Analyst: '09 YTD Blu-ray sales double those of '08, 10.5 million Blu-ray households in the U.S.
by Richard Lawler 
posted Apr 16th 2009 at 11:07AM
Adams Media Research hasn't always had the most positive outlook on Blu-ray numbers, but its latest report indicates that despite the current state of the economy and the still-high price of Blu-ray discs the format is continuing to grow, with year to date numbers that nearly double those from last year at around 9 million compared to 4.8 million at this point in 2008. As usual, Andy Parsons of the BDA had a positive quote to give Video Business, since he was "delighted" by the figures, which also included an estimated total of 10.5 million Blu-ray households (including dedicated players and PS3s, no word if laptops played into that figure.) It's another year later, and there've been many more Blu-ray players sold so the growth isn't surprising, but there's also a lot more competition looking for the 1080p crown,but it looks like most are still hopping on the Blu bandwagon.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
cake97 @ Apr 16th 2009 11:24AM
So 6 million ps3's and 4.5 million "regular" players.
wreckedchevy @ Apr 16th 2009 11:38AM
actually just checked vgchartz says there 8.38 million ps3 running wild in the us so stand alones still are not up there yet
WebDev511 @ Apr 16th 2009 11:40AM
So one year after Blu became the only physical HD format, sales have doubled? Not that we would know from info published here because we never see the sales charts (let alone which version) here anymore. I can believe this because I now have just over 30 titles on BD versus the 15 I had a year ago. At this pace I'll have as many titles on Blu as I have on HD DVD in 12 years!
Multi-format-mayhem @ Apr 16th 2009 3:01PM
Yeah.
Some of us did warn this would be the case and for some time too.
Of course the zealot Blu-ray fanclub (taking their cue from the significant PS3 game console fanbase) did nothing but howl us down.
It's now pretty obvious.
Blu-ray simply cannot grow fast enough nor penetrate the mass-market quickly enough before the next tech establishes itself in that mass-market.
It'll take about 3 - 5yrs (according to my ISP fibre to the cabinet is going to happen across the UK for most of the population in 5yrs).
Blu-ray will be almost 8yrs old by then and still it will have failed to dislodge DVD by then.
All too little too late.
Great if you accept that and treat it for the 'next laser disc' it really is, pretty cr@p if you swallowed the lies and BS of the fanclub who pretended it would just roill in & 'become the next dvd'.
nick @ Apr 16th 2009 7:21PM
I don't find it hard to believe sales have doubled to 10 million for Blu-ray, but it's still a far cry from the 200 million DVDs sold during the same time frame. And doubling 5 million discs would be expected due to the increase in players, but it's not what I would call a strong fold hold just yet. It's momentum. Even if it doubled again by next year which I would expect it to do, we're still looking at 10% of the overall market.
As far as the players are concerned, I'd imagine the 10.5 million blu-ray players are probably 80% PS3 and 20% stand alone. Of those, I'd have to assume some of the PS3s are only used for gaming.
I firmly believe we're still in the early adopter/curiosity phase when it comes to Blu-Ray. I also believe if the disc were cheaper it would sell much better.
EatingPie @ Apr 16th 2009 11:02PM
Blu-ray is selling just *slightly* less than DVD at the same point in its lifetime according to DigitalBits. Up until the recession, Blu-ray was selling *better* than DVD in its comparative lifetime.
However, comparing current Blu-ray sales to *current* DVD sales isn't any way to assess the format. Had you done the same with DVD / VHS, you would have had similar disparity... and similar doom and gloom.
So despite all the "I wish HD-DVD won" and "DVD is selling 200 million right now" silliness, Blu-ray is doing very well, though it's been negatively effected by the recession.
-Pie
EatingPie @ Apr 16th 2009 11:47PM
@Web & Mayhem.
Forgot this FYI. Those numbers are YEAR TO DATE. Not total since inception, which is what you guys seemed to assume.
So in the first 3 months of last year, they sold 4.8M units. In the first 3 months of this year, they sold 10M units.
-Pie
Multi-format-mayhem @ Apr 17th 2009 11:33AM
EatingPie
"Blu-ray is selling just *slightly* less than DVD at the same point in its lifetime according to DigitalBits."
Well you can believe DB if you prefer but I just don't see them as a credible source on this topic, they have been far too partial on this subject, for years now, and I wouldn't trust a word they said on the subject.
Ditto any of the claims the BDA have made about numbers sold.
The best they can manage is to obfuscate and blur the facts.
They almost never release verifiable straight factual numbers (and only used to do so when the old format war was still happening).
The truth is, as best as we can tell, that in a global market now well used to disc based video media (which was not the case with DVD) Blu-ray adoption trails DVD.
The most pertinent fact is that Blu-ray is still about as far away from mass adoption as a video format as can be.
It is still true that the PS3 dominates Blu-ray to a deeply unhealthy degree and that despite this Blu-ray growth has been very slow, PS3 owners only buy very occasionally.
That has always struck me as a very poor basis on which to try and launch a new video format into the mass-market.
Like I said, even if sales double every year for the next 5yrs it will still be too slow and Blu-ray will still not have reached anything like the sort of mass-market penetration necessary to establish itself as anything other than a passing niche before digital distribution takes over.
Every week here we see several new services springing up for VOD and some sort of streaming or downloading service.
In five years that present steady trickle will be an unavoidable torrent (lol).
Blu-ray (if your concern was ever that you really wanted to see the mass adoption of HD on disc) was absolutely the wrong choice.
Sadly we all have to live with that now, for a relatively short time at least. :P
Ed @ Apr 16th 2009 12:37PM
I think it's now becoming pretty easy to speculate that had HD DVD won the war, the lower entry cost of the format in the form of $100-200 players and the availability of DVD/HD DVD combo discs would have brought the format to greater market penetration than Blu-ray has been able to achieve.
A shame.
Spiza @ Apr 16th 2009 1:13PM
It's not always about penetration. It's how you use it.
Nate @ Apr 16th 2009 3:03PM
I could be wrong, but I thought the prices dropped only after most of the major studios dropped or signaled the drop in support for the format. So, I wouldn't necessarily hang on to player cost arguement too closely.
Ed @ Apr 16th 2009 3:10PM
@Nate
You're incorrect. The Warner defection killed the format, and it came in early 2008. But in late Summer of '07, Toshiba secured Paramount's loyalty and dropped the prices of second generation players to between $99 and $199 in order to play on the momentum.
HD DVD players never cost as much as Blu-ray players to manufacture, either. Partly because Toshiba didn't impose a $50 royalty on HD DVD hardware like Sony does with their Blu-ray 'partners'.
EatingPie @ Apr 16th 2009 11:42PM
You're actually wrong about this.
Had HD-DVD won the war, prices would have gone up even more than Blu-ray. Why? Because Toshiba would stop selling their players for way below cost, and would have stopped subsidizing companies like Paramount. Similarly, Microsoft would have stopped offering "incentives" to studios, because it would no longer have been necessary.
Heck, even with a subsidy, the Star Trek: TOS on HD-DVD was like $300, and sold only about 2000 copies. That's right, 2000. Total.
-Pie
Ed @ Apr 17th 2009 12:08AM
@ EatingPie
When was the Star Trek TOS set ever anywhere near $300? Its MSRP was $199 and it *never* sold for near that even.
Please don't join a conversation if all you're going to bring to it is fantasy land facts.
Ed @ Apr 17th 2009 12:10AM
@ EatingPie
I'm also genuinely curious as to where you're pulling your '2000' sales figure from since the set has never been discontinued and, being a DVD/HD DVD combo offering, has always been the only way to purchase the remastered first season.
jono @ Apr 16th 2009 12:40PM
What a retard! You bought so many HD-DVD's knowing that both still were around, and had a chance of failing. You just made yourself look funny without even knowing it LOL!
FNG @ Apr 16th 2009 1:53PM
sooooo his HD-DVD's no longer work then because blu ray won? Oh wait, they do. So he still owns movies in HD that he wanted to and for less money. what a retard...
WebDev511 @ Apr 16th 2009 2:31PM
Yeah 1080p with lossless or DD+ @ 1.5MBps for $5 is obviously inferior to the same title on blue for $15 or more. I feel so cheated...NOT.
THizzle7XU @ Apr 17th 2009 9:39AM
Have fun watching the same 10 movies over and over and over for the rest of your life.
Multi-format-mayhem @ Apr 18th 2009 10:06AM
THizzle7XU
They had almost 500 English titles out when the plug was pulled (amn of them classics) and over 80 titles worldwide.
What do you mean "watching the same 10 movies over and over"?
Are you really so badly informed?
jarofchris @ Apr 16th 2009 1:08PM
I hate combo discs and am glad HD DVD failed for that reason primarily. If you're going to include the DVD format, then do it like Disney: separate BD and DVD in one package.
DVD4ME @ Apr 16th 2009 7:24PM
Love my combos, never had a problem with them and I can use them in any player in the house, car, brilliant!
kenjix @ Apr 16th 2009 3:05PM
so 2 years later and HD-DVD fans are twice as burned as they were last year based on the responses in the comments section :P
Sorry guys how long are you going to hold that grudge ?
The Future was Blu last year :P
WebDev511 @ Apr 16th 2009 4:15PM
Well maybe in the Future, Blu will have overcome quality issues, be affordable and ready. Of course by then it might be too late.
Multi-format-mayhem @ Apr 17th 2009 11:33AM
It's not a "grudge".
It's merely a reflection of the true state of affairs.
Blu-ray was the wrong choice (if seeing a disc based HD video format ion disc was what you wanted to see).
I have my Blu-rays and I do enjoy them (the latest Jeff Beck and Police shows are outstanding).
None of that takes away the fact that Blu-ray is well and truly parked largely in a PS3 niche and is showing absolutely zero sign of ever going much beyond that.
(that is what this article is saying at heart)
LonnieDvD @ Apr 16th 2009 5:01PM
Looks like I can keep buying new movies on DVD for at least 3 years.
mike @ Apr 16th 2009 10:57PM
so what? DVD sales didn't surpass VHS until 2003 and most movies were also released on VHS up until 2006. I'm really tired of people around here wishing this site were EngadgetGoodEnough instead of EngadgetHD
The_Omega_Man @ May 22nd 2009 6:15PM
http://www.engadgethd.com/2009/02/26/analysts-hem-and-haw-on-future-blu-ray-success?icid=sphere_blogsmith_inpage_engadgethd
Fred @ Apr 18th 2009 4:51PM
wow, where do i start???
How did they get this number, PS3's used only for BR, how does that work???
10.5 Mil is American households... I'm curious how many households do you guys exist in America. 100 million 150, so anywhere there and that means blu has a 7 to 10 percent hold in homes.
To the guy who said we watch the same 10HDDVD movies, do I even need to respond. I take it sir you don't watch the same stupid movies on DVD, or VHS, or TV. Like they all have everything ever made.
Now for is Blu going to die, no, so stop being player haters. Mulit you keep bringing up downloadable formats and forget do we have space for it, do we have bandwidth for it???
Blu is going to grow, its going to stay, and its going to get support. The question will be are you on it or off it??? people are still buying their first LCD or plasmas. How many households have a high def tv???
SO many questions, the same debate over and over again, with the same players involved.
"You've changed things... forever." Joker (Blu wins over HDDVD)
Fred @ Apr 18th 2009 4:55PM
its do you guys think exist... oops.
So the answer is... you guys keep doing what your doing, I'll keep doing what I am doing... download away, watch regular DVDS.
But you will hear no complaints (well maybe one or two) about me and my Blu Ray movies and my old HDDVD flics.