Nielsen VideoScan High-Def market share for week ending May 11th, 2008
DVD gains lost ground this week, but Blu-ray continues downward thanks to another weak list of releases on this week's Nielsen VideoScan chart courtesy of Home Media Magazine; but the 7.3 percent reduction isn't enough to make Blu-ray lose its 5% of the top 20 market. Speaking of the top 20, there are 9 DVDs on the top 20 that didn't make their way to Blu, and HMM added a new chart to help us compare individual title sales. The new chart shows Blu-ray's share per title and the top one on the list is a Blu-ray exclusive (Over America), and interestingly the rest of the list is filled with catalogue titles, with the highest new release, I Am Legend, at 16.8 percent. This chart will become more interesting in a few weeks when Blu-ray finally gets a hot new release after almost a month of drought. Speaking of looking forward, next week is much of the same, as it was an unofficial catalogue week for Blu. So no doubt things are going to get worse before they get better. Either way, we can't wait to see how the new chart breaks down Blu-ray's share on a hot new release like National Treasure.
Filed under: Blu-ray
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
xemumanic @ May 16th 2008 10:23PM
Here come the HD-DVD dynamic duo in 3, 2, 1............
All jokes aside, not only do need the prices need to come down on players a bit, but there needs to be actual worthy releases. Even if the player prices were better, would could expect sales with a crappy release lineup as we've seen as of late?
We'll see what happens in June when things pick up.
Nfinity @ May 16th 2008 10:31PM
ha ha... if anyone thinks that 4 movies will save the format this year then i think you'll be in for a surprise. A drop of 10% every week means that in a few more months we'll see like 1% Blu-Ray..and then eventually demise in 2009.
jsn @ May 16th 2008 10:40PM
Blu-ray is a lame duck. Killing off HD-DVD was supposed to make things better, but we have more expensive players, still feature crippled players and less public interest than ever.
SimbaDogg @ May 16th 2008 11:51PM
@Nfinity
what else can i say to you that hasn't already been said by everyone over the last few months
@ jsn
so i'm guessing you were expecting blu ray to go from zero-lightspeed in terms of adoption rate in 2 months?
Spiza @ May 17th 2008 12:39AM
You have to remember that when blockbuster titles release on Blu-Ray also come out on DVD, those DVD numbers will go up big time to. I see some good weeks when a new planet earth like set releases or when some big catalog titles like The Matrix, Batman Begins, or Transformers finally come out on Blu-Ray.
Players are really what will get the numbers up, and you won't see a big spike in player sales till the holidays.
Prices on movies are already going down though, so I could care less. As long as I'm getting my HD goodness, who cares.
Mr. E @ May 17th 2008 1:31AM
Nfinity, are you going to be consistent? I mean, when Blu-ray sales have a gigantic gain two and three weeks from now with all the new titles coming from every studio including the former Red team, I really hope to see your corresponding projection:
"A gain of 10% every week means that in a few more months we'll see like 30% Blu-Ray..and then eventually complete adoption in 2009"
DrXym @ May 17th 2008 3:09AM
Low sales are obviously because disks suck at the moment. They won't suck starting starting the last week of May or the whole of June so we'll see what difference that will make.
Russ Tundra @ May 17th 2008 10:32AM
you know it's a bad Week for Blu-Ray when a Semi-Good movie from Ten Years ago comes out and beats out everyone else.... Twister... who wants to see a cow fly???? thats the only part of that movie I remember... that's sad..
Jake @ May 16th 2008 11:14PM
I scored Dogma and Gattaca on Blu-Ray at Frys in Indianapolis for $11.95 each today! I don't know how long the sale is going to last, but it appeared that significant number of Sony Pictures titles are included in the sale. Now THAT is the kind of pricing that will spur widespread BD adoption!
EQC @ May 16th 2008 11:40PM
Odd...I read right here in the EngadgetHD comments, on several occasions, that Blu-ray movies cost $40.
Jake @ May 16th 2008 11:48PM
At Frys, the retail price of the two movies I grabbed was $22.95 for Dogma and $19.95 for Gattaca. They were both $11.95 on sale. I thought I got a good deal. One sure way to pay too much for a Blu Ray is to shop at Best Buy. I shop at Frys and Amazon, and typically get a good deal.
Mr. E @ May 17th 2008 1:36AM
I saw that sale today too. I think it's part of Fry's "anniversary sale". A friend of mine got Run Lola Run for $11.95, and a WD 1 TB HDD for $189. Not too shabby at all. Gotta love those loss leaders!
Jake @ May 16th 2008 11:22PM
I also noted that fire sale pricing is really in full swing at Frys on remaining HD-DVD inventory. I think they work with those fancy $99.00 "upconverting DVD players" that Toshiba sells?!?
Gus @ May 16th 2008 11:27PM
It will be very interesting to watch the usual blu zealots spin this one, perhaps when the Funai players kick in at Wally World there will be a massive turn around :)
Mr. E @ May 17th 2008 1:22AM
Perhaps you missed the important tidbit that 16.8% of all copies of I Am Legend sold this week were Blu-ray. With great sales numbers like that, obviously nothing needs spinning. No reasonable person expects a "massive turn around". Instead, Blu-ray adoption will steadily increase as prices drop. Same as any other format introduction in history.
I hope the new releases post on Monday will highlight what I think is the most interesting one of all: Short Circuit. Not because it's the greatest movie out there, but because it's a well known, fairly popular catalog title, and it's debuting on Blu-ray with a $19.98 MSRP, and can be preordered at Amazon for a mere $10.95. So much for the theory that Blu-ray is going to be some elitist high-price format forever.
EQC @ May 17th 2008 1:54AM
Mr. E: Very interesting about Short Circuit...a favorite movie from my childhood. Nice price for HD too!
DrXym @ May 17th 2008 3:35AM
No spin is required dumbass. The movie releases at the moment suck and that's all there is to it. Studios appear to be saving up the decent releases until June for Father's day.
And yes the Funai player as part of the dozen or so other players landing in the next few months will spur sales. I realize its a complete mystery to you why this part of the year might be slow but it isn't a mystery for anyone who has half a clue about how the CE industry works.
DrXym @ May 17th 2008 4:01AM
Mr E, I'd add that Amazon.com is selling I Am Legend for $19 on Blu Ray, vs $16 for the standard DVD and $23 for the special edition DVD. Not bad at all and certainly not the $40 MSRP that certain crybabies drag out whenever price comes up.
The funny part is that the Amazon Unbox SD version of I Am Legend sells for $15 - $1 less than the DVD for a featureless, lower quality, non-transferrable, device locked movie.
EQC @ May 16th 2008 11:43PM
Not really related...but check page 9 of the read link.
Apparently, Warner's got a contract when their movies go to DVD rental shops. The contract states that instead of selling the pre-viewed copies for cheap, the rental places are required to destroy 80% of their copies for blockbuster films.
Either that means that there'll be fewer (or more expensive) pre-viewed DVD's available...or the employees will "destroy" more of the DVD's into their on collections or onto ebay. Hmmm...
kcmurphy88 @ May 17th 2008 12:37AM
Too bad Cloverfield didn't come out on HD DVD this week. We'd have had another BOGO on blu-ray for sure.
Mike @ May 17th 2008 1:43AM
So true. I wonder if any way Toshiba could has a suprise relaunch of HD DVD. If they Came out at $120 they would pummel bd.
DrXym @ May 17th 2008 4:03AM
"If they Came out at $120 they would pummel bd.". You mean like the last time when Toshiba lost money hand over fist subsidizing them and still couldn't outsell Blu Ray?
mntwister @ May 17th 2008 1:39AM
It's always a riot to read the comments here after the sales figures are posted. The anti-blu brigade is always there to chip out the low numbers. With the economy the way it is, I expect no increase in blu-ray until later in the year. Samsung's new 2.0 ready player has hit Walmart now for $349. The Funai player is hitting. More movies are being released, now from all studios, which means that the numbers on these charts will increase as more of the top 20, which is used to gauge the percentage, increases.
Still, there will be those doomsayers who are still mouring the death of their beloved hd-dvd. Sorry guys-the only thing available to you is therapy, and it would be a much better idea to get that than to sit behind a screen, face unknown, and constantly downgrade a new format that you really hope dies a terrible death. It ain't-a-happenin' guys. By the end of the year, there will be a turnaround for blu-ray, just as there was the end of the 2nd year for dvd. For dvd, by the same amount of time after it's introduction as blu-ray has now, things were generally the same. Finalized players at lower prices are here. Also, we did not have to pay 3.75 to 4.25 a gallon for gas or 3.50 for a pound of grapes or over 4.00 for a pound of hamburger then either. we are in a terrible economic situation and no one can afford luxuries, so of course people are sticking to dvd. But the anti-blu zealots don't have the intelligence to realize the economy is put into play here.
I have no doubt that once we have an economic turnaround and a holiday season, anyone who has spent or is going to spend thousands of dollars on a high definition television is going to want high definition discs to play on them, upscaling is not a long term solution for the masses, because once they see a good blu-ray disc in 1080p, they will realize how crappy their hd cable signals really are and how pathetic their upscaling dvd players are and will want their favorite films in high definition. Mark my words, I have been in this industry for over 25 years and have seen everything that is video....and blu-ray is on the verge of sprouting and it's going to be big. The one thing that needs to happen is the cost of the movies needs to come down. Fox cannot believe that charging 39.95 for a 1966 film like Batman or 39.95 for Butch Cassidy is going to get blu-ray into the mainstream, to me it is up to the studios. If the prices were within 5.00, even 10.00, the average consumer with an expensive high def tv would surely prefer the blu-ray version.
Mr. E @ May 17th 2008 10:31AM
Nicely said. I agree 100% about Fox. One thing that's gratifying, however, is if you look at *new* releases (which is where the major sales are going to come), all the studios seem to be pricing their BDs at either the same price as the special edition DVD, or $5 higher.
As far as I'm concerned, comparing the price of a newly released catalog title on BD to a DVD that's been out for years is just silly. Of course the stores and studios are going to try and maximize profit on that new release by pricing it high compared to the DVD. They want to suck in the true fans at the highest price they can. Once that initial period is over, however, they begin to drop the price on that title, just like what happened with DVD. I still think Blu-ray prices seem high in general just because most titles are relatively new on the marketplace. But if you look at the Blu-ray titles that have been out for awhile, you can already see that they're lower priced than the catalog titles coming out right now.
I mean, for heaven's sake, at the 2 BDs for $30 sale running right now at Amazon, you can get the Blade Runner Five Disc Complete Collector's Edition for $15, along with 39 other movies.
squiggleslash @ May 19th 2008 8:44AM
I doubt the economy is going to turn around before the end of the year. I know a change of President will do the country some good, but most estimates put, for example, the decline of house prices as something that'll go well into the next decade. So if the economic squeeze is a major factor hitting Blu-ray, then BD isn't going to suddenly achieve popularity by Christmas.
There's a race here and it's not something many Blu-ray partisans seem to be willing to accept: HD DVD may be gone, but it was never the only competitor to Blu-ray. Indeed, part of the reason it failed was that one of its biggest supporters, Microsoft, was double dipping and saw online downloads (one of the other competing HD delivery systems) as a viable alternative, and so didn't invest in HD DVD in the same way as, say, Sony did Blu-ray. We're seeing HD downloads becoming more and more viable (the only issue right now is the lack of a standardized platform and a way to make it possible for people to buy, rather than rent, copies in an acceptable manner); while with SD systems like PPV and premium movie channels were second rate at best, the combination of HD and DVRs also makes them a very acceptable alternative even given the slightly poorer quality compared to native Blu-ray/HD DVD.
Essentially, everyone and their dog is going to be pushing alternative means to watch movies in HD over the coming two or three years, and realistically, all Blu-ray has going for it is that its already solved the "I want to buy a permanent copy" issue. But it's an expensive way to do that. Couple this with the fact that most people I know have difficulty telling HD from regular DVD quality, and Blu-ray is something that doesn't have a good value proposition. It has to take over from DVD to survive, not in the sense that people look at a $20 DVD player and a $199 Blu-ray player and say "Blu-ray's higher quality, I'll spend 10x as much and get that", but people need to walk into Wal*Mart, and not see any DVD players, all the players being Blu-ray, with every price point from $100 onwards supported.
And, for reasons I've explained elsewhere, notably the boneheaded decision to put BD+ in the spec, I don't see it as realistic that a multitude of low cost Blu-ray players will ever exist, not without actually damaging the format in the process (BD+ = random chance of disc not working on your player.)
So in the near future, no low cost players and no economic upturn. In the medium to long term, alternatives to Blu-ray will become increasingly viable, to the point the whole idea of buying movies on discs is considered unusual and inconvenient. The Blu-ray forum needs to act now and make the changes that are necessary to ensure Blu-ray doesn't follow HD DVD into the dustbin of history.
daaper @ May 19th 2008 10:16AM
HD downloads are fine for some, but I don't think I'll ever be on that bandwagon (and I have a feeling I'm not alone). I like having a physical collection of movies. If I'm going to give that up, then it's only because I can save a LOT of money or because physical copies just aren't made anymore (a sad day, indeed). I'm not buying a download of a movie at this point because: a.) they're not cheaper than physical discs; b.) I don't have anywhere near enough HDD space to store my existing collection, let alone a larger one (not to mention I just flat-out don't trust HDDs with my collection). There is very little convenience-factor in HD dl for me and I enjoy going to the store to pick out titles on the clearance/sale racks...
EQC @ May 17th 2008 1:48AM
Engadget: It'd be nice of you to put that "new chart" on the page here where we can easily see it. I think it's got more useful information in it than the "usual" chart you posted instead.
Anyway, to re-type it for those who might be interested...If I understand correctly, these numbers represent Blu-Ray's market share in terms of number of titles sold versus the same title on DVD:
1) Over America: 100% (a BR exclusive title...whatever it is...so of course 100% of sales are BR)
2) Twister: 76.93%
3) Independence Day: 55.85%
4) Blade Runner Complete Collectors Ed.: 37.18%
5) Planet Earth, complete series: 30.35%
6) POTC, At World's End: 27.04%
7) 300: 25.53%
8) Casino Royale: 23.46%
9) Cars: 18.7%
10) Ratatouille: 17.08%
11) I am Legend: 16.86%
12) Hitman: 16.48%
13) No Country for Old Men: 13.3%
14) Alien vs. Predator: Requiem: 9.34%
15) The Golden Compass: 8.52%
16) Enchanted: 4.77%
17) Juno: 3.17%
18) First Sunday: 2.79%
19) P.S. I Love you: 1.97%
20) 27 Dresses: 1.89%
-------------------------
My interpretation:
-I'd pretty much ignore the high percentages on "older" movies like Twister and Independence Day -- everybody likely already has these on DVD, so DVD sales will be low...so even a small number of BR sales will take a big market share for such a title.
-I'm surprised by the relatively high percentages on some of the newish releases (roughly, number 4 through 13 in the list...I'll put Bladerunner in there since it's had some new editions lately on both DVD and BR I think, but Blade Runner might also be skewed toward BR like Twister and ID). DVD and BR are competing on basically even-ground with these titles...and BR looks to be getting a decent share of the market, probably averaging around 15-20% market share on popular new titles.
-I'm also surprised that the cartoons (Ratatouille and Cars) appear to be selling well on HD, with a 17-19% market share. Cartoons aren't exactly choc-full of detail, so I wonder myself if the HD version has much extra compared to SD. Then again, those movies were great...so if I had an HD system I'd want the best versions of them I could get.
-I'm a bit confused about the comparatively low (relative to the 15-20% above) market share for the titles like Juno and Enchanted. My guesses are either:
1) these titles don't "scream" HD the way action titles like "I am Legend" and "300" do?
2) these titles maybe appeal to a younger audience (or maybe just a different audience), who might not have the HD equipment that the "Casino Royale" or "No Country for Old Men" croud might have?
Thoughts?
Hans Martin @ May 17th 2008 4:55AM
i own Ratatouille on Blu-Ray, and the difference between this edtion vs. the DVD is amazing, even in 720p. Now the detail level in this movie is higher than most cartoons i've seen, but still - just the crispness of the picture compared to DVD is enough to win anyone over.
i's hard to give just one reason why Blu isn't selling any better, but with the economy tanking and consumer confidence at an all time low, it's the worst time imaginable to sell in a new format. Maybe people prefer media-less distribution of lower resolution movies over another disk-based medium. But then we are talking pirating, because the legal movie download services are selling even less than Blu.
I think adoption of Blu-Ray will go slowly, and that DVD will continue to exist for as long as the disk-format is a contender. But with all the studios aboard the Blu-Ray train, and with impressive sales numbers compared to DVD on the recent titles, I see no way Blu-Ray can go away. And the studios have the power to make Blu-Ray even more attractive then DVD to consumers, mostly through releasing the titles on Blu-Ray weeks or months before the DVD edition. Now THAT would increade the adoption rate a few notches.
Mr. E @ May 17th 2008 10:37AM
EQC, if you haven't checked out any of the Pixar movies on BD, you should definitely do so. They look jaw-droppingly spectacular. They are definitely among the very best eye candy you will ever see on Blu-ray. Ratatouille looked so amazing I actually found myself distracted from the story.
Thanks for the full list of BD versus DVD individual numbers too, very interesting indeed!
Spiza @ May 17th 2008 11:37AM
19) P.S. I Love you: 1.97% is the new title for the week. Of course, its a bad BR title, but a new title is probably the most important to look at.
daaper @ May 19th 2008 10:26AM
I think you may be onto something with the potential audiences. They don't exactly scream high-def and a lot of the people that I know that want Juno (a great movie, BTW) don't have a HD system. In fact, the only other person that I know that has a HD player didn't like Juno...so there you go, for what it's worth.
Truth Teller @ May 17th 2008 9:50AM
"Consumers spent $6.56 million on Blu-ray discs"
Hilarious.......and that's after several weeks of heavily being down.
You couldn't make it up.
I hear it's all going to turn around when 'X' title hits (seems like the Blu-ray support has retreated back to claim "just you wait until titles X, Y & Z hit, it'll all turn great then!"
Same Sh!t different day. Just like we all heard before about Spiderman, Casino Royal, X-Men blah blah blah.
Next week sales might be up......and so what.
100% more of almost f*ck all is still f*ck all.
I love this weekly thread, it really is very very funny.
Blu-ray, the really dumb choice of high def format:
guaranteeing high def movies fail to take off in the mass-market for years.
Mr. E @ May 17th 2008 10:49AM
The only thing you said that makes any sense:
"Next week sales might be up......and so what."
You forgot to add:
"This week sales are down......and so what."
A new format introduction is a marathon, not a sprint. Let's see where things look in a year, compare year-over-year numbers, and then think about making some kind of projection. Your ludicrous sweeping statements come off as ignorant as someone saying "You know, I planted this tree, and it grew less last week than the week before. Obviously it's completely doomed, so I may as well just chop it down now. This failure clearly proves that no trees will grow here for years."
Spiza @ May 17th 2008 11:39AM
Coming from the guy who always talked about how X title was going to finally get HD DVD a win for a week.
I don't take this point of view though.
JDS @ May 17th 2008 1:30PM
Truth Teller
Great point [Quote: 100% more of almost f*ck all is still f*ck all.]
If Blu-Ray's market is that small how much smaller & even more insignificant was HD DVD???? Which is what you chose.
Exactly.
The more you denigrate Blu-Ray the dumber you look for choosing an even smaller & even more insignificant HD DVD.
You constantly ridicule us for selecting Blu-ray yet you chose the format that was humped into submission single handedly by as you call it a "kiddie game console" the PS3.
The PS3 literally turned your beloved HD DVD right out....and left it gaping.
We will see the numbers based on this weeks upcoming releases jump substantially:
National Treasure 1 & 2 May 20, 2008
National Treasure 2: Book of Secrets May 20, 2008
Short Circuit May 20, 2008
V for Vendetta May 20, 2008
Bee Movie May 20, 2008
Blades of Glory May 20, 2008
Anger Management May 20, 2008
National Treasure: Collector's Edition May 20, 2008
Face/Off: Special Collector's Edition May 20, 2008
Next May 20, 2008
Truth Teller @ May 17th 2008 4:47PM
Sadly for you JDS the truth is not as cut and dried as you want to imply.
By buying into HD DVD I took a gamble, yes ok, that' true.
But a very low cost high value gamble.
I also bought myself a superb DVD player (both in terms of audio & visual output) the equal of Denons etc many times it's price.
There's not a single Blu-ray player on the market you can say that about, in fact a regularly disappointing SD DVD performance looks as if it is an intended 'attribute' of many of them (so the buyers can claim to be 'wowed' by the difference?)
.....and you're still swerving the point and hiding behind HD DVD.
$6 million is laughably tiny.
That's Blu-ray's 'performance' today.
It's pitiable.
Like I said, Blu-ray the really dumb choice, ensuring high def movies stay a high margin low volume niche product & fail to take off on disc.
Good job guys. Not.
Spiza @ May 17th 2008 5:16PM
I don't think you bought the XA2 did you truthy? That was the only "great" upconverter. The others are pretty good, but so are many of the BD players. I know the PS3 does a decent job. The BD-1200 also uses the same tech as the XA2, so there goes your argument on that one. The XA2 could still trump it though, not sure. None of them are oppos, thats for sure.
From Cnet's review of the HD-A30:
"One of the disappointments with the Toshiba HD-A20 was its performance on standard DVD in 1080p mode. It does not appear that the HD-A30 has made any major improvements, as we observed essentially the same lackluster performance on test patterns. We started off our tests with the standard definition HQV test suite from Silicon Optix, over HDMI in 1080p mode. It passed the initial resolution test, demonstrating it can display the full resolution of DVDs, although we saw more flickering than we'd like on several parts of the image. Next up were two "jaggies" test patterns and the HD-A30 performed poorly on both of them, exhibiting jagged edges where there should be smooth lines. This was also very evident in the next test with program material of a waving flag, with jaggies showing up on nearly every ripple. On the upside, it did successfully handle HQV's difficult 2:3 pull-down processing test, kicking into film mode in about a half a second.
However, like on the HD-A20, the HD-A30 performed better when we watched some actual program material. The introduction to Seabiscuit gives a lot of players problems, but the HD-A30 handled it very well, with almost none of the jaggies that often mar the picture. We also took a look at the opening sequence of Star Trek: Insurrection, and confirmed that the player does indeed have 2:3 pulldown processing, as it correctly rendered the curved edges of the bridge railing and hulls of the boats without a problem. So while the HD-A30 struggled with some of the more difficult video-based tests of the HQV test suite, it held its own on more common film-based program material."
WordSlinger @ May 17th 2008 5:22PM
@ JDS
I'm looking forward to V for Vendetta. I have not really started "upgrading" my DVD collection except for Memento, but V for Vendetta is one movie I watch enough to make it worth the upgrade.
I remember when they pulled Blades of Glory off the shelves because of Paramount jumping ship. I just bought it on DVD instead (it's not like that movie would really benefit from being in high-def anyway) but I remember copies of it on Blu-Ray were being sold on eBay for absurd prices. I'd like to see the people who paid $200 for a copy of that movie now.
I'll probably pass on the rest of those though. The National Treasure set and Bee Movie will probably sell well, but they're not the type of movies I would watch over and over.
EQC @ May 17th 2008 5:37PM
Truth Teller and NFinity: You two seem to be the more rational of the anti-blue crowd...
So, with that in mind, I'm interested in your thoughts on the market share BR has for some of the popular titles this week. What do you think about the fact that, in terms of titles sold, BR's got a market share of roughly 13-27% on many new-ish titles like POTC-At World's End, 300, Casino Royale, Cars, Ratatouille, I am Legend, Hitman, and No Country for Old Men?
I know that at least TT thinks the 6% monetary share of the total market for BR is pretty low. But, isn't it a good sign that, on big-name relatively new individual titles like this, they're pulling in around 25% of the sales numbers as DVD (ie: a BR title with 20% market share is 25% of DVD's corresponding 80% market share)? That seems like decent numbers to me... so it seems to me like that would bode well for the future, when BR has more titles available, and new releases for DVD and BR are all simultaneous.
Truth Teller @ May 17th 2008 8:20PM
Hmmmm, I wouldn't be calling movies like Casino Royale, 300, Cars or Pirates OTC all that new.
It's a self-evident truth that some titles will attract some of the PS3 crowd better than others, of course.
But it's undeniable that a large part of that DVD total is from much more numerous but individually lower value sales.
Far too many of the DVD market just won't pay launch prices and will happily wait until prices half or go even lower.
So try as they might 'like for like' sales remain hard to show.
The number Blu-ray sales (at a far higher cost) are much lower in numeric terms but give a disproportionately high total value due to their higher cost.
The fact the high def video market is in large part almost entirely comprised of early adopting enthusiasts boosts the earlier buyers there
(albeit bolstered by occasional PS3 game console owners dipping in for a Spiderman 3 type woeful dross-fest).
Nevertheless these Blu-ray numbers are very small & they are down and have been falling for some time so the eager early adopting buyer obviously is not quite the solid ground & platform expected.
Blu-ray's problem isn't really one of content (given that they seem to be or will shortly be covering most if not all of the new releases reasonably well) it's one of almost no presence in the a/v mass-market and no proper range of players.
In other words no mass-appeal.
In a mass-market where the general public in large numbers shun launch-price DVD what chance expensive Blu-ray, hmmmmm?
The movie industry as a whole is suffering enormously from a lack of quality films which is turning off the buying public.
Hence the industry's despair at people buying back-catalogue (ie very cheap) decent films on DVD in numbers and very disappointing numbers of new release buys.
It's a double-edged problem they have.
Far from Blu-ray's performance here illustrating a more hopeful & better future it actually is far more a reflection of the wider reality & general very poor 'health' Hollywood is currently in.
Blu-ray's only chance IMO is to reach a deal with the DVD Forum (which after this fight is unlikely in the extreme).
They could (if that happened) bring out their own version of the Twin disc or the combo, thereby leaving no-one behind if the industry completely changes over to high def.
Without that it is never going to happen.
Equally unless they can get a range of decent standalone players out at somewhere around the mid-popular level of SD DVD (ie $100 - $150.....the kind of level that something like the Pioneer DV400/600 is at) they stand no chance of advancing seriously.
The problems are coming from several angles right now.
Cable & satellite HD TV with DVR & nice big HDD offering 'HD on your HD TV all the time' is a very attractive proposition for many.
Like it or not high def downloads will grow and become a large segment of the high def market.
How big that segment grows to is another more open question.
As you know EQC I am firmly of the view that Blu-ray was intended all along to replace much of that margin lost with SD DVD.
It was always intended to be a high margin niche product. This is no accident.
It also advances DRM in a manner that I think many will begin to find severely problematic and which will cause clear customer resistance.
Obviously it's no surprise that I am persuaded that Blu-ray ought to be refused and we should await the next developments and see.
There's no rush.
EQC @ May 17th 2008 9:25PM
Hi TT:
Thanks for the response...
Just a couple clarifications on my part:
1) The per-title market share numbers are called "percentage of sales per title vs. DVD" in the Home Media Magazine (read link). I was thinking that that was based on the number of copies sold...but re-looking, it is a bit ambiguous and you may be right that it is based on sales dollars per title.
2)when I called Casino Royale, 300, Cars, and Pirates 3 "new," I really just meant that they were released after BR hit the market (I might be wrong about Cars)...so consumers thinking about going HD probably wouldn't have gotten the DVD version only to buy the HD copy a few months later. I only meant that as a contrast to really old movies like "Twister" -- of course Blu has a huge market share there...everybody interested bought Twister on DVD a decade ago.
I, too, am pretty displeased with DRM -- IIRC, they aren't using the full DRM/Image Constraint/etc. that BR is capable of...but it's still there, waiting to be turned on for new titles, which worries me a bit. Of course, I'm not happy with the DRM of (legit) downloadable movies either.
Personally, I am still on non-upscaled DVD on an old CRT TV...I'm still a lowly grad student, but a real-life job is just around the corner, and when it's time for a new TV, it'll be HD...so blu is a likely option for me in the future (provided prices drop, etc.).
Anyway, thanks again for your thoughts...I still think (and hope) that these numbers look decent...but only time will tell.
jayman @ May 17th 2008 9:27PM
Wow TT, that was quite the response. I have to stay you pretty much hit everything on the head there. And while many on this forum will simply flame you for not supporting the BD camp all the way, this was probably one of your best posts.
Mr. E @ May 17th 2008 11:10PM
Truth Teller, thanks for the honest and open comments instead of the usual blather. I agree with some of what you said, but have a couple of specific disagreements.
The first is your contention that high-def downloads will become a "large" segment of the market. I absolutely disagree with this, based on history. SD Video on Demand has been available for many years, and fairly recently was joined by HD VOD. It's the ultimate in convenience, being built in and available to every cable and satellite customer, with absolutely no effort on the part of the consumer to use it. Even with all those advantages, VOD has remained a tiny piece of the market in comparison to DVD. People (me included) just like "stuff". It's in our nature, for better or worse. Now, to transition to HD downloads, the general public will have the problems of (1) linking a computer or some other device to the Internet, then to their TV, the complexity of which eliminates about 90% of the viewing public right off the top. Add to that (2) the fact that broadband access is nowhere near universal, especially outside of major metropolitan areas, and (3) in areas where broadband is plentiful, providers are starting to crack down on those using a lot of it (e.g. Comcast cable). Finally (3) if you're even thinking about downloadable HD content "to own", then Blu-ray's DRM will seem like nothing compared to what they cook up for that. At the very least a Blu-ray disc can be played on any player in your house (and eventual portable player), loaned to a friend, or even re-sold. There is absolutely no chance of those things ever happening with a download.
The more worrisome, to me, statement is "Obviously it's no surprise that I am persuaded that Blu-ray ought to be refused and we should await the next developments and see. There's no rush."
The main problem I have with this is the assumption that Hollywood would take the "lesson" you desire from a hypothetical failure of Blu-ray. Think of it from their point of view. They have invested heavily in two new high definition physical formats, working to prop up the home video market. One fell by the wayside, and if, hypothetically, the other were to die, I could easily see them taking that as a sign that the consumer in general just isn't interested in quality HD video, rather than the consumer didn't happen to like one of the companies behind it, or was upset that they couldn't copy a movie to their PC. I mean, SACD and DVD-Audio are pretty much both complete failures in the marketplace. Do you expect that anyone will be launching a new high-resolution audio format in the future? I certainly don't.
I'm going to continue to enjoy every minute of Blu-ray while it lasts. While something better might eventually come along (which would be wonderful), none of us knows how many years we have left in life, and I'd rather spend them with the absolute best home video presentation I can have. It's here today, and in the big scheme of things, Blu-ray is darn cheap entertainment.
XDragon @ May 18th 2008 12:54AM
I will be more interested in next week's numbers because of National Treasure 2. Its not an excuse or a delay, its a simple matter of curiosity because its in my opinion, the 1st really big new movie release for Blu at the same time as Dvd for the 1st ever release of the title. No other factors will sku the numbers for that release and I think its going to be a good indicator for future big 1st time releases like Dark Knight. These kinds of releases are the easiest for Blu to excel in, the problem is that there are so few new movies coming out that are worth owning on any format.
I really feel strongly that while current movie releases have sucked lately, this low would be the best time to bring out the big back catalog titles to Blu to fill the void. Gladiator, Transformers, LOTR, The Matrix, Batman Begins, Star Wars and Indiana Jones would sell well on Blu because those movies were so good that more people would be willing to upgrade them to Blu; look how well Independence Day and I, Robot did!
Finally a decent post from TT!
While I agree and disagree on some of your comments, at least I can respect your opinion for a change.
Truth Teller @ May 18th 2008 8:01AM
* quote
XDragon
Finally a decent post from TT!
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It was bound to happen sometime!
The week of playing nice?
What will next week bring.......? ;)