Samsung UK exec says Blu-ray "has five years left"
While we can't say if it represents a general sentiment at Samsung or not, the company's UK director of consumer electronics, Andy Griffiths, sure went out on a bit of a limb in a recent interview with Pocket-lint, with him saying that Blu-ray has, to paraphrase David Bowie, only "five years left," and that he "certainly wouldn't give it ten." He did say, however, that he thought 2008 would be Blu-ray's year, adding that "it's going to be huge", and that Samsung is "heavily back-ordered at the moment." As for Samsung's future after Blu-ray's supposed demise, Griffiths seems to think that OLED will be the next big thing, and he's pegging 2010 as a possible date for it to become mainstream and replace LCD. He didn't offer a prediction as to when it will die out though.
[Thanks, Big W]
[Thanks, Big W]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Alex @ Sep 3rd 2008 6:52PM
awww shoot I was only giving it 2 more years. I hope they can get BD 2.0 mainstream by 2010
Mr. E @ Sep 3rd 2008 6:53PM
Oh boy, here we go again. Well, I can't connect to the original site from my current location, so I don't know if he proposed what he thinks will succeed Blu-ray, but my guess is the typical idea I see bandied about that downloading is going to replace it.
Two reasons why it won't, at least certainly not in only five years:
Bandwidth caps in the U.S. mean that 1080p HD downloads in quantity are out, period. This means that unlimited download HD rentals is out as well, which means we'll still have to own physical media or downloads, or rent physical media if we want to watch a lot of movies at home. I love the idea of being able to watch any movie ever made on demand, but it's not happening in five years, that's for sure.
Downloading movies is not like downloading music. I like downloading music so I can get the three great songs from an album for $3, instead of spending a minimum of $10 on the CD. This cost savings doesn't translate to movie downloads. What am I going to do, download my three favorite chapter stops from a movie? So if I have to pay the same amount to buy a movie via download as get the BD, why wouldn't I opt for the physical copy. If I want to put it on a media server later, I have a built-in backup.
Certainly Blu-ray will be supplanted in the future. Maybe with a solid state alternative? That will still be at least ten years away though.
D-shan @ Sep 4th 2008 7:34AM
hahahaha What?!?!? What do you mean "succeed Blu Ray"?!?!? WTF? It hasn't succeeded at all. Until Blu Ray has a decent share in the market, its not a success at all. At this point its sales are dismal at best as consumers are opting out. The only way this technology survives is if they push hard in the digital storage/PC market AND make it affordable (as flash media is getting cheaper by the day). I'd hardly be waving the Blu-Ray flag at this point.
XDragon @ Sep 4th 2008 8:57AM
Mr E,
since its clear that very few people understand the situation (i'm not saying you're one of them), I'm giong to re-post a comment from another news bit with the hope that people think before they say things:
Its the same old thing with the haters and fanboys every week!
Look this is how this works period.
Regardless of which format won, the hd format will not be competing with dvd in any way but 1, new releases! That's why blu is doing well and thats why it looks like its not doing well. The week with big movie 1st time releases on both formats always shows a large spike in blu sales. Thats all any new format can do to "compete" with the existing format.
Its very simple and people are making it too complicated because we all define "doing well" differently. Fanboys will always find the good, haters will always find the bad and realistic people see the line between the two. Blu is not competing with dvd, its replacing new release dvds on a going forward basis for people who can enjoy the benefits it has to offer. Few people will buy a new blu release of an old, less then average movie for $25-$30 on blu when its $5-$10 on dvd. People will upgrade their favorite movies to blu and eventually if companies move away from dvd to push blu and as prices come down, thats the only time blu can "take over" dvd. People who expect more from any format replacing dvd simply either don't understand the situation or they are not realistic. As someone who likes technology without being a fanboy or a hater, I can say that blu is performing as expected which is a good thing but it will continue on a slower path until prices come down but it will also improve as hd tvs continue to get a larger share of the market. Hate it or love it all you want, but understand the big picture and understand that hd in general is still not something everyone can afford.
As for me, I'm replacing a handful of favorite movies and buying just the big new releases on blu. If its not a big movie that I know i'll love to watch many times, then I get the dvd.
mrdrifter @ Oct 6th 2008 12:10PM
DSHAN - Wow. Open a dictionary and look up the multiple meanings of "succeed." Or you can go to google and type in "definition: succeed"
Here's an excerpt from the first result, 1 being what Me. E meant, and 2 being the only definition you know:
1. To come next in time or succession; follow after another; replace another in an office or a position: She succeeded to the throne.
2. To accomplish something desired or intended: "Success is counted sweetest/By those who ne'er succeed" Emily Dickinson.
Deadhouseplants @ Sep 3rd 2008 6:56PM
Yeah, I'm going to take tech advice from Matlock, no thanks.
Michael @ Sep 3rd 2008 7:42PM
I think you have five years left.
Mark @ Sep 4th 2008 4:09AM
If he gives it only five years, what does he think will replace it? Certainly not VOD and digital downloads while consumers are faced with literally dozens of competing, incompatible formats.
Big Wizz @ Sep 4th 2008 9:47AM
Ummm...why can't my name be displayed (I submitted the tip)???
XDragon @ Sep 4th 2008 10:45AM
75% of the time that I submit, its shows up without the credit; sad isn't it?
Nate @ Sep 4th 2008 10:14AM
I love how everyone just assumes that the entire world has broadband. There are millions of Americans that rely on dial up for internet access to this day. Crazy, I know, but true. Broadband prices have remained remarkably stable. The people that don't want to pay for it now are unlikely to want to start paying for it in the near future. Therefore technologies like BD will remain relavent. The storage available on a DVD is simply not enough.
XDragon @ Sep 4th 2008 10:48AM
Its nice to see that a few more people get whats going on! :)
Alex @ Sep 4th 2008 2:30PM
great analogy. People that don't want to pay for dialup are most likely going to jump in to a several hundred dollar Blu Ray deck. Duh
XDragon @ Sep 4th 2008 5:00PM
He never says that.
The most popular alternative to HD Digital Downloads is Optical Media which is Blu-Ray so if the bandwidth someone is using is dial up, then Blu-Ray is the way to go for those people.
Chris Crowley @ Sep 6th 2008 9:51PM
In the consumer space, bluray may still be debatable. However in the enterprise space it's pretty much taken over. Especially in medical imaging (PACS / RIS, etc), Information archiving in finance, archiving from tape to bluray discs (atchive life 50 yrs plus, no deacitylation like tape etc. So it really depends on where you look. Blu Ray has actually been around for a while but not in the consumer space. It's been doing well in the consumer space of late though. There are ancilliary industries (gaming etc) that are helping blu ray. SO for every playstation sold, you just gained a blu ray customer.
CC
http://phantomdatasystems.com/bluray_server.html
theboi @ Oct 6th 2008 12:55PM
Industry have been echoing the statement of pure online media for years. but it just isn't happening for many reason.
by the main reason is the people who go out and get high end videos are collectors you cant put a digital file on the auction block. people will always want hard media.
the change going in is that its gonna be another way for consumer to obtain medai.
just like net flix hasn't replace brick & Mordred stores but its a different means in witch to rent.
Zak Kayyal @ Nov 25th 2008 10:59AM
Album's are supposed to be listened to as a complete entity so, based on your logic, yea, why not just download your favourite scenes from films?
sndmn23 @ Dec 23rd 2008 8:39AM
Albums, for the most part, have not been produced with the idea that people are going ot be listened to as a single entity in a long time. Nobody really does that anymore.