Now here's something to get that noodle of yours thinking. While it's arguable that Sony's PS3 is the
very best Blu-ray player out there for the money, at least one skeptic isn't so sure that the BD capabilities will even be on the inevitable
PlayStation 4. Don Reisinger has stated that "Blu-ray is the LaserDisc of its time," which he explains by saying that "it's not nearly as useful as the DVD that it's trying to supplant, and the future is coming on so quickly that it may not have the time to cement itself in the industry before HD downloads become the next big thing." Of course, he's suggesting that digital downloads will make such a huge impact in such a short amount of time that a BD player on the PS4 will be nearly unnecessary. In reality, this argument is much more about the ability of BD to catch on before
it's ran over by streaming video, but we suppose the answer to that could indeed have an impact on the PS4's positioning. Have a think -- do you follow this logic, or are you screaming "bollocks"?
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Harley3k @ Sep 16th 2008 4:11PM
Of course it will - don't be stupid.
Cringley-esque speculation type headlines due tend to get published though.
Mp3 @ Sep 17th 2008 2:28PM
What a stupid headline. First of all, will the PlayStation 8 have holographic disc capabilities? It's about just as much conjecture to discuss that.
Secondly there's just no way the mass market will have fast enough data connections for streaming video, even 10 years from now. Do you realize how many millions of Americans still use an antenna for TV? I'm talking rabbit ears damn it!
Third, all you have to do is loose your iTunes library once due to an HDD crash (or any other reason) to learn that yes, physical discs are just better. How about taking a movie over to your friend's house? Or better yet, a video game? Good luck doing that with downloaded content.
Who is this jackoff Don Reisinger anyway, and why are we discussing his inflamitory statements?
Frankenstein Black @ Sep 17th 2008 7:30PM
Here, here. On what planet is this awesome bandwidth available and how can I get there? Doesn't this fool realize that game content/size will only grow in the future? Heck, a free 3 day ship of a blue ray game title from Amazon will be MUCH faster than that 10-25GB (that's Gigabyte) download. And this will not change any time soon. The Dope!
vypergts @ Sep 16th 2008 4:18PM
I agree and if it means the PS4 will cost less at launch time, then more power to them.
andyg8180 @ Sep 16th 2008 4:19PM
Hard Drives Crash... And DRM is such a beeeeoch to deal with if you want to redownload... nothing is going to kill the DVD, but Blu is a very close successor...
Shoulda been HD-DVD... stupid Toshiba... :-(
Michael @ Sep 16th 2008 6:00PM
and blu ray doesnt have drm?
The Aggie CEO @ Sep 16th 2008 6:54PM
last I checked DRM on a DISC doesnt make MILLIONS of people mad.........well that is except for PC games which cant be installed more than 3 times(Mass Effect, Spore)........
and thats STILL proving his point due to the fact that after the installs allotted are used you are made to go thru hoops to get more.......
so SURE Blu-ray is DRMed but it doesnt prevent me from playing a game or watching a movie........
SimbaDogg @ Sep 17th 2008 1:40AM
there's are a few games that kind of tell me that the next gen Playstation will contain a blu ray drive, heavenly sword being one. Then there are a few games that SCREAM to me that the next gen playstation will contain a blu ray drive, MGS4 (metal gear solid 4), and the upcoming LBP (little big planet), both clocking in at about 50 GB and 40GB respectively.
http://www.joystiq.com/2008/09/10/littlebigplanet-fills-up-blu-ray-disc/
http://www.joystiq.com/2008/03/02/kojima-mgs4-too-big-for-50-gb-blu-ray-disc/
considering that many people think that when some of the next consoles drop, there may be ray tracing available...there's no way any dvd will work. broadband speeds are great, but w/ some companies capping bandwidth ( http://www.engadget.com/2008/08/29/comcast-set-to-begin-bandwidth-capping-come-october-1st/ ) there's no way that people will be able to download 50 gigs a pop for video games.
Matt G @ Sep 16th 2008 4:21PM
I think he's full of shit.
True, BD MOVIES may not be as big of a deal by then, but BD as a media to hold game data isn't going anywhere soon. Is there a cheaper, more compact, tougher and easier to produce/distribute medium that can hold ~50GB of data and transfer it to a system quickly enough for a game?
I think not, really.
(I could be wrong! hahaha)
TVGenius @ Sep 16th 2008 6:37PM
I don't see how these idiots contend that we're going to be downloading movies in two years when only 5 movies in 1080p will exceed what Comcast would allow you to download in a month, and that with the fastest internet connection I can get at my house, it would take me about a week to download one 1080p movie. Please, Almighty Mr. Don Reisinger, heir of whoever died and made you king, please let me know when you'll be digging the trench for the T1 line to my house.
Wes @ Sep 16th 2008 6:57PM
Hey now TVGenius, don't forget that 10 years ago, the majority of americans felt anything better than 5.6kb/sec was fast. Even getting dsl with 12kb/sec or the double-speed traditional models at up to *shocker* 10kb/sec was considered a good step up.
About 5 years ago, cable internet maxed out at 50kb/sec down, 20kb/sec up. I can now do for only $5.00 more a month in price 500kb/down and 100kb/sec up. The Ps3 is suppose to have a 10-year-plan and if Sony does stick to that, the ps4 won't be out for another 7 years. I could easily see in seven years my internet company offering 2000kb/down // 200kb/upload. Why not? 4x the speed in 7 years isn't really stretching that far with how fast both computers and the internet in general evolves.
When higher speeds come available, its only natural that bandwidth will increase too. Not everyone is stuck with comcastic.
ne01 @ Sep 16th 2008 10:05PM
Wes, man, you need to check the headlines every once in a while. For pretty much everyone but Verizon (and for them, only with FiOS), their networks are absolutely maxed out. The buzzwords today are "traffic shaping" and "bandwidth caps" (read: artificial slow-downs on heavy users and paying extra if you go over a certain amount of usage per month). Not necessarily everyone will do both of those things (Comcast is already doing both), but the trend is definitely in that direction. Not towards better/faster service. You're right that for a while things we're trending upward, but there's only so much speed you can force out of coaxial cable...
See:
http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/ATT-Again-Hints-At-Bandwidth-Crackdown-97753?nocomment=1
http://www.maximumpc.com/article/news/its_official_comcast_announces_250gbmonth_bandwidth_cap
Mike @ Sep 16th 2008 4:23PM
Of course PS4 will have BD...the question is what will the XBOX3 have? It will probably be out 1st 2010 or 2011.
Spiza @ Sep 16th 2008 5:01PM
How about the Wii's successor?
The Aggie CEO @ Sep 16th 2008 6:45PM
of COURSE the Wii's successor wont.........
Nintendo STILL says that HD isnt mainstream enough........so why would they............
WebDev511 @ Sep 16th 2008 7:24PM
If you're buying a shrink wrap game for the xbox 720 it will be on flash, but download will be the preferred method of distribution.
wreckedchevy @ Sep 16th 2008 4:28PM
i think you should bring back nfinity and TT so we can get full enjoyment out of this article
CDN Crockett @ Sep 16th 2008 4:29PM
Will it you ask,
God no! Digital is the way of the future!!!
CDN Crockett @ Sep 16th 2008 8:36PM
Digital downloads is what I meant to say.
$ony sucks!!! I don't have anythings $ony in my house except music CD's and DVD's.
DEEZNUTZ @ Sep 16th 2008 4:40PM
If we take Sony's word and the PS3 is still on a 10 yr cycle, then I agree that the PS4 will NOT have a BD player.
But I'll predict you one better... Sony will not release a PS4. I honestly think they will drop out of the console biz and just cut their losses on the PS3. MS will either reign supreme in the next gen, or face some serious competition from APPLE entering the gaming console arena... maybe a combined console from Apple and Nintendo???
The Aggie CEO @ Sep 16th 2008 6:48PM
cut their losses????
you DO realize that the PS3 will be making profit within the next 8 months right???
well that is IF they dont cut the price.........
Why drop out of of ONE system that hasnt done that well???
Hell Sega had the Sega CD, Sega Saturn, & Dreamcast........although the Dreamcast was pretty good........
dream on buddy.........
DEEZNUTZ @ Sep 16th 2008 11:20PM
@Aggie,
Touchy fanboy... 8 months huh? Yeah, I heard that one over a year ago.
I love my PS3, but even Stringer would agree with me about the mistakes they made this gen.
Try commenting once they turn a buck.
SimbaDogg @ Sep 17th 2008 2:24AM
you are a loser if you think sony would drop out to cut their losses, they may have erased all their GAINS they made through the ps2, but as a whole their gaming decision isn't nearly as red as MS is. Apple enter gaming? yeah fucking right...steve jobs and his extreme my way or the highway development mantra would never win over 3rd party support. By the way, all their almost all their losses on the ps3 were based on the implementation of BD, i would imagine the cost of a BD drive would be cheaper in 4-5 years time.
oh yeah, as far as nintendo, i believe they already said dont expect anything as game changing as the wii, more of a N64 to gamecube revolution (more bland then exciting if you catch my drift), not even close to the SNES to N64 jump.
Mike @ Sep 17th 2008 5:03AM
When they say the ps3 will have a 10 year life...they are refering to how long games will comee out for it and other ways they will support it. Notice they don't say we will wait 10 years before releasing the ps4???
Life equals support not exsclustivity
Casey Vincent @ Sep 16th 2008 4:40PM
With bandwidth caps there has to be another way to get games. I can see it now "I would like to play ____, but I already downloaded a game this month!"
The Aggie CEO @ Sep 16th 2008 6:50PM
basically...........
people fail to note that.........I mean I dunno how it is in England........but in the states more and more ISPs are adding BANDWIDTH caps.........
now If PS3 games are FILLING 50GB discs how does he propose we get games??? 50GB SSD HDDs maybe?? lol CARTRIDGE anyone??
DEEZNUTZ @ Sep 16th 2008 4:43PM
Uhhhhhhh.....
Blu-Ray IS digital...
so are HD DVD's
so are DVD's
so are CD's
DEEZNUTZ @ Sep 16th 2008 4:56PM
This was a reply to CDN Rocket... F*ck'n comment system!
tv @ Sep 16th 2008 4:43PM
It'll have to have it with Comcast capping users @ 250GB per month, you won't be getting too many HD movies from any service with that kind of cap.
Santica @ Sep 16th 2008 4:49PM
It Is funny how thes guys keep touting about downloads/streaming, while they keep forgetting that people want to own things... or have something to grasp on, thats why we like to buy and collect all sorts of things.
Streaming and downloads will be very popular in the future, as we have seen the same thing happening with MP3's "taking off" so I am not denying the impact of the "internet age"
But we dont like paying for 0's and 1's. Or as you have might have seen, people dont like to buy the media, they pirate or download it from the web, we cant appreciate anything we take for granted people download since its easy and very available to them, saying "EASY COME EASY GO" comes to my mind first.
Problem is that big companys like m*cros*ft, think that since there is already established infrastructure to "cultivate" on demand services trough web, they will just assume that people like to pay for things that were previously "free" .
In my opinion driving down disc sales is A big mistake for large companys because with blu-ray ,you have 5 times the quality of current streaming media and potential for higher even higher quality, It is one of the only leverages companies have, and they dont seem to get it.
Just my 5 cents...
daniel @ Sep 16th 2008 5:08PM
man reason mp3. succeed was there so easy to steal. people like getting stuff for for free. But not matter what you you still have to have some form of hard copy available. not every has the money to pay for internet access or high speed. plus even if ps3 last 10 years is still see having a blu-ray drive. i mean there just down startin to make disk that what 400 and 500 gigs and I am sure they will just keep getting bigger and cheaper then any current form of memory available.
SimbaDogg @ Sep 17th 2008 2:35AM
@ daniel
i'm w/ you, people like having backups. I have 9400 DRM free songs, i can do w/ them as i please. All i ever have to worry about is backing them up, which is fine because i've burned my entire collection to disc before as a backup, and have an ipod which i semi use as a secondary traveling HD.
DRM and the ability to not back things up is one of the reasons i will never download a movie w/ any restrictions on it. There was some really cool high definition content on gran turismo tv on the ps3, but you only get to keep it for 6 months. If i buy something i want it to keep, until i lose it...i dont want it to be some glorified rental
Alex @ Sep 16th 2008 4:49PM
I think this is very possible which is bad for most of us. Movie studios have shown that they would love to have no physical media anymore. They don't want us buying movies cheaply, they want us to rent and pay each time. Downloading/streaming is perfect for their greed.
I can see how games will eventually go that way too, but it doesn't seem as practical.
Downloading eliminates the used (ebay) market, eliminates media overhead, and certain eliminates the high price of a drive in the console. However downloading a 4GB game (or 8GB whatever it might be in the near future) seems like a big P.I.T.A.
Then again, loading a whole game on the PS3 hard drive is a P.I.T.A too and they do that.
IseWise @ Sep 16th 2008 5:02PM
I say bollocks. While Phil Harrison, an former executive for the Playstation brand and Sony stated that he would be surprised if the PS4 had Blu Ray drive, I don't think we will be at a position infrastructure wise that digital distribution would be viable for large games which the PS4 will undoubtedly feature. Games are taking a pretty interesting split, where one direction is bigger, badder and more like movies, while the other direction is more toward small casual games. The smaller games can be downloaded easily, but those bigger games like MGS4, which was rumored to "barely fit" on a 50GB Blu Ray and required 5 installs onto the PS3's hard drive, are just not going to be a very practical download. I can see a shift away from Blu Ray as the main form of receiving content, but to think that PS4 will be have no Blu Ray drive at all is quite crazy I think.
And whats with his sentence about Blu Ray "It's not nearly as useful as the DVD that it's trying to supplant"? Because backing up my data onto 1 Blu Ray as compared to 5 DVD's isnt useful.
Spiza @ Sep 16th 2008 5:07PM
The size of movies is less important than the size of games. Most games will not fit on single discs next gen when games actually do run at 1080p. You could argue that Microsoft or Nintendo could use HD DVD for their games, I could especially see Nintendo doing such a thing. And no one is going to DL and have to store a large library of 20-40GB games.
kcmurphy88 @ Sep 16th 2008 5:11PM
Sony could surprise everyone and put HD DVD on the PS4. That was we can have the format war all over again!
Jimmy @ Sep 16th 2008 5:16PM
No way are downloads going to overtake DVDs any time soon. No way is Blu-ray going to die off any time soon.
Consider the music industry and mp3s and the iPod. This amazing little device has been on the market for six years? Napster, iTunes, piracy, and CD burners have all contributed to the downfall in sales of the venerable CD. But in 2007 the music industry sold over 300 million CDs. In fact download music is not expected to overtake CD sales until 2011 at which point CDs will still account for over 40% of music sales. This is with a product where the file sizes are minuscule in comparison to video. An entire album can be downloaded for less than 50 MB.
Now consider DVD quality video and audio. Now we are talking about nearly 100 times the file size. But lets assume really compressed video and sound and we are at 2 GB file sizes for a single movie. The time to download a movie that size is unacceptable to a large majority of the population.
If you step on up to full size games then you are talking file sizes in excess of 10 GB now. In another five or six years the average size might be 40 GB per game. No way in hell is bandwidth going to support that where I live within the next decade.
One last thing. The idea that digital downloads will replace physical media is pretty silly. It will exist side-by-side with physical media. But until someone figures out how to allow me to swap, loan, and buy used downloads then I will keep my optical discs.
jacob.kaad @ Sep 16th 2008 5:20PM
Blu Ray might not be if PS3 is on ten year cycle but another media will. Physical media isn't going away. Internet speeds will never reach the needed levels for the quality of Bluray to be there. It is physically possible to make speeds there with fiber but companies won't allow it to go that high that quickly because every step in speeds they make the more the charge so they'll do it slowly. Plus the main and performance consumer electronics manufactures will never want to move on past physical media (no box needed that they can sell no media to insert if they do).
Mitch @ Sep 16th 2008 5:20PM
There simply isn't enough internet bandwidth out there for people to download blu-ray quality movies, and it will be at least 10 years until that changes.
Now if Hollywood could sell all new release blu-ray discs at 19.95 msrp this format is going to take off big time! Digital downloads will never EVER replace physical media for the vast majority of consumers.
For instance I wanted to watch 24 season 6 the other day, sure I could have downloaded it for 45 bucks or whatever from itunes or amazon. Or screw it, I could OWN the physical disc in higher quality DVD for much less money. No brainer.
The Fuzz 53 @ Sep 16th 2008 5:23PM
Due to the absolutly deplorable telecom companies we have here in the states, digital download will never be allowed to flourish. Why would we use the cable co.'s on demand service if we can download purchase a movie off of a website or service? That is the real reason behind the bandwith caps and metered usage they are all trying to implement. And not to mention that their only real competitors, Directv and Dish network's ondemand services use an internet connection. And they're also to cheap to switch their networks over to fiber to make their networks run as well as possible.
US Telecom companies will be the death of digital downloads, mark my word.
DrXym @ Sep 16th 2008 5:30PM
The PS4 is so far off I find this speculation utterly pointless. If when it does appear everyone in the world has broadband fast enough to handle 10Gb+ games then maybe it won't do blu ray. But then again blu ray means backwards compatibility, for games, movies and music on Blu, DVD and CD. It also means people can continue to buy movies & games from bricks and mortar stores. Since the PS4 doesn't publicly exist in any form and won't for years to come, I don't know where the hell this question even comes from or what significance it has either way.
Michael Sterling @ Sep 16th 2008 5:54PM
Without being too verbose, here's why I think Blu-ray has a long life ahead of it and downloads just won't take off like people think:
1) We've about reached the maximum image size in the home. 1080p is the highest resolution that anyone is going to need to view with the naked eye AT HOME, so coming up with some larger-capacity format that holds 4K movies will be pointless. A larger-capacity format would be good for holding MORE content (i.e. a trilogy on one disk), but that's as far as I see something like that going.*
2) As has been pointed out here, people like having a *thing* to own -- especially a thing that's transferable among devices. A BD movie can be played in any BD player. A downloaded movie likely has DRM that prevents it from playing on anything, and even if it didn't (good luck) the process of moving the file from here to there still has a long way to go before it's worth the trouble.
3) People like to use as few "plugged in" things as possible. With a DVD or BD you can stick the disk in a player and view it on a screen. Done. When you have to start relying on a net connection (which could be down) and a home network (which could have issues or security problems) AND a thing on which to play the file AND a display on which to view the file, it's too damn complicated.
* - I could foresee a time when movies aren't delivered on optical disk, but on ROM flash media. Smaller and compact, this could be pretty cool, but it could result in another format war over which media to use, what DRM to have, blah blah.
Harmin @ Sep 16th 2008 6:00PM
Seeing as how MS gained the upper hand this generation with the first release of the 360, you can be sure Sony will try and do the same with the ps4. I'd say the new consoles come out around 2011 so I do not know what the heck this guy is talking about. There is no infrastructure or ability to have potentially 50-100 gb games to be downloaded. Even Xbox Live which is clearly the "frontrunner" for such technology can never handle 2-3 million downloads of halo 4 simultaneously on launch day for the next console.
We're now entering a phase where companies are putting "caps" on broadband access to the highest users. So to say that, in just a few years, we are going to be downloading 50 gb or more games through the internet is ridiculous. Most online services such as xbox live have a hard time handling all the users playing multiplayer on launch let alone offering games to be downloaded at the same time.
Why do people not see that Blu-ray soon will be the dominant physical format just in terms of storage capability, mass production, Studio support etc... I loved HD-DVD and still buy cheap movies whenever I can but nothing and certainly not digital downloads will be able to offer what blu-ray can especially in the next 5 years. Video is a different medium than audio. You can fit 20,000 songs in your pocket on an mp3 player and that is why CD's failed. But you always need somewhere to watch movies. Either your computer or television.
MI @ Sep 16th 2008 6:15PM
Yea, but Don Reisinger is a tool.
Spiza @ Sep 16th 2008 8:33PM
I didn't even realize that was the guy that was saying this. That guy is the biggest idiot ever. Maybe we should pull out the old stories of his where the Wii was going to tank this year (he posted that this year btw). He's funny, but I don't see how CNET continues to pay this guy or post his BS.
Ben, Steve, get this idiot on the podcast. He'll disagree with you since you guys are pretty smart on most things, and he's stupid on everything.
MegaZone @ Sep 16th 2008 6:16PM
Bollocks.
Downloads have a *long* way to go before they come close to the quality of HD on Blu-ray. And streaming isn't even in the same league.
And that's today with 1080p 2D HD content. The industry is already looking at Blu-ray as a medium for 3D home content, and 4k resolution HD. Which will be far more demanding and WELL outside the capabilities of any reasonable download.
Edwin @ Sep 16th 2008 6:19PM
How can someone come in to my apartment, browse my movies and borrow one for a night if it is a download or stream? I am pretty sure they would be encrypted so you couldn't burn them.
Edwin @ Sep 16th 2008 6:24PM
And also...what about the millions of people who don't have broadband or access to it? I now those people are the vast minority on place like Engadget, but there are a TON of people who aren't early adopters. A BD Player is so much easier as a one-time solution rather than upgrading computers, modems, DVD Burners, etc.
Plus having the physical media is just more fun.
A1 @ Sep 16th 2008 6:24PM
BOLLOCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Krazy9000 @ Sep 16th 2008 6:37PM
One word as to why downloads for movies won't take over... EXTRAS! Director Commentary, making of documentaries, hi def audio tracks, the list goes on and on. Downloads work so well for music because when you download a cd you get exactly what you get when you actually buy the physical cd. Music doesn't include extras... hence the upside of just downloading. I will never give up the extra content I get with BDs.