Nielsen VideoScan High-Def market share for week ending September 28th, 2008
So much for the theory that only movies that fit in the Blu-ray demographic can hit number one on the Nielsen VideoScan charts -- thanks Home Media Magazine for the data -- as Sex and the City: The Movie easily beat any other title by almost 35 percent. This might sound like a lot but it's nowhere near as much as the DVD version, which outsold Leatherheads by almost 92 percent. This one title easily explains the low market share for Blu-ray this week at 6 percent, in fact the Blu version of S&TC only managed 3.37 percent of the share from DVD -- which is about a third of what a title like Forbidden Kingdom manages. The other interesting thing this week is that while Leatherheads was number two on the DVD charts, it's only number five on Blu, with older titles like Speed Racer and Transformers easily outselling it. This week is fun and all, but next week is when the real fun starts because Iron Man has reportedly already outsold every other Blu-ray Disc to date. Because of the predicted success of just this one title, we'd be so bold as to expect the Blu-ray market share to be the best in record, which would put it over 12 percent.
Filed under: Blu-ray
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Multi-format-mayhem @ Oct 5th 2008 2:34PM
Every so often there has to be an aberration.
That is what I'd put those skanky, aging and laughably over-painted harridans in 'Sex & the City' down to
(in any event with overall BD movie sales @ $10 million the numbers for 'S&tC' must have been tiny).
Iron Man will be better but once again with an overall spend at (let's say a record $20 million in the week) again the numbers will be very small.
The same will be true of the results from the week in which the latest Batman appears.
It'll be a little better than before and undoubtedly some folks will soil themselves over it but the underlying truth is still that sales are remaining stuck at a very very small level compared to DVD.
Here's some real numbers -
DVD sells almost 1.7 billion discs in the USA p.a.
http://www.dvdinformation.com/industryData/index.cfm
DVD sells over 7 billion discs worldwide.
http://www.contentdeliveryandstorage.org/stats/stat-replication_worldwide.html
Blu-ray is simply the new Laserdisc, given a boost (compared to Laserdisc) by being built into a PS3 game console, but it's still a very niche product & at a high margin.
Now as a Blu-ray owner myself I have no problem facing the fact that Blu-ray is a zillion miles away from replacing DVD and is in fact extremely unlikely ever to do so
(especially with a huge recession just around the corner).
I just wonder why so many others seem incapable of facing up to this and telling the truth about where BD really stands?
12%+ my bottom.
kenjix @ Oct 5th 2008 2:47PM
Do you think that DVD started out with those numbers ?
You ever hear the saying of history repeats itself?
Do changes happen overnight?
Did DVD had 100% market share when VHS came out?
benny boy @ Oct 5th 2008 3:16PM
Every post on blu-ray doesn't need to be filled with comments on how Blu-Ray will or will not overtake DVD. Every comment is just another person trying to masquerade their opinions as fact.
The ACTUAL TRUTH is that no-one actually knows what will happen and anyone that says that they do are idiots.
You can't say Blu-ray will become the next laserdisc or that it will become the next DVD as
NO ONE ACTUALLY KNOWS.
J.Goodwin @ Oct 5th 2008 3:22PM
VHS will never die, it has 99% of the market.
why not the LS2LS7? @ Oct 5th 2008 4:02PM
Careful. You'll get banned again.
12% is pretty good for only a year on the market. Give it some time before you declare it to remain niche forever.
It hasn't even had it's 2nd big Xmas yet, jeez.
Where was DVD in 1999? Maybe 12% as big as VHS.
Multi-format-mayhem @ Oct 5th 2008 8:52PM
@ why not the LS2LS7?
What would I get banned for?
Pointing out the Emperor's new clothes? Having a different view?
Oh my, the humanity!
The point is not whether or not Blu-ray can at some point in the future manage to post a genuine 12% of the market number.
It's not even whether DVD had 12% of the market 2yrs+ in either.
The point is that Blu-ray does not have a true 12% right now. It holds a highly suspect number in a highly selective and odd series of stats
and everyone knows it, no matter what they say (the Washington Post mentioned 4% the other day, which just goes to show they are not prepared to parrot 12% but will give them some sort of the benefit of the doubt - but they sure as hell are nowhere near 4% of that 1.7 billion number
and everyone knows that too.
No matter how desperately some people want to believe different.
It speaks volumes that the BDA have now shut-up shop on disclosing verifiable actual sales numbers.
why not the LS2LS7? @ Oct 9th 2008 9:46PM
You'll get banned for the same thing you got banned for last time, Truth Teller (or maybe Nfinity).
Overall market share figures don't matter as much as major-release early weeks figures. I mean, they matter, but Hollywood cares a lot more about how many copies sell at $25 than sell after the title has been out for 12 months and it's selling for $8, because those early copies bring in virtually all the profit the release ever will bring in.
Another thing is that the major studios don't care how many copies of Steve Odenkirk's Thumb Wars are sold on BluRay versus DVD either, even on the first day. And the sales of those $5 releases won't make or break the format either. So mentioning DVD sells 7B units a year isn't that useful a figure.
What Hollywood cares about is how much money they can make releasing a movie on BD, and those figures are rising and rapidly moving into the point where Hollywood cannot afford NOT TO release major movies on BD.
squiggleslash @ Oct 5th 2008 2:39PM
This is the first genuinely "healthy" Blu-ray figures I've seen in a while, that is, figures not distorted by the top-20 (which is still hovering around 6%, actually lower than it's been lately) that show improvement.
Still a long way to go, and I seriously doubt BD's going to make a comeback, especially with the economy collapsing, but it's interesting to note.
Rob @ Oct 5th 2008 5:13PM
Wow, old HDDVD supporters are trying to associate anything with BD death. Now it's the economy hey. Here's a thought, with the recession that were in, people are looking for more value this xmas. Sony already thinks they will do good with the fact that people want BD players and game consoles. From now till xmas there will be another 4 to 5 million Ps3's out there. Plus the stand alones that will be seling well around $199. The ironic thing here, people are still buying things even though we are in the middle of a recession. THE OLDEST BANK IN THE US FOLDED(WaMu). One that made it throught the great depression of the 30's. Think about it. BD is doing just fine, and by Dec 2010; BD will have half of the physical based disc sales for movies.
squiggleslash @ Oct 6th 2008 10:12AM
That has to be the most blutarded response I could possibly imagine. I praise BD for having a good week on a week where the figures aren't disproportionately affected by a popular title being released for BD only, and you complain that I mentioned the economy might be a problem for BD.
You even claim that the lousy economy proves that Blu-ray will be immensely popular in 2010!
Wow. Just wow.
why not the LS2LS7? @ Oct 5th 2008 4:03PM
Another good step. Iron Man will help too. After this Xmas, when BD players actually get some real market penetration, things should look pretty good. On a pure revenue basis of major releases, BluRay should be over 25% of DVD by the end of 2009. Maybe higher.
Big Wizz @ Oct 5th 2008 8:26PM
Yikes! Sex and the City is actually the one movie I *wouldn't* want in HD. The years are starting to show on the ladies...
Spiza @ Oct 5th 2008 11:48PM
Even though The Godfather trilogy came in second, that was an expensive set. I'm putting that as the reason the $ numbers are higher.
WebDev511 @ Oct 6th 2008 1:05AM
MulitFormat has a valid point, but anyone expecting the BDA to just open up the books and let everyone see exactly how all the titles are selling is smoking something.
Iron Man is going to have a HUGE spike, at least 13%, and then we'll bounce between 7% & 12% until dark knight and shawsank come out.
squiggleslash @ Oct 6th 2008 10:09AM
If it is a huge spike that's good news for BD. I'm finding it doubtful myself. I'm sure Iron Man will do disproportionately well - it's the kind of title that appeals to PS3 owners after all - but I don't think you'll see a 13% spike because of it.
Remember that unlike, say, Transformers, both the BD and DVD were released on the same day. That means Iron Man BD will be up against Iron Man DVD. Sales of both are reportedly very high.
KJ @ Oct 6th 2008 11:10AM
The actual percentage when you look at more than the top 20 titles - which is supposed to be an advantage for blu-ray is 8.46%
The numbers show $10.92% for Blu-Ray and $129.86 total. This is a whole lot more than 6%. This top 20 number works both ways, not as an advantage and ultimately it works against blu-ray I feel. Blu-Ray is not going to just sell new titles as things move forward. We are starting to have the back porting happening. In weeks when we get several back port relases and some lack luster girly releases we are going to see disparaging results for Blu-Ray. Once the back ports start in earnest and as the library grows - almost over 2000 on Amazon - it's going to become more of a direct fair fight. It's the library stupid. VHS won because titles were available (they didn't fight different types of content) The major difference between this and laser disc is that there I've never seen a laser disc isle at a target or a wal mart. It's coming. It's coming in earnest. It may take 3-5 years (like DVD did) but get over it, it's going to happen.
Fred @ Oct 6th 2008 4:34PM
First i am busting out laughing when i read webdev511response. You really want to put Shawshank with Iron Man and Dark Knight??? Really. I think Hulk Will have better numbers than Shawshank.
Now seriously, BD is here to stay. The fact that right now it is pulling these numbers, all outlets are pushing BD (Target, Best Buy, WalMart, Ext.), and more and more players will be sold, does mean that Blu is here to stay. The questions will be when will it pass DVD… I think it will be a long time because of people not wanting to transition, plus the economy, plus to people the change of DVD to Blu is not as big of a change as it was from VHS to DVD.
So I say 2013.