Ah, the infamous 2012. The latest batch of research forecasting out to that fateful year comes from ABI, who is proudly proclaiming that global set-top-box shipments will peak in just over three years. The data includes STBs that pass along satellite, cable, or DTT signals, and the impending decrease is primarily pegged to the transition to all-digital broadcasting. To be frank, we can't say we entirely agree or even understand the logic there, but we can get along with the assertion that STB functionality is apt to become more tightly integrated in HDTVs / HTPCs in the future. Personally, we still feel that there's a lot of life left globally in the dedicated set-top-box, but we all know it's just a matter of time before we're all getting HDD implants in our skulls to log missed episodes of The Office.

Man, what a difference 1.75 months makes. In mid-September, the BDA actually admitted that Blu-ray player prices weren't going to be sinking anytime soon; fast forward to now, and we've already got a smattering of sub-$200 decks to choose from. That being the case, ABI Research has just pushed out a new release that points out the obvious, noting that "competitive pressure from movie download services, and media speculation about the future success of the Blu-ray format itself has resulted in falling Blu-ray player prices across a range of current and older models." Unfortunately, there aren't any hints in there of just how low prices will go on Black Friday and during the run-up to the end of December, but trust us, we looked.

On the heels of our own roundtable discussion, ABI Research has a survey that ties video consumption methods to age. No big surprises -- the younger crowd leads the way on gaming consoles, VOD, internet downloads and cell phone video -- but still, some interesting trends emerged. DVRs look to have achieved uniform adoption across all age groups, whereas the older VOD technology is still largely used by young adults. To VOD's credit, up to half of those who try it get hooked, regardless of age, so carriers just need to get people started (we're thinking free trials are in order). Internet downloads are really only on the radar of the under-30 crowd, chalked up to "inconsistencies in the process," which might explain why some people's eyes glaze over when we try to explain how to get content via the internet. On the other end of the age spectrum, videogame console use more than doubled in the 65+ year-old group; but we figure a lot of those units are Wiis that won't be used for watching content (officially or otherwise). Hit the link for more details and chime in with your take.

You just have to love the mixed messages, don't you? On one hand, you've got research asserting that Blu-ray simply isn't gaining the desired amount of traction since the demise of HD DVD; on the other, you've got numbers showing that BD adoption actually is on the up and up. So, which is it? According to a hot-out-of-the-oven study by ABI Research, consumers in America are still procrastinating when it comes to buying into Blu-ray. Over half of the 1,000 respondents noted that they had "no plans to purchase one," with 23% suggesting that they might take the plunge in 2009. Principal analyst Steve Wilson, in our estimation, nails the reason right on the head: consumers can't see why Blu-ray is worth the extra coin over DVD. Let's face it -- VHS to DVD was entirely more dramatic than DVD to Blu-ray, and for folks still watching an SDTV, Blu-ray isn't even a consideration. Slow and steady, BD, slow and steady.

[Image courtesy of WikInvest]

Despite the apparent tru2way lovefest between cable ops and electronics manufacturers, ABI Research isn't convinced. Add together the cable operator's unwillingness to forecast exact tru2way deployments, and a lack of focus on interoperability testing portend a future where customers can't be sure their equipment will work across different cable systems. Without that, electronics manufacturers could drag their feet supporting it, as has occurred with CableCard, leaving operators (and customers) with expensive and distinctly unglamorous set-top boxes. Despite all that, the report predicts half of all cable customers will have tru2way by 2013, but it won't be easy.

A lot of things in the high-def world are going down in 2012, so it's not shocking at all to hear that we've got yet another thing to look forward to during that fateful year. ABI Research has just loosed a new report that tags wireless HD as being in its "incubation" stage, with fewer than 100,000 devices in the sector scheduled to ship in 2008. Furthermore, analysts are suggesting that 2012 would be the earliest point in which one million wireless HDTV installations occurred worldwide -- and that's an "optimistic forecast." We posed the question a few months back wondering just how long it would take for this stuff to take off. 'Spose we have our answer, huh?

[Via Connected Home News]

ABI Research has just confirmed feelings that we've had for months: Blu-ray just isn't going to dominate the market until prices sink down from the stratosphere and players emerge that are fully-featured. A new study from the previously mentioned firm has suggested that we still have "12 to 18 months" before the BD market really kicks into gear, and it specifies that "fully-featured" decks need to come in at $200 or below before the general public will consider coughing up the cash required to make the jump to high-definition media. It's also noted that many are perfectly satisfied with the quality of DVD, and until prices make it manageable to switch, the outfit feels that huge chunks of consumers will simply stay put. Additionally, we're told that PS3s will "make up over 85-percent of the BD players in the field" during 2008, and we won't see Sony's console fall from the top until 2013 when the installed base of standalone decks / PC-based BD players overtake the installed base of PlayStation 3s. Yeah, you're hearing echoes on that last tidbit.

[Image courtesy of LA Times]