Asia-Pacific Sony VP suggests Blu-ray Discs will outsell DVDs by 2011
Gettin' antsy, are we Sony? Barely a month after the Entertainment Merchants Association pumped out a report suggesting that Blu-ray Disc sales could exceed that of DVDs by 2012, along comes a bullish Sony VP from the Asia-Pacific region to state otherwise. Sony Pictures Home Entertainment's Tim Meade has asserted that the "sales volume of BD movie discs may surpass that of DVDs in 2011," following market reports in the US that indicate that the "global sales ratio of Blu-ray movie discs to DVDs will rise to an estimated 40:60 in 2010." Can't knock a guy for being hopeful, right?
Filed under: Industry, Blu-ray, Other formats, Sony
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
worldbfree4me @ Aug 1st 2008 9:28PM
Like I mentioned previously, BDA should focus on making this so called HD media portable(playable in all drives)..ie DVD can play at home, office, car, relatives etc...Blu will only play at your home because the chances of your neighbors or in-laws owning an actual Blu player are slim to none. Sharing a movie you like with others is important and Blu just cannot be shared or even pirated in great numbers at this point.
Rob @ Aug 1st 2008 9:32PM
Dream on. DVDs are not going anywhere any time soon. Unless Blu-ray movies and players lower in price to a reasonable price for the masses, Blu-ray will remain the bragging toy of the techies. I love HD just like anyone else. But, the majority of people I know are quite satisfied with sd dvds.
Gus @ Aug 1st 2008 9:42PM
What a dreamer, to do that HD TVs would have to be better than 50% of the market and BR would have to have 100% of the HD TV market or differing ratios to give the same result, not a chance!
Patrick @ Aug 1st 2008 9:45PM
I'm sick of all these predictions on whether or not Blu-ray will do this, or DVD will do that, etc. It takes absolutely no skill and no real knowledge of the industry to make a prediction, and your chance of being correct (or incorrect) is 50%. Sheesh.
Mr. E @ Aug 2nd 2008 12:02PM
Exactly. Even the polls we keep seeing are next to useless, because we all know how fickle consumers are. They may claim that they have no interest in something, and then as soon as their neighbor/relative/friend gets it, they're all over it. On the flipside, they could be all excited about something, until they hear it trash talked by someone they respect, and suddenly it becomes garbage in their mind.
The only numbers that matter are year-over-year sales trends. Other than that, it's all just guesswork and needless hand-wringing.
Gus @ Aug 1st 2008 9:47PM
What a dreamer, to do that HD TVs would have to be better than 50% of the market and BR would have to have 100% of the HD TV market or differing ratios to give the same result, not a chance!
Gus @ Aug 1st 2008 9:48PM
What a dreamer, to do that HD TVs would have to be better than 50% of the market and BR would have to have 100% of the HD TV market or differing ratios to give the same result, not a chance!
Gus @ Aug 1st 2008 9:48PM
Whats with this posting system!!!!!!
Mr. E @ Aug 2nd 2008 11:59AM
For some reason it's not showing comments immediately. That DOESN'T mean it wasn't received, though. Patience, grasshopper.
mntwister @ Aug 1st 2008 11:19PM
I would assume that by 2011, blu-ray players will be available for what a dvd player costs now. I would also assume with higher volume, the movie prices will be lower for blu-rays as well. So which will the consumer buy in the year 2011, the dvd version in standard def or the blu-ray in high def? Will they buy a $50.00 dvd player or perhaps a $100 blu-ray player? I think by that time with so many high def televisions, they will go blu. Yes they will keep their dvd collections (as I will, many of the classics I own won't be available for years on blu). But the nice thing is they can play both on a new blu-ray player which will upscale their dvd's.
I don't think that this year, so far, is any indication of the success or lack thereof for blu-ray. Economy is terrible, prices for players and movies are still high (as they were in year 2 of dvd as well). I think 2009 will be the breakout year for blu-ray disc, with 2008 Holiday season kicking it off.
Consumers will be replacing their dvd players as well. I don't think they would buy another dvd player in 2011 if they can get a blu-ray player for $99-150. I certainly can see these predictions as plausible. But there is also the download thing, but I feel both will survive and do very well.
Spiza @ Aug 2nd 2008 12:59AM
I think 2011 is right on. Not because Blu-Ray will be half of what DVD is now, but because I see SD quality movies being transferred to digital download like netflix's service.
RockinOscar @ Aug 2nd 2008 1:56AM
this is all PR garbage. i find it really hard to believe BD will outsell DVDs by even 2015, since these type of announcements are clearly to please the stock holders, and for something else for us that went blu to brag about.
it is easier to rent/buy a SD DVD than BD since SD DVD and 4:3 crt tv's are the norm ALL OVER THE WORLD for people who are even fortunate to have a tv in the first place.
@mntwister
call me when you see a BD player for $9.98.
WebDev511 @ Aug 2nd 2008 3:08AM
By 2011, HD DVD will come back into the fold and Netfinity will be re-instated.
Okay, neither will happen, but they are only slightly less likely than blu out selling DVD.
Who knows, maybe Blu will still be in second place behind SD downloads. That would be ironic.
Fred @ Aug 2nd 2008 5:45PM
lol, that was great.
I don't even think it will be at 50% of DVD.
But hey, i'm glad he is shooting with high expectations. Now how can we get him to drop prices of the movies???
DrXym @ Aug 2nd 2008 6:49AM
DVD is a great format but I see no reason to think it will experience a resurgence. HD is the future and DVD doesn't do HD. Lots of people are going to be replacing their analogue SD TVs in the next few years and they're going to buy HD TVs. Its virtually impossible to buy an SD set these days even if you wanted to and the people who do (i.e. those without much money) hardly influence sales of discs. With HD sets people want HD content to play on them. Blu Ray is clearly a shoe-in.
I wonder if 2011 is ambitious though. It took longer than that for DVD sales to outstrip VHS. It will obviously happen at some point. Maybe the fact that BD players are backwards compatible will mean it happens a lot faster than the move from VHS.
squiggleslash @ Aug 2nd 2008 7:41PM
Don't over state the case for HD content, otherwise you're likely to be surprised. Just because people are buying HDTVs does not mean DVDs suddenly look unsuitable. Most HDTVs display DVDs with extraordinary quality. I sincerely believe, based upon the drop in Blu-ray share since the peak a few months ago, that a significant number of people who "tried" Blu-ray after the HD DVD rout are actually going back to DVD - not so much because the quality is as good (obviously it isn't), but because the quality improvement over DVD is not worth the extra money.
The other issue to remember is it's one thing to replace a 25" CRT SD TV with a 42" Plasma HDTV, where obviously HD feeds are going to be important, and another to replace the "bedroom" TV with something less than 30". Just because people cannot buy SDTVs does not mean they can't buy low cost, smaller, sets.
2011 seems optimistic, but in a way it's an important goal for BD's backers to aim for. The longer it takes, the more likely it is BD will become irrelevant.
Mr. E @ Aug 2nd 2008 12:04PM
2011/2012 is not right now. I think that's the point.
Red @ Aug 2nd 2008 5:27PM
It's hard to believe how short sighted people are. 2011 is quite a way off. Analog T.V. hasen't even been shut off yet. Just think how many people are going to be going into stores at the start of March and saying things like "my T.V. dosen't work anymore, I need a new one" It still works; but there are lots of sales people that are going to be selling cheap HDTV's with digital cable pakages, and chances are that by March of Next year; becasue of Chinese BD players hitting shelves before christmas '08. All the big guys will be doing promos so they can "sell" their BD players with their T.V.'s. It's really going to be a shock to some people around Christmas 09 when chepo brand BD players are on the shelves at Wal Mart for $125. It just still blows me away that bloggers think that giant companies that make millions(billions) of Dollars don't know the things that you ppl know. They KNOW that BD has to come down in price fast, way faster then DVD, they are just simply sucking people in slowly to get as many impulse buyers as they can this year($$$). Which sucks and is the reason that I bought and supported HDDVD. Life goes on.
SOCOMRAIDER @ Aug 2nd 2008 7:18PM
One question.. When did Sony hire Lyle Lovett?