There's no doubt that many movie lovers were
waiting until the format war came to some sort of conclusion before choosing a side, and now that Blu-ray has emerged victorious, it seems as if some analysts are fairly bullish on adoption rates. According to new research from Strategy Analytics, the end of the war will "propel [BD] into 29.4 million homes worldwide by the end of 2008." Also of note, it reckons that Sony's PS3 will "drive the Blu-ray market until 2009, after which standalone players will become the dominant segment." Of course, a study couldn't come out without some mention of
2012, so you can reportedly look forward to seeing 132 million BD-equipped homes in just four years. Now, the only question is when will BD players
overtake DVD?
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
massive_98 @ Mar 26th 2008 3:41PM
Its a good point about the PS3 that I can't help but agree with. You wouldn't buy a PS2 just to watch DVD's when you can get a standalone DVD player for 30 bucks. Same will happen with PS3.Something else to note: This will only happen if prices come down.
Nfinity @ Mar 26th 2008 3:57PM
These guys have got it wrong every time they make a prediction.. they love to predict numbers in billions every time and never get it right.
So they are basically saying that PS3 will have 20 million+ PS3s sold this year? LOL!
Paul @ Mar 26th 2008 4:13PM
Don't know where you pulled that number from. PS3 hit 10.5 million units sold last month, and to be the dominant segment it only needs to have >50% of the 29.4 million, so basically they need to sell 5 million more this year, leaving about ~14 million stand-alone players (total, not sold this year)
Gus @ Mar 26th 2008 6:55PM
14 million standalone!!!, at $400+, ROFLMFAO!
joe @ Mar 26th 2008 7:23PM
What about the predictions do you think they got wrong? They are predicting 29 million total BD players sales with 50% made up of the PS3. The ps3 selling an additional 5 million units for the remainder of 2008 is a very achievable goal.
I might take issue with the idea of there being 14 million standalone players.
I think they may be off the mark. The ps3 will make a larger dent selling between 5-8 million this year. They will sell more if MS drops the price on the 360,due to reciprocal price cuts. The standalone players will sell MUCH better than last year due to the end of the format war and the US dtv switch. Even then I can only see a sales number of 8-10 million and that high.
That would leave the estimate short 5 million.
2009 will be the year for BD. the us tv switch will have most people buying new flat panel displays. This coupled with sales pressure, an actual use for HD content and lower player prices will make 2009 a rocket year. 2010 should be a slower grow.
Darius S @ Mar 26th 2008 4:00PM
Strategy Analytics are complete idiots. First of all, have they read the news lately? I mean come on, its all about the economy, stupid. They wont reach 29 million blu ray players when people are cutting back on their spending.
Second, the disk cost too much. Only techheads and early adopters are willing to sheleve out 30 bucks for a movie. And i mean come on the prices on blu ray are wayyy to high. If they cant sell 29 million xbox 360's at 299.99, how the hell are they going to sell 30 million blu ray players at 400+ a pop.
Blake @ Mar 27th 2008 10:21AM
Don't you think strategy analysts know how to do their job? or do you think they know less than some waster sitting at their PC with illiterate typing skills who claims to read the news?!?
You disgruntled HD-DVD clowns make me laugh. You all have such a overly skewed idea of how much hardware and software should cost.
GaryB @ Jun 2nd 2008 5:11AM
The comment about no one being willing to pay $30 for a movie (on Blu-Ray) made me laugh. In the UK we pay $20 to $28 for new releases of STANDARD definition DVDs, and last I heard they sell quite well, even in the current economic climate!!!
If UK residents discover a way to buy Blu-ray disks for $30, yo9u can consider SD DVD format dead, and the numbers in this article as being way too low!
Mr. Cantu @ Mar 26th 2008 4:05PM
Yes, having a clear winner helps but I'm sure others, like myself, are still waiting for a price drop.
1stGreg @ Mar 26th 2008 4:09PM
Interesting Nfinity ( *rolls eyes*).
So, a supposed THX scientist talking out of his a..., erm, "preferences", has it right, but not a firm of analysts whose job it is to see trends in high tech?
Riiiight :)
lmao
Note, they could very well be wrong, and they probably will be.
All these kinds of predictions have to be taken with a grain of salt. It could be less, it could be more...
What I do know is that Swanni (Tvpredictions.com) has reported the news as well... :)
Nfinity @ Mar 26th 2008 4:22PM
THX Chief Scientist is an ACTUAL expert in the field of "entertainment" equipment and he's much more IN THE KNOW about where the industry is going as he most likely communicates with other experts in this field of technology.
On the other hand, these analyst idiots (in other words they don't know what to do so they make ridiculous predictions to feel as if they give some value to businesses) are blowing smoke up peoples asses out of 2 reasons probably. Either they are paid by Sony to make bold statements like this or, most likely, they are just making loud predictions to draw attention on themselves in terms of marketing.
Either way, they've done it before and their predictions almost NEVER got anywhere.
What's ridiculous is you making a comparison and saying that CHIEF SCIENTIST at THX is talking out of his ass LOL and some paper pusher, who probably doesn't see any of this technology in person and was dead wrong in 99% of the cases, has more credibility.
Do you realize how ridiculous you sound? Give me a break.
DEEZNUTZ @ Mar 26th 2008 5:17PM
I would say both the THX scientist AND the analyst are talking out of their arses. Research firms and analysts are a dime a dozen so I always question their credibility (read: ignore them).
The THX scientist has been watching too many jetson's episodes. I'm not knocking the guys ideas, just the practicality of them. I don't question his expertise in the industry, but just because he's a scientist for THX doesn't make him an expert on what the best, most cost effective medium for distribution of HD movies is.
Given current trends, his idea that 128GB flash cards will be cheaper than BD discs in 2-3 years is just baseless.
1stGreg @ Mar 26th 2008 6:38PM
If we were talking qwuality of sound and picture Nfinity, I would give more credence to your THX expert.
Here, we talk about large market trends.
So yeah, they might both (analyst firm and THX guy) be talking out of their rear end, but the THX guy even more so, visibly :)
But talking from the rear end is something Nfiniy knows all about anyway Lol...
DrXym @ Mar 26th 2008 6:26PM
DEEZNUTZ, exactly. 128Gb cards are not going to become affordable for years to come and even then most certainly will not be cheap enough for distributing media on. It's sheer deluded thinking to believe they will. Even direct downloads with 5Gb downloads are going to take years to become popular and have some very serious obstacles to overcome first.
Gus @ Mar 26th 2008 7:45PM
I just cannot see this happening,I think this is miles off the mark.
The problem for blu ray is they directly compare themselves to DVD growth, and IMO, that is just wrong.
BR players are ONLY attachable to HD TVs, where DVD is ANY and EVERY TV in every house on the planet and there in lies the biggest hurdle, other than price, IMO opinion with BR, and market saturation will not happen with a PS3 as the main thrust for sales.
Unless BR can get the OK form the DVD forum to make combos or similar how can the growth skyrocket when it is only attachable to limited TV numbers?
Early HD adopters like all of us here snap up this sort of product without much consideration but I cant see the masses doing it.
If the masses are like me and have a DVD player and a TV in every room of the house, they are NOT going to spend $400 on a player and $30+ on a movie that can only be watched in 1 room of the house IF they own a HD TV!
The only way BR will catch on in big numbers IMO is if players and movies are cheap, and that isn't going to happen any time soon, that would be the same result as we have today with DVD so no one wins.
Add in competition from downloads etc and IMO opinion BR will remain niche, that maybe profitable and sustainable, but it will only remain niche.
minimalist @ Mar 26th 2008 8:45PM
"If the masses are like me and have a DVD player and a TV in every room of the house, they are NOT going to spend $400 on a player and $30+ on a movie that can only be watched in 1 room of the house IF they own a HD TV! "
According to another story today on EngadgetHD, 46% of all American TV owners now have an HDTV. That's a no small number. But since only 56% of those HDTV owners subscribe to HD programming you might have a bit of a point about sluggish Blu-ray adoption. But them again since they aren't paying for HD cable there is no reason to think they would pay for an Apple TV, an Xbox or a Vudu either.
And Deeznuts has got it right. I too am skeptical of most analysts' claims. The THX guy, however, is even less credible than the analysts. He may know how to design circuits but he is essentially a propellerhead, not a CFO or a marketer or even a salesman. His predictions about the CE industry hold about as much weight as an Bank IT manager's predictions about international financial markets.
Arkweld @ Mar 26th 2008 4:09PM
Of course the PS3 will drive the BR sales. Because current dedicated players are still feature crippled and only one BD-Live unit has been announced as far as I've seen.
I'd buy a standalone player if it caught up with the PS3. Why pay the same price for a standalone that doesn't work as well?
BMZ @ Mar 26th 2008 4:14PM
I wonder who paid for this report?
Ken @ Mar 26th 2008 4:33PM
I predict a $299 PS3 will really kick things into gear, and I would imagine $199 BD players are not too far away.
And Nfinity - you cannot compare fire sale HD-DVD players with something that is being sold by an actual business trying to make money. $99 HD-DVD players were not exactly part of a profitable business model.
Nfinity @ Mar 26th 2008 4:36PM
What are you talking about? Lay off it baby, lay off it :)
Big Wizz @ Mar 26th 2008 4:44PM
I'm part of that number. I'll be purchasing a Sony 550 later this fall...
Mr. E @ Mar 26th 2008 4:51PM
I think this report is quite likely to be correct. I definitely think they are right that standalone Blu-ray players will overtake the PS3 next year--they will finally become noticeably cheaper than the PS3 by then. Strategy Analytics may be a bit optimistic on adoption numbers, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they are within 10% of the final figures.
As far as Blu-ray overtaking DVD, my prediction is that hardware sales of Blu-ray players (with DVD compatibility) will overtake DVD-only hardware by the end of 2011. By 2012, it will become difficult to find any "old school" DVD-only players left on store shelves. BD software sales will climb slower, since there is a huge base of existing DVD players in the market, and demand for DVDs will continue for awhile. I figure that the climbing Blu-ray software sales number will meet the declining DVD software sales number by 2015 (9 years after the Blu-ray format introduction).
rg23 @ Mar 26th 2008 7:30PM
You think by 2011 or 2012 it will still be 1080p blu-ray or an upgraded model with more pixels?
Gus @ Mar 26th 2008 8:08PM
And do you really think that by 2015 there wont be a valid competitor in flash or downloads?!!!
Mr. E @ Mar 26th 2008 8:35PM
There might be, but flash and downloads won't be backward compatible with DVD. When DVD players break (and they will), people will need a player to play them. Advantage: Blu-ray.
Gus @ Mar 26th 2008 9:47PM
I don't see to many gramophones or record players on the market these days either1
ThatGuy @ Mar 26th 2008 5:16PM
Let's see where Americans "wisely" spend their checks from Uncle Sam...a nice new Blu-ray player or PS3...or gas and food?
ThatGuy @ Mar 26th 2008 5:23PM
Here's an idea to help drive Blu-ray media and player sales: release movies on Blu-ray a week or two before DVD. That gives Blu-ray a little more of a hook (as if 1080p and lossless audio aren't enough) and still allows studios to make money off the bigger pool of DVD sales they are currently experiencing...
...this might help these crystal ball numbers above come true...
DEEZNUTZ @ Mar 26th 2008 5:32PM
Me likes how you think. Hell, if were paying a premium for HD, we should also get first dibs at a movies release.
DrXym @ Mar 26th 2008 6:13PM
That and quit the early adopter mindset and start pricing disks competitively. We're almost there but not quite. I think Blu Ray will have a pretty good year overall.
superklye @ Mar 28th 2008 1:11PM
Obviously 1080p and lossless audio aren't enough or everyone and their brother would've adopted an HDTV and Blu-ray player by now. It's been said time and time again by many J6Ps that "upconverted DVD and HD cable is good enough."
DrXym @ Mar 26th 2008 6:09PM
29 million seems a lot but it will almost certainly be around the 20 million mark.
James @ Mar 26th 2008 7:19PM
These predictions, especially the 2008 ones are comical. Wow, somebody has an active imagination.
nin @ Mar 26th 2008 7:52PM
Why are we still talking about the THX 'scientist' when vice pres of Micron said flash drives aren't anywhere close to being ready for HD movies.
jrosadoHD @ Mar 26th 2008 8:01PM
Oh yeah! 29 million American families will have Blu-Ray players this year! Sight! With the high price of gas, food, travel, and home heating, do you actually think that the average consumer is ready to throw down $400 for a player to watch movies? And on top of that between $25 and $35 a pop for BD Movies? I don't think so! Americans are not that stupid. Yes, you'll sell more PS3's, then again, have you seen the crap games available on the PS3? No wonder every family wants a Wii. Hey, I just answered my own question! No one will buy a boring PS3 to watch overpriced movies when you can play some Wii Sports or Super Smash brothers for 1/2 the price.
Gus @ Mar 26th 2008 8:14PM
I agree, is the average family going to spend $400 on a player and $30 on a movie to replace what they all ready have in DVD or like you say, buy a Wii, then they still can watch movies and play games for half the price!..... niche.
Mr. E @ Mar 26th 2008 8:38PM
Dang, we Americans are so narcissistic, it sickens me. The 29 million player number is WORLDWIDE. Absolutely achievable, IMO. Now that there is no confusion over the format war, there are going to be a TON of Blu-ray players under the tree/menorah/Kwanzaa bush come the holiday season.
Mr. E @ Mar 26th 2008 8:42PM
Oh, and furthermore, the economic slowdown is largely an American phenomenon, due to our stupid citizens getting themselves in over their heads with stupid interest-only loans, record personal credit card debt, an insatiable appetite for huge-azz gas guzzling cars, and oil futures speculators who bid the price of oil to record levels despite all-time high gasoline reserves. Sometimes, I really hate us as a nation for our collective fiscal irresponsibility.
mda20 @ Mar 26th 2008 8:23PM
Didn't the article before this one stat that we don't use HD enough in the US.
That will be 28 million pissed off people screaming at the "LOADING" image that java insists on showing us. These players just downright s**k. Almost not worth it. I can be five to ten minutes into a DVD vefore BD even think about playing. As for BD-Live, another idea from some smarta** in a meeting room. No one cares about that stuff. Just show me the Damn movie without the player locking up and not taking up half of my evening waiting on the palyer?
BD.... anyone who is smart will stick to there safe working DVD's.
Mr. E @ Mar 26th 2008 8:49PM
mda20 talking about DVD in 1997:
The players cost a ridiculous $700, you can't record on them, they can't play back my CD-Rs, and since dual layer discs haven't been perfected, I have to flip over the first batch of DVDs during the middle of the freaking movie! The players just downright s**k.
Anyone who is smart will stick to there (sic) safely working VCRs.
Gus @ Mar 26th 2008 9:04PM
Here's another reason blu ray is in trouble, the following is an adv straight from the Amazon home page today, and they are a BR partner!
Free 1080p DVD Player with Select Samsung HDTVs
Free DVD Player with Samsung 1080p HDTV
Get the full HD experience with your current DVD collection. For a limited time, save up to $1000 on select Samsung HDTVs and get an up-converting DVD player that will show your standard DVDs in high def free with purchase from Amazon.com. Offer ends April 13, or while supplies last.
Mr. E @ Mar 26th 2008 9:33PM
I don't follow. How does an upconverting DVD player promotion mean Blu-ray's in trouble? It could just as likely mean that Samsung or Amazon wants to get rid of their upscaling DVD players because they're phasing them out in favor of Blu-ray decks!
Gus @ Mar 26th 2008 9:40PM
Read the adv MR E! It says you can get the full HD experience with an up converting DVD player.
This obviously creates confusion in the customers minds,why would J6 buy a $400 BR player and $30+ when he can get the full HD expeience with a Samsung up scaling DVD player for much less!
Truth Teller @ Mar 26th 2008 9:53PM
LMAO
The desperation of the Blu-ray shills and their lame & way too obvious so-called 'opinion-formers' is hysterically funny.
That's all this is.
The facts are that Blu-ray has slow growth with the PS3 (still the 3rd place console despite all the claims of what it's about to do).
Blu-ray standalone growth is tiny & minimal, it's certainly nothing that even registers in the mass-market.
Ditto BD media sales.
They don't even have a proper range of supposedly final spec players and prices
(good luck with that profile 2.0 Daewoo POS when it comes btw! ROFLMAO).
The truth is that far to few are buying Blu-ray.
The people into high def & with any sense are filling the boots right now with extremely cheap HD DVDs.
Meanwhile the mass-market is resolutely sticking with SD DVD and upscaling.
If you want to kid yourself you could try claiming that they are waiting it out (for however long it takes) until Blu-ray proves itself capable of appealing to the mass-market (which it absolutely does not right now).
.....and that's a mighty big 'if' Blu-ray ever proves itself able in time.
Between now and then (2 or 3 years perhaps) we have lots of routes to high def, none of which depend on buying Blu-ray
(especially as it looks like BD+ just went down the sh!tter on them.
LMAO!).
We can wait.
But I don't think Blu-ray can wait for the mass-market tho.
JDS @ Mar 26th 2008 10:02PM
1. nfinity, who are YOU to talk about anyone else's predictions? you are the KING of getting it wrong [for life]
you clearly got it wrong during the format war RIGHT UP TO THE VERY END
right to the last minute on Friday January 7th when WARNER'S DROPPED THE BOMB ON HD DVD....
day after day of your nonsense & rhetoric.....
how HD DVD was going to win...
how did that turn out for you????
did it boost your credibility????
2. the THX Chief Scientist is an expert @ sound technology NOT SALES or MARKETING. her statements should be taken with a grain of salt as she is QUITE FAR from the front line nor is she in the trenches. her statement about flash cards only points out how far from reality her perspective actually is
Honestly what does a scientist know about market trends? About the will of the masses in regards to consumer retail?
NOTHING
3. it took DVD from 1997 - 2004 to over take VHS...that's 7 years where Blu-Ray is merely ALMOST 2 years old
Nfinity @ Mar 26th 2008 11:17PM
First of all I was right about everything.. unfortunately backroom deals are something that you can't predict. If you want to live in delusion that consumer picked Blu-Ray, you just go ahead.
The death of Blu-Ray is EXACTLY that. It wasn't PICKED buy a consumer, it was picked by corporate payoffs.
Second, you need to like get a grip and get on with your life. We are not talking about me predicting anything here, I'm just pointing out to idiots like you that what is being said here has absolutely no connection with reality. Everyone can see that.
Not to mention that this specific company has made ridiculous predictions before and they were right about like 1% of them and that was most likely luck. Like, you stab a number and it happens.
HD DVD was superior in every way. It had high mass adoption appeal, cheap price (for whatever reason) and superb interactivity with future proof dvd/hd dvd production.
This was key to mass adoption IMMEDIATELY. Now, it's over for Blu even before it began. Feel free to go nuts when you realize that very little people actually goes and buys Blu-Ray, not to mention the fact that if Toshiba comes out with that 960P SD DVD to HD Cell technology. It's a done deal. Blu-Ray is a goner for mass consumer. Let's not even talk about digital downloads for SD DVD but also HD content.
People are heavily delusional if they think this is 10 years away. How can anyone say it's 10 years away when a HUGE number of people .. in millions (even more then Blu-Ray's base) is downloading movies on a daily basis and renting them too. This is the future and is getting better and convenient every year.
Have you wondered why Apple didn't include Blu-ray in their Macs? They are not stupid. It's in investement that raises the price of Macs and is simply not a sure thing. They are already very clear they are going the digital distribution model.
I think it's hilarious when I see fanboys hoping that Blu-Ray is not a dud.
Let me repeat this to you..
- NO WAY they will sell 30 million Blu-Ray players this year..
- NO WAY that Blu-Ray will replace DVD especially with the new Toshiba technology being implemented in TVs (super-upscaling)
- NO WAY that PS3 will ever be able to catch up to Wii and Xbox 360
In a few years, it will become even more clear. For studios it's a no brainer. Why do you think they are all pushing digital downloads too. All studios are on AppleTV HD, almost all studios are on XBL, TV Shows, Network station .. they are all allowing movies. It's just a matter of nicely thought out copy protection and downloads are a go. Why? Well it's simple.. it doesn't cost a studio ANYTHIGN to encode a movie and it's CLEAN cash for each copy they rent or sell through downloads.
Can't you see how this is the future and a no brainer for anyone who is in entertainment. No packaging, no replication costs, just press a button and CHA CHING, money goes to them. It's like printing money.
They'll wake up eventually. That's why Paramount, Universal and even WB, hell even MGM, are pushing digital downloads more and more over anything else. Don't believe me? Just look at the libary of movies you can get in HD and in SD encodes from studios on XBL. Some of those movies are not available on Blu-Ray but are available on download service.
That's how it ends. Simple.
-
Blake @ Mar 27th 2008 10:37AM
Nfinity is a complete head in the sand moron.
He was completely wrong full stop about EVERY prediction. He's got no argument to counter that whatsoever!
The consumer CHOSE Blu-ray and he is too stupid to admit it.
Blu-ray media outsold HD-DVD for the whole year and standalone Blu-ray hardware had outsold HD-DVD by the end of year.
NO BACKROOM DEALS DID THAT!!!!
JDS @ Mar 26th 2008 11:04PM
Truth Teller
In 2006 - 2007 Blu-Ray moved just over 6 million units [movies].
In the first 11 weeks of 2008 Blu-Ray has moved over 3 million units [movies].
Blu-Ray is on track to move 15 million+ units [movies] in 2008.
Nfinity @ Mar 26th 2008 11:19PM
What the hell are you talking about.. Sales have NEVER been more miserable for Blu-Ray. Go look at the latest numbers. I don't even know where you are getting those ridiculous estimates.
THE DEAD HD DVD had Number 1 title in the top 10 HD movies. Are you dumb? People are slowing down purchases. Movies are simply TOO EXPENSIVE.
And to grow, again, something you simply seem to lack capacity to comprehend is for a standard to grow you need to sell HARDWARE not movies.
JDS @ Mar 26th 2008 11:34PM
@ nfinity
Blu-ray Disc sales continue to pick up steam, with total U.S. sales since inception (about a year-and-a-half-ago) hitting 9 million units through March 16, according to HMR research.
In just 11 weeks this year, BD unit sales have hit 3 million units, seemingly putting the format on pace to easily hit at least 15 million units for 2008.
After averaging weekly sales ranging from 200,000 - 300,000 the past two months or so, sales spiked up to 319,000 units, driven by Miramax's release of "No Country For Old Men."
The Oscar-winner, despite having few special features of any kind, sold a whopping 68,000 units the week ending March 16.