Despite the apparent tru2way lovefest between cable ops and electronics manufacturers, ABI Research isn't convinced. Add together the cable operator's unwillingness to forecast exact tru2way deployments, and a lack of focus on interoperability testing portend a future where customers can't be sure their equipment will work across different cable systems. Without that, electronics manufacturers could drag their feet supporting it, as has occurred with CableCard, leaving operators (and customers) with expensive and distinctly unglamorous set-top boxes. Despite all that, the report predicts half of all cable customers will have tru2way by 2013, but it won't be easy.

Blu-ray still has a lot of convincing to do before ABI believes it's the future, mostly because of upconverting DVD players. According to the analyst's figures, while 35% of DVD players sold today (that low?) upconvert, 60% will by 2013 (again, that low?). The state of Blu-ray hardware going forward isn't to their liking either, with principal analyst Steve Wilson stating "studios better hope that people are playing movies on their Playstations. Otherwise there's very little installed base." With PS3s accounting for 85% of Blu-ray players in 2008, ABI doesn't see things evening out until 2013, with high prices for dedicated players keeping sales volume lower than studios would like. Of course, ABI also saw combo drives as the next big thing in 2012, so we wouldn't return all of our high def discs just yet.

Break out the salt, because ABI Research is making predictions on the complexion of your HT rig in 2013. Considering how long we've been hearing about convergence of PCs and HT, the prediction of a rise in HTPCs isn't exactly going out on a limb. But give the researchers credit, as they've got the guts to put a number on the trend -- 25 million, to be exact. ABI predicts that the path of PC + extenders will need to undergo some refinement before they really take off and that full-blown custom HTPC rigs will remain a fringe market. We've felt the sting on both of those counts. We know things will get better integrated, but we think that vendors will have to deliver entire end-to-end solutions for the HTPC to really take off en masse; "mix and match" approaches that rely on conformity between vendors doesn't have a great track record, or simply leave consumers baffled. A lot of improvement can happen in five years, and we don't want to see ABI's figure to represent 25 million unhappy consumers.


[Image courtesy ShamanCrystal]

The only thing better than one analyst's opinion on the format war is...yet another analyst's opinion on the format war! ABI Research chimes in, expecting the currently high-priced hybrid HD DVD / Blu-ray PC drives to match price with Blu-ray-only drive in 2009, and exceed their sales in 2010. Also seen as not for long on this mortal coil: dedicated high definition decoding chipsets. ABI expects Intel and AMD's integrated chipsets to have more than enough horsepower for HD codecs in upcoming PCs. ABI has previously brought us predictions including HD DVD leading the way in 2006 and HDTV to Media Center PC connections tripling this year, so we'll wait and see how this one works out.