The rumors of Blu-ray's death are greatly exaggerated
by Ben Drawbaugh 
posted Oct 30th 2008 at 8:35AM
Just like clockwork, whenever the world of digital downloads has some big news, many so called technologist start proclaiming the death of physical media; meanwhile, those who actually understand the business can't help but laugh. Those who proclaim the death of Blu-ray will one day feel as silly as those who proclaimed the death of VHS in the 90's because of the birth of VOD, because here we are over ten years later and JVC just now stopped producing stand-alone VHS decks and combo units still sell -- why, is beyond us though. The reality is that little shiny discs aren't going anywhere anytime soon, and because of the similarities between DVD and Blu-ray -- and CDs for that matter -- the possibility of Blu-ray becoming the next LaserDisc isn't likely. This is because unlike LD -- which was a very successful format by Hollywood's measure -- Blu-ray players will soon (12 to 18 months) push DVD players completely out of the market as the prices continue to diminish. While at the same time, most Blu-ray players play DVDs better than DVD players do. But regardless of DVD vs Blu-ray, what these technology pundits really mean is that the age of digital downloads is upon us and that physical media is dead. And while everyone knows that the death of physical media is inevitable, the time frame is really what's in question. We could just as easily make our own predictions, but instead of taking the risk of looking stupid, we'll quote Reed Hastings, the CEO of Netflix, who when asked if all the new streaming services would negatively affect its DVD business, responded with "the typical streaming customer differed from the typical DVD subscriber; so comparing the two wouldn't make sense."
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Bozster @ Oct 30th 2008 8:49AM
Not sure Ben but the future is looking pretty bleak. Even CNET editors who have been for Blu-Ray and been optimistic are now pretty much saying it's not great.
Robin Harris a ZDNet editor and a person who has been in data storage and media market for over 20 years raises a lot of good points.
At this point I'm fine either way but I just simply find it harder and harder to rent Blu-Rays little less buy them when I am starting to get all the sleek HD content from multiple sources. The fact that quality difference might be 10-20% in favor of Blu-Ray is really not a huge deal breaker, it's really not as if the difference between these other HD sources and Blu-Ray is night and day.
If people are satisfied with DVD upscaled, the HD versions even if lower quality then Blu-Ray are still HD.
Vudu with regular HD and HDX movies are unbelievably well executed. If you haven't tried it, I suggest you do. Waiting 4 hours for Blu-Ray quality movie rental is just as good as waiting for it in the mail if not a lot sooner depending on your connection can be done faster.
Netflix HD over Xbox 360 but definitely soon on other platforms will further create a discreprancy with Blu-Ray.
The key issue here is what HD is good enough for mainstream consumer.
Where I personally find a disconnect with HD purists is the notion that majority of people MUST HAVE uncompressed audio and 40mbps 1080p HD video stream when in fact it's the other way around. It's the niche that demands this and essentially optical media at this point is pretty limited as far as expandability. Once we get to 4k movies, we won't need to upgrade a lot of things with digital downloads. You just get a bigger movie to download, with optical media (Blu-Ray in this case) we need to reinvent the wheel again.
I think the only question that remains is how long we will wait for digital downloads to expand. I would say fast then Blu-Ray in general as many people can already use existing computer and console devices to access digital downloads, for Blu-Ray they have to buy new player as well as discs.
Just seems very backwards in today's fast paced and digital world.
Bozster @ Oct 30th 2008 9:09AM
Is there a reason why the link to the relevant article to my post was removed? I have seen other users posts urls just fine. The article is addressing exactly the topic in question.. I'm not sure why it was removed?
Ben @ Oct 30th 2008 9:10AM
Yes, we don't allow links in the comments. And no, we don't catch them all the time. Usually we delete the entire post, but when we are feeling nice we edit it out.
Paul @ Oct 30th 2008 1:31PM
"You can put up to 3 URLs in your comments."
Bozster @ Oct 30th 2008 5:04PM
I'm not sure what the rule is then. I guess I'm allowed to link articles and info that only agrees with the original post?
ChadT84 @ Oct 31st 2008 10:26AM
This is one of the most biased blogs I've seen. Especially, when it comes to Blu-ray.
Robert @ Dec 29th 2008 4:54AM
One item no one seems to discuss when it comes to HD media coming from the internet is the ISPs. Specifically, the little discussed, but increasingly popular concept, of bandwidth caps. Time Warner Cable's High Speed Internet is currently conducting a test of this in the Beaumont, TX market. Their fastest connection, 22mbs, has a bandwidth cap of only 40gb/month. That means once you've downloaded 40gb, either your internet shuts down or you pay an outrages per megabyte overage charge. (Like cell phone minutes) With your average Blu-ray movie using more than 20gb, and as high as 40gb, you could burn an entire months worth of internet watching a single HD movie. I believe much of this has to do with the increased internet traffic overloading the coax cable supplying the connection. When FiOS becomes more common this may not be an issue, but it took 50 years to lay all the coax cable currently used. So, who knows how long it will be before FiOS has widespread availability.
The other issue I think of is why is 5 years till bluray is replaced such a bad thing? Consdier that in 1997 DVD was first released in the U.S. and didn't get mainstream popularity until early 2000. So essentially DVD has existed for a little over a decade but only been popular for around 8 years. Bluray format was finalized in 2004 and is now starting to see popularity. Sure other formats are in research and development, but remember that the blue laser optical format was first tested in 2000. Just as DVD's were becoming popular. Considering the pace of technological advancements, a 5 to 10 year span of popularity is expected. Just as the lifespan of the next media will probably also be replaced just as quickly.
My point is, a person could say that I'm not paying for something that is going to be replaced in 10 years, and those people are probably still watching black and white 12 inch TV's with an analog antenna on the roof.
Multi-format-mayhem @ Oct 30th 2008 8:57AM
The tech news is full of tales of Blu-ray's disappointing performance & it's coming demise right now.
Whether that's actually true or not is hardly the point right now.
It's the impression it creates amongst the wider general public and here Blu-ray has a serious image problem along with a series of unhappy circumstances which will do nothing to help it.
Not only are the benefits Blu-ray can offer highly marginal for those with small 720p/1080i HD TVs and who do not have some fairly high-end audio kit but there is also the unlucky 'x-factor' at work here.
A global recession & a mass-market already seriously indebted.
The general public across the 'western world' face the forced belt-tightening this recession is bound to impose.
Then factor in the highly relevant point that savings are at an all-time low and most are already right up to their necks in debt.
A mass take-up of the relatively expensive Blu-ray format is highly unlikely in in these circumstances.
By the time the economies pick up again it will be too late - especially as Govs across the west are planning to use additional public spending on infrastructure projects as a means of reducing the most severe aspects of the recession/credit crunch.
This is particularly relevant here as it means optic fibre projects just got a huge boost and will bring forward the day when digital downloading is widespread, convenient and fast.
Blu-ray's a niche product and staying niche, it may well only have the 5yrs the Samsung guy mentioned.
Get over it.
chuckdaly @ Oct 30th 2008 9:05AM
Blu-ray is a great format. There is a huge difference between BD and DVD in audio and picture quality. These facts have nothing to do with its success or failure. Remember, BD movies have less features and do not look any better than HD-DVDs and the BD players still are more expensive, yet HD-DVD failed. We live in a "Good Enough" society and when their crappy HDTV doesn't yield much difference between DVD and Broadcast HD, why would you expect them to spend more money on BD? We are in a recession, headed toward a deep recession, so why would consumers not say that DVD is "Good enough". During this time, Cable TVs On-Demand services are growing more and more popular. Wait, AppleTV, Vudu, Xbox Live, and PS3 Online, all offer movie downloading. Broadband is getting cheaper, and even a slow HD movie download is faster than the USPS mail service for Netflix or driving to the video rental store.
Your rant never gave one piece of evidence to prove your case. You just backed up one assumption with another as if it were true. Here are some facts: Internet speeds are getting faster and cheaper, The catalog of HD-downloads is growing faster than the catalog of Blu-ray disc. All BD titles sold in the US last year were less than any single DVD title in the top 5. All BD titles sold in the UK last year were less than the amount BD players (including PS3s) out in that market, meaning BD sell less than videogames which are twice as expensive.
BD's presence in the market is growing fast, its growth is slow, and its marketshare compared with DVD is nil. You don't know anything about consumer electronics if you don't expect someone to walk through this huge window of opportunity.
squiggleslash @ Oct 30th 2008 9:15AM
In fairness, HD DVD "failed" because Warner pulled its support, and Warner pulled its support because it decided to go with the format that had the most exclusive studio support. With both formats at that point having relatively few sales in terms of standalone players, the consumer was pretty much out of the loop as far as that decision went.
But I do agree that "good enough" is what's going to be the decider here. HD DVRs + HD cable, coupled with numerous download services that are getting better all the time, is where people are heading and likely to spend their money. The choice right now is not between SD and HD video discs. It's between convenience and higher quality. And, really, honestly, I think as long as the more convenient option is "good enough" quality, it'll win over high quality, especially if it feels like it's free.
I now have more HD movies on the hard drive bolted onto my Dish Network DVR than I have HD DVDs. I still buy the occasional HD DVD, but over-all my DVD and HD video disc purchasing habits have gone from "two-to-four a month" to "once in a blue moon".
And I haven't even bought a streaming media box yet. Hulu et al hasn't announced a way to stream to standalone media boxes. The options that aren't Blu-ray are growing by the day.
Marshall @ Oct 30th 2008 9:12AM
VHS had been on the market for 10 years when VOD came along, plus VHS could record content and was equivalently priced. Blu-ray came to market at about the same time as downloads, for a greater price. Your analogy doesn't work.
For a detailed explanation of why Blu-ray is dead in the water, and why DVDs and downloads will rule the roost, listen to episode 42 of the Real HT Info Podcast.
Marshall
Big Wizz @ Oct 30th 2008 9:49AM
Don't know about DVD vs. Blu-ray, but I do know about D/L's vs. physical discs.
Every D/L service that I know of charges some kind of fee. Whether it be a monthly service fee, a flat fee per movie, whatever. And there lies the problem.
**You have to pay multiple times for the opportunity to watch the same movie**
Take Batman Begins. I probably watch it at least once every month or two. With physical format (DVD or Blu), I bought it once and can watch to my heart's content, as many times as I want for a ONE TIME purchase fee.
Now let's say I didn't buy it on disc, but want to watch it with a D/L service. I have Xbox Live, so I can d/l the HD version for roughly $6. That buys me unlimited watches, but for only 24hrs. After that, I've got to plunk down another $6. And again, and again.
Now, let me say that I subscribe to Netflix and fully intend to take advantage of the HD streaming to my Xbox in November. However, for those movies that I know I'll watch multiple times, I will BUY those on Blu.
People say D/L provide a convenience to people, which is true. But you damn sure pay for that convenience, don'tcha?
Gus @ Oct 30th 2008 9:04PM
Your analogy about 'Batman Begins' is exactly why blu ray will remain niche IMO.
DLs are the future for the new tech savy, very disposable younger 'ME' generation that is fast becoming the main buying force in the modern economy. Discs are soooo yesterday, that's what the 'oldies' had.
IMO the main stream will embrace DLs/streaming as the convenient, modern and 'cooool' way of the future and disc media will be purchased by the oldies or perhaps by the ME generation for an absolute favorite like 'Batman Begins'.
To a large extent, that is exactly the trend we are seeing with the PS3 crowd that controls BD sales, plenty of interest on a huge action favorite, but forget the rest.
Earl @ Nov 12th 2008 7:26PM
Movie downloads should worry the Blockbusters and Hollywood Videos of the world -- but Wal-Mart, Best Buy, and amazon shouldn't worry about not selling Blu-Ray discs. Discs are far from dead, no matter what some people with rose-colored glasses may say.
Look, the "disposable younger 'ME' generation" -- at least those that are pre-teens -- wants to watch Pixar movies about 1,000 times each. Do you really want to pay even 99cents each time your kids want to watch Cars or Finding Nemo? Of course not -- you're going to buy them. DVD will be "good enough" for most people, for a while, but once mom and dad upgrade to a Blu-Ray player they'll buy ALL the new movies on Blu-Ray. They won't rent (via store or download) those movies -- it would just cost too much.
And that's the fundamental flaw with the downloading model. As long as downloading = PPV, it won't take off completely. It will be successful, just as the rental stores and those new kiosks at McDonalds are successful, but they wont REPLACE sales. I'd rather spend $5 in the discount bin to buy a movie I might only watch a couple times than to spend $1-$6 to download the same movie, and have to pay all over again if I decide I want to watch it more than once -- and I'm absolutely certain I'm not alone in that desire.
Anybody remember DivX, and why it failed? Does anybody else thing movie downloading sounds a lot like that same failed business model -- but with higher storage costs for the consumer (in exchange for not having to go to an actual store to "buy" the disc)?
WebDev511 @ Oct 30th 2008 9:50AM
If Blu-Ray players and media are priced within 10% of DVD in the next 6-12 months then it has a chance of avoiding niche format status.
Yes, it IS the economy stupid. What people fail to remember is that the market crash of 1929 came 2 years before The Great Depression. Things move a bit faster now, but I think it's safe to say that the real hurt isn't going to show up, gosh, 6-12 months. Once it does, anything that isn't really firmly established is going to have a hard time adopting more penny pinching consumers.
Like I've said so many times before, so long as the studios maintain the highest quality transfers and top notch audio/video encodes, I'll be happy.
mitchelljd @ Oct 30th 2008 5:06PM
well, i think Blu-Ray is starting to pick up momentum now. obviously there is a bias for those in tech fields to push digital downloads.
which i do believe there is a place for, but sometimes you want mobility and to be able to enjoy on the go. which is not offered at all right now through downloads
Ken H @ Oct 30th 2008 10:03AM
First off, kudos to Ben D. for discussing such an important topic. While I may not always agree with his opinion, it's the argument that counts. Again, many thanks.
IMHO, it isn't that BR is failing as much as it's not winning in a landslide. There are simply too many choices to consumers - BR, DVD, upscaling DVD, upscaled VOD, VOD in HD, Vudu HD/HDX, Hulu HD, NetFlix HD, P2P HD downloads (cannot ignore this), and more...
For a format to win, Joe-Six-Pack, the average consumer, wants to invest in something that is convenient, easy to use, has lots of entertainment choices and will last at LEAST 5 years. With so many choices and no clear winner in the HD realm, staying with DVD is a SAFER (and cheaper) choice to J6P.
I find it ironic that Hollywood, in its infinite greed and lack of wisdom, is actually prolonging this state of confusion or lack of a clear HD winner. I suppose that they feel that they win either way. It would be in their interest to promote a scaled solution - maybe buy/rent the VOD/download to watch first. Then buy the BR to get the best presentation and all the extra stuff.
To the pundits, stop calling for the sky to fall and point out what is needed to win "the war" for a format - or better yet - to win for consumers.
-KLH
Ben @ Oct 30th 2008 10:09AM
Thanks for the kind words Ken.
I agree, but I think the most important thing you pointed out is that Hollywood feels they will win either way. That is totally the case and but I don't think they are any more greedy than most Americans. I fully expect them to try to look for a way to make as much money as possible from their investments. So as soon as they can figure out how to make more money on digital delivery than physical media, Blu-ray will be dead. But ultimately it is their delivery method to kill.
Personally I think anyone who chooses downloads over discs right now, might want to think twice. Because they are buying into Hollywood's dreams of a world where we'd have to pay each time we watch a movie.
wreckedchevy @ Oct 30th 2008 10:12AM
they've always won and will always continue too regardless of format... i'm sure they would be exstatic (except sony) if a new format popped up down the road so they can charge a premium again for older movies
mda3333 @ Oct 30th 2008 10:09AM
The "good enough" idea is what I've said all alone. My inlaws can't even run their flat panel TV, let alone know or care about BD. Almost all cable and satellite service offer VOD and PPV. These have now gone HD. People will wait for the download if it means not leaving the house. A 1080p movie means nothing to the 80% of all flat panel owners who have a 720p set. And for those that have nothing better in their lives to do but watch the same movie over and over, either get a hooby or HBO!!
eric53110 @ Oct 30th 2008 10:34AM
Here's another thing that worries me about D/L any kind of HD content:
Internet providers placing D/L caps on my service!!
So until I can get it written in stone that they won't cap my bandwidth, I'm sticking to Blu-Ray.
mitchelljd @ Oct 30th 2008 5:09PM
definitely, the limits Comcast and Time Warner are placing in some test markets are a serious threat to those who enjoy digital downloads and slingbox.
Gunnar @ Oct 30th 2008 2:13PM
The real question is why do the digital downloads apologists constantly compare 5 buck rentals with actual purchases and pretend as if they were the same?
The CEO of Netflix is correct when he says streaming and physical rentals are really two different markets. DVD rentals and DVD purchases are very different markets as well. DVD rentals and sales have coexisted (and prospered) quite peacefully for the last 10 years so there is no reason to believe that everyone who prefers to own their content will stop buying and start paying 4 bucks a pop every time they want to watch one of their favorite movies.
And since the studios seem quite content to charge 15 bucks a pop for crappy quality, DRM’d movies they sell on Amazon and iTunes I see no reason to think they will give us such a deal when theyfinally get around to selling HD movies in this way. 20-25 dollars would be my guess and that’s no deal at all compared to the discounts you can get on blu-ray discs these days. Notice Apple brags about how many 1.99 TV shows they have sold and how many 2.99 movies they have rented but they never talk about the 15 dollar movies they are trying to sell.
DRM is fine on a rental (in fact it’s necessary) and I will rent the occasional Apple TV HD movie. But until digital movie purchases are sold DRM-free there is no way I’m messing with them. I suspect that others who like to purchase a lot of their movies will feel the same.
JimmyStewart @ Oct 30th 2008 10:46AM
I've got to agree with the entire post. The rumors aren't just greatly exaggerated they're completely baseless. Blu-Ray sales have been increasing at a very healthy rate. Huge releases like Hulk and Iron Man smashed records and for the first time really put a dent in DVD sales. IIRC correctly Iron Man on Blu-Ray made up 20% of the purchases. That's staggering for a title that requires both a new TV set and a new player. It was staggering when DVD pulled the same feat early on and that only required a new player. An early death for Blu-Ray is simply non-existent.
I also really disagree that Blu-Ray has an image problem to the general consumer. I do see one on tech related boards, there does seem to be a very vocal group of people who seem to like to try and create news stories about Blu-Ray failing. My favorites are those that claim no one is buying the Blu-Ray players and then in small print they mention that they're excluding PS3 sales, far and away the leading Blu-Ray player purchase (I bought two for Blu-Ray playback only).
The thing is these sites are related to folks like us. The heavy tech users. The average people aren't reading these baseless claims. When I talk to the people I know and suggest that the future may be in digital downloads I get blank stares. The general population still wants to hold a physical product. They want to buy a movie and own it, not "rent" a movie "ON DEMAND". Sure VOD is great and it might eat into the DVD rental business, but it's not going to replace purchases. The other fear I constantly hear is that digitally distributed content is entirely dependent on whatever platform you're buying it on. For example, if you "buy" a movie on the PS3 and then you stop using the system the movie does not transfer with you. Also the recent "delisting" of items (MK2 on the PSN store being an example) where purchased items cannot be re-downloaded once Sony decides to remove them. There's simply no real control over the content, and the average consumers aren't tech savy enough to tolerate buying a movie at full price and not being able to watch it how they see fit.
It really seems more like there's this small vocal group of tech savy people out there who are bound and determined to see the format fail. As the format seems to be gaining a wider acceptance and is smashing sales records constantly (just wait for the Dark Knight) these people want to keep pretending that digital distribution is a real option. In a world where download caps are becoming more and more common for ISPs digital distribution seems to be the only "new" format in trouble. But all in all I think it's time we stop discussing it. It's great to see this post, being one of the few speaking rationally. Blu-Ray is doing fine and all these guesses that it will fail based on no factual evidence and just a general "feeling" these people seem to have is ridiculous.
Mark @ Oct 30th 2008 11:38AM
"I also really disagree that Blu-Ray has an image problem to the general consumer. I do see one on tech related boards, there does seem to be a very vocal group of people who seem to like to try and create news stories about Blu-Ray failing."
Very vocal and very disgruntled. The majority of critics appear to be ex-HD DVD owners.
Herestoabetterworld @ Oct 30th 2008 10:59AM
Thank You Ben, and I also appreciate all the other "less-informed" opinions that Blu will dissapear , But let's be real for a minute - the truth is - as consumers, having choices on whether we download (and pay every time for "lite-HD") or buy the disk and enjoy for life - we all win! and as soon as all channels are all HD and they fix the sound problems (commercials that blow out your ear drums - then the movie comes back on all quiet!) plus the problem of changing betwen PCM and Dolby Digital. We as consumers will have it made - and we as filmakers can film in HD and know it will only be seen in HD. WIN - WIN
So lets all stop fighting - instead invite each other to BBQ/Movie night - get drunk - make love - and focus on whats really important BETTER CONTENT! Cus right now when you get a chance to watch TV - it's hit or miss. And it should always be a hit!
Eric @ Oct 30th 2008 10:59AM
It's simple. The Cable companies stand in the way of digital downloads being successful. And as the latter becomes more ubiquitous, the more the former will try to extort users to pay for the bandwidth they already paid for!
Non-technological issues will always trump technological advances.
Jason W @ Oct 30th 2008 11:04AM
How many people only buy movies they are going to watch multiple times? I use to buy disc I was interested in seeing and then shelve them if they were not up to the hype that made me want to see them. Now, I VOD or Netflix them. If they suck then I still only pay $9.00 a month VS several DVDs or BR or HDDVDs a month and loving only maybe one every 3 months or all.
VOD will continue to hurt the physical media. And lets not forget some people get their Netflix DVDS and then burn them. Now I dont do that but others do and this does cost the movie industry massive money. With a depression or recession comming you dont think that will grow and hurt the luxary market that is BR?
Gunnar @ Oct 30th 2008 2:13PM
How many people only buy movies they are going to watch multiple times? I use to buy disc I was interested in seeing and then shelve them if they were not up to the hype that made me want to see them.
Judging from the explosion of DVD sales over the last 8 years in spite of the fact that all those same movies were also available for rental at the same time I’d say LOTS of people have all sorts of reasons they buy movies. They might be film buffs or collectors, they might have kids who watch movies over and over, they might prefer to pass the discs on to their friends and family to enjoy, they might appreciate the ability to resell it, or they simply like the convenience and simplicity of sticking a disc in and pressing play. Don’t assume that your experience, as a geek who keeps on top of tech blogs and jumps on to the next big thing with no looking back, is the universal one. Neither you nor I are representative of the mainstream which drives the majority of movies sales and rentals.
The film industry long ago realized that rentals do not kill sales and sales do not kill rentals. They are separate markets and together they make up about half of any given movie’s revenue.
Jason W @ Oct 30th 2008 11:06AM
And as for the "have it for life" argument how many people still listen to music on a 8 track or watch movies on a real to real projector? Tapes, MiniDisc, LP, 45, 78? Not many. Every decade something comes along to move things along and change the way we watch movies. With 3d sets comming along all these movies will be outdated in the future.
wozza @ Oct 30th 2008 11:23AM
The VHS/Blu-ray comparison also doesn't work because VHS didn't require the upgrade of the TV set as well as purchasing the media player.
And because there was no near 30-year history of recorded media available to the consumer when VHS came out. DVD was such a leap from tape that many consumers will be more than happy with that quality for some time to come. Blu-ray, while allowing fantastic quality, isn't a paradigm-shifter - it's just fancier DVD to most people right now.
Downloads are significantly different and ARE a paradigm shift in convenience to the consumer. They offer a quantum leap in convenience: no schlepping to the stores to buy it, no need to fill up shelves with plastic boxes, no need to load the disk in the player...
To be honest, why should any of us care whether blu-ray lives or dies as long as equivalent quality is available by some means?
Ben @ Oct 30th 2008 11:25AM
Blu-ray players have SD outputs too, so in a year or two when J6P goes to the store to pick up a DVD player and there are only Blu-ray players for $89, he'll buy one and take it home and be happy. Then when he goes to buy or rent a movie he'll have a choice. Now if you want to debate what that choice will be, we most certainly can. But one thing is for sure, he's still be in the physical media world, not digital downloads.
The fact is that downloads are a bigger step for J6P and the added confusion and lack of backwards compatibility with all his DVD (vudu and ATV don't play DVDs) will be in play.
Gus @ Oct 30th 2008 9:25PM
I'm betting in 12-18 months, hell anytime within the next 5 years, there will always be at least a Toshiba DVD player to be purchased anywhere and everywhere!
Mark @ Oct 30th 2008 11:30AM
Of course the rumors are exaggerated. Blu-ray has some extremely impressive sales gains recently and that's even before counting all the people will be buying players between black friday and Christmas. The percent share is only going to go up for the forseeable future. Sales of The Dark Knight are going to be crazy.
Digital downloads? It might eventually be the future but only when the industry rallies around a single industry wide file format so that people can buy content with confidence. For the time being forget it.
UnnDunn @ Oct 30th 2008 11:35AM
"Blu-ray players will soon (12 to 18 months) push DVD players completely out of the market as the prices continue to diminish."
Wow. Ben, what you're saying is every portable DVD player, every backseat player, every DVD/VHS combo, every computer DVD drive on the market will be replaced by Blu-ray. In 12-18 months. Gee, we know you have a hard-on for Blu-ray, but this is ridiculous. And making such a ridiculous premise the linchpin of your argument shows just how far out to lunch you are.
You claim that VHS has stuck around this long, therefore Blu-ray will have similar staying power. But then you turn around and claim DVD is utterly, utterly doomed, despite it being by any measure, far more popular than Blu-ray. Your rationale? Falling prices and the fact that Blu-ray players also play DVDs.
Never mind that Blu-ray is tied to HDTV adoption which makes it impractical for use in portable or backseat players. Never mind that the hardware licensing is a bag of hurt, or the whole Profiles mess is confusing consumers more than the format war ever did. And never mind that 'Joe the Plumber' just plain doesn't give a shit about Blu-ray, even if he does own an HDTV.
Hell, let's ignore the obvious precedent of SACD vs. iTunes. Everyone thought SACD would be the next big thing in music listening after it killed DVDA. And look what became of that.
The idea that the entire industry will shift wholesale to Blu-ray in a massive tidal wave is just preposterous to me. There is NOTHING to suggest that Blu-ray is anything more than a niche format. Maybe not as small a niche as LaserDisc, but still a niche.
Ben @ Oct 30th 2008 11:44AM
I suppose I should be used to people twisting my words around to mean whatever they want, but I don't think anyone ever gets used to that.
I never said that all DVD players would be replaced in 12 to 18 months. What I meant -- and I assume you know this and are just trying to annoy me -- is that stand-alone player that are used to play movies will not be very hard to find. And of course this does not include portable players, combos and car players.
I believe most consumers see Blu-ray as a HD version of DVD, and based on the success of upconvert DVD players, there is a demand -- can you even buy a stand-alone DVD player that doesn't have HDMI anymore?
Again, Blu-ray plays back great on SDTVs, just as DVD players play great on B&W TVs.
As for audio, don't even try it, it just isn't the same. If it was, there wouldn't be so many cheapo HTIBs on the market and there would be just as many CD rental stores as there are Movie rental stores.
You are right, "The idea that the entire industry will shift wholesale to Blu-ray in a massive tidal wave is just preposterous" because it is. And so is the idea that the entire industry will shift to downloads in a massive tidal wave.
Rob Thomas @ Oct 30th 2008 11:46AM
You've forgotten to include...facts.
A Blu-ray player (such as a PS3) will work with an SDTV. The film will be displayed a lower resolution of course, but will still be an improvement. BD players which will play both DVD and BD can simply replace DVD players at home, in the car, for computer use, and anything else you can think of.
UnnDunn @ Oct 30th 2008 11:47AM
And I want to be clear: I don't WANT Blu-ray to die, I think there needs to be a disc-based, mass-market, high-quality movie distribution format. I just don't think Blu-ray has what it takes to become that format. Especially the "mass-market" part.
UnnDunn @ Oct 30th 2008 11:57AM
"I never said that all DVD players would be replaced in 12 to 18 months. What I meant -- and I assume you know this and are just trying to annoy me -- is that stand-alone player that are used to play movies will not be very hard to find. And of course this does not include portable players, combos and car players."
That's not what you wrote. You didn't write anything CLOSE to that. You made a blanket statement, which I quoted, and that blanket statement is what got me steamed enough to comment the way I did. You need to make yourself a lot clearer in future if you're going to walk the line on a divisive issue like this.
Of course Blu-ray standalone players will be a lot easier to find and somewhat more popular in future. One would have to be a blinkered fanboy to deny that. In that context, there is no reason why Blu-ray won't find some measure of success.
Larry @ Oct 30th 2008 11:45AM
The future is certainly dim for Blu-Ray. With Netflix signing more and more distribution on existing entertainment devices I think the writing is on the wall. Apple, Microsoft, all the major movie studios, Netflix, Amazon, etc all have a stake in delivering download services to consumers. At the moment the only people who keep insisting Blu-Ray has a future are audiophiles and bored PS3 owners.
With the money I save by not buying a Blu-Ray player I can buy/rent dozens of on demand moves or afford at least a years worth of streaming from Netflix with having to pay extra for movies.
Ben @ Oct 30th 2008 11:46AM
Nice job, there is always at least a few who just comment without actually reading the post. I'd like to refer you to the last line, and maybe you can add comment that is relative to the topic at hand.
Larry @ Oct 30th 2008 11:56AM
Ben, did you read it? Your quote mentions DVD, the market leader, and the dominate force for years not the upstart Blu-Ray format trying to get ahead. You can't use that quote to justify the success of Blu-Ray it only shows his confidence in DVD. I believe Netflix has also said they don't think Blu-Ray will have much effect on their bottom line as well.
lee @ Oct 30th 2008 11:49AM
Remember this, most people do not have the technical skill to use digital downloads. They will not be able to setup the equipment very easily, Blu ray goes out of the box and connects right to the TV. Simple and easy. I am not saying digital downloads are not the future. I believe they are but we are not there yet. When there is some kind of winner with all this set top boxes then perhaps the digital download will take over. Right now there are just too many choices and no real quality standards. Blu-ray sound and pictures quality are second to none. You will not get that from a download at this point. Don't forget a large number of people with PS3 do not even realize it is a blu ray player. PS3 sales are picking up and I think you will see blu ray sales pick up as well. I for one do not want to wait 4 hrs to download a movie so I can watch it.
Larry @ Oct 30th 2008 11:59AM
I am sure people said the same "its too complicated" argument before Apple brought their iTunes music store. After looking at the latest run through videos for Microsoft's new dashboard the whole process looks easy to me. Certainly trying to plug in a Blu-Ray player and get the latest firmware would be equally as daunting.
Steve @ Oct 30th 2008 11:55AM
All I can say is "Blu-ray is here to stay for a long time....". 80% of my movie collection are Blu-ray. I don't ever buy DVDs anymore. At Blockbuster, Blu-ray rentals have tripled with more shelf space since it started. My friends are buying Blu-ray players...I don't foresee Blu-ray going away anytime soon.
comptr @ Oct 30th 2008 12:29PM
I totally agree with you. I have exactly done the same thing. I stopped purchasing SD dvd's and only buy blu-ray.
Gus @ Oct 30th 2008 9:31PM
Yip, well that makes 2.
KS @ Oct 30th 2008 11:58AM
anyone who enjoys digital download know better than that, if the physical media were to die, it would've of already, since dvd is still kicking and screaming this theory is dead wrong.
Rob Thomas @ Oct 30th 2008 12:04PM
The PQ and AQ of digital downloads are inferior to Blu-ray. It's just that simple. Blu-ray is simply superior. The negative comments are more than likely coming from those who can't afford an HDTV, let alone a Blu-ray player. It's fueled by jealousy.
Gus @ Oct 30th 2008 9:37PM
Get your hand off it, it's that sort of ignorant arrogant BS that has turned many against the elitist image of a deliberately overpriced format that is blu ray! It might have less picture quality, that will change with time, but it is a shit load more convenient and cheaper and way more cool for the younger generation who will embrace it in volume!