Nielsen VideoScan High-Def market share for week ending July 13th, 2008
by Ben Drawbaugh 
posted Jul 18th 2008 at 10:00PM
Wow, are we bad at making predictions of what the Nielsen VideoScan charts -- courtesy of Home Media Magazine -- are going to do. We thought we were going to see another ho-hum week like the last few, and then Batman went and made us fall out of our chair by single handily giving Blu-ray the best week it's ever had in the four months we've been tracking the market share. Another first this week is something that Hollywood expects to see more often -- but is too early to call a trend -- is the fact that while DVD sales are down for the week, Blu-ray is up. Now we realize right up front that a big part of the reason for this is because Batman Begins has been out on DVD for, forever, and was just released for Blu-ray this week. But you can take a look at Batman: Gotham Knight and see that head to head, the new release netted the same result as the overall share at 12 percent. This can only be a good sign for Blu-ray in regards to the future of packaged media, but again we'll remind everyone that 7 of the top 20 titles on DVD are not available on Blu-ray. Looking forward, most of the new releases should be available on Blu in the coming months, so we'd be very surprised if Blu-ray couldn't keep up this pace going into the holiday season where it really looks like it'll have the opportunity to take off.
Filed under: Blu-ray
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
FreeRange @ Jul 18th 2008 10:43PM
Hey, do you guys remember when anyone cared? Those were good times... And it was, what, only 6 or 7 months ago? Good times.
xemumanic @ Jul 18th 2008 10:46PM
I wonder whats gonna happen when more and more movies are day and date with DVD. Then you know they're gonna do what they did with VHS at some point, and release the Blu Ray version first.
Gus @ Jul 18th 2008 11:46PM
It would be a brave manufacturer that completely releases BR first, considering HD TVs represent at this point 20 something percent of the TV population, and you are only selling to a percentage of that small amount. DVD is good for every TV on the planet, a major hurdle for any HD product, you have to follow the money, DVD V VHS was a TOTALLY incomparable, and different scenario.
Wesley Burchnall @ Jul 20th 2008 12:36AM
@Gus
I thought hdtv capable sets's adoption rate was suppose to be something like 40% in the US now if you include 720p tvs, etc. Not to mention, there are households like my own where I have an hdtv and my girlfriend has her own smaller one we use in the bedroom.
Hehe, along the same lines as the original poster, if they really want to make/force blu-ray adoption, they need to rob a blockbluster from the threatre and make it blu-ray only hehe.
I mean, how many people want to see the new Batman movie? I know I do and at least 20-30 other million adult americans are looking forward to it. I would bet if you took the Batman movie and make it blu-ray only(plus not in theatres), you'd see a fairly decent sales spike in blu-ray players. Especially, if you can get the players down to $150.00 - $200.00ish range.
Of course, it might be wasted in that they'd probably have to pay $200 million or so directly to wb for the rights to do so but it might beat a $200 million dollar avertising campaign over 10 years ish.
RockinOscar @ Jul 18th 2008 10:52PM
post like yours are more trolling than truthteller's or nfinity's.
xemumanic @ Jul 18th 2008 10:56PM
I just wanted to get in a first strike before they come in and ruin the comment thread with their negative bullshit. Note my other post where I get back into the discussion at hand, if you have something to say, there's the place to post.
El perron @ Jul 21st 2008 5:19PM
SHHHHH, I can almost hear it, just wait till dark knight gets released in HDDVD, Blu Ray is going to burn in hell!
theefman @ Jul 18th 2008 11:56PM
Dont get carried away and announce the death of DVD just yet. Sales increased by over 7% and total spending is just over $8 million? Why dont you release actual unit sales numbers which actually tell the amount of discs sold rather than all these blown up percentage figures? With even sony now jumping on the downloads bandwagon with the ps3 and even their tv's its hard to see any average user willing to pay the high prices for br discs and players.
MasterCKO @ Jul 19th 2008 1:24AM
one, engadget doesn't come up with these numbers, Nielsen does and it's posted in Home Media Magazine. Bitch to those people about how you think the survey should be run, please. BTW, you know what Nielsen does? Statistics. That's their business. Out of curiosity, what's your line of work?
two, the percentage comparison of DVD vs. BD in the middle of the chart is listed as being * UNIT VOLUME, which means the numbers shown are based on the number of "units sold" boys and girls.
I swear.
As for the rest of your post (about prices and people may not be willing to buy something something), you might have a point, but Blu-ray is the only place to get 1080p video and uncompressed or at least very high-quality audio, and I'm of the opinion there will always be people willing to pay for that (or at least marketed into thinking that they want it). It's really just that simple.
squiggleslash @ Jul 19th 2008 9:02AM
It doesn't make any difference whether it's dollars or units if you look at the final "DVD rose by this amount, Blu-ray rose by this" figures. Well, ok, all the Blu-ray disc manufacturers could add 10% to the costs of their discs and thus make it appear as if BD sales increased by 10%, but there's no good reason for them to do so: indeed, DVD prices are unlikely to get lower, but BD discs are likely to lower in price over the next few months.
So, in practice, the complaint doesn't stick. This is a good week for Blu-ray sales. It's the first week in a month and a half though, and the general trend over the last three months - a few blips notwithstanding - is for BD to grow at a slower rate than DVD. Unless we have a few weeks of this, I wouldn't see it as a trend.
Gus @ Jul 19th 2008 12:04AM
Where's the list that shows units sold and NOT $ volume, of course BR is always going to have a higher $ volume figure, their more expensive for FS!
Answer a simple question, why is it listed this way and not by units sold???
Everyone knows why, it's a convenient way to spin the truth and spread BS, how unusual for the BDA to do that!
MasterCKO @ Jul 24th 2008 5:22PM
Ok, guys, let's lay this issue to bed. There is REALLY simple math going on that you all don't seem to understand. Let me lay this out:
The numbers that compare BD directly to DVD (the pie chart in the middle with percentages of top 20 BD VOLUME vs top 20 DVD VOLUME) is based on just that: VOLUME. That's UNITS SOLD. As in, this is a statistics company that knows how to compare different items with different average prices and volume is how you do it in this case.
The numbers on the left and right are percentage change from month to month. In other words, they are comparisons of DVD sales to DVD sales and of BD sales to BD sales. It is perfectly fine and reasonable to use $ for this comparison, because THE ACTUAL COMPARISON GOING ON IS BETWEEN THE FORMAT AND ITSELF. Once you've done the simple math and arrived at the percentage change of DVD sales in one month vs DVD sales in the next month (and ditto for BD), you've removed the unit ($) and made it a pure number that represents the percentage of change in spending for that format. At that point, it is again perfectly fine to look at the two numbers and see who had the higher percentage change. These are honestly really simple concepts, you guys.
The only thing about this Nielsen comparisons that anyone possibly has a valid complaint on is the issue of using top 20. I am ok with them using it because I'm of the opinion that it is a good way to get a pertinent comparison between an incumbent format and its upstart replacement. However, I can understand that certain people don't agree.
These other complaints, however, about using $ vs volume are completely off and spring from a total misunderstanding of statistics/math.
If I'm not clear in my explanation, let me know and I'll try to reword it.
SimbaDogg @ Jul 19th 2008 12:39AM
first strike? what is this...rambo first blood?
FreeRange @ Jul 19th 2008 1:49AM
Oh, and can we all remember that Ben only reports the data that's available and isn't actually in a position to request anything different (units vs. dollars)? He's doing a great job in keeping us from having to go check that source material ourselves. And for that, I salute him!
xemumanic @ Jul 19th 2008 4:50AM
I'm just tired of seeing the usual suspect HD-DVD fanboys posting comments for any article having to do with Blu Ray as soon as it's posted. So this time, I posted one of my own before any of them could, hence a 'first strike'. Noticed how annoying it was? That was the point. Now maybe we can discuss these matters like adults and not put our personal spin on things just because the format we backed lost.
The fact of the matter is that Blu Ray sales went up, despite DVD sales going down, because there was a AAA title that, up until now, was only on DVD (and HD-DVD). Batman Begins was released on DVD nearly THREE years ago, and there was still enough copies on Blu Ray sold to make for an upturn of an otherwise slow release week. Sales on one format does not affect sales of the other. The only thing that ever affects sales are titles worth buying.
DVDs aren't going away any time soon. Nor am I announcing the death of DVD, just yet. Like DVD did to VHS, it'll be a gradual transition, as the prices of both players and discs reach an acceptable cost to the average consumer. It's been said on the EHD podcast before, and I agree, that soon you'll start seeing most titles being released day and date on DVD and Blu Ray, but lesser titles being delayed a week on DVD. Once that starts happening, you'll see a much bigger difference in the sales numbers.
And yes Gus, DVD vs VHS and Blu Ray vs DVD are totally comparable. And as FreeRange and MasterCKO, this is data from Nielsen, Ben is just reporting on them. There is no BDA spin here. Just top 20 sales vs top 20 sales.
And lastly, lets realize that Sony's downloads service is totally reactionary. Had they any presence of mind then, they would have started movie downloads when they released the PSP back in 2005 instead of UMD, which I might add, would have been before the video iPod. Sony would have controlled the movie download market. Now they're just an also-ran, 3 years too late. And if we were to compare game console download services, MS just one-upped them with their Netflix deal.
But its funny to see how suddenly you find downloads are a big deal now that HD-DVD is dead. There's clearly room for both downloads and physical media.
Mike @ Jul 19th 2008 6:25AM
BD isn't taking off till 2.0 is under $120.
squiggleslash @ Jul 19th 2008 8:47AM
Well, this is positive for Blu-ray but I'd wait to see a trend before assuming this is turning the tide.
To those suggesting that the comparison should be units rather than dollars: it doesn't make any difference. Unless BD prices have risen against DVD prices (or DVD prices dropped against BD prices), the "DVDs up/down by"/"BDs up/down by" figures are still the bottom line and what matters.
This is the one time in a month and a half that BD sales have risen against DVD sales. I would wait a while before declaring the viability of BD.
Truth Teller @ Jul 19th 2008 8:53AM
So much for waiting for it all to happen with the great imminent
titles; Batman Begins was supposed to break the dam.......
......and they're still stuck at around $8 million.
Impressive?
No.
Pure fact.
Maybe $8 million (with the occasional, brief & rare spurt up to $12m) a week is 'it' right now, whichever titles they release?
Week after week it's been around $8 million in sales - with that very occasional, very brief & very rare spurt up to $12m.
Even this method of comparison is bogus;
I don't know anyone who buys new DVDs on release, everyone but everyone waits until they drop from their silly initial prices
(although, as these numbers show, there are enough of those rare people to rack up $110+ weekly sales, week in week out, even so).
The coming recession alone has got to be ensuring Blu-ray take-up is very slow.
......not too many people - even those that just bought a new HD TV - are going to lash out $400 on a player which many with a 32" - 50" HD TV will say is only a marginal improvement over upscale and not 'worth' the extra cost involved; particularly when it requires a whole new load of audio kit to make the most of.
As for the comparison with HD TV services?
Best not even to get into that I guess but the endless stories about new HD TV channels and VOD here are testament to how that is growing.
Facts is facts and the fanboys can deny this all they like...... but it makes no difference to the truth. ;)
XDragon @ Jul 19th 2008 9:23AM
TT,
the difference isn't fanboys not facing the facts; I do agree with most of what you said.
The real difference is the optical successor of DVD was bound to face the same challenges as Blu-Ray is facing now and Blu-Ray's performace to date is considered to be as expected.
You keep putting down Blu-Ray while most people say its doing well and the fanboys are saying its doing awesome.
I know you're trying to balance things and shutdown the fanboys, which is fine by me, but you ty so hard that you lose the "most people" demographic which makes them put you in the hater/bitter demographic even if thats not your intention.
The only thing that really pisses me off is when I see former HD-DVD advocates NOW claim that digital downloads are their new thing because Blue-Ray won. That's just immature because things would be no different now even if HD-DVD had won. Sure their players were cheaper, but even that didn't help them to put up a decent fight against Blu-Ray.
See we can talk nicely :)
Truth Teller @ Jul 19th 2008 12:00PM
XDragon I think you're missing something when you mention downloads etc and HD DVD.
It's not about hypocrisy.
The difference as I saw it was that HD DVD (due to the DVD Forum connection) was always capable of simply sliding in without anyone really noticing (thanks to combo & Twin Disc) as 'the next DVD'.
There need not have been any serious distinction made at all (and in fact had the DVD Forum had the foresight to mandate 720p as a video format when they passed DVD9 none of this would ever have arisen).
But as the saying goes, if my Aunt had balls etc etc.....
Blu-ray can never do this because, as things currently stand, hell is going to be below zero before the DVD Forum will allow Blu-ray their own version of the combo or Twin disc (tho both are perfectly possible).
Anyhoo, the reason why holding up downloads or upscalers or upconversion is relevant and not a silly hypocritical thing to do is precisely because of the outside position Blu-ray holds re DVD.
It can never just slide in to be 'the next DVD'.
It is an entirely new & different format with no crossover (excepting an ability for players to upscale & play a DVD - often quite poorly).
That's why the fracturing of the next gen market applies mainly as a hindrance to Blu-ray when it would not have had the same impact to the HD DVD format, in effect HD DVD already was DVD
(once production had seamlessly moved over completely to Twin Discs & combos, which I think undoubtedly would have been the case had HD DVD 'won'......and the next gen of players would have incorporated Super Upconversion too).
None of this really matters tho; I think it's clear (if not publicly acknowledged) that the public's actual appetite for high def on disc enormously disappointed both sides.
HD TV services (coupled with VOD via DVR) are the next big deal (HD on your HD TV all the time, how could it not?)
increasingly followed by fast growing download services next year.
Of course video downloads will follow the music path and begin with laughably restrictive DRM etc etc,
but as we saw with the music services they will quickly grow out of their 'security fetish'......that is if they are serious about tapping this new market.
Naturally the fanboys for the game console format will not want to hear this but then even Sony have given them their own downlaoding service now and they'll have to stop running that down sometime.
Similarly the Bravia service shows they know they are unlikely to attract enough to the game console format and are looking further afield amongst the more mainstream consumer.
The 'quality at any cost' tribe will also hate the idea of 720p/1080i downloads with 'vanilla' Dolby Digital (or may DTS & DD plus @ 1.5mbps at a push) but then they have a major problem which they cannot get past.
They simply are not the mass-market.
Sadlt for them the mass-market couldn't care less about such things, anymore than they want to put a shedload of cash into the sort of HD TV & audio kit necessary to see & hear 1080p & the new audio standards and make proper & full use of them.
Same as happened with SACD & DVD-Audio.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not against such things, I really enjoy my SACD & DVD-Audio collection.
I have just always been anti-Blu-ray because it was obvious from the start that no matter how much the industry wanted to force DVD's early death so as to get the next high margin cash-cow going it was never going to work.
....and as you may know I have huge reservations about the whole denial of true ownership and consumer control inherent in their little DRM/security BS - which does nothing but hurt the paying customer
(it sure as hell does nothing to combat the real pirates who copy & sell fake good by the container load).
See, 'course we can always talk nice, XDragon. Anytime ; ¬D
Truth Teller @ Jul 19th 2008 8:57AM
Yeah cos this site would be so much better if it was all just 'pro' propaganda with all and any dissenting voices and critical thought was silenced & banned.
LMAO
Go to Blu-ray.com if that's really what you want.
Truth Teller @ Jul 19th 2008 12:04PM
Damned comments system screw-up.
This one was a reply to xemumanic
XDragon @ Jul 19th 2008 9:05AM
Oh common people!
This is not a surprise because of Batman Begins!
Every time these's a big NEW RELEASE or NEW BACK CATALOG RELEASE, we see a great week for Blu-Ray.
This is what we should be expecting and this is good news.
As for you people debating comparisions of VHS vs DVD and DVD vs Blu-Ray:
They are only somewhat comparable:
DVD added much more to the movie experience compared to VHS, Blu-Ray is simply upgrading DVD in quality for the most part. The other difference is Blu-Ray is not valuable unless you have an HD TV and DVD did not have any such requirements. Also gas prices coupled with a looming recession is making people be a bit more careful with their money.
Those are the reasons you can't make a stright comparision but in the scense of 1 format replacing the other, you can make a comparison, but you can't expect the same trend because of the above 3 statements.
DrXym @ Jul 19th 2008 11:30AM
Exactly. When decent titles get released, sales go up. No surprise there. It should be no surprise either that studios have a pile of decent titles lined up for late August onwards so sales are generally going to go up, probably by a very substantial amount.
Xyzzy @ Jul 19th 2008 10:38AM
Umm, does everyone realize that BD revenue is still down from where it was just two weeks ago? And that it's down 33% from where it was just four weeks ago?
Mr. E @ Jul 19th 2008 10:51AM
Obsessing over week to week sales numbers is like getting on the scale every hour when you're trying to lose weight. You get elated or depressed for no good reason.
DrXym @ Jul 21st 2008 12:26PM
Sales are highly dependent on lots of factors - time of year, quality of titles, number of titles, price of titles, advertising etc. It's obvious and expected that some weeks are going have massive slumps and other weeks will have massive boosts. Its also obvious that sales for one week might be less than for another especially if one of those weeks is atypical in some way. For example, Father's day is a traditionally strong for sales because dad's like their gadgets and studios save up their best flicks for those few weeks before it. At the moment we're in a lull but things start to get really strong again in late August. It really depends on what is going on. There is no need to defend it going up and down, other than to point all this out. It certainly won't stop the usual parade of nitwits bawling about blu ray whichever way it goes.
SimbaDogg @ Jul 19th 2008 3:03PM
sorry guys, just saving my password
SimbaDogg @ Jul 19th 2008 3:11PM
sorry guys, just saving my password
Fred @ Jul 19th 2008 3:32PM
I stated 2 weeks ago that it would go up because of the Dark Knight, and again last week. But I am still wrong; I believed the numbers would be a lot higher. The top 3 were all Batman, but the third product was a much more expensive product than your traditional Blu-Ray title, I know because I bought one.
The more I think, the more I feel that this could be Blu-Ray's high for a long time. Because coming out the next couple of weeks there is nothing worth buying for the average consumer in Blu. I mean seriously the next most anticipated Blu-Ray release is not till September 30th and that’s Ironman.
But this does not mean its doomsday either. Most of us will buy titles here and their till Ironman, like Ben's Jack Ryan series, or Kill Bill 1 & 2, 21, The Nightmare Before Christmas, and a definite for me is L.A. Confidential. I think sales will be steady, not great, not bad, just steady. One question... where in the world is HEAT.