Perennial display industry prognosticator DisplaySearch has looked really deeply into its crystal ball, and has come back with OLED TVs and mini-note PCs as the big growth sectors. Over the years 2007 - 2015, DisplaySearch pegs sales growth for OLED TV at 167-percent and mini-note PC at 74-percent, both outpacing even the golden-egg-laying goose that is the digital photo frame. On the large scale, we agree that OLED looks like it will be the future, but putting numbers on an 8-year span is a bit of a reach; or at least that's what laser TV and FED are hoping.

We suppose it's possible that you've missed out on all the fiber expansion going on here in the US, but even if so, you'd probably guess that programming competition in general is heating up. SNL Kagan has published new research that suggests that global multichannel hypercompetition is just around the bend, with 54 of the top 75 markets to see "four or more digital video distribution platforms" by 2013. The study focused on the continued deployment of FTTH, IPTV and DTH satellite, and it also noted that digital terrestrial television (DTT) and hybrid DTT-IP systems were "adding to the competitive mix." It's also no shock to learn that cable carriers are fighting all of this with SDV implementation, VOD offerings, bundle ("triple-play") deals and dynamic electronic program guides. Mmm, competition.

[Image courtesy of AT&T]

The term "widescreen" is one of the most notoriously confusing monikers this side of Full HD used to describe a display's specifications. Widescreen generally translates to a 16:10 aspect ratio when discussing computer LCDs (monitors or laptop displays) or 16:9 if your talking about the living room TV. Of course, it can also refer to the 2.35:1 ratio often used for films or something entirely different if you're Apple touting the wonders of your new widescreen iPhone. Fortunately, we're trending towards at least some convergence around the 16:9 aspect. DisplaySearch predicts that by 2010, 16:9 panels will make up 90% of new laptop displays and 67% of new monitors. Acer has been at the forefront of this transition with products like its Gemstone Blue laptops and the Acer P224W monitor pictured above. The move is being driven by panel manufacturers' desire to maximize production efficiency -- something they should have realized before the glass sizes diverged in the first place. Regardless, the end result should be more pennies saved by you, Joe Consumer, and that's a good thing.

By now, we're sure you've heard just how much the US government is allocating for the 2009 analog shutoff ($1.5 billion), not to mention the boatloads of cash that has been / will be spent on advertising. A new report, however, is explaining that the impending switchover could be costly to more than just the feds. Cable companies, broadcasters and consumers all have legitimate complaints, and each of the groups will be sharing some of the associated costs. Many argue that broadcasters are actually benefiting from the change, as they essentially garner free spectrum to use for channel expansion. Of course, these very broadcasters assert that it's costing them millions to procure equipment necessary to comply with the mandate, and cable companies are shouting in a similar tone. In the end, the article suggests that all of this may really be "much ado about nothing," and while we can't help but agree (with reservations), we're just hoping that all this unoccupied spectrum will lead to a universal boost in HD programming.

Blu-ray still has a lot of convincing to do before ABI believes it's the future, mostly because of upconverting DVD players. According to the analyst's figures, while 35% of DVD players sold today (that low?) upconvert, 60% will by 2013 (again, that low?). The state of Blu-ray hardware going forward isn't to their liking either, with principal analyst Steve Wilson stating "studios better hope that people are playing movies on their Playstations. Otherwise there's very little installed base." With PS3s accounting for 85% of Blu-ray players in 2008, ABI doesn't see things evening out until 2013, with high prices for dedicated players keeping sales volume lower than studios would like. Of course, ABI also saw combo drives as the next big thing in 2012, so we wouldn't return all of our high def discs just yet.

Break out the salt, because ABI Research is making predictions on the complexion of your HT rig in 2013. Considering how long we've been hearing about convergence of PCs and HT, the prediction of a rise in HTPCs isn't exactly going out on a limb. But give the researchers credit, as they've got the guts to put a number on the trend -- 25 million, to be exact. ABI predicts that the path of PC + extenders will need to undergo some refinement before they really take off and that full-blown custom HTPC rigs will remain a fringe market. We've felt the sting on both of those counts. We know things will get better integrated, but we think that vendors will have to deliver entire end-to-end solutions for the HTPC to really take off en masse; "mix and match" approaches that rely on conformity between vendors doesn't have a great track record, or simply leave consumers baffled. A lot of improvement can happen in five years, and we don't want to see ABI's figure to represent 25 million unhappy consumers.


[Image courtesy ShamanCrystal]

As we poked and prodded through the ups and downs of the format war, we noticed a recurring theme -- HD DVD seemed to have things going in its favor on more than one occasion. Consumers adored the low priced hardware, studios were coming on board and Sony's PlayStation 3 (along with all the other Blu-ray players) was priced extraordinarily high. Not to mention Sony's absolutely awful track record with formats. In a recent interview with ABI Principal Analyst Steve Wilson, BetaNews found that he believed that the outcome of the format war wouldn't necessarily benefit the consumer. Besides being more expensive and less developed, some Blu-ray players have had quite the time performing as advertised. According to ABI, "it wasn't customers' likes or dislikes that powered the fatal blow in the format war, it was Warner Bros.' decision to switch allegiance to Blu-ray, along with subsequent moves to dump HD DVD by major retailers such as Wal-Mart, Netflix and Blockbuster." Frankly, we can't argue with that one iota.

[Thanks, Andrew]

As red continues to fade in the format war, an eye turns towards DVD as Blu-ray's most formidable opponent. According to Adams Media Research, while HDM hardware sales are on par with DVD's first two years -- even exceeding them due to the price slashing and pack-ins of the holiday season -- HDM discs have only sold 8.3 million compared to 16.3 million DVD's over a similar time period. While we're pretty sure Netflix has had some effect on that number, DVD is still an even more formidable opponent now, than VHS was in 1997. The good news is that HDM sales increased 9.5 times in their second year, and VideoBusiness' sources report 1.5 million discs sold in 2008. With HDTV penetration continuing to grow, we'll see if Blu can keep up the pace on its own.

The only thing better than one analyst's opinion on the format war is...yet another analyst's opinion on the format war! ABI Research chimes in, expecting the currently high-priced hybrid HD DVD / Blu-ray PC drives to match price with Blu-ray-only drive in 2009, and exceed their sales in 2010. Also seen as not for long on this mortal coil: dedicated high definition decoding chipsets. ABI expects Intel and AMD's integrated chipsets to have more than enough horsepower for HD codecs in upcoming PCs. ABI has previously brought us predictions including HD DVD leading the way in 2006 and HDTV to Media Center PC connections tripling this year, so we'll wait and see how this one works out.

No sooner than chatter began flying over a potential AT&T / EchoStar deal, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. is wondering who actually thought (or still thinks) that this is a match made in heaven. According to media analyst Craig Moffett, "the very notion of an AT&T / EchoStar combination is based on a flawed premise; i.e. that AT&T needs video in order to compete with cable." He went on to say that AT&T is losing phone lines to cable because cable simply "has a marginal cost advantage," and noted that pairing up the two "does nothing to address AT&T's underlying cost problem." Stepping back, we actually see quite a bit of logic in Mr. Moffett's reasoning, and when you mix in the fact that AT&T's U-Verse could pose "a strategic threat to EchoStar," one really wonders how effective a partnership would be.

If there's one thing you can count on in the format war, it's conflicting evidence -- oh, and the occasional knife fight, too. Among all the reports of Blu-ray / HD DVD claiming victory, there's also a decent amount of folks who believe this whole mess is still deadlocked, and the latest musings from sister companies Screen Media Digest and Adams Media Research certainly support the latter. Put simply, the two firms feel that the "main factor eating into high-definition adoption is standard-definition DVD," and while we've already heard that DVD player sales were slipping, we've no doubt owners will continue to snap up DVDs for quite some time. According to Helen Davis Jayalath, senior analyst at Screen Digest, "both formats will be established and coexist for the foreseeable future," and she even suggested that HD software would be split 60% / 40% globally, with BD taking the edge. Feel free to hit the read link if you're intrigued, but don't be shocked if you see something completely contradictory hit the presses just hours from now.

Even though Matsushita joined forces with Hitachi to take on the less-than-favorable plasma market, things (still) aren't looking good in terms of sales figures. According to recent reports, PDP makers on the whole "are likely to report weak results, having lost dominance of the market for large TVs to the more popular LCD." Additionally, Samsung already posted a "worse-than-expected quarterly net loss, hurt by tumbling prices of its television screens." On the flip side, LCD producers are more likely to be holding their heads high, as sales of these sets has continued to be strong regardless of how far the prices are falling. If you're scratching your head because you thought that people preferred plasmas over LCDs, we can only assume that regardless of predilection, money talks.

Although HDTVs were atop nearly everyone's holiday wish list, it seems that folks aren't splurging as much on their now-stagnant DVD collection as in years past, which could be an "early warning sign" for 2007. According to a recent report by Pali Research analysts Richard Greenfield and Mark Smaldon, next year could be the first year in consumer spending history that DVD sales actually decline. The report is based on Best Buy / Circuit City's relatively sluggish 2006 disc sales, and when you consider the sagging record sales on the music front, the scenario isn't too hard to fathom. Although there's no pinpointed reason why folks aren't divulging quite as much disposable income on DVDs, some analysts suggest that the onset of internet movie downloads and films on demand are cutting into actual disc sales -- something Comcast (and other providers) could have a hand in. Notably, folks are bearish when speculating about the HD DVD and Blu-ray impact, as they say that high definition films won't sell enough to put a dent in the expected downturn, which could bleed all the way into 2008.