http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/ Engadget HD Comments for Analyst predicts "dramatic" drop in Blu-ray sales during Q4 http://www.engadgethd.com/media/feedlogo.gif http://www.engadgethd.com en-us Copyright 2009 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 20th 2008 1:14PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 20th 2008 1:28PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 20th 2008 3:40PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 20th 2008 1:22PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
But I expect most titles will follow a similar discounting pattern as they did on DVD though. New titles command a premium, and are then discounted just before they appear on a movie channel. The dross ends up in the remainder bin or 3 for 2 deals. The classic movies tend to keep their price better which explains why studios love their back catalogue titles. Same will happen on Blu, especially as the number of titles swells and they cannot rely on the novelty of the format to drive sales.

DVDs were very expensive at the start too. Some studios were cheaper than others - Warner discs were the cheapest but shipped in crappy cardboard cases and the quality was variable ranging from featureless flippers to dual layer groundbreaking releases like The Matrix. Interestingly Warner is behaving pretty much the same this time around with a mix of single layer treatments and titles which are getting a full treatment. I think this is the right strategy, and will eventually force greedier studios like Fox to drop their prices.]]>Oct 20th 2008 1:37PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/The movie studios are making $millions out of DVD now, the only reason for them to change is more money, but the format is not significantly different enough to DVD for the masses at this stage.
Do the movie studios care if blu ray goes bum up, other than sony, probably not, it is a means to an end.
Keep prices high and milk the cash cow for as long as possible. They might even prefer a split market, that way they can keep fleasing the home theatre fans with outrageous prices on blu ray and it's business as usual for the DVD crowd.]]>Oct 20th 2008 8:22PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
On another note, I still dont see blu-ray sales droping. Its holiday season, and I know im gonna be buying a few as gifts for people. If anything, the sales will only increase as people are willing to spend that little extra if its a gift for some1. Now come janurary, thats when I see sales droping..]]>Oct 20th 2008 1:25PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/I don't think that this economy offers any better opportunities for downloadable media. If folks aren't buying BD players and movies, they ain't buying HULU/VUDU/Apple TV boxes either.]]>Oct 20th 2008 1:27PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
The world isn't going to end if Blu ends up being more successful than LaserDisc but less than DVD. As long as the studios keep up with high quality transfers and releases, I'll be happy.]]>Oct 20th 2008 1:32PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
When are they going to start dropping prices on the new releases?

You want me to pay $30+ for a new release because....???

All these movies should be at $14.99 and no more. Then you would see an adoption rate that would guarantee Bluray's success.

The Bluray association needs to start thinking about Bluray as a replacement and not a luxury. That's the problem. They market is as a Lexus when HDTV is becoming as prevalent as a Toyota.

If they continue to sell it as a higher tier, luxury experience, then it will never gain mass market appeal.

I can catch all those crappy movies on Cable in HD, and most I record to my TiVoHD(750GB) to watch whenever I want.

Remind me again why I need to pay $30+ for a disc?
]]>Oct 20th 2008 1:40PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/And if you spend more than 25 bucks, you get free shipping. I'm glad to pay the extra 5 bucks (that's all it is folks) to have 1080p and PERFECT audio. Have you heard the lossless track on iron man? God's own voice couldn't be much cooler. You won't be getting that on vudu any time soon.

Big content wants everyone to abandon blu ray because they make a killing off not having to make discs and relicensing and such.]]>Oct 20th 2008 7:02PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Blu ray = higher disc prices, it has to!]]>Oct 20th 2008 8:26PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 20th 2008 10:57PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
I say just let the numbers speak for themselves and stop with all the speculating.]]>Oct 20th 2008 1:44PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
And with players at $200 (and it's not even Christmas shopping season yet)... Blu Ray seems to be at that price that hardware players will do well too. To me it seems like the perfect gift any woman can buy for their tech loving guy friend.

I'll take that back, second best compared to "Titties in a Box"]]>Oct 20th 2008 1:48PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 20th 2008 1:50PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
I think the main focus for digital for the next few years is going to be rentals. People who actually buy movies from Apple, Amazon, Sony, Microsoft without there being a common industry format really need to have their heads examined.

Once a common platform arrives then I think ownership is going to be a much more attractive proposition, assuming the DRM is not so hideous as to scare people off.]]>Oct 20th 2008 1:48PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
What's frustrating though is that all titles are $20+ unless there's a very limited sale on. BOGOFs/B2G1Fs drive the price down but the deals are usually just for a week and the titles are limited. Older blu-ray releases that clearly didn't sell well should retail for no more than $15 and we should see older catalog titles hit the $20 price point. It still commands a premium over DVD pricing, but $5 shouldn't be a dealbreaker given that this is considerably better than DVD.
]]>Oct 20th 2008 2:09PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
Yeah, mark me down, whatever. But the current growth rate in BluRay sales and the titles coming out in 4Q 2008 mean that a dramatic drop in sales year-over-year or quarter-over-quarter is all but impossible.

This guy is going to look like a chump. I hope he's ready for it.

This isn't to say it'll all be roses. Even flat sales would be a bad thing. Even relatively flat sales would be perceived poorly.]]>Oct 20th 2008 2:30PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 20th 2008 2:31PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 20th 2008 8:29PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 20th 2008 2:34PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
The digital download domination argument is silly though. I know it's been debated to hell, but there is still no download service anywhere for any price that can match the quality (for video AND audio) of a Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. There won't be for quite a while either because of bandwidth limitations, and even when there is it will be priced comparable to the cost of owning an HD player and discs. Vudu comes close, and may be able to match in the video department, but lacks lossless audio of any kind (you get DVD quality Dolby 5.1). Some people may not care, but a large portion of the money-to-spare Blu-Ray market cares a great deal about the quality of the content and will not settle for lower quality downloads or cable VOD. Physical media is here to stay for the foreseeable future.]]>Oct 20th 2008 4:05PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 20th 2008 5:31PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 20th 2008 4:18PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
$200 for players even before the Christmas shopping season begins, and $20 discs? Poor economy or no, that sounds like a winning situation to me. You ask me Kay is on the take from the cable co's More nay saying trying to kill off quality physical media.]]>Oct 20th 2008 4:12PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 20th 2008 4:54PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 20th 2008 5:27PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 20th 2008 5:53PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
]]>Oct 20th 2008 11:12PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 21st 2008 12:12AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
He may well have worked for Toshiba, or been an HD DVD fan, but more likely he's got some marketing and consumer confidence information that we'll never see. Just because most of the people here have HDTV and Blu-Ray (and maybe even HD DVD players) and we like them alot, doesn't mean Joe The Plumber is going to step up and buy in.]]>Oct 21st 2008 2:46AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/We're not talking about massive growth here. He's predicting a steep decline. With the number of players out there and the titles coming, how do you see a steep decline?

Joe Sixpack doesn't have to buy an BluRays for it to have just zero growth, isn't a "dramatic drop".

I think you put too much stock in this analyst.]]>Oct 21st 2008 3:54AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
Honestly, if I were Hollywood, on the basis of what happened two weeks ago, I would be seriously concerned at this point. It's nice that one particular genre seems likely to do well on Blu-ray, but I want a technology that ultimately is adopted by a wide cross section of society so all my titles are likely to do well, not just comic book adaptations and other titles oriented towards the Playstation 3 demographic.]]>Oct 21st 2008 10:00AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
You're correct, I also do not believe that it's going to drop, more like slower than expected growth. With as low as blu-ray penetration is relative to hdtv, a decline in sales is a bit of a reach.

@squiggle
Iron Man DOES look and sound great on my HT setup, plus I'm over 25 or at least that's what my drivers license says. That said, if the studios continue to see action titles as the biggest sellers, you just KNOW that some accountant is going to tell the bosses that they have to weight their releases to that sector, which could inhibit growth across demographics. More movies across genres means broader appeal and a larger potential market.

The end result is that the Blu-Ray demographic could end up looking a lot like LaserDisc's, but with a larger portion of home installations & PS3 owners. I don't think that's bad, but I can't help think that the companies that invested in Blu-Ray based on wider adoption probably won't agree. Makes me wonder what the brake even point is for those that make players, replication equipment, replicators and studios. Some of them probably don't care too much (Sony) but others are likely to have some very spirited board room discussions.]]>Oct 21st 2008 11:03AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/
Well, yes and no.

I do feel it indicates a difference between the BluRay market and the DVD market, as the DVD market doesn't exhibit this. But all it exhibits is that the BluRay market isn't mature yet. DVD had its equivalent with "The Matrix". It came out and sold a ton more than anything had before. It showed the same spike (although the internet didn't have week-by-week data on blogs then). This didn't indicate DVD was in trouble, as indicated as how it is the dominant format right now.

But I don't feel it means there is something systemically wrong with BluRay. The biggest thing wrong is the people who think it should be at a different point in its lifespan than it is right now.

Remember 1999?

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/reviews/matrix.html

The best is yet to come.]]>Oct 21st 2008 11:24AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 21st 2008 12:17AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/There are SO many movies out there who has time for repeat viewings?
I have 500 DVDs in my netflix cue and i keep putting recommendations from friends/rotten tomatoes on the top, so i can't even put a dent in it.



]]>Oct 21st 2008 3:00AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/Oct 22nd 2008 8:59PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/20/analyst-predicts-dramatic-drop-in-blu-ray-sales-in-q4/ HD sat/cable?? You ppl know that sat/cable was around when DVD and VHS were in the market right?? The bottom line is this... Lower disc prices mean more sales. The studios know this ppl, if you think that you are smarter than the ppl that run studios for knowing this, then get yourself a medal for being the dumbest a-hole ever!!! Like Gus said it's all about the $$$ right now. BD is growing year over year. That is all that matters to these ppl.]]>Oct 22nd 2008 9:18PM