Is Blu-ray destined to become a "videophile niche?"

by Darren Murph posted Oct 28th 2008 at 4:18PM

We can already tell you that there's not enough water in the intertubez to put out the flames that this one will spark, but we digress. Analyst Robin Harris has blurted out what we can only imagine is being secretly thought by at least a few others: Blu-ray isn't going anywhere. We'll be frank -- we politely disagree with his assertion that BD will be relegated to a "videophile niche" within 12 months, but he does make some great points about the format's inability to truly catch on. For starters, consumers are having a tough time finding a value proposition in the format, which doesn't look phenomenally better than upscaled DVD in most eyes. Second, the sheer cost of licensing involved keeps all but the biggest studios from enjoying the spoils of Blu. Lastly, he suggests that the BDA should realize that Blu-ray isn't needed in the world of HD streaming and upscaled DVD, and it must be priced accordingly. Again, some of this just seems way off base, but it's fantastic fodder for discussion, no?

Filed under: Industry, Blu-ray

Tags: analyst, bd, bda, blu-ray, dead, die, digital downloads, DigitalDownloads, kill, killed, niche, report, rip, sony

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Highest Ranked

FreeRange @ Oct 28th 2008 4:24PM

short answer: yes. long answer: no, but only if you ask people on an HD-centric website.

Low Ranked

EatingPie @ Oct 28th 2008 8:04PM

It's a double no, *if* this TOTAL MISINFORMATION will stop.

"...consumers are having a tough time finding a value proposition in the format, which doesn't look phenomenally better than upscaled DVD in most eyes."

Cite me the study that says that please, as I notice a total lack of link there. Yes, people have said that here and there on the Internet. But for every one of those, there's two or three who say they're nuts and Blu-ray does, indeed, look phenomonally better.

But the larger problem is this adage has been expanded to all consumers in general. This is MISINFORMATION. It's not been tested, nor proven true. But you say it over and over people begin to THINK it's true. Kind of like the news that "Joe the Plumber isn't even named Joe!" when it's actually his middle name, and what he goes by... but it's been repeated over and over and over and people start thinking it's true.

-Pie

Neutral

THizzle7XU @ Oct 28th 2008 8:15PM

Saying Blu-ray is niche is like saying it is like Laser-Disc. I don't ever remember Laser-Disc being prominently displayed in big box retailers and in ads on a regular basis like Blu-ray. The Blu-ray movie shelves are the first thing you see walking in the Best Buy by my house with huge signs. I would call that mainstream already.

I also don't ever remember movie releases saying "on VHS and Laser-Disc next week" whereas every movie home release commercial is "get it on DVD and Blu-ray hi def" now.

Highest Ranked

WebDev511 @ Oct 28th 2008 9:31PM

@THizzle7XU

For all intensive purposes, DVD vs. VHS was a two horse race when the economy was doing well. Blu-Ray beat HD DVD, but still faces up-conversion, downloads and tanking economy.

Just because Blu-Ray has mainstream presence in retail, doesn't mean it's mainstream in the living room.

If it doesn't make up some serious ground in the next six months, it probably won't eclipse DVD until downloads and on-demand do so first.

Highest Ranked

Gus @ Oct 28th 2008 11:29PM

Blu ray is most definitely going to be niche. In the movie 'I am Legend', which I think was set in the year 2012, Will Smith, or whatever his movie name was, frequents the local video store and not once is a blu ray banner or blu ray disc seen.
Obviously, by 2012 the format is dead or just a tiny niche. Case closed :)

Highest Ranked

Declan @ Oct 28th 2008 4:32PM

Yes it is!

Lowest Ranked

why not the LS2LS7? @ Oct 28th 2008 4:33PM

And now we see why engadgethd let Truth Teller back on the site.

Congrats, you've sunk as low as possible. Are you proud?

Highest Ranked

DEEZNUTZ @ Oct 28th 2008 4:34PM

If studios bring the movie prices down, then BD has a fighting chance. Otherwise, I have to say it is very possible that BD will become a niche format.

Personally, I would still support it as a niche, only because I want the PQ and audio quality that DL's simply cannot compete with. I also want to own physical media, not some file in a harddrive that may go corrupt, and then have to pay to redownload it... or they decide to pull their licences and I end up with a worthless library. With BD, it's on a disc, I can take it to a friends house (when they buy a player!)... simple. DL's... still not ready for primetime in my book.

Neutral

minimalist @ Oct 28th 2008 7:55PM

It is possible that Blu-ray will turn out to be a niche market. But the thing nobody ever seems to acknowledge in these debates is the fundamental difference between the rental market and the retail market.

Digital distribution does indeed have a strong start in the rental market and considering that you watch a rental and then you are done with it that will likely be a lucrative market for them. But even these rentals are considerably more expensive than a Netflix subscription. And if I have to wait 4 hours to download a 1080p HDX movie from Vudu or whatever equivalent Apple may someday offer then that sort of sticks a defeats the immediate gratification advantage of digital delivery. I'd just as soon wait a day for Netflix if I have to plan that far ahead to watch a movie.

But the real question is how much will studios demand for HD movie purchases via digital download? The studios are already making Apple charge 15 bucks for crappy "near DVD" quality SD purchases (and notice how they never mention those when they brag about all the TV shows they have sold). DVD's can be had for about the same price. Digital is supposed to be cheaper right?

And given the studio's greed on SD content I would not be surprised to see downloadable HD content go for 20-25 dollars a pop... at which point why should I bother? Most Blu-rays can already be had for about the same price during the initial week at Best Buy and Amazon always has good prices.

Highest Ranked

shawnmos @ Oct 28th 2008 4:38PM

Well it definitely will forever remain a niche product if studios continues releasing BDs that require firmware updates to work properly (ahem FOX). Take the latest Bond release For Your Eyes Only. It is having seriously compatibility problems (meaning it won't play) on a dozen or so Blu-ray player models.

Known players affected so far:

Samsung 1200, 1500, and 5000
LG 100, and 200
Sony BDP1, 300, and 500
Pioneer 51 and 05
Sharp 20

Highest Ranked

phanbouy @ Oct 28th 2008 7:51PM

i still laugh every time i see your avatar

Highest Ranked

shawnmos @ Oct 28th 2008 9:15PM

According to someone on AVS:

"I have word from an insider close to the source that the playback failure of 007 For Your Eyes Only is due to an authoring error - a corrupt JAR file that some players can deal with and others cannot. Not due to BD+, lack of processing power, etc, but rather a problematic JAR file. FYI for all those involved.

If you have an issue with playback, I found this number to report disc issues that should help:
1-888-223-2FOX"

Highest Ranked

JDUBB @ Oct 28th 2008 4:38PM

Why do people only see blu-ray as a minor improvement in the video side? The part I don't get is why the audio portion of blu-ray seems to be forgotten or ignored in articles. Uncompressed audio and finally movies with DTS and DTS-HD and Dolby TrueHD on them since they never made their way on to DVD. This is a huge improvement over DVD. I couldn't care less about the BD-live and extra features like that but the improvement in audio and video has me sold.

Highest Ranked

shawnmos @ Oct 28th 2008 4:42PM

Because most people don't have the equipment needed to even playback the high def codecs. Most people have their blu-ray players hooked up with the optical connection.

Highest Ranked

TJ @ Oct 28th 2008 4:57PM

For most people, the audio is a non-issue. For the mostpart, non-audiophiles start getting severe diminishing returns after a basic 5.1 setup (so they don't even bother to have one). You've also got to remember that a big draw factor (possibly THE biggest) that DVD had over VHS was convienence. A smaller format that you don't need to re-wind and doesn't get "bad spots" over time? Yes please! The fact that it's pretty easy to bring a couple hundred DVD's on a trip also helped. Blu-ray's got all of these same advantages over VHS, but it doesn't have anything like that over DVD. For now, ALL that it has is better picture/sound quality, and better special features (that most people don't watch/care about anyway).

In short, it's simply not worth the leap to the average consumer.

Highest Ranked

The Fuzz 53 @ Oct 28th 2008 5:20PM

I just jumped in on Blu-ray in the last 2 weeks and I have to agree, the audio improvements over DVD far outweigh the visual improvements, but of course you need an AVR than can handle TrueHD and DTS-MA to take advantage of that, which most people won't get, as most will just get $400 HTIB's.

Highest Ranked

scyber @ Oct 28th 2008 7:34PM

Most people I know don't even have a 5.1 setup for their DVD player. I don't think they are going to realize any improvement with the advanced audio codecs.

Highest Ranked

Mr. Cantu @ Oct 29th 2008 12:14PM

It's probably because most people are using their TV speakers instead of any surround sound equipment. I don't know anyone that 7.1, 5.1 or even 2.1, even those that have HDTVs.

Highest Ranked

Robert @ Oct 28th 2008 4:41PM

This is stupid. It's been less than a year since Blu-Ray won the format war. It took DVD, according to Wikipedia, 6 years before people started renting DVD more than VHS, and CDs seemed to take a decade to get to the point where everyone dropped casette tapes as their primary music format. People need to stop the John Dvorak style shit stirring and give it some time. I know it SEEMS like forever, but it HASN'T been very long at all.

Highest Ranked

WebDev511 @ Oct 28th 2008 5:23PM

Robert, Blu-Ray doesn't have the luxury of time. DVD only had one mass market competitor, VHS. Blu-Ray has had to compete against HD DVD, AppleTV, VuDu, Netflix Streaming and all the various provider based on demand services. Granted that list has grown smaller by one, but the others are not going away.

The more consumers tighten their purse strings, the more they'll be saying "Upconverted DVD looks good enough."

If Blu-Ray is going to go mass market player and media prices need to drop...FAST. $150 or less for players and movies to $20 or less for new releases and $15 for catalog titles. Anyone care to dispute the likelihood of both player and release quality dropping if manufacturers and studios can't justify the higher production costs?

I'd rather pay more for higher quality, even if it means Blu-Ray is relegated to niche status.

Highly Ranked

squiggleslash @ Oct 28th 2008 4:40PM

I think the article's stating the obvious really.

You're looking at a format whose advantages are not compelling, which is more expensive than what is there before, that requires new infrastructure to use, which looks set to have major problems if it ever gets close to mass market (BD+ for the lose!1!!) and which isn't going where consumers are heading.

It's going to be an odd kind of niche, Sony has put a lot of effort into pushing it as a mass market format by incorporating it into the PS3, so it'll always be worth the studios putting out an occasional title aimed at the 15-25 male demographic. But outside of that? Niche is right.

Highest Ranked

Multi-format-mayhem @ Oct 28th 2008 4:46PM

It's being openly talked about more and more and the general public just keep on being utterly unaware.

Of course it's a niche product and staying a niche product.

Whatever (already slim) chance Blu-ray ever had of truly going mass-market the looming recession just killed it.

The biggest problem Blu-ray has is that the maximum benefits it offers rely completely on buyers having a lot of other expenisive hardware.

The picture quality advantage Blu-ray can offer is severely dilliuted on a small (32" - 50") 720p HD TV - which is still the majority of the existing market, by far.

HD audio is a waste of money if you have 'average' cheap kit, especially speakers.
If you haven't got a recent HD receiver you're usually straight out of luck with it anyways
(the occasional analogue outputting player aside).

None of this combines to 'play' well with the public & outside the videophile circles - with the singular exception of the PS3 'more game console than movie' fans who convince themselves that 1080p on a 32" 720p (or even 1080p) HD TV set is 'awesome' and lossless audio is 'amazing' through their $200 5.1 Creative 'system'.
OK, I poke fun & generalise but you get the point.

Highest Ranked

mcr @ Oct 28th 2008 4:50PM

yes, indeed.

Lowest Ranked

Maxx @ Oct 28th 2008 5:05PM

I think that people are impressed with the functional benefits of BD also. The ability to view the menu's and make adjustments on the fly while watching the movie is a great addition. the downside to that is that we have somehow lost the basic "resume" function though. As time goes one and players get cheaper it will just make sence to replace your DVD player with a BD model, perhaps without even knowing it. TV's are getting bigger and cheaper, people will find that they need the extra resolution to go with the screen real estate when they see what a DVD looks like on a 55-60 inch screen.

Highly Ranked

Multi-format-mayhem @ Oct 28th 2008 5:28PM

Maxx 'most people' are not up for a vast 55" - 60" TV.
Not really.
To most people 'TV' is still just 'TV', only serious movie fans want a vast TV dominating their living rooms - and thats assuming they have the room for it, which many do not.

Look at the stats as they stand; when is this supposed to happen?

The vast majority of HD TVs sold right now are small to medium sized (as they have always been) & 720p sets
(EngadgetHD posted this recently).

Then there's the coming recession which is about to kill a lot of business activity for the next few years
(at least 2yrs according to many experts & some predict much longer seeing as it is all happening with a back-drop of the consumer already up to their necks in private debt)

Blu-ray simply hasn't got the time to wait another 5+ years until things start to go right for it.

In 5yrs the technical environment & internet infrastructure will have changed massively.
In fact the coming recession is going to hurry this along as Govs invest in infrastructure projects to lessen the impact of the recession.
Physical media will be even less relevant than it already is.
If you really need a physical copy (and if the industry will allow you it) you'll most likely be burning your own.

Highest Ranked

Chip Douglas @ Oct 28th 2008 5:11PM

My father-in-law has a beautiful 52" Samsung LCD. I am having a difficult time providing him a compelling reason to upgrade to a Blu-Ray deck even at $200. Yes, he is an average consumer. He does not have a McIntosh driving his audio. His DVD player is "Good enough" for watching movies on Saturday night.

Highest Ranked

TJ @ Oct 28th 2008 5:17PM

And "Good enough" is all that the average consumer ever cares about, with the occasional exception of something to impress friends/family/neighbors. For that, a 1080p VOD movie should do the trick well enough.

Highest Ranked

wreckedchevy @ Oct 28th 2008 7:37PM

my mom has a 52" and when walmart did the $90 hd-dvd players she went over to get one and seen the price of the movies and didn't want one. same is going to be for blu-ray

Neutral

Dan @ Oct 28th 2008 5:22PM

+1 to Robert's comments. It's laughable how many self-styled "experts" think they have this thing figured out.

The fact is, not only is Blu-Ray adoption conforming exactly to the pattern established by DVD, it's doing so at a faster rate than DVD did. A remarkable achievement, considering that DVD is, to date, the most quickly-adopted consumer electronics format ever. I was an early adopter of DVD - I only *wish* I'd had the wide variety of titles available in the second year of the DVD format that I currently enjoy with Blu-Ray.

Blu-Ray is doing and will continue to do just fine.

Highest Ranked

phanbouy @ Oct 28th 2008 6:37PM

wait, so you like blu-ray then, eh?

Highest Ranked

scyber @ Oct 28th 2008 7:57PM

The only problem is that Bluray adoption is ultimately tied to HDTV adoption rates. When DVD came out, it could be played w/ some of its benefits on almost all of the TVs at the time. Perhaps an RF modulator was neededf for TVs w/o composite ports, but it wasn't a serious limiting factor.

Highest Ranked

SimonM @ Oct 28th 2008 5:35PM

I know BD is a great format, no dissagreement there, but I for one wouldn't bother the upgrade from my upscalling DVD player, I am not a videophile, but neither is the mass market.
I agree with many of the above comments, the change from VHS to DVD had huge improvements which the masses could enjoy, the move from DVD the BD, costs asside, simply does not have the benefits that the mass market would/could enjoy.

Highest Ranked

Pip @ Oct 28th 2008 5:44PM

If Blu-Ray remains at it's current prices, yes.

This Holiday season will be very telling. Maybe Blu-Ray can turn it around with Black Friday prices and some hit releases but it's far from a sure thing.

Sony MUST reduce the player prices to $129 or lower within the next 6-12 months, if not sooner. Once the gap between DVD and Blu-Ray players narrows to less than 20-30%, people *should* be smart enough to realize the value added with Blu-Ray. Disc prices also need to drop but disc prices don't matter if no has players.

Sony is missing it's market entry opportunity. Blu-Ray is still a hot technology right now. However, it's market entry opportunity is fading. If Blu-Ray prices remain high, it's going to be branded as too expensive or as a "videophile format" no matter what Sony does.

Personally, every time I went to Target or Best Buy, I'd buy a new Blu-Ray to start growing a collection. However, with the market share remaining low and with doubts about the future of the format, I've stopped doing that and I'm beginning to get Blu-Rays exclusively from Netflix.

The Blu-Ray technology is out of it's infancy. It's time to start to appeal to Joe the Plumber. Do most consumers even understand Blu-Ray and it's advantages? Where are the ads for Blu-Ray? High prices and lack of awareness are slowing killing Blu-Ray.

Blu-Ray Keys to Success: Lower Prices now, not later. Lower disc prices. Increasing awareness of the technology and it's benefits.

Blu-Ray Keys to Failure: Sony's Current Plan... does Sony even have a plan for Blu-Ray other than just releasing player and discs and hoping everyone finds out about Blu-Ray?

Neutral

Mark @ Oct 28th 2008 5:54PM

I doubt HD-streaming will become mainstream anytime soon. A lot of ISP's have bandwidth caps, meaning that after 3 or 4 HD movies, you've used up your limit. Also, bandwidth isn't fast enough to maintain HD-streaming without buffering somewhere...

Until the ISP's remove the data transfer caps, and give us fast enough connections, HD-streaming will be a niche, or simply not possible.

I'm just waiting for Blu-Ray players and movies to drop down to the level that DVD players and movies are today.

Highest Ranked

chris @ Oct 29th 2008 1:31AM

re: bandwidth caps - Most ISPs have bandwidth caps? no, but many ARE considering caps on upload bandwidth to curtail P2P/torrent activity. This should not affect downloads of HD media from the large content providers.

"...consumers are having a tough time finding a value proposition in the format, which doesn't look phenomenally better than upscaled DVD in most eyes."

quit calling this "misinformation". It's a bit of marking principals mixed with some opinions. I have a very good upscaling DVD player and a PS3 hooked to a 1080p projector. Even with a 106" picture, upscaled DVDs do look pretty darn good... If I show it to a JoePlummer, I get a "WOW"! Now if I then show Joe a BluRay movie... I get another WOW. But it's not the same difference as going from some crappy, compressed SD broadcast to an HD one... it's a more subtle increase of detail. Joe even sees that it looks better, but when you ask him to open his wallet... good enough prevails!

I think BluRay has, with a better strategy (lower prices mostly), awesome potential. I really really hope it doesn't fall into that niche area. If they build up momentum, I think they help US more by showing what HD *CAN* look like. So when Joe sees some streaming HD content vs. BluRay, issues like compression & crappy bitrates become more obvious.

Highest Ranked

Drew @ Oct 29th 2008 2:54PM

Isn't this great? Sure makes the $99 HD DVD that everything worked on look a lot better. Thanks Sony!

Highest Ranked

clara @ Oct 28th 2008 6:00PM

Of my friends, family and coworkers, I haven't seen much interest in this at all.

Most of them have or are buying HD tvs. There's little to no interest because DVD collections are pretty big and nobody wants the trouble of two different formats/players/things-to-think- about. It's not really about the extra expense or the extra value in the PQ, because there's nothing really that unsatisfactory about decently upconverted DVDs to begin with.

Most people want to watch a movie, and it's about the movie, not about the PQ.

Highest Ranked

DVD4ME @ Oct 28th 2008 5:57PM

ONE WORD---'YES'

Highest Ranked

Alex @ Oct 28th 2008 6:15PM

Blu Ray became a Niche product the day the competition with HD DVD ended.

BD fanboys cried "economy of scale will lower the BD prices!"
Well, the prices on [obsolete] decks are dropping because of glut.

A year later and movie prices are higher.

Enjoy your win fanboys!

Highest Ranked

Jean @ Oct 28th 2008 7:22PM

I install home theaters. I have an HD-DVD player but not Blu-ray. (mostly because of cost; even my dealer cost). However, I dont really use it. one downfall I have, I would rather use component cables in my system. its less problematic, and I can sent my video feeds anywhere I want. I dont care if its not in 1080p. When I want 1080P I download a blu-ray rip, and sent it to my TiVo HD.

Highest Ranked

chumley @ Oct 28th 2008 7:26PM

Another big barrier to BD adoption is that fact that the average Joe has more than one DVD player. For example family room, bedroom, car, laptop, portable, kids room, etc. If he has a BD player at all, he only has one. If Joe buys a movie on DVD, he can use it anywhere. If he buys that movie on BD, he can only use it on his one player. I think that motivates people to stick with DVD and/or to limit BD to rentals rather than purchases. If the BD industry really wants to accelerate BD adoption, they should include a DVD with every BD purchase, for about the same price as the DVD. That would give the buyer a "theater" copy on BD, and a "portable" copy on DVD. People who don't yet own BD players would be motivated to buy them, because they would already have BD disks from their DVD purchases. The problem with this solution is that people would buy the package and then try to resell one of the disks that they don't need. The studios won't allow that, so in reality the 2 disk solution will never happen. What they really need is a way to put a DVD and BD on a single disk, like the HD-DVD combo disks, except both versions should be on a single side.

Highly Ranked

phanbouy @ Oct 28th 2008 7:31PM

"What they really need is a way to put a DVD and BD on a single disk, like the HD-DVD combo disks"

fat fucking chance =D

Highest Ranked

chumley @ Oct 28th 2008 7:57PM

Yeah, both on one disk is probably never going to happen either. If it hasn't been done already, it probably can't be done. So I guess the whole point of my rambling post is that limited portability of BD compared to DVD is another reason why BD may end up being a niche product as the original article suggests.

Highly Ranked

Adam @ Oct 29th 2008 4:53PM

That is exactly why I was cheering for HD-DVD. I thought the combo disks were perfect. One side HD other side standard DVD. Problem solved. Blu-ray has never even attempted a solution to this issue. May including a digital copy but that is just not the same.

Highest Ranked

phanbouy @ Oct 28th 2008 7:32PM

it's always lots of fun to read the comments on BD here rather than engadget which seems to be exclusively for the hardcore sony fanboys

Highest Ranked

wreckedchevy @ Oct 28th 2008 7:40PM

i think the large library of blu titles has to do more with corporate greed than trying to support a new format at a fast pace... most of the titles out there are old catalog titles the studios did a mediocre job bring up to date and now they get to charge a premium for movies that have barely sold in years...

Neutral

phanbouy @ Oct 28th 2008 7:50PM

oh come on, they totally came out with "Dude, Where's My Car?"

Neutral

wreckedchevy @ Oct 28th 2008 7:43PM

suppose to be a reply to dan....

Highest Ranked

digitalbt @ Oct 28th 2008 8:31PM

The future of digital video and audio content does not depend upon a rotating disc. The disc is a storage medium for data. PERIOD. The days of data on discs are numbered. Look at what has happened to music downloads! CD's are quickly becoming a niche market as well as a new generation of listeners either steal their music from Limewire or purchase it from Apple's Itunes store. The biggest competitor to Blu Ray isn't DVD, it is the present and forthcoming alternative methods of receiving high definition data.

Neutral

JoJo @ Nov 5th 2008 7:02PM

I'm not trying to single you out personally, but after hearing what you said echoed dozens of times before you I have to reply.

You all assume that Blu Ray is dead in the water because of digital distribution and lack of HDTV adoption? This so-called "average Joe" excuse is going to affect EVERY model of entertainment. the average person doesn't have the computer or connection to download an HD quality movie at what would be considered "reasonable" speeds. I know for a fact that I am 1 out of 5 other people people in my family that know how to download torrents and have the ability to burn or watch them (if they are HD of course) but you guys seem to only think this affects Blu Ray.

EVERYONE will be hurt by this (non)recession as is being seen by the lack of hiring and the major cutbacks in workforce over many industries. The idea that this economic crisis will somehow only hurt one tiny aspect of a growing entertainment industry is a very narrow-minded view. everyone will feel the pressure.... and this time will cause everyone to grow at a slower pace, not just HD Disc formats.

Why we all feel the need to jump up on our soapboxes as fast as possible is beyond me. everything takes time, you can't just expect a new format to be released and completely wipe out its predecessor. How long have you all been downloading CDs? For a while now I would assume, and I have yet to see any stores dismantling their CD displays due to lack of sales. This is a big world we live in here folks, and we are all stubborn to change, that is where the "good enough" philosophy comes from. Give it time and you will see that this is the way to go. Remember when you used to have a cd burner and drooled over your friends dvd burner because he could keep a crapload more info on one disc? what do you think you will be turning to in a couple years when you want to carry a few HD movies around on one media?

Before setting me on fire for that last question just ask yourself, for all you guys who obviously have the money and time to devote to downloading and streaming HD content (fast ISP, decent comp, good quality monitor) what would be the harm of another couple hundred bucks to burn Blu Rays of your own?

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