Nielsen VideoScan High-Def market share for week ending September 21st, 2008
What a disappointing week for the studios as the new releases that appeared to be big titles didn't sell well at all. Although they didn't sell well on Blu-ray, it's hard to say how well they fared against DVD as Home Media Magazine didn't publish the market share per title chart this week. We suspect it's about the same, as DVD isn't up this week either. As many might have predicted, the number one title fits right in the so-called PS3 demographic as Speed Racer outsold the much older Transformers by almost two to one, and more interestingly outsold the new release 88 Minutes by even more. Weinstein's first Blu-ray release didn't do too well either as The Mist came in at seven and 1408 at eighteen. What's more telling this week though, is the random titles on the Blu-ray charts, we're betting that his is from a combination of weak new releases and promotions directed at titles like Troy and A Clockwork Orange. We expect next week to be better as The Godfather Collection, Deception, and Leatherheads will all be counted and should be enough to move the charts. But hold on to your seats for the week after that as Iron Man is released and is expected to beat every Blu record to date.
Filed under: Blu-ray
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Multi-format-mayhem @ Sep 27th 2008 10:41AM
Rather than bury this info in last weeks discussion here are the facts.
The Nielson numbers are just a statistical little game, they are divorced from reality.
Here's why.
DVD currently has sales of almost 1.7 billion discs in the USA p.a.
http://www.dvdinformation.com/industryData/index.cfm
DVD also sells over 7 billion discs worldwide.
http://www.contentdeliveryandstorage.org/stats/stat-replication_worldwide.html
So the 8% etc etc number is just PR froth, it is utterly disconnected from actual reality and is actually telling us nothing of any real importance.
So, if you're buying into Blu-ray for the convenience of high def on disc and you realise you are involved in a high margin and probably short-lived product then great, enjoy.
I do
So let's cut out this embarrassingly ignorant weekly kiddology about how Blu-ray is building and soon to be on the verge of taking over from DVD.
On the real numbers it's not even close, it hasn't even started and it just cant.
squiggleslash @ Sep 27th 2008 11:52AM
That's a little bizarre, I wonder why there's such a disconnect between the Nielson figures and the figures you quote, you'd have to assume DVDs were selling for an average of around $3 each to get the figures to match. (And, on that basis, given the average selling price of a BD is probably around $15-20, and the non-top-20 Nielson figures are dollar sales, the figures look even worse. 8% my ass. 8% probably helps studios justify supporting the format, but it doesn't suggest take-up is happening.)
I appreciate Engadget has nailed its flag to Blu-ray and will spin everything as good news for it, but I really think those who support BD would do better to highlight the issues with the format, so they can be fixed, rather than constantly plug the "Blu-ray is taking off!" thing that makes the site feel like the Iraqi propaganda minister...
Here's how to fix it. I'll buy the damned format if you do these:
1. Drop BD+
2. At least give some lip service to backward compatibility. Disney did the right thing by releasing Sleeping Beauty with a DVD, but this needs to become systematic. As long as DVDs are more useful than Blu-ray discs, they'll be more valuable.
Recognize the fact the world is going online, and embrace it rather than treating it as a rival or some alternate world that will never compete with Blu-ray:
3. Introduce a standardized download system
4. Support managed copy properly - the "digital copy" fiasco should give you some idea of how bad Blu-ray is with this.
5. Using 3 and 4, and introduce the ability to download and burn a movie (CPRM-controlled Blu-ray discs would make this possible for DRM-happy studios), so users can still get a permanent copy. Or let them copy to an SD card (SD supports DRM.)
Do these five, and you'll create something compelling. Continue with this ridiculous situation where, well:
- Paramount has to trash tens of (hundreds of?) Blu-ray discs because of a failed BD+ implementation
- People who buy Blu-ray discs can't expect to use them anywhere but the home theater, limiting the appeal of, say, discs aimed at children or just discs that might travel
- There are no compelling reasons to actually upgrade to Blu-ray - HD suiting a minority, who have suitable TVs and good enough eyesight - with functionality of a Blu-ray environment being no better than DVD.
it's hard for me to understand why anyone thinks this is going to take off. Because the industry will force it on consumers? How's that going to happen? Because it's better? Much of the population can't tell the difference. Because it's more convenient? But it isn't, DVD is the more convenient format. Because there are features Blu-ray has that DVD doesn't? No, there aren't.
Fix these issues. Fix 'em now. Make it work. You'll make it a success if you do. You'll never make it a success by pretending it's successful.
squiggleslash @ Sep 27th 2008 12:10PM
(That should be "tens of (hundreds?) of thousands of" in the above, somehow I missed off the "of thousands". I'm pretty sure Paramount is expecting to sell more than 100 copies of Iron Man on Blu-ray.)
THizzle7XU @ Sep 27th 2008 3:07PM
Find a new hobby. If you're making this big a deal over watching some movies, you need to reconsider some things and take the tin foil hat off.
Spiza @ Sep 27th 2008 5:12PM
I would assume that includes rental discs as well since it just says software shipments. Rental discs would make up a huge chunk of those shipments. Also, DVD weekly sales will go up at holidays like they always do. I mean, made of honor was the top title for last week, so you can't just do 52*111 to get sales for the entire year. 111 is probably a pretty low week.
Also in the magazine, you can find consumers spent 132 million on rentals. I'm not sure if this includes blu-ray or not though but one could assume either way since the chart isn't specific. I think most of us would agree that the percentage of consumers renting blu-ray over buying is higher than DVD because of the absurd prices on blu-ray discs and economics on general. Blu-Ray players are also selling, yet sales numbers have been stagnant all year.
mitchelljd @ Sep 27th 2008 11:28AM
its hard to judge market share from this week. only secondary titles, and flops came out.
hard to jump out there and say you have to buy some of these niche or flops:
Speed Racer - FLOP and horrible movie, but still managed to be #1
Transformers - old titles by now, and been on Pay TV in HD
88 Minutes - not a big title
The mist- not a big title
To me, these titles would sell more if they were a little lower priced, to be $35-40 list price is just too much. I wish studios understood this and helped grow the market, instead it is risking going the Laserdisc route.
Jim Mallory @ Sep 27th 2008 11:52AM
As soon as someone comes out with a single movie $100.00 disc and the minimum price for for a stripped down basic player (that couldn't freeze frame on CLV discs) is $400-$500 (all in mid 90s money no less) and a usable player at $700.00 and both the players and the discs could only be bought at specialist boutique stores (usually at list price). Then we can talk about BluRay and Laserdisc pricing. With players and software at about every major retailer (Sears, Kmart, Target, Wal*Mart, Costco, etc.) plus on-line...BluRay is a widely available bargain compared to Laserdisc.
You "kids" never had it so good.
Ron @ Sep 27th 2008 11:36AM
Try some decaf.
Mr_Fizzlepop @ Sep 27th 2008 6:21PM
Ok, tried to post Twice in reply to the first post by Multi-format-mayhem.
Trying just a post to see if that was the problem or what, disregard othewise, thank you.
"The Nielson numbers are just a statistical little game, they are divorced from reality."
It might be more accurate to say that your understanding of statistics is divorced from reality.
Using titles that are only released on both formats is the only way to get a comparison.
Why not include ALL media and not just DVD, after all, you need a separate player for Blu-ray so you might as well count all media product types that don't allow you to play Blu-ray media instead of just one.
The new thing hasn't dramatically, miraculously (from a realistic business model point of view) overtaken the current leader since it's release; that's basically what you are saying.
Thank god you weren't advising Apple years ago.
If we used say Dragonfruit which is a rarer, harder to come by, higher per pound in price fruit and only in the last decade or so a fruit the average produce buyer has heard of let alone tried, based on your way of analyzing things the dragonfruit grower should consider another crop even though sales are growing and better than ever and the profit margins are higher than other fruit.
The information you posted would be foolish to dismiss totally and not consider at all, but to make it sound like it's the information that should inform how Blu-ray is doing as a product only shows what an Idiot in the ways of business you must be.
Multi-format-mayhem @ Sep 27th 2008 9:49PM
Well, some people just can't help resorting to insults when they run into the hard facts they don't like, eh?
The facts are that DVD sell around 1.7 billion units in the USA.
Blu-ray can't even match 1% of that.
So let's have nmo more of this transperant BS about 8%, 10%, 12% etc.
It's an obvious load of PR BS.
What's up with facing reality?
Why do some insist on misleading?
The answer's obvious, the cheer-leaders are out to do all they can to try and talk up the format.
It's just the usual manipulation, lies and ultimately pointless BS.
@ Spiza
I assume this means all disc sales everywhere so sales (whatever the deal) to rental outlets would be included - but Blu-ray also has a rental sector too.
Mr_Fizzlepop @ Sep 28th 2008 5:35PM
Maybe I'm wrong here, help me to understand.
How is the information you list telling you, or anyone else, anything about how well blu-ray is selling COMPARED to DVD?
The information you list doesn't even tell you how well DVD is doing compared to itself, the link you post does, it shows that here in the states in the last 3 years it's flat or shrinking, and worldwide it's still growing at a very small pace.
If I was someone in the DVD business I'd love it if my Bosses were so dumb I could just post a big number on the whiteboard and say "That's a really big number so obviously we are doing great." and if that's all it takes then Blu-ray is doing great since the disc sales numbers are higher in total than last year this time, heck there was a shortage of blank discs when the studios all fell behind Blu-ray early this year.
Seriously, you should look into statistics and trends information before spouting this almost totally useless information and try and make it sound like it actually says something about how well Blu-ray is doing compared to DVD.
To recap, this is about how Blu-ray is doing compared to DVD, so just posting a large number of current DVD sales doesn't tell us anything about that.
Multi-format-mayhem @ Sep 29th 2008 12:27PM
If you really can't understand the complete disconnection between the regular claims we see here of Blu-ray having 8%, 10% or 12% of the market compared to DVD, when DVD actually makes sales of 1.7 billion p.a. in the USA alone, then that's your problem.
I don't care how they scheme to make Blu-ray's performance/progress look good.
The facts are that DVD sells 1.7 billion give or take p.a.
Blu-ray doesn't even have annual sales of 2% of that and very probably not even 1% in the US.
Ditto for global sales when set against DVD's actual global annual sales of 7 billion.
I suppose I should say "yet".
But tbh considering the corner they have painted themselves into so far I'm really wondering if they will ever see sales of as much as a genuine 10% of that number (my maths makes that 170 million unit sales p.a. btw, you & Nielson & anyone else can kid yourselves however you like).
It's now known Warner are deeply unhappy at how poorly Blu-ray has been selling, particularly to all those PS3 owners (who said attachment rates are meaningless?).
There are those who say this holiday season is Blu-ray's last big hope and there are grumblings about retailers not wnating to be left holding stock which won't sell.
That sounds like the rot setting in on the dream if you ask me.
The only 'problem' DVD has is that it's a mature market.
It is not that it doesn't sell, it does, clearly and in truly enormous amounts.
No, it's not that, it's just that the CE corps and movie making gang hate the fact that DVD margins are small.
That's all this is about.
They are trying to pry people off of a format they have found perfectly good (enough).
But at these prices and with the often underwhelming high def reality it simply isn't going to happen.
Buy into Blu-ray by all means, I did.
But stop trying to fool people into believing it's going to amount to anything much more than a niche enthusiasts format.
Mr_Fizzlepop @ Sep 30th 2008 7:01PM
"If you really can't understand the complete disconnection between the regular claims we see here of Blu-ray having 8%, 10% or 12% of the market compared to DVD, when DVD actually makes sales of 1.7 billion p.a. in the USA alone, then that's your problem."
Ok, now I understand, you somehow have missed the fact that those percentages are only on Discs that have been released in both formats and are listed disc by disc in many cases.
No where are these blog posts saying Blu-ray is pulling in 10% of the total DVD sales, and I think to the vast majority(obviously not everyone as you are proof) that is crystal clear. When they say 10% they are referring to only the discs that are released both on DVD and Blu-ray and they comment on particulars regarding that in the blog posts. They are saying that in the small batch of discs released that are on both formats blu-ray is not 1% or less of the disc sales and that in specific cases it is in fact 10% or more.
That is however what makes them accurate, the fact that they only compare discs that are released in both formats so we can see how they sell against each other in the market.
IF studios flooded the market with Blu-ray versions of every DVD currently released, and keep in mind many DVD sales are examples of limited releases or double dips, it would still be months and months even with a better economy before we could really gauge how well blu-ray was doing compared to DVD. We would also have to factor in people already owning DVD copies of films as a reason for lower sales of Blu-rays.
This is the best we have right now to give us an understanding of how Blu-ray is doing in the market, and given how short it's life past the format war has been it's certainly understandable that there aren't more Blu-ray titles out yet to give us a better idea.
There was a time Horses were the personal transport most used by far in this country, that has changed and it didn't happen overnight or in just a year or two. The number of horses sold in the first few years cars were available was little indication of how well cars were selling or of their chance at supplanting horses as the favored form of personal transport.
I hope that cleared up my view of why I don't see the information you posted as useful in gauging Blu-ray's possible success.
Roberto Egretti @ Sep 28th 2008 3:41PM
21th?
Black Bloke @ Sep 28th 2008 3:42PM
21th?