1) The global economy tanks with alarming severity from Q1 - Q3 of 2009 and stays flat on it's back for the rest of 2009 although by Q4 it looks like - if we are lucky - we have seen the worst.
At the end of 2009 it is clear that this will be followed up by a horrible 2010, a year of almost no real growth and almost as bad.
2) Contrary to the hopes of the delusional college game console fanboys and flat-out plain fraudsters in the CE retailing industry, the vast bulk of US TV owners switching over to digital TV reception will do so with 'cheap-to-the-point-of-almost-being-free' set-top-boxes and are not conned into buying small HD TV sets in large numbers. Small HD TV sets they neither really want, need nor can honestly 'see' much HD on anyways.
3) With unemployment up all over the developed world and consumer spending heavily down Blu-ray adoption continues to grow - but at such a slow rate everyone can see it missed the bus long long ago and sits as a small minority niche part of the market. It can never become 'the next DVD' as it has failed utterly to gain even a marginally majority stake in the mass-market. Probably (like the Samsung guy said) with about another 4 or 5 yrs left in it.
Truth Teller, or rather Lie Teller, everyone knows that you are pissed of because your format lost and you are now doing your best to discredit the winning format.
However, trust me, no one cares about the BS you're spewing out on this forum. Obviously you where banned at least twice so, do us all a favor and just get lost...please!
Your problem is that you just can't bear it that your beloved format lost too. The state of the economy guarantees it.
Where are these lies you want to claim I've told, huh?
The economy is tanking. Set-top box sales are huge - way bigger than the small HD TV sales numbers and are indeed overcoming the lying PR campaign the high def fanboys in retail were depending upon. Blu-ray is staying minority niche.
Here's the problem with the digital streaming logic. A very large portion US still cannot receive boradband internet without using the painfully slow satellite options that cost in excess of $100 a month. Add to that the fact that in areas where there is broadband most providers will be instituting bandwidth caps in the next few months if they haven't already.
While the bandwidth caps run from 150G to 250G a month, when you start figuring HD content streaming into every day internet use and game downloads people are going to hit that wall extremely quickly (stream a season of any show you want in full HD and you've maxed out your allotment for the month). The costs of exceeding those caps can be quite high, that or the provider completely cripples your connection. When people run into that physical media will begin to climb rapidly, just give it a month or so, people get really bored in Jan. and Feb.
I would just like to point out that Truth Teller made some predictions on the format war in the link to the 2008 predictions one year ago, all saying HDDVD would have many things Blu-ray wouldn't have answers to and would lead to HDDVD victory. And how many of those came true? Zip. Zilch. Zero.
What a telling comment this is. It really sheds light to the rest of your comments. You might just be the most pessimistic person I've ever encountered.
THizzle7XU thanks for reminding me of Truth Teller's 2008 prediction comments. How somebody could be so certain and so flat out wrong on just about everything escapes me.
Unless you're blind and deaf you have to be trying very hard not to hear the economic forecasts of what is about to happen - forecasts being made all over the westernised world, I might add.
Did it just pass you by all the talk of how the coming slump/recession hasn't even got going yet? (as if what we have seen so far is 'mild'!?)
Did you miss the fact that the crash of 1929 took until 1933 until the public saw the worst effects?
I can understand the barely educated game console fanboy college kids 'not knowing their a$$ from their elbow' on this stuff but I thought you were a little older & wiser than that.
If you think watching Govs all around the globe pushing billions at aspects of this problem isn't cause for some good old honest alarm & "pessimism" then I don't know what is.
When did you last see all the western Govs start to throw tends of billions of $ at a sudden problem?
The fanboys can play games hiding behind HD DVD if they like but that's just avoiding the point.
Isn't it obvious to you that blu-ray is taking off? I guess not. I truly believe that when 80% of homes are blu-ray equipped, you will probably be saying: 20% of homes aren't going for it so the format is a loser.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Truth Teller 3 @ Jan 1st 2009 2:42PM
How about these?
1) The global economy tanks with alarming severity from Q1 - Q3 of 2009
and stays flat on it's back for the rest of 2009 although by Q4 it looks like - if we are lucky -
we have seen the worst.
At the end of 2009 it is clear that this will be followed up by a horrible 2010, a year of almost no real growth and almost as bad.
2) Contrary to the hopes of the delusional college game console fanboys and flat-out plain fraudsters in the CE retailing industry, the vast bulk of US TV owners switching over to digital TV reception will do so with 'cheap-to-the-point-of-almost-being-free' set-top-boxes and are not conned into buying small HD TV sets in large numbers.
Small HD TV sets they neither really want, need nor can honestly 'see' much HD on anyways.
3) With unemployment up all over the developed world and consumer spending heavily down Blu-ray adoption continues to grow - but at such a slow rate everyone can see it missed the bus long long ago and sits as a small minority niche part of the market.
It can never become 'the next DVD' as it has failed utterly to gain even a marginally majority stake in the mass-market.
Probably (like the Samsung guy said) with about another 4 or 5 yrs left in it.
Happy new year!
Jonsson @ Jan 1st 2009 3:00PM
Truth Teller, or rather Lie Teller, everyone knows that you are pissed of because your format lost and you are now doing your best to discredit the winning format.
However, trust me, no one cares about the BS you're spewing out on this forum. Obviously you where banned at least twice so, do us all a favor and just get lost...please!
Truth Teller 3 @ Jan 1st 2009 3:08PM
Jonsson
Stop trying to hide behind HD DVD.
Your problem is that you just can't bear it that your beloved format lost too.
The state of the economy guarantees it.
Where are these lies you want to claim I've told, huh?
The economy is tanking.
Set-top box sales are huge - way bigger than the small HD TV sales numbers and are indeed overcoming the lying PR campaign the high def fanboys in retail were depending upon.
Blu-ray is staying minority niche.
All true.
But it really sticks in your craw, eh?
LMAO
Boo Radley @ Jan 1st 2009 6:21PM
Here's the problem with the digital streaming logic. A very large portion US still cannot receive boradband internet without using the painfully slow satellite options that cost in excess of $100 a month. Add to that the fact that in areas where there is broadband most providers will be instituting bandwidth caps in the next few months if they haven't already.
While the bandwidth caps run from 150G to 250G a month, when you start figuring HD content streaming into every day internet use and game downloads people are going to hit that wall extremely quickly (stream a season of any show you want in full HD and you've maxed out your allotment for the month). The costs of exceeding those caps can be quite high, that or the provider completely cripples your connection. When people run into that physical media will begin to climb rapidly, just give it a month or so, people get really bored in Jan. and Feb.
THizzle7XU @ Jan 1st 2009 6:43PM
I would just like to point out that Truth Teller made some predictions on the format war in the link to the 2008 predictions one year ago, all saying HDDVD would have many things Blu-ray wouldn't have answers to and would lead to HDDVD victory. And how many of those came true? Zip. Zilch. Zero.
Ben @ Jan 1st 2009 11:34PM
What a telling comment this is. It really sheds light to the rest of your comments. You might just be the most pessimistic person I've ever encountered.
Jonsson @ Jan 2nd 2009 3:17AM
Lie Teller, I'm not hiding behind anything. I'm just telling the facts about you.
DrXym @ Jan 2nd 2009 5:38AM
THizzle7XU thanks for reminding me of Truth Teller's 2008 prediction comments. How somebody could be so certain and so flat out wrong on just about everything escapes me.
Truth Teller 3 @ Jan 2nd 2009 8:24AM
Ben
Unless you're blind and deaf you have to be trying very hard not to hear the economic forecasts of what is about to happen - forecasts being made all over the westernised world, I might add.
Did it just pass you by all the talk of how the coming slump/recession hasn't even got going yet?
(as if what we have seen so far is 'mild'!?)
Did you miss the fact that the crash of 1929 took until 1933 until the public saw the worst effects?
I can understand the barely educated game console fanboy college kids 'not knowing their a$$ from their elbow' on this stuff but I thought you were a little older & wiser than that.
If you think watching Govs all around the globe pushing billions at aspects of this problem isn't cause for some good old honest alarm & "pessimism" then I don't know what is.
When did you last see all the western Govs start to throw tends of billions of $ at a sudden problem?
The fanboys can play games hiding behind HD DVD if they like but that's just avoiding the point.
Truth Teller 3 @ Jan 2nd 2009 11:26AM
Ooops.
That sentence should of course have read -
"When did you last see all the western Govs start to throw HUNDREDs of billions of $ at a sudden problem?"
Not tens of billions of $.
mntwister @ Jan 2nd 2009 5:58PM
Isn't it obvious to you that blu-ray is taking off? I guess not. I truly believe that when 80% of homes are blu-ray equipped, you will probably be saying: 20% of homes aren't going for it so the format is a loser.