More research asserts that Blu-ray adoption isn't apt to surge soon
[Image courtesy of Syracuse]
[Image courtesy of Syracuse]
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)
Nfinity @ May 14th 2008 4:00PM
Shocking!
xemumanic @ May 14th 2008 4:02PM
Whats more shocking is that you're the first to respond. As if this would be any different had HD-DVD won.
Nfinity @ May 14th 2008 4:15PM
Of course it would be different numbnut.. the costs of everything HD DVD were significantly less and players were at $150 (subsidization or not). Production, players, full specs.. the movies could've been published two years ago if Blu-Ray and Sony didn't come in with their fat greedy asses and killed HD mass-adoption.
lakersin2025 @ May 14th 2008 4:15PM
You are shocking!
Mr. E @ May 14th 2008 4:34PM
Nfinity, give us all a break. If consumers gave a hoot about your precious HD DVD it would have completely crushed Blu-ray a year ago, or at the very least over the 2007 holiday season. Xemumaniac is completely right, and you know it. The numbers are low because it's only early adopters buying right now.
StealthMonkey @ May 14th 2008 7:19PM
I'm in that 6% and not planning to go anywhere. Blu can suck it. I'll take digital downloads or DVD over Blu right now. Once name brand players reach the $100-150 range, then maybe. Oh wait, HD DVD players were almost there... what were the deals? Player + 10 movies = $200? >:(
@Mr. E
Blu only won because of the PS3. If the PS3 did not have Blu built in, or had Xbox 360 had HD DVD built in, things would have been different. And in my world, things are different. In my world, HD DVD is alive and kicking; Blu died a horrible terrible death. I still refuse to believe my beloved Red is dead.
Mr. E @ May 14th 2008 7:52PM
StealthMonkey, we can rehash the format war until the cows come home, but for better or worse now the only choice for 1080p video with lossless audio is Blu-ray. That's the world of reality, but I honestly have no problem with your grieving process. I admire that you and others in this thread will be willing to move past your legitimate disappointment and resentment, once Blu-ray drops enough in price. Despite what some claim, those price drops will definitely come. The marketplace always pushes down electronics prices over time, and hopefully one day we can all come together in our love of HD. Well, most all of us, at least. I think we know who I'm talking about.
Let's hold hands and sing Kumbaya now. :)
HD4ME @ May 15th 2008 3:30AM
Blu ray tanking, MUUUHHAAHHHAAAAAAAAAAA
jayman @ May 15th 2008 9:52AM
Is it a shock to anyone? I mean lets be honest about everything boys and girls, HDTV adoption is NOT THERE YET!! So don't expect Blu Ray to come on like gangbusters yet. They said about 35%of the sample had HDTV, right? Isn't that about right about the number of how much HDTV adoption is right now in America(Some may say that is a bit generous)?
So basically, Blu ray can have all the BOGOs and try to inflate their true sales numbers, but in all honesty, BD sales are nothing compared to SD sales. Now if those darn Blu boys can get their act together and lower the damn price, things may change pretty quickly. At least within the "35%" of HDTV owners that is. I for one would be all over a BD player if prices were at least half of what they are now. Oh and they would have to be profile 2.0 and not take over a minute to boot up and load a disc too( and no, I DON'T want a PS3!). Also, don't give me 5 craptacular movies that I would not buy EVER! Just lower the price, and I will see you there.
And I understand that they don't want to lower prices and take a loss on players upfront, but isn't that why they charge $30-$35 for a BD disc, while SD counterparts can be had for $10? So do what those game companies do, and take a loss and you will make up for it on disc sales. I mean last time I checked, those CE companies (not all, but most, or at least the big players) that were making BD players, are also members of the BDA that collect royalties, no? Just my 2 pennies.
Mikael.H @ May 14th 2008 4:05PM
Yes shocking indeed. I haven't bought a single movie in a couple of months. Used to buy around 5 hd-dvd's a week since august. I'm not giving one penny to the blue team with this disaster marketing (can't stand java either). I'd rather pay online distribution than the blue team.
/Mike
DrXym @ May 15th 2008 12:30PM
Well that's a simply weird stance to take. Do you want the best quality discs to own or not? If not why the hell did you buy an HD DVD player in the first place? And with every studio behind Blu Ray the number of titles is just going to get better and better. Its clear that the last few months have been fairly slack but June is an amazing month and probably indicative of a ramped up schedule for the remainder of the year.
Mikael.H @ May 15th 2008 1:33PM
You're assuming that blu-ray will have no competition in quality. That may be the case right this very moment but who knows what tomorrow brings. What other than bandwidth is really keeping the online distribution from providing even better quality than blu-ray, probably nothing. Who's to say there can't be multiple versions whereas one is better and one's size efficient? HDMI LPCM output on the comp and you're rockin'!
Call me bitter if you wish, but it doesn't take a genius to see that the BD team is like Sony, inherently greedy, and has very litte interest about adoption. They are not even trying...
/Mike
DrXym @ May 15th 2008 5:10PM
Blu Ray is not going to have competition for quality for a long, long, long time. HD downloads are going to be pegged at 5Gb for some time to come. Larger bandwidth simply is unfeasible for consumers and people delivering content. 5Gb will yield acceptable sound and video quality for a rental but it won't hold a candle to a blu ray (or HD DVD if you prefer) encoded for 1080p using 5x the space and offering uncompressed audio.
There are also the small matters of how much downloads cost to own, how free you are to transfer your movies, how free you are to play movies on a device of your choice, how free you are to continue to play & transfer your movies if the service goes down.
We can see from the likes of Amazon Unbox that they're selling popular titles for $15 to own. That's not even HD. And you must use Amazon's player client which has restrictions on how many devices and the kinds of devices you play the movie on. That's a movie that you cannot sell, cannot lend, has no features, is locked to devices and poor quality compared to physical disks. Frankly $15 for a download is a frigging scandal and it's probably typical of what other services will sell for with a couple of dollars slapped on top for the HD version.
You are sacrificing a hell of a lot to save a few dollars over a DVD or Blu Ray disk. And a few dollars is all we're talking about. A recent movie like I Am Legend is selling for $19 on Blu Ray and $16 for DVD. You'd have to be stone cold mad to buy a download movie. Renting is an attractive proposition, but owning? No way.
Mikael.H @ May 15th 2008 5:39PM
Your argument makes sense but blu-ray is wasting valuable time right now. They could be taking over like a storm, but hesitate. Alternatives are evolving faster than ever and there is only a matter of time.
My perspective is I don't want to invest until the deal is good and i feel confident about the player, which can take a while since almost nothing is happening in that department. Some big companies have not yet chosen, blu-ray or online. It's bubbling as we speak and I want to see how it turns out before I start another addiction.
There are alternatives to buying blu-ray and I don't mind using them. The difference is not that noticeable between hd-dvd/blu-ray and x264 if you only own a 40-50 inch tv and have normal viewing distance.
I might feel otherwise when a projector is purchased but at least I haven't done anything I will regret until then.
/Mike
DrXym @ May 15th 2008 5:59PM
I think blu ray is slow for adoption, however I was one of the early (ish) adopters for DVD and I don't think it is especially different this time around. If anything it feels a bit faster.
The digital bits has sales figures for DVD and it really puts things into perspective - http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html. It took perhaps 3 to 4 years for DVD to be considered anywhere mainstream. Also note from the sales that Jan-May are dead months. Sales are 2x, 3, 4x and even 5x higher later in the year. Things will start to ramp up for Blu Ray in June and won't abate until the end of December. I think we'll see a lot of change especially in price and the number of titles between now and then.
JDS @ May 14th 2008 4:17PM
What it really states is that 9% of 2,529 U.S. adults plan to buy a Blu-ray player.
That 4% of 2,529 U.S. adults say they own standalone Blu-ray players.
That 5% of 2,529 U.S. adults say they have a Play Station 3, which has a Blu-ray player inside.
That 87% of 2,529 U.S. adults say they have standard-def DVD players.
How can polling 2,529 U.S. adults possibly give an accurate accounting of what 28 million+ potential consumers might do? Based on what sales or promotion that hasn't even happened yet or even been disclosed?
2,529 U.S. adults is less than 1% of 1% of eligible consumers.
1% of 1% would be at least 2800 polled but from what demographics & how wide?
Did this poll predict the 90,000 A2s that sold in 24 hours?
Or that Wal-Mart would offer the A2 for $99?
Does this poll take into consideration possible aggressive sales / discounts / promotional offers on Memorial Day, Father's Day, 4th of July, Labor Day, Pre-Black Friday [Wal-Mart moved 90,000 A2s @ an impromptu Pre-Black Friday sale 2007], Black Friday & the 2008 holiday season?
There are FAR to many variables that may or may not happen that could either encourage or discourage Blu-Ray adoption.
Nfinity @ May 14th 2008 4:22PM
JDS said: "How can polling 2,529 U.S. adults possibly give an accurate accounting of what 28 million+ potential consumers might do? Based on what sales or promotion that hasn't even happened yet or even been disclosed?"
because that's how the studies are done and are very accurate. It's called study or research sample. 2500 people is A HUGE sample that gives an extremely accurate picture. People are picked from various backgrounds and territories fitting certain consumer profiles.
Of course you can't understand this because you are totally ignorant and quite possibly very young. Try playing less games and actually reading a little and learning.
XDragon @ May 14th 2008 4:36PM
Actually, considering only 35% of the people polled even have an HD TV, it would be strange if the results weren't as dissapointing. Keep things in context before you try to rip a hole into someone Nfinity. Also, keep in mind that there would be no reason to buy HD-DVD if it had won unless you have an HD TV regardless of it's lower cost which woould have reflected similar results in the poll unless someone knew they were buying an HD TV soon and were going to pick up a player at the same time!
h0mi @ May 14th 2008 4:37PM
Margins of error do not grow much by surveying more and more people, but the result (more HD-DVD owners than blu? almost as many standalone owners as ps3 owners?) tells me that this survey isnt as representative of people as it could be.
kick1220 @ May 15th 2008 11:07AM
If we take our blinders off and put our sarcasm aside, this is very bad news.
The price of this medium compared to the "perceived" benefit may never get better. And, layer on the worst economic conditions that anyone on this board has ever experienced, and you have the perfect storm.
I want this to do well soooo much, but time and money may kill this format.
Gus @ May 14th 2008 7:21PM
XDragon, if the sample tested had 35% HDTV penetration as you say, that is as I understand it significantly higher than the national average, therefore this result should FAVOR BR questioning, not hinder it shouldn't it?
EQC @ May 14th 2008 10:06PM
I'll agree with NFinity...the whole idea of "ratings" is working out a way to examine a large population by only sampling a very small sub-group.
This is part of why it really annoyed me when people used to question the HD DVD vs. Blu-ray statistics every week a few months ago. When a major survey/ratings company posts up statistics, they can generally be trusted. It doesn't matter if they left out you and your cousin; it doesn't matter if they didn't take results from your favorite retailer; it doesn't matter if they only surveyed one out of a million people. Professional, independent companies who make a business out of calculating ratings know quite a bit about statistics and how to do things right, believe it or not.
XDragon @ May 15th 2008 7:04AM
Gus,
I hear what you're saying but what you don't understand is that there is no reason to buy any format of HD disc unless you are an HD TV owner or are planning to be one and you want to state if you will pick up Blu too. Almost everyone outside of that should not be buying it because even at 480p, there won't be a difference from Blu to DVD. Anyone that can't get the benefit out of an HD optical disc shouldn't be buying them. Look at how many people in the poll own HD-DVD players! That certainly doesn't reflect the percentages between Blu vs HD-DVD adoption so that % of pollers are also people that invested in the dead format and may not want to put more money down on the other one or they might just be upset still and they probably make up 7% of the 35% that have an HD TV. Statistic are proven to change if you extend the numbers out especially i you qualify the pollers first to have the ratios of the poller match the overall ratios more closely.
XDragon @ May 15th 2008 7:11AM
Gus,
Do you honestly think that if they did another 2 of this poll, 1 with 10 random people and 1 with 100000 people that the results would be almost the same? The other thing to consider is what area did they do the poll in? Is it a high income area, low, middle? That will also sku the numbers which is why small polling is a poor indicator especiallywithout all the details of the factors i listed bein included in it so we can keep things in context. I can't stress enough how useless it is to ask someone that doen't have an hd tv and isn't planning on getting one anytime soon a poll like this because they'd be stupid to invest in an HD disc without the HD TV. As the HD TV market expands, Blu will expand with it and that's a more relivent question for them. If you have an HD TV will you buy Blu and if you don't, will you buy Blu when you do get an HD TV! That makes the answers valid.
JDS @ May 15th 2008 11:40AM
kick1220
These are not the worst economic conditions that anyone on this board has ever experienced.
In the late 1970s - 1980s interest rates were @ or above 20%.
Inflation was far worse than it is now.
Our economy was struggling much more than it is right now.
Many on this board were born after 1980...as members of the "Microwave popcorn generation" they have no patience what so ever.
You have to be patient & ride it out, some things are worth waiting for.
This to shall pass.
Some how VHS made it through the late 1970s - 1980s
That was after 4 terrible years of Carter [inflation, lagging economy & high interest rates] then 12 oppressively conservative years of Reagan & Bush 1.
After the next administration is inaugurated things will turn around.
Mr. E @ May 14th 2008 4:18PM
Don't freak out, you're not experiencing any weird case of déjà vu -- once again, a post of non-newsworthy "news" on EngadgetHD.
This is no different from the early phase of the introduction of any new consumer product/format, and means nothing more than the fact that we're still in the early adopter period. After the 2009 holidays, If Blu-ray adoption numbers are the same or lower than they are now, I'll believe there's a problem, but certainly not this early in the introduction.
nick @ May 14th 2008 4:21PM
To me, the format war wasn't the issue.
I'm not crazy about the higher costs involved in buying HD movies and HD players, and after going through buying DVD movies and not watching the majority of them more than maybe once or twice, I'm not sure I really want to own movies anymore.
It was getting out of hand when the same movie was released over and over again, in special versions, extreme editions, or whatever.
I still contend, that rentals are good enough for me. And that you can stream some rentals to any computer or media system, or watch downloaded content via a PSP or iPod is more interesting to me than a new disc format.
So I guess I'm indifferent when it comes ot Blu-Ray or HD DVD. Now don't get me wrong, I think HD content is cool and all, and I have HD when it comes to television, but I'm not going to go out of my way to upgrade to an HD movie player anytime soon.
virgilatmit @ May 14th 2008 4:23PM
Look what you can expect to come out on Blu-ray for the 2008 Holidays:
Iron Man
Indiana Jones
The Dark Knight
Narnia
(Incredible Hulk, X-Files, etc)
The first three could really drive holiday adoption of Blu-ray this year.
Nfinity @ May 14th 2008 4:44PM
$30 - $40 a copy and $400+ players still .. that's not going to happen..
What will happen is people will say "damn I don't have money" I'm just gonna pick up the DVD version.
They certainly won't say.. hold on.. let me pick up Funai for $398 or Panasonic Blu-Ray for $500 so I can watch $30-$40 Batman on my 720p HDTV.
Jesus.. fanboys really have total disconnect with reality. But I guess that's understandable when you don't really make money you buy stuff with but mom and dad buy it for you.
Nfinity @ May 14th 2008 5:29PM
Deez,
you said: "Same question someone else posed. Do you think it would have been any different with HD DVD? You have to be mad to believe that Toshiba would have continued to subsidize their hardware at firesale prices."
I don't know where you get this really. Sony subsidized $300 per PS3 for over a year to push Blu-Ray.
If anything we know that Toshiba would've kept the same price since from the beginning HD DVD players were always cheaper and at $150 they weren't losing a lot if anything. $900 mill. loss for Toshiba is NOTHING and especially nothing when you compare to how much money Sony lost.
Facts and logic are pretty much dictating that at worst this year HD DVD players would've been $199 for full 1080p and probably around $149 for 1080i ones. Movies might've been similar to Blu-Ray but the key is to sell hardware and software would follow. The reason Blu-Ray is pathetic right now is because of all that "we sold so many titles" when in fact they gave them for free. Now when they try to push $500-$700 players with Profile 2.0 nobody is buying.
The increasing support for digital downloads from all studios is signaling that they have no intention of further investment to Blu-Ray on a larger scale. There's a reason why EVERY major studio signed up with Apple for digital delivery.
There's no reason to believe that Toshiba would've raised the prices, that's just you imagining what if scenario that is not based on what the prices were. It's basically just comfort to Blu-Ray fans when faced with pathetic performance of Blu-Ray and the fact that everything HD DVD supporters were saying would happen is happening.
We all know what the idea was for BDA. And they continue to pursue that strategy that will ultimately push Blu-Ray to failure and not only that the consumers lost HD optical media that should've been perfect in terms of compatibility, production/replication costs, finished specs, combo ability etc etc (HD DVD), but they would lose BR too. And all for greed.
I guess it's fine. I don't care either way as I already utilize digital downloads in my house everywhere. XBL/AppleTV HD and other HD sources, that Blu-Ray is really the last thing I use. I would probably rent more BRs if they gave BLockbuster movies, but they don't even do that because they want to sell them so they limit the movies coming to rental.
That's the type of approach we are dealing with. If anything, the only bad guy here my friend, was and remains to be BDA and Sony.
WebDev511 @ May 14th 2008 8:26PM
@Deez
Yes, it WOULD have been different with HD DVD. Why? Software.
Every DVD line was a potential HD DVD line. Get enough production capacity on line quickly enough and the replicators compete on the same scale as they do on DVD.
It's going to be a lot longer before we see enough Blu capacity to get the same level of competition we might have seen had HD DVD won out. Too bad I can't fire up my split infinity viewer to see if that was how it would have actually played out.
In the end I don't think that the universe is ever going to allow a sony driven format to be 100% successful.
TrentD @ May 15th 2008 9:43AM
I voted NFinity's post up because of this quote:
"fanboys really have total disconnect with reality"
Exhibit A, right above me. And I'm a (former) HD DVD supporter!
Dayton Guy @ May 14th 2008 4:26PM
I own blu-ray and still buy regular DVD movies unless it is a "blockbuster" movie that I really enjoyed... Still waiting on The Matrix series on blu-ray. Trying to save wherever I can.
I'm still waiting for my Samsung BDP1400 to come back to me... The power board inside it went out within two weeks of owning it. I'm apparently not the only one having the same issue with the BDP1400 model as I see many reports of the same thing on the internet. Samsung made me pay to have it shipped to their repair center too.
JDS @ May 14th 2008 4:31PM
nfinity
and that's why EVERY prediction you EVER made was wrong...because the data is SO ACCURATE
you need an outlet other then blogging or a therapist
I am 38 and based on your name calling & ridiculous immature behavior obviously older than you
If I am ignorant I am the highest paid "ignorant" EXPERT TELECOMMUNICATIONS CONSULTANT in the industry.
I've only worked in Telecommunications for 12 years WTF would I know.
I can document a six figure income what can you do????
And by the way, why can't you EVER make a point without insulting everyone that disagrees with you? All you childish name calling really makes you EVEN LESS credible.
If you want to be taken seriously learn how to communicate with other people.
Mr. E @ May 14th 2008 4:36PM
I really don't think he's interested in being taken seriously.
wysiwyg @ May 14th 2008 4:49PM
Oh cool. I'm 10 years younger than you but I guess I'm on par with your 6 figures imcome. :) But I still think bluray is too expensive.
Nfinity @ May 14th 2008 4:46PM
it's sad that you are 38 and working in a technical profession and have no clue about things like this. Really sad.
JDS Admirer @ May 14th 2008 5:26PM
Wow JDS, I am really impressed by the type of person you are. First off, you make six figures, which is awesome, and also far and away the best indicator of competence in this subject. Secondly you have such eloquence when it comes to using the written word, perfectly exemplified by your random capitalization and punctuation techniques. And on top of all of this, you have done it by the age of 38. Rest assured that all of us here will loose countless hours of sleep clamoring to become all that you are. Cheers to you, JDS.
Gus @ May 14th 2008 7:42PM
@JDS Admirer
Mike K, I all most spat coffee all over my screen and keyboard when I read that, LOL
EQC @ May 14th 2008 10:25PM
JDS and wysiwyg : can I have some money?
MAK1981 @ May 15th 2008 7:41AM
You have no idea how much you insulted yourself with this post, JDS, lol. You just propped NFinity up.
And it's AMAZING how little of you know basic economics. Yes, Sony and other manufacturers are willing to "shoot themselves in the foot" for higher profits. It's called a monopoly. And any new technology brand is willing to milk early adopters for what they're worth.
But I can't explain it all to you... if you don't know basic economics, I just wish you didn't post utter subjective nonsense and then follow it by "you're stupid" lol.
JDS @ May 14th 2008 4:37PM
nfinity
2500 RANDOM people is less than 1% of 1% and cannot tell us ANYTHING
you choose to interpret this as scripture because it suits you but it has no basis in reality
you are deluded
Nfinity @ May 14th 2008 4:51PM
Why.. DEEZNUTS.. I'm always right.. you don't have to hurt ;)
I HEART CAPS LOCK @ May 14th 2008 5:08PM
I am sorry JDS, but the research poll is not some scam practice. It is an effective method to quickly determine public opinion within a reasonable margin of error. I know that you use caps lock a lot, which really does tell us that you are awesome, but polling is not a new phenomenon and will not die out anytime soon. I just hope that with your massive salary and self-proclaimed expert title, you can find the time in your day to actually understand the concept of opinion polling.
Gus @ May 14th 2008 7:45PM
Damn it Mike K, now there is coffee everywhere!!
MAK1981 @ May 15th 2008 7:49AM
@JDS:
Surely, with your 12 years experience and probably some education way way back, you remember SOMETHING about statistics?
32 sample points is considered enough to model a normal distribution accurately. Thousdands of data points is so much information, a statistician would die for that much data.
And here you are, having no idea what a sample data set even is.
Are you living in your parents' basement? Let's be honest here.
Every comment you say, makes me respect NFinity more and more. You should really stop posting!
Grubert @ May 14th 2008 4:42PM
So 4% have a dedicated Blu-ray player and 9% intend to buy one.
Therefore, installed base will triple (4% to 13%) inside of a year. And that's not counting the PS3.
Is that bad news?
Mr Bobby @ May 14th 2008 4:48PM
As a former avid Blu-ray supporter, lately, I've found myself going from adoption to reduction. Taking advantage of the numerous BOGOs, I was able to build a nice Blu-ray library. 99% of the movies are still sealed though. Ironically enough, the only HD movies I've been watching are the ones I play via my Xbox 360 HD-DVD add-on that is connected to my pc. I'd love to get a Blu-ray dvd-rom, but the prices are still ridiculously high.
So, I went from Blu, to Red, resulting in purple, to conclude in red.
Although I have a PS3, I don't own an HD-TV. So, with the tv missing, the Blu-ray movies are as good as an SD-DVD. I don't deny the advantages of HD. But, if they want to convince the "dvd is good enough for me, thank you" crowd, then the BDA needs to lower prices fast. They need to cut all these silly features about connecting to the internet and chatting with friends bull. Make the players easily upgradeable via either a movie or the Ethernet port in the back. We all know that things are not future proof. They can only be upgraded so much before you have to move up to the newer and freshest thing. Price the movies for under $20, and bring the players to around $150 and you'd see how quickly sales will take off. Also, remember that with gas prices sky high, and everything having gone up in price, the idea of paying almost $30 for a movie and over $300 for a player is just ludicrous these days.
Gus @ May 14th 2008 7:59PM
Wow, I remember reading some of you're earlier very pro BR posts, that is an amazing turnaround.
I was/still am very pro HD DVD, but I will buy BR when, as you say, they stops being priced so ridiculously.
The continuous rants about prices being high because its so early in the products life cycle is ridiculous, BR could easily spark mass adoption overnight if they wanted to and make the money later on , the problem is though, this really is a cartel aimed at low volume very high retail margins, it never has been about low margins with high turnover as is the case with most other CE products.
Jay @ May 14th 2008 4:51PM
So as I see this, about 25% of people with an HDTV have a blu-ray playing device (4% with a standalone and 5% with a PS3 out of 35% that have an HDTV). This assumes that most people with PS3 also have an HDTV (which I may be wrong, but I assume that most would). Another 9% purchasing would potentially take the total up around 50%. I know there's a lot of assumptions here and this is best case scenario, so no need to point out all of the flaws in this (I know what they are).
The fact that someone without an HDTV does not have a blu-ray player or is planning on buying one is pretty much meaningless. That's like asking if I'm planning to buy tires if I don't own a car.
The numbers seem reasonable for new technology, especially considering the fact that the highest number you could hope for was 35% of the respondents saying they owned a blu-ray player.