Blu-ray players to outsell DVD decks by August? Not likely.

by Darren Murph, posted May 28th 2008 at 4:15PM

Considering that this report doesn't really jive with everything else we've already heard this year, we'd certainly take all of this with a grain of salt. Sure, Blu-ray has had its fair share of supply issues, but there's no denying that average price points are still well above the level at which casual consumers would be willing to bite at. Nevertheless, some industry analysts are expecting standalone Blu-ray players to outsell DVD decks "on a unit basis" by August of this year, and they also expect free-flowing supply around the same time. Yeah, we know DVD sales are slowing and it's only a matter of time before BD starts gaining some serious ground -- but August?

[Thanks, xdragon]

Filed under: Industry, Blu-ray, Other formats, Players

Tags: adoption, blu-ray, data, dvd, research, sales, study, survey

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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)

Neutral

JDS @ May 28th 2008 4:21PM

quick nfinity say something negative

Neutral

DrXym @ May 28th 2008 4:44PM

Every year sees a sharp spike in electronics sales in June, September and November / December with sales increasing substantially in the last half of the year.

Its quite obvious that Blu Ray sales are going to jump from this point on and I can well believe they will exceed DVD sales in electronics specialist stores as the link says. Specialist being the operative word. People buying an home cinema system obviously want the best playback and Blu Ray delivers it.

It will take quite a bit longer to outpace DVD in general. How long can be seen by looking at how long it took for DVD to outstrip sales of VHS, IIRC it was something like 2004 before DVD overtook VHS in sales.

Neutral

Patrick @ May 28th 2008 4:52PM

You don't have to be Nfinity to know that this is completely ludicrous. I own a PS3 (as well as an HD DVD player), but anyone who thinks that Blu-ray will catch up to DVD anytime soon is a complete and utter moron. Franky I'm surprised this is even a story, even given EngadgetHD's bias.

Neutral

JoN @ May 28th 2008 4:30PM

this very well could be true - dvd saturation is extremely high, people have or are getting hdtv, and despite all these reports the last few months about how few stand alone units BR is selling - my store is consistently sold out of all brands... and im in a big store... so... if the inventory is going to be free-flowing, then the sales will be too.

Highly Ranked

clads01 @ May 28th 2008 5:28PM

I agree re: saturation. The small percentage of consumers buying BD players may exceed the number of consumers buying DVD players. Not because BD players are or will be more popular than DVD players, but just because everybody already has a DVD player.

Neutral

Gus @ May 28th 2008 8:17PM

The thing everyone keeps forgetting is any optical HD format is directly linked to large screen HD TV sales/volume.
BR CAN NOT beat DVD until such time as the market penetration of large screen HD TVs is at least 50% of the total market and everyone of those 50% have a BR player.
The "people" who keep linking BR sales to DVD sales are in Lala land, DVD wasn't handicapped by a specific type of TV it improved AV qualities on, every TV on the planet can play, and does play DVD and offers advantages in AV quality at a very cheap price,-how many tens of millions of homes must this represent, against the so far minuscule HD TV adoption world wide.
Do people really think BR sales are gong to out pace HD TV sales or something??..... and please, don't tell me people are going to shell out $400 for a BR player when their DVD player dies to watch upscaled DVDs on their 24" CRTs, get real, why would they there is no benefit, hell, even laser disc plugged straight into whatever you had at the time and gave you advantages.

When HD TV adoption represents a major share of the market, and when BR is priced similarly to DVD players, J6 will replace his dead DVD player with a BR player when he has a HD TV, and not before, only then can large scale adoption can happen. IMO opinion, by then it's to late, BR can never beat DVD.

Neutral

Mitchell @ May 28th 2008 4:30PM

this is the craziest story i have read in a while. Supply limited? I could go to BB right now and see ~15 boxes of BD players!

If this is truly going to happen I cant wait because if it does that means the current price of BD players will be half of what they are today + fully featured audio profiles I may actually buy one. (~$200)

Given the absolute insane statement above most likely wont come true we will be in the same situation in 3 months but maybe by X-mas 08 this could happen but highly unlikely IMHO.

Highly Ranked

Jaxim @ May 28th 2008 4:31PM

They might be including PS3's into this August forecast and if that is the case then they ought to include computer DVD drives.

Statistics can be made to prove your point depending on how selectively you choose your inputs.

Neutral

Bob @ May 29th 2008 12:52PM

Lies, damned lies, and Blu-Ray statistics.

Highest Ranked

Achilles @ May 28th 2008 4:36PM

This might one day be true (couple of years) but by August? Give me break. Are these the same analysts that said that the US is not in a recession and that the future for gas prices along with the housing market looks excellent? Morons!

Maybe they mean that from June --> August that Blu-Ray players will outsell standard DVD players in regards to units.

June-->August: DVD players purchased = 1000
June-->August: BR payers purchased =1001

Something like that??

Neutral

Nfinity @ May 28th 2008 4:39PM

No.. it's not that even.. the Ultimate Electronics guy is saying that Ultimate Electronics might have more revenue on sold BD players compared to DVD players. Which is totally possible for one company since they need to sell 1 Blu-Ray player and 10 DVD players to make the revenue equal.

He specifically says that unit sales are done and has made on impllications that they will be selling more Blu-ray players then DVD players.

It's completely incorrect title based on speculation from 1 retailer.

Highly Ranked

wysiwyg @ May 28th 2008 4:40PM

Wait...I thought most profile 2.0 players won't be available till AFTER August...so why are people in a rush to even buy a $350-$500 profile 1.1 player when dvd players cost $35?

Low Ranked

Nfinity @ May 28th 2008 4:42PM

They are not.. it's revenue.. 1 person buys Blu-Ray player for $400 and 10 people buys a DVD player at $35 and that's how they calculate. They made more money on Blu-Ray player.

What's new?! haha we know they are ripping consumers off much more..

Low Ranked

Nfinity @ May 28th 2008 4:40PM

Daren.. would you mind READING the article and fixing your title because it's totally not what the article says.

Highest Ranked

rising eagle @ May 29th 2008 1:08AM

the title wasnt misleading...

it said... "Blu-ray playerss to outsell DVD decks by August? Not likely"

you probably missed the part where it had the question mark and the other part where it had the NOT LIKELY. So there is no propaganda going on. Grow up.

Neutral

looseinthedeuce @ May 28th 2008 4:43PM

Is Nfinity's problem really with this post or with Blu-ray in general? If Blu-ray players will bring in more REVENUE to a retailer, can you blame them? That's more cash in their pockets. Don't hate the player, hate the game.

Low Ranked

Nfinity @ May 28th 2008 4:45PM

My problem retard is that the article and the title of this news is A LIE.. it doesn't say that at all.. typical Sony propaganda. They pay this Sussane from Video Business to write crap like this with completely false titles.

Highest Ranked

looseinthedeuce @ May 28th 2008 4:52PM

Ah. Well, I think you should stop reading engadget posts because you seem quite upset. And if you're calling me a retard, you missed a couple of commas to make that clear. Grammar is your friend even if Sony is not.

Highest Ranked

Achilles @ May 28th 2008 4:52PM

I don't know about the "typical Sony propaganda" but the title of this article is incorrect.

The full article states that it's talking about one specific retail company (Ultimate Electronics) and their sales of Blu-Ray vs. standard DVD.

Neutral

Nfinity @ May 28th 2008 4:43PM

Nah..I don't buy them anymore.. I rent what I can from Blockbuster, rip with legal software I bought and stream.. I am not giving them $40 for Mr. Doubtfire for sure.. I'll let people like you to feed them with dollars.

Highly Ranked

Dave @ May 28th 2008 4:48PM

I think Nfinity needs to learn to read:

"“People have been waiting weeks for Sony players, but it should get better later in the summer,” said Rick Souder, executive VP of merchandise at Crutchfield. “In August, it will be the first time that Blu-ray overtakes [standard DVD] sales for us on a unit basis.”

For some time, revenue on relatively higher-priced BD set-tops has trumped standard DVD at Crutchfield. Currently, the dollar split is 60% Blu-ray and 40% standard."

BD has been higher on a revenue basis for some time - see quoted dollar split - for the reason you indicate. The reference to outselling is very explicitly on a unit basis. All from Crutchfield, a retailer with enough volume for these quotes to be potentially meaningful.

To included computer DVD drives you'd want to include computer bd drives. The correct offset for PS3's would be DVD-based game consoles (ie. 360, PS2, etc.).

The saturation point comment is the most spot on, BD passing DVD on player unit per month basis is nice, but not that interesting, no one needs another DVD player anymore (we all probably have 3+ in our households). The question is installed base of DVD vs BD, vs interest in downloadable content.

Low Ranked

Nfinity @ May 28th 2008 4:51PM

I read just fine.. and Crutchfield is totally irrelevant and much smaller then Ultimate Electronics. It has no influence. To say that Crutchfield has any indication of what the situation on the market is is COMPLETELY ridiculous.

This whole article REEKS of lies and misleading information in order to try to make it sound as if Blu-Ray is desirable when in fact it's completely false.

Nobody buys Blu-Ray.. maybe at smaller shops Blu-Ray outsells DVDs because those smaller shops usually sell niche equipment anyways.

Why don't they put numbers?

This whole article is shit..and just a way to mislead as a part of ongoing BDA tactic. I know too much about it to be calm.. Fucking corrupted reporters.

Highest Ranked

andyg8180 @ May 28th 2008 4:49PM

i like turtles....

thats my response to anal-ysts... I think we've all heard enough of analyst BS...
1. ps3 will beat 360
2. blu ray will beat dvd
3. girls are better than boys...

ITS ALL LIES!!!

Highly Ranked

Will @ May 28th 2008 6:18PM

well the ps3 is beating the 360 in every market except N America...in which it's nearly dead even every month now. it's only a matter of time before ps3 passes them globally unless MS marks the premium 360 down to $250 in the near future

Highest Ranked

DeadPlasmaCell @ May 28th 2008 4:50PM

Seems like the headline should say:

"Blu-ray players to outsell DVD decks by August...at Ultimate Electronics, Crutchfield and Bjorn’s"

Seems like those are specialty stores that probably don't get as much product like Best Buy, Circuit City, etc. I could be wrong though.

Neutral

Nfinity @ May 28th 2008 4:52PM

EXACTLY!

And the sales will not outpace DVD.. Only Crutchfield SPECULATES that.. Ultimate Electronics is very clear that it's revenue.

Neutral

Achilles @ May 28th 2008 4:56PM

Nfinity,

It's going to be ok. You are correct in saying that the title of this article is incorrect.

Relax, it's all good!

Neutral

Nfinity @ May 28th 2008 5:19PM

phew.. ha ha.. thanks.. I do get huffed too much sometimes.. but I just can't stand this type of propaganda and spread of incorrect information..

Engadget is actually not to blame.. it's a mistake that others could've made because the ORIGINAL article makes it sound like that in title.

Highest Ranked

Mote @ May 28th 2008 8:04PM

@Nfinity

You have absolutely no idea who I am or what I know, so try saving your baseless attacks for someone you might actually know something about.

I, on the other hand, have had to read through your mindless and PERSISTENT dribble on anything Blu-ray related in order to find any substance within these comment sections, and judging by the amount of people who I see handing you your ass on a daily basis, I'd say I'm part of the large majority who thinks you're a waste of a username and password.

Lowest Ranked

Nfinity @ May 28th 2008 8:56PM

You don't have a clue retard.. I don't have to know anything about you to realize that you are completely clueless.

Everything I say is true and when people can't accept the facts they start bitching and moaning like little pussies.

Face it blow-hards, Blow Ray is done by 2009 and there's NOTHING you can do but cry to your mommy!

Neutral

Nfinity @ May 28th 2008 4:55PM

Yeah..so all those people buying at Best Buy, the biggest HD retailer are all dumbasses?

Get a grip loser.

I don't pay the prices, but not all people buy from Amazon retard.

Neutral

kcmurphy88 @ May 28th 2008 4:56PM

Well, exactly how many more DVD players is anyone going to buy? I have two I'm not using as it is. There's 1000s today on ebay.

It is quite possible that SALES of Blu will outstrip SALES of DVD players soon enough. INSTALLED BASE, on the other hand, is a whole different thing. Blu's got a few hundred million to go to catch up there.

Neutral

DrXym @ May 28th 2008 5:10PM

I think its more the case that if you are going to a specialist store for AV equipment that you want an HD player to go with the HD TV and surround system. Why bother buying a DVD player when it doesn't even show HD content? The specialist stores are obviously going to be the first where Blu Ray takes over from DVD. Other kinds of stores may take a lot longer.

Highest Ranked

kcmurphy88 @ May 28th 2008 5:18PM

I guess what I'm saying is that DVD players took over the sales lead long before DVD disc rentals took over from videotape rentals. You may be selling more, but the installed base is still almost all the old thing. So when BD sales top DVD sales, it may still be years before BD disc sales catch up.

Neutral

joe @ May 28th 2008 5:31PM

This may actually come true and still not be a good thing for BD.

The reason that so many CE manufacturers supported a new HD format is that all of the profit was squeezed out of the DVD player market.

For a long while there was a high volume of DVD player sales where a small profit margin was made up for in volume.

DVD is now a fully saturated technology. There is no reason to go out and buy a better dvd player, you only need to replace a broken one. So it in reality it is fully possible for BD in this year, in the us, to out sell DVD on a for unit basis, only because DVD unit sales are poor.

In terms of profit for the manufacturers you will see most makers starting to ramp down dvd player lines to reduce inventory and push up price all while shifting to higher margin BD sales.

So this can happen AND BD can still be doing poorly.

Neutral

h0mi @ May 28th 2008 5:43PM

Ok folks. This article was beaten to death in the HDD smackdown forum.

I had flashbacks to last year when HD-DVD evangelicals were touting good news about the format selling "strongly" only for us to find out 5 months later, that blu-ray outsold HD-DVD from June through September in 2007, and December saw this same thing happen.

The article starts off with "High-end consumer electronics retailers".

That's all you need to know. This is not about all retail sales, not about best buy or walmart or circuit city having more Blu-ray players out the door than DVD players.

In July 2007, 2 million DVD players were sold. Even assuming a massive drop off in player sales, to a mere 700k players sold in August 2008, this would be equal to the number of PS3s sold in December 2007. During Christmas.

The headline of the article was misleading and gave people incorrect impressions of what is going on in the marketplace or what to expect in the marketplace. But then, we've seen a lot of that with this format war, and with the rash of news over the past 3 months about poor blu-ray (_player_) sales.

Neutral

Darkstar @ May 28th 2008 5:52PM

Erm - of course bd decks will overtake soon...

How many people out there still need a dvd player? Most people already have 5 of the things and they're virtual free second hand.

Neutral

Bill @ May 28th 2008 6:10PM

I seriously doubt this is true. I'm known as the tech guy among my circle of family and friends, and I've helped several people pick out HDTVs recently. They all chose to go with a $60 upscaling DVD player instead of a $400 Blu Ray player to go with their new TV, and they are extremely happy with how upscaled DVDs look now. I don't think any of them will pull the trigger on Blu any time soon. I have a feeling this is true of many people.

Neutral

kcmurphy88 @ May 28th 2008 7:55PM

One of the biggest mistakes people make is to get a small HDTV because they had a small regular TV. The whole idea of HDTV is to simulate the movie theater experience with a film-like picture. In my experience, everyone who says they cannot tell the difference between blu-ray (or HD broadcast) and DVD has made this mistake.

Watching a 42" HDTV from 15 feet away, sure you won't see much detail. But that's much the same thing as taking a 13" portable TV set at the same distance and saying that DVD isn't any better than VHS.

Neutral

Will @ May 28th 2008 6:13PM

yeah, now you want to say that everybody buys from best buy...but back when you were all about hd-dvd it was all about how everybody buys their movies on amazon. so which is it?

Neutral

Greg @ May 28th 2008 6:13PM

Numbers don't "jive," they "jibe." The only jive is this massacre-of-the-English-language lead sentence. Here endeth the lesson.

Neutral

John W @ May 28th 2008 6:35PM

Why not forget about physical media and just switch over to downloadable content or streaming content? I hook my computer up to my plasma all the time and stream shows and movies. Also, studio websites like NBC, ABC, and Hulio are starting to stream their content in HD. I'm sure there are many other websites that also do this and more will come in the future. You could even buy Apple TV for half the cost of most Blue Ray players and have it all streamed to your TV wirelessly. Apple has expanded their media library quite a lot lately and now release movies the same date as places like block buster. The industry is moving towards digital rather than physical content anyway, so why lock yourself into a format that is not as easily adaptable? Thats my 2 cents.

Highest Ranked

Bill @ May 28th 2008 6:38PM

Because no form of streaming available today matches the bitrate of Blu Ray. In many cases not only is the compression greater, the resolution has been reduced too. It's particularly noticable on larger TV's.

Low Ranked

Nfinity @ May 28th 2008 7:44PM

and it doesn't have to match Blu-Ray because that crap is overhyped anywhere for elitist and fanboys to slam their chest. That's why they included the freakin' bit-rate meter on PS3. Ridiculous.

The quality of the image on smaller bit rates of HD DVD was on par or even exceeding quality of Blu-Ray ones.. so it's utter nonsense.

Vudu streams / buffers 1080p content with DD+ 5.1 sound and looks and sounds incredible. That's enough for 99.9 percent of people.

Low Ranked

Nfinity @ May 28th 2008 7:47PM

@John..it's coming buddy..it's coming.. new services are already popping up everywhere and online services are getting improved every month.

It's only a matter of all studios signing up which for the most part they are. XBL has almost every one except Sony.

Apple TV HD has all studios including Sony.

Vudu has good selection of movies for both purchase and renting in SD and HD but could be better and I'm pretty it will be better.

We won't have to wait long. By early 2009 it will common thing in the marketplace and more and more people will have even less reason to buy overpriced garbage named Blow Ray.

Neutral

looseinthedeuce @ May 29th 2008 11:30AM

@Nfinity

Yes, and the music industry will stop selling CDs. Oh wait, no they won't. They may make 90% profit when streaming movies at $5 a piece, but when people buy physical media at 4 times the price and they only make 20%, they still make out.

You need an economics lesson on marginal profit. Us "elitist fanboys" DO enjoy higher bitrate movies on our big TVs and are willing to pay a higher price. I own an HD DVD player and agree that the lower-than-Blu-ray bitrates are quite good. But even HD DVD offers 2-4 times higher bitrates than anything available for streaming media.

The worst Blu-ray does in the movie business will be better than Laserdisc ever managed. And don't forget how widely used Blu-ray is in the industrial market. Yes, Blu-ray will be obsolete one day; but that's not exactly a novel thought.

Low Ranked

EEL @ May 28th 2008 7:17PM

LMAO!

Call me when ALL catalog titles re-released on Blu-ray are ALL reasonably priced, like $15 or less (preferrably $10 or less).

Then we can talk about SA Blu players outselling SD DVD players.

Neutral

Mr. E @ May 30th 2008 12:26AM

I suppose you're under the delusion that all catalog titles newly re-released as special editions on DVD are $10 or under? Yeah, right.

Neutral

EEL @ May 30th 2008 6:13PM

@ Mr. E,

Most of them are, dingaling!

I'm sure you've seen the 2 for $30, 3 for $30, and/or $2 for $15 deals on DVD's at B&M's like Best Buy, Circuit City, Target, and Fry's? To be honest, that should be MSRP instead of sale priced. I just don't believe that any customer should pay more than $15-$20 MSRP for a Blu version of a film that has been released previously on DVD.

If you've got the money to burn, knock yourself out!

Highest Ranked

mntwister @ May 28th 2008 7:25PM

Nfinity, do you have any spare time from your full time job of blu-ray/Sony bashing? Man, get a life.

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