longer?

Analyst: Game consoles are most Internet connected STB, but Blu-ray players will lead growth


Wondering about the progress of the "connected home" so effectively diagrammed above? In-Stat's got the numbers, noting that by June 2008, nearly 43% of U.S. Windows PCs were of the Media Center variety, and found 64% of respondents at least somewhat interested in streaming video from the Internet to their TV. As it is, it looks like getting your Internet video service onto a game console is the best move (you don't say?) since they're the most commonly 'net connected CE device, but thanks to BD-Live and plunging hardware prices, the analysts see Blu-ray players leading growth. We're just hoping the additional details in the $3,495 version include telling higher ups that we'd like more selection and surround sound to go with our streaming HD. Any other requests?




AOL News

Other Weblogs Inc. Network blogs you might be interested in: