Engadget HD Podcast Roundtable - Downloads vs Discs
With all the excitement around the latest news in the world of digital downloads, we though we'd take a cue from our good friends at gdgt.com and hold a roundtable on the subject. Rather than choose other professionals on the subject for the panel, we reached out to fans of digital downloads to get real world impressions of what is actually out there. We get deep into the why people want downloads, why the market has yet to reach the masses, and finally, we all make our predictions of when we think Blu-ray Discs will be like VHS is today. So if you have strong feelings about the future of discs, you're going to really love this.Get the podcast
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Hosts: Ben Drawbaugh and Steve Kim
Guests:
Eddie Valenzuela of Apple TV Junkie
Jon Ogden, a Vudu evangelist
Tyler Pruitt of Format War Central
Producer: Trent Wolbe
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Chris @ Oct 30th 2008 4:56PM
Hi,
Your MP3 download is pointing to this week's podcast 108 not the round table discussion.
Joe Nace @ Oct 30th 2008 5:18PM
Hello,
I think the other reason why people don't go the Apple TV or Vudu route is because most people don't have an internet plug behind there tv. For your average Joe the Plumber this would be more of an inconvience. I mean personally I think this very issue is going to sway me towards a blu ray player. I just don't really feel like going through all the hassle of putting an internet plug behind my tv. Great podcast!
Joe N
Marshall @ Oct 30th 2008 6:09PM
Doesn't blu-ray want you to use an "internet plug" as well? You know, for firmware updates when your $30 discs won't play?
Joe Nace @ Oct 31st 2008 2:09AM
Marshall,
I see your point about the blu ray players and I would want to update them for sure. I wouldn't install a plug just for that though. Plus, I'm not really into all the blu-ray connectivity features. I just want to watch hi def movies and that's it. In my case I would just drag a long cat5 cable temporarily from my router to my player to do the updates.
Joe N
ChadT84 @ Oct 31st 2008 10:02AM
You might as well go ahead and run a cable down the wall for internet. It seems everything will eventually be connected to the web.
David S @ Oct 31st 2008 10:26AM
Apple TV has 802.11n support.
aaron @ Oct 31st 2008 9:25AM
any chance somebody will post a link to that lost xbox, ota, master screenshots? Ive never see that comparison before.....
David S @ Oct 31st 2008 10:35AM
Great for a first roundtable. Thank you! Please do more.
Joe Maki @ Oct 31st 2008 1:56PM
Bens, comment about disk media lasting another 30+ years is skewed. Video Tape has only really had competition from another format for the last 10 years. So it took 10 years to kill it off. Discs will disappear when broadband internet access is universal (or a lot greater than today). 8 - 10 years?
minimalist @ Nov 1st 2008 9:23AM
DVD's/BD's will disappear completely when:
1. Studios finally sell SD and or HD content without DRM at reasonable prices which can be easily backed up, and which can played on a whole variety of manufacturers devices.
2. Everyone now over the age of 40 stops buying content or dies off.
Until then, physical media (especially video) has a fairly long life left. Even CD's are not "dead" yet and its been overt a decade since many of us have bought one so dont; expect DVD's or Blu-rays to die off anytime soon. Our tech bubble is not representative of ALL mainstream consumers and those consumers are still a very significant source of revenue for content companies. It may not be sexy or futuristic to sell physical media but its still largely where the money is.
Digital downloads may catch on very quickly as a rental model but ownership will stay largely in the physical realm until the above two conditions have been met.
James T @ Oct 31st 2008 9:36PM
appletv, vudu, etc will all be dead in 10 to 15 years. Displays will do everything without boxes within the next 5 years.
GT1Boy @ Oct 31st 2008 9:46PM
I enjoyed your discussion. I have a question...which of the devices discussed support closed captions or English subtitles for the hearing impared? My wife is partially deaf and lack of support for subtitles in the Amazon on TiVo and Xbox video download services have kept us from purchasing or renting content from them. I'd also definitely switch from Blockbuster to Netflix if Netflix Instant Queue streaming on the Xbox 360 or TiVo supported subtitles.
I'm sadly old enough to remember "Top Gun" as being the first new release VHS movie to be priced for sale directly to the consumer back in early '87 for $26. It also contained a Diet Pepsi commercial before the movie to help reduce the price.
Thanks for another informative podcast.
Chris @ Nov 1st 2008 12:06PM
Loved the podcast. Great topic. Of the ones you covered the one with the best change is the Blu-Ray. Other than the connect issue it is the easiest one for the average person to setup and use is the Blu-Ray. It is the closest to DVD, which was the closest to VHS. The issue with al these are the average people. They have a hard time with a computer, do not know who to use a DVR and only have a cable connection and most would not even have a digital cable box if the cable companies did not force them to. It is all about cost and ease of use for all of them.
Depending on your age (I am 38) most of my friends do not even have a DVR or if they do they just got it and there parents no way. For most people I know my age that do have a DVR or Blu-Ray, we watch way more TV than the other people and car about things like HD and 5.1 sound quality but we are way in the minority.
The next group the people coming out of college and younger are still not going to by these. They are the internet age. The netlfix and laptop age. The thing that I think will be bigger is streaming like the Nexflix idea, either to your laptop or with a connection to your tv. But even this a long way off.
The only way to get any of these to the masses and to be the next thing is through the cable or satellite companies and their boxes. Not even TIVO since the average person would never by one, unless it is through the cable company. What would also work is Netflix on a Directv box.
The average person or family will never buy these. It is just to much of a hassle and cost.
Big Sam @ Nov 1st 2008 8:43PM
I agree with Ben. I think physical media has a very long life left. Some people like to own a tangible copy of a movie. And there are far more technically challenged people who may never comfortably buy (or rent) a movie online. Hell there are still some people who don't even have internet access at home and don't have plans to get it.
THizzle7XU @ Nov 2nd 2008 12:09PM
I have to agree as well. I know people use the music industry as an analogy, but movies are different. People never really gathered around a stereo at once to listen to music. But people bring over discs all the time to watch a movie, or borrow them from friends, etc. Downloads are great, but until all of them use the Netflix model to the point where you can get everything in high quality anywhere (i.e. everyone has a Netflix movie player) and not have to pay for every play and DRM free, etc, discs are the way to go.
Declan @ Nov 1st 2008 9:55PM
I am not so sure that Blu-ray is our last physical media. TV manufactures do not want to go back to the days when you buy a TV and keep it for 15-20 years. Since the debut of HD sets, manufactures have been working hard improving the technology and resolution at a record pace. Most of us here have probably already replaced out main TV once or twice in the last 7yrs.
Now they are working on 2k and 4k sets. Granted they are early in the game here, but in five years you will see consumer product. With that being said, a new physical media will be needed to handle the demands for 2k-4k resolution. Furthermore, our internet bandwidth will not be up to snuff to handle that type of file sizes. (unless you want to wait two days to watch a movie)
Just my two cents.
minimalist @ Nov 2nd 2008 10:09AM
And where are mainstream consumers going to find space to fit these 2K or 4K sets? 1080 is already overkill for half the HDTV's sold. Only the 42"-60" sets really benefit from that resolution. 2K would likely require people to sit ridiculously close to a ridiculously large screens to actually see anything. For 4K You'd pretty much have to have a wall sized TV in your living room.
And since hardware manufacturers, cable systems and broadcasters have already made huge investments to feed our new TV's with 720 and 1080 signals don't expect them to jump ship for 2K and 4K standards anytime soon.
Just because somebody builds a big ass 2K or 4K set to claim they have the biggest or best TV at a electronics show booth does not mean those are coming soon to the average consumer .
celestialrob @ Nov 2nd 2008 3:01PM
The round table was the best and most interesting podcast in ages - please do more.
Huge thanks
Rob
minimalist @ Nov 2nd 2008 6:41PM
I agree about the success of the round table podcast. Good stuff. Having the true believers rationally defend their content delivery system of choice was interesting.
But it might be good to have a second roundtable on the same topic with guests who really understand how the industry works and discuss the technological, economical, and political hurdles each system (BD, VOD, downloads, and streaming) faces.
Declan @ Nov 2nd 2008 8:53PM
For a better idea of what a 2-4k television looks like that does not require a full wall look here:
http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/15/sharps-4k-x-2k-64-inch-ultra-high-res-monitor/
I can see myself buying this in 5 years.
minimalist @ Nov 2nd 2008 11:01PM
Who watches movies this close to their TV set? Yeah you can get up and go look at a still frame and ooh and ah but it that really worth thousands of extra dollars when the net result of watching a movie from a normal viewing distance will be pretty much the same as regular old 1080?
The difference between 1080 and 720 is already hard enough for me to discern on a 46" TV sitting 8 feet away. According to the CarltonBale.com Viewing distance v. screen size chart you'd have to be sitting less than 5 feet away from a 62 inch TV to even notice resolution higher than 1440. Make that 2K and give yourself an average viewing distance of about 10 feet and you'd need a minimum of a 10 foot diagonal screen).
These higher resolutions simply aren't going to get much traction except amongst the ultra rich.
Declan @ Nov 3rd 2008 2:37PM
I understand your points minimalist, however, what counts is the perception of the viewer. If you read Ryan Block's impressions of the Sharp he can easily see the difference between it and a 1080p television. His quote "for those of us that have a hard enough time telling the difference between 720 and 1080, let us tell you that once you've seen Sharp's 62-inch 4k x 2k, there's no going back." This pretty much sums up the potential.
As far as cost, of course it will be prohibitively expensive in the beginning, what it isn't in technology.
Larry @ Nov 4th 2008 3:26PM
Good Show. You guys went off on little tangents, but overall you kept to the topic well enough.
I think an important was made when you said it is important where you are coming from to the new formats. If your a On Demand cable customer Netflix is going to be very desirable. The more people convert to DVRs the less likely they will care about a physical format. It also matter if your a movie person or a television person. Television people will are probably more receptive to digital.
keith @ Nov 4th 2008 4:03PM
I do feel that everyone is missing the point on all of this. We can take polls til we are blue in the face but it isn't going to change anything. Overall, I personally feel that there will be numerous vehicles for watching media, but HD & SD via download, NETFLIX, extenders, and blu-ray discs. Long gone are the days of standardization. Why? Greed! Pure & Simple.
However from that greed we will get a variety of way to watch, download, buy our media, which may not be a bad thing unless of course the format you pick doesn't make it. So my prediction for the future is Blu-Ray, Extenders, Service Providers (both cable, satel, Netflix, etc..). What we currenlty have going on now will all last in one form or another, including Blu-Ray. Despite its short comings its a heavily invested medium and a very tangible product (it can be sold on shelves, you can hold it in your hands)
I think you should have a poll as to what formats will last and which ones won't. What services do you see making it over the long haul and which ones you don't.
Our real concern is not buying products that have a new codec format, new delivery format, etc... You will have to let it get established.
Blu-Ray is established (although sales are slower than anticipated)
NETFLIX - established
Most of the others... semi established.
The future holds numerous High Def delivery methods. After a film is shot, conversion is not costly at all.
Keith