Nielsen VideoScan High-Def market share for week ending July 20th, 2008
Not a big surprise that overall sales are down this week, on the Nielsen VideoScan charts courtesy of Home Media Magazine, as only one new release made the Blu-ray top ten. If we've learned anything from covering this each week, it is that a hot title makes all the difference in the world. So when Step Up 2: The Streets is the highest ranked new release, it isn't going to be a good week. This is especially true with a title like this, which doesn't really fit what we'd call the typical Blu-ray demographic -- in fact, while most Blu-ray new releases get about 10 percent of the total title share, Step Up only got 2.7 percent. Next week is sure to be better though, as the Mummy franchise should help move the needle, but even if it doesn't, 21 should be able to pick up where it left off. Interestingly, only 4 of the top 20 DVDs were not also available on Blu-ray this week, which is an all time low, while at the same week the overall Blu-ray share is down to 8 percent from 12. So we'll be keeping an eye on this in the coming weeks, and see if it can help Blu break off a 15 percent share.
Filed under: Blu-ray
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
squiggleslash @ Jul 29th 2008 9:16PM
This essentially wipes out last week's blip where Blu-ray grew and DVD fell a little, and continues the trend where Blu-ray grows slower than DVD/falls faster than DVD.
It's a little bizarre, as I'd assume Blu-ray player sales as a percentage of all player sales are increasing, and Blu-ray player owners presumably want to buy a lot of stuff they already have on DVD on Blu-ray Disc. Even on slow weeks, Blu-ray should be growing at a faster pace than DVD.
Leaving aside my massive misgivings about the format, I can only assume that the damned format's just too expensive at this point. It may even be that PS3 owners, the majority of which presumably bought their machines to play games, are finding games the better value after enjoying a brief flirt with the Blu-ray Disc functionality.
The manufacturers have to get the prices down as part of the process of making BD viable. The content producers also have to get the prices down (or else face not just reduced BD popularity but punishment from companies like Netflix who are already threatening Blu-ray surcharges), and both need to fix the problems with the format (BD+, lack of up-to-date players) if the system's to gain any traction.
imonit @ Jul 30th 2008 7:14AM
Too expensive? You guys obviously haven't been reading this blog for very long if you think people are complaining about the price of BDs. In fact, I get 'highly ranked' when I say the opposite. That sum it up, XDragon?
Look, I support Blu b/c it's currently the only way to get 1080p content and uncompressed audio (for new releases - figured I'd throw that in there before the expected rebuttal). Anybody wanna argue that? But the problem is, the BDA does not have the luxury of the same timetable that DVD had to overtake VHS and become the dominant format before it faces legitimate competition that threatens its profitability. Prices need to come down faster and I think the healthy competition was bringing us closer to that point and at a faster pace than ending consumer confusion over competing formats has. If Blu had continued that trend after the demise of HD DVD, I think things would look a little different now. Pricing, even more than content, is the major barrier right now. But many fanboys refuse to cede this point and say that if people want cheaper players and movies then they "are people that expect things for free". That might be all in well if there weren't strong alternatives, but not many feel forced to go Blu now. I've read people gloat about Batman Begins claiming a whopping 68% of sales when it was released on Blu. But putting that in perspective, if almost a third of people are going out to get that on DVD after almost THREE years (I'll save you some time - Release date on DVD: October 18, 2005), then Blu still has a long way to go.
squiggleslash @ Jul 30th 2008 9:09AM
imonit - I agree, especially with the timetable involved.
I ended up doing a stream of consciousness in my journal about this and one thought hit me that I think should be of some concern. The most popular Blu-ray player by far is the PS3. The PS3 is not just a media player, it's also a games console, and a large number of owners, probably even the majority, of people who've bought it bought it to play games.
A completely plausible explanation for the poor sales goes like this: In January, after the WHV announcement, large numbers of PS3 owners who bought the things for the games decided to give Blu-ray a try. They figured that there was no longer any risk that the discs they bought wouldn't play in the future. They bought discs. They played them. They probably liked them. But they didn't see the increase in quality as quite as compelling as, say, your average EngadgetHD reader. Certainly not compelling enough to spend 50% more to get an HD version of the movies they want to watch.
If this is true, then it should be of some concern. It means that while HD may be popular amongst videophiles, amongst the audience at large it isn't anything like as important. This is something many of us have been worried about for a while, but Blu-ray's apparent fall over the last few months seems to confirm the anecdotal evidence.
I don't think Blu-ray can succeed in the long term because of BD+, but certainly it's way too early for it to be failing because of its actual flaws. If it fails this early, then HD itself is under attack. And that's not good at all.
squiggleslash @ Jul 29th 2008 9:16PM
This essentially wipes out last week's blip where Blu-ray grew and DVD fell a little, and continues the trend where Blu-ray grows slower than DVD/falls faster than DVD.
It's a little bizarre, as I'd assume Blu-ray player sales as a percentage of all player sales are increasing, and Blu-ray player owners presumably want to buy a lot of stuff they already have on DVD on Blu-ray Disc. Even on slow weeks, Blu-ray should be growing at a faster pace than DVD.
Leaving aside my massive misgivings about the format, I can only assume that the damned format's just too expensive at this point. It may even be that PS3 owners, the majority of which presumably bought their machines to play games, are finding games the better value after enjoying a brief flirt with the Blu-ray Disc functionality.
The manufacturers have to get the prices down as part of the process of making BD viable. The content producers also have to get the prices down (or else face not just reduced BD popularity but punishment from companies like Netflix who are already threatening Blu-ray surcharges), and both need to fix the problems with the format (BD+, lack of up-to-date players) if the system's to gain any traction.
xemumanic @ Jul 29th 2008 9:32PM
What came out last week anyway? 2 of the 3 (I think there were 3) Batman titles that came out last week are still in the top 3. Maybe if there was actually releases worth a damn this week would have mattered.
Don't believe me and think I'm just making excuses? Just wait and see if next week's numbers do better after the cavalcade of releases this week.
Tim @ Jul 29th 2008 9:33PM
+1
bill @ Jul 29th 2008 9:38PM
Nice attempt at humor Ed.
Infinity and Farce Spouter, where is the spin? I really want to hear how 7-12% of the DVD market is $hit. That CBHD is going to sweep the hearts of 2 billion ;) Chinese. Then hit the shores of North America and take down the evil Blu-ray aliens that have brainwashed us all.
Seriously though if anyone still thinks that BD is not on the way to replacing DVD; just look at BD growth year over year. From roughly 2%; to breaking 10% multiple times. At that rate by Xmas next year your looking at 50% of discs sold in the movie market will be BD.
However, you guy's that are still holding onto HDDVD are very humorous, so please keep us all entertained with your stupid game, which is not actually pissing anyone off like you morons think it is. However, it does give us all a good laugh, just because you’re on the internet and no one knows who you really are; doesn’t mean that you’re not a moron off-line. Two thumbs up guys!!
EliteBeatsAgent08 @ Jul 29th 2008 9:50PM
So you're making a pre emptive strike huh?
How Dubya of you sir...
The basic fact here is that if you were so sure that Bluray was going to replace DVD you wouldn't have to say a WORD to nfinity or bullshit teller.
Bottom line is that HD DVD died because of
1) Shitty advertising
2) Toshiba not collaborating with enough CE manufacurers.
3) sony outspending Toshiba in the bribes to movie companies.
Now before the bluray defense force comes screaming in I do NOT CARE about bribes. That's how business works most of the time in America and elsewhere. In my opinion there's NOTHING wrong with either side wanting to spend money to increase their formats chances of winning.
So sony willing to vomit millions of money to all the other studios and companies doesn't bother me in the least. I expected it to be honest considering how miserably they've failed when it comes to propriety software/hardware. Of course they desperately wanted a win this time around and were willing to go to any lengths necessary to get bluray out there.
Toshiba simply didn't play the game right and lost.
But what will happen now to HD and bluray? This holiday season will be a huge indicator of course. I'm planning on getting several big movies on bluray but if by this time next year it doesn't seem to be spreading out to a bigger more mainstream audience I think it's safe to say that bluray will remain a niche.
Tim @ Jul 29th 2008 10:37PM
Um yeah. 'Holding onto HDDVD'? You mean buying from a library of over 700 films with equivalent transfers to what you have (or will have) on Blu-ray for 50% to 75% less what you're paying? Sounds really moronic to me. Especially when you consider that all physical format HD films will end being transferred to media servers to sit right beside digital downloads in the not to distant future. I assume you're familiar with what has happened in the music industry? A few more years and storage/distribution will become affordable enough for the same thing to happen with film.
And 50% of all discs sold being BD by next xmas? In the middle of a worldwide recession for a product that most consumers perceive as marginally better than their existing DVD's? Talk about a moronic conclusion.
Gus @ Jul 29th 2008 10:42PM
Ummmm, BR is NOT 7-12% of the total market, these figures represent the top 20 only, keep believing the false data, this is spin to paint a pretty picture.
I have said it here numerous times before and the usual zealots always have their reasons for justifying the spin, the problem is, if you keep spreading enough BS people like you and especially casual observers start believing it-that's why it is done, it's called propaganda.
Yeah, I supported HD DVD, but thats dead and gone, but even if it had won, I would still want to see the true over all picture of HD reflected weekly and not this sanitized nonsense, then true growth, no matter how small can be monitored.
My business relies on true and accurate data to make a judgment on what is happening in the market, hell i could spin my figures and create a pretty picture, the only problem is, sooner or later the truth catches up, in my experience it is better to represent data warts and all, that way the end users can accurately plot their business strategies.
This result is self deluding and only appeases the fanboys and those who don't know any better.
Let the attacks begin.
Vic @ Jul 30th 2008 1:52PM
@ Tim,
I don't think you can compare music to movies. For some reason, and I believe for many others as well, I don't mind having all my music stored on my PC (or my PS3 for that matter), but I really feel the need for physical media when it comes to movies. Yes, if I could legally back up my movies to a hard drive I would enjoy the convenience factor of playing movies directly from the PS3 or from a media server, but I would still want the physical disc.
I agree that BR prices need to come down more, but they are not going to drop prices just for the heck of it. They will come down with time. At this point, I have yet to purchase a BD movie that I already own on DVD, and have stuck with renting and buying new releases only. This could change, however, if the Star Wars or Indiana Jones collections released on Blu.
And nobody really thinks you're a moron for buying discounted HD DVDs for your HD DVD player, but I hope you're not suggesting that others pick up an HD DVD player and do the same. It's still an investment that will only allow you to build-up older titles, not new releases. May as well put that money towards a Blu-ray player and discs when the price is right. I'm confident, and others should be as well, that Blu-ray will be relevant for 5-10 years into the future before digital downloads really start to take hold.
EliteBeatsAgent08 @ Jul 29th 2008 9:41PM
Lol
I'm not too happy Bluray won either and a part of me is kinda hoping that it fails miserably too so I can laugh at all the sony fanboys.
BUT I love High Def so a part of me hopes it will suceed.
Gus @ Jul 29th 2008 10:43PM
^ ^ ^ ^
Damn, that was replying to Bill.
Spiza @ Jul 30th 2008 6:40AM
Blu-Ray is 6% of sales this week though.
DVD4ME @ Jul 30th 2008 7:57AM
Spiza, 6%?? Of what?
If BR is 8% of the top 20, BR would be closer to 0.6% of the total than 6%
Spiza @ Jul 30th 2008 8:47AM
DVD - 112.23
Blu-Ray - 7.61
Can you do the math? Corporations only care about dollars.
Mr. E @ Jul 30th 2008 11:40AM
I don't know why you guys want to deny reality so much.
Okay, let me break this down for you, since apparently you're having trouble with the whole concept. See that graphic at the very top? The graph showing Blu-ray as 8% of total sales has an asterisk showing that it's only referring to the top 20 DVDs versus the top 20 BDs? Granted, that is the top 20 comparison
Now here's where it perhaps gets difficult for you guys. Notice the big numbers on each side? $112.23 million in sales of DVDs, and $7.61 million in sales of BDs. Notice how there is no asterisk by those? That means that it is the TOTAL amount of sales of each format. Your basic math lesson is 112.23 / 7.61 * 100 = 6.78% of ALL home video sales going to Blu-ray. Now, will you PLEASE face reality and admit that comparing the top 20 on each format is actually pretty close to the overall sales ratio?
No matter how much you guys want to belittle and destroy Blu-ray, MANY people are buying it and enjoying it. Maybe instead of being vindictive, you should actually consider getting a player? There will be a lot of wonderful deals near the holidays, and it would be a perfect time to get in.
Spiza @ Jul 30th 2008 8:20PM
I wouldn't be making fun of other people's math Mr. E. Yours is horrible.
Mr. E @ Jul 30th 2008 9:18PM
@Spiza, my math is right, I just inadvertently reversed figures. I noticed it right away, but the excellent forum software doesn't allow editing, so I figured I'd let it go. It of course should have been:
(7.61 / 112.23) * 100 = 6.78%. I'm not sure why you rounded down above, but whatever.
In any case, the point was to show the lie that is "This is only a top 20 comparison, so obviously Blu-ray is only making the tiniest percentage of money compared to DVD".
Gus @ Jul 31st 2008 1:29AM
Mr E (for Einstein) DVD4Me is in fact correct, it is you who has your wires crossed.
I made a comment above relating to the 8% which represents disc sales, not $s. Spiza then replied to me saying "Blu-Ray is 6% of sales this week though." .Considering I was talking sales volume, spizas reply is out of context, and the presumption can easily be made he was referring to total disc sales, not $ sales as you are referring to. DVD4ME is right in what he was saying with reference to total disc volume.
And there in lies the deception with the above graphs, they conveniently show BR at 8% sales volume of the top 20 then list total sales $ volume, the casual or unwary observer can be forgiven for thinking that blu ray represents 8% of total disc volume and at a glance, 6ish % of $ volume, the whole thing is a crock of shi* and you know it, that is total misrepresentation of the facts and portraying the product in a dishonest light.
If $ volume is being shown for the total, then so should sales volume and vice a versa. The whole $ volume thing is just more deception anyway, BR is far more expensive to produce than standard DVD so what does that figure represent, more BS that's what! The true $ representation would probably be more like 2% considering the cost differential.
The entire graph needs to be simplified and it needs to be transparent, the supplied information is dodgy at best, certainly misleading and IMO a misrepresentation of the facts.
DVD4ME @ Jul 31st 2008 6:47AM
Good on ya Gus!
Bud @ Jul 30th 2008 4:26AM
Some people have way too much time on their hands. and way too much angst over the format war.
Blu won Red lost get over it. Sales aren't great but lest wait for the whole year to come in before we scream blu is going to make it or its gonna die. Weekly trends vary widly depending on content. Content has still not caught up and is not likely to catch up until Q4 2008 or Q1 2009..
FreeRange @ Jul 30th 2008 10:28AM
Here's the catch: If the sales aren't impressive, the studios won't continue to release as many movies. This is why they dropped HD DVD; they wanted a single format because, among other things, they believed consumer adoption was hampered by uncertainty over whether the format a consumer chose would still be around in a year. Now there's a single format and 6 months later the numbers haven't increased. For whatever reason (theories are fun but just theories), the consumers aren't buying and the studios may not feel the need to continue selling. HD Videophiles like HD. Studios like making money (Who can blame them?). I'll give me them a year, 2 years, a freakin' decade before I pass judgment. But the studios have to report earnings quarterly so they're paying attention now.
Mr. E @ Jul 30th 2008 11:27AM
Bud, thanks for the being the voice of reason. There is always way too much gloating and anguish over these weekly numbers.
FreeRange, for the studios, the whole purpose of introducing a new HD format was to slow/stop the decline in profits from DVD. So really Blu-ray just needs to keep bringing in revenue to be worth it. Obviously that's happening, so it should be safe for the foreseeable future. And as long as they release titles on Blu-ray, I'm going to keep using my entertainment budget to vote for 1080p and lossless audio.
Spiza @ Jul 30th 2008 8:52AM
On a side note, the PS3 has been getting slaughtered in the US since E3 when Microsoft announced both netflix and FFXIII coming to the 360. Sony announced crappy movie downloads for high prices.
Jimmy @ Jul 30th 2008 1:21PM
Spiza,
There is no reputable place to get weekly sales numbers. I assume you are getting yours from VGChartz? Their numbers do show the 360 getting a bump in sales. But it shows more that the PS3 had a decline in sales. Neither of these have anything to do with FFXII or Netflix or the movie store.
This should be expected. The 360 has the 20GB units on clearance for $299 which is boosting their sales. At the same time Sony has announced that if you wait a month you get 80GB instead of 40GB for the same price so their sales are down.
utotmo @ Jul 30th 2008 10:54AM
I beleive that prices of Blu-ray player and movies are up is because they are still making better profit selling few at a higher price than selling more at a lower price.
Which is good. Because they know their business. If they not selling enough to make a profit at higher price they will cut it and try to sell more to make money.
bill @ Jul 30th 2008 1:22PM
Wow, touchy aren't we? Fact is that I was bored and wanted to blog a little. I don't need to be confident in BD taking over, I could care less. It's just a movie format. Oh, and by the way nice job on comparing CD's to BD's. FYI BeatsAgent08:
1) CD's are much much smaller than BD's
2) CD's still sell, granted not as much, but MP3's have been around going on 15 years now and have not completley wiped out CD's yet. Infact; certain artists still sell millions of copies of their CD's, the Eagles for instance, have sold around 4 million copies of their new CD.
3) I have an HDDVD player, bought an xa1 when it first came out, so please GUS keep assuming that I'm a Sony shill, you look so smart. Especailly when Mr.E splatters your face with egg. Did you read his post about the math GUS??
This really is too funny. It's just tech people. It's not like this has any real affect on your life in general. I guess unless you are a complete loser and it really does make you that mad that BD is going to be the next format, at which point I would suggest getting some professional help.
squiggleslash @ Jul 30th 2008 3:52PM
I really hope Blu-ray discs aren't bigger than CDs. I mean, I know people talk about Blu-ray being the next Laserdisc, but I didn't realize they were talking literally.
How do they fit them in those little HD DVD-sized cases?
(Hey, now that would be cool. For someone to announce YAHDF "Bigray Disc", comprised of DVD standard red lasers (hence making it cheap) but using an LP-sized disc for 50Gb per layer. Piracy wouldn't be an issue - no computer would come with a drive large enough to read it. That would be AWESOME!)
Mr. E @ Jul 30th 2008 4:33PM
@squiggleslash: Nicely quipped!
As a former LaserDisc owner myself, I've actually thought about what an awesome amount of storage you could fit onto a disc that size with modern technologies.
With a little math (area = pi * square of radius) we can figure out just how much a LaserDisc-sized blue laser disc would be able to hold.
LaserDisc diameter: 30cm
BD diameter: 12cm
BD spindle diameter: 4.5cm
BD Total area available for writing:
(3.14 * 6 * 6) - (3.14 * 2.25 * 2.25) = 97.1 square cm
Assuming the LaserDisc spindle is the same size as Blu-Ray's, our hypothetical disc's total available area is:
(3.14 * 15 * 15) - (3.14 * 2.25 * 2.25) = 690.6 square cm
That's 7.1 times as much potential storage, meaning we could get up to a whopping 355 GB on a dual-layer disc. I personally wouldn't mind going back to an LP-sized disc if it meant I could get that much storage space. They'd just have to make a PC peripheral that could burn them though! :)
I don't have a LaserDisc handy, and I honestly can't remember the spindle area diameter. I think it was larger than DVD's, so the calculations may be slightly off... Still cool though!
DVD4ME @ Jul 31st 2008 7:05AM
Please see above ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
DVD4ME @ Jul 31st 2008 7:10AM
Please see above ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
DVD4ME @ Jul 31st 2008 7:11AM
Please see above ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
DVD4ME @ Jul 31st 2008 7:11AM
Please see above ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Gus @ Jul 31st 2008 11:51PM
ummm Bill, I think you're the touchy one, what drugs are you on because your paranoia is out of control!
I did not mention CDs, I did not mention nor do I think you are a sony shill and if you read the later above posts, it is indeed others who have the egg on their faces, so take a chill pill mate, high blood pressure is not good for your health!
bill @ Jul 30th 2008 1:26PM
sorry BeatsAgent08; those points were supposed to be for Tim and GUS.
bill @ Jul 30th 2008 4:40PM
@ squiggleslash
LMFAO. That would be awesome! I would stack it right ontop of my Laserdisc player; Double Dragon Style. If it upscaled LD's it would take BD out for sure. Format Wars 3: Return of the LaserDisc.....
Fred @ Jul 30th 2008 11:59PM
Did I miss something here? Nfinity gets banned and everyone is happy “allegedly” and this topic starts like a drive by shooting with shoots fired one way, then the other way, and back and forth. And no Nfinity saying this stuff, hilarious.
Anyways…
I thought we were suppose to comment on the numbers… and well what this shows me is that there is absolute junk on Blu-Ray. I was on the side of HD-DVD, but it lost, I moved on, but I told people this a long time ago, competition brings out better products, and lets look at Blu. Porting over some HD-DVD stuff, and porting over junk DVD’s. Nothing innovative, nothing pushing the Blu-Ray disc. This sucks.
squiggleslash @ Jul 31st 2008 10:42AM
I think people are just commenting on why the figures are so bad, with a few of the BD partisans claiming they aren't more or less as a defensive measure, and perhaps one or two BD haters making digs anyway.
I'm an HD DVD supporter (or was.) I think HD DVD would be in the same boat as none of the advantages HD DVD has over Blu-ray are likely to have been pushed in the market at this point had WHV backed HD DVD. The problem here is not the format, but the viability of an HD alternative to DVD. If Blu-ray is, consistantly, over a period of several months now, losing marketshare to DVD, then this is a severe problem. Because, on the face of it, it doesn't make sense. More people than ever now have Blu-ray players. There is more choice than ever in the Blu-ray market. BD titles as a percentage of DVDs + BDs is increasing. BD prices are no higher than they were, and DVD prices are no lower.
There were a lot of people before things heated up in the second half of last year saying that they felt both formats were likely to lose, with one ending up being tomorrow's laserdisc to DVD's VHS. Anyone who wants a viable way to have permanent access to a library of high definition content is going to be unhappy with that situation. At this point, it seems quite possible that the only way for Blu-ray to succeed is for DVD to be phased out, which may be possible in five years if technology prices have dropped to a level that it's easy to churn out cheap, sub-$100, BD players. But that phasing out is likely to happen at a time when people decide to move away from disc-based media completely anyway.
DVD4ME @ Jul 31st 2008 7:14AM
WTF??????? Sorry peoples
bill @ Aug 1st 2008 3:39AM
Gus I wanted you to know I read your post and laughed. I'm sorry friend; Your right, keep attacking me if it makes you feel better. I, in return, will stop spining BS (propaganda/shill) as you said, just keep assuming things, and never ask for an explanation, very American of you.......
Duhoh! where did my J go. I'm so high right now I think that all the pepole that post on engadgetHD are talking about me.... so freaking paraniod right now...
Also I'm not your mate... Check an internet dating site for that kind of thing...