I know the comment was facetious (though you know where I stand on that issue...), but the great thing is that BD can die as a movie distribution format without dying as a computer storage format. It certainly has potential there in the short term. DAT never made it as a consumer audio format, but it lived on for many years as both a data storage format and a system for audio engineers.
In the longer term, be aware that SD card prices are plummeting. 128G for less than $10 doesn't seem impossible in the next two or three years, the capacity/dollar seems to double every three or four months at the moment. BD can fight that by not stopping at four layers, and by drastically cutting media prices ($15 for a BD-RE? What the hell?)
I think your exaggerating the progression of flash media. I doubt a 32GB SD will be $10 in 2 years. It will take at least 6 years for 128GB SD to be nearly that affordable. By which time a 100GB blu-ray will cost as much as a common 4.5GB DVD today. We heard about SSD's more than a year ago and they're still not very affordable. (At least the good ones) Especially at capacities as relatively small as 256GB+
I'm just extrapolating trends. 16Gb is right now less than half the price that 8Gb was under a year ago. That is, I can easily get 16Gb of SD for about $32, whereas the 8Gb SD I looked for last December cost about $80. 8Gb is generally available for under $20 right now. Do some searches on Amazon for 8Gb SDHC and 16Gb SDHC if you don't believe me.
Do you really think that two years is unrealistic for 32Gb to drop to below $10 given that trend? They've only just come out so prices are unreasonably high, but they're going to plummet to no more than 2x16Gb within a few months. I think it's reasonable to suggest they'll be around $40 within nine months, if not cheaper.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
squiggleslash @ Oct 6th 2008 11:11AM
I know the comment was facetious (though you know where I stand on that issue...), but the great thing is that BD can die as a movie distribution format without dying as a computer storage format. It certainly has potential there in the short term. DAT never made it as a consumer audio format, but it lived on for many years as both a data storage format and a system for audio engineers.
In the longer term, be aware that SD card prices are plummeting. 128G for less than $10 doesn't seem impossible in the next two or three years, the capacity/dollar seems to double every three or four months at the moment. BD can fight that by not stopping at four layers, and by drastically cutting media prices ($15 for a BD-RE? What the hell?)
jitty @ Oct 7th 2008 7:04PM
I think your exaggerating the progression of flash media. I doubt a 32GB SD will be $10 in 2 years. It will take at least 6 years for 128GB SD to be nearly that affordable. By which time a 100GB blu-ray will cost as much as a common 4.5GB DVD today. We heard about SSD's more than a year ago and they're still not very affordable. (At least the good ones) Especially at capacities as relatively small as 256GB+
squiggleslash @ Oct 8th 2008 8:40AM
I'm just extrapolating trends. 16Gb is right now less than half the price that 8Gb was under a year ago. That is, I can easily get 16Gb of SD for about $32, whereas the 8Gb SD I looked for last December cost about $80. 8Gb is generally available for under $20 right now. Do some searches on Amazon for 8Gb SDHC and 16Gb SDHC if you don't believe me.
Do you really think that two years is unrealistic for 32Gb to drop to below $10 given that trend? They've only just come out so prices are unreasonably high, but they're going to plummet to no more than 2x16Gb within a few months. I think it's reasonable to suggest they'll be around $40 within nine months, if not cheaper.