THX Chief Scientist: "It's too late for Blu-ray"
With HD DVD in its rearview mirror, it seems the only topic of conversation is whether or not Blu-ray will ever overtake DVD as the dominant media format. Count THX's Chief Scientist Laurie Fincham among the skeptics, he derides it for being "yet another spinning format", which is only holding us back from the glorious future of HD movies stored on flash cards. By his reckoning, when Blu-ray hits the mass market, 128GB cards will have obviated the need for 50GB discs, and provide the convenience of carrying several movies around in your pocket combined with the ease of digital distribution. Check the read link for more tidbits from the interview with Home Cinema Choice Magazine and see how all that sounds to you.[Via Movie Web]
Filed under: Blu-ray, Other formats
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Kiwi616 @ Mar 25th 2008 4:08PM
I think I'll stick with optical media for another 10-15 years....thanks though THX for caring.
treats! @ Mar 25th 2008 10:37PM
Like BD or hate it, I am SO sick of these idiots talking about digital downloads being the next big thing.
Larry @ Mar 26th 2008 8:44AM
"I think I'll stick with optical media for another 10-15 years"
Just like people are sticking with CDs?
Kiwi616 @ Mar 26th 2008 8:58AM
@ Larry
Umm yeah for the time being people are still buying CDs for the past 15-20 years. Sure MP3s are taking over, but bandwidth will not allow for GBs to be transferred as fast as everyone would like right now. Not to mention the space required for an HD movie to be stored is still pretty extensive.
When bandwidth increase and space to store HD gets cheaper, it'll go the way of the CD. But not yet.....nooot yet - Maximus 2001
beertroll @ Mar 27th 2008 2:52PM
Bandwidth to straight up download this amount of data is not there, but peer to peer downloads would sure make that easier. Still, done on a larger scale than the current P2P usage, you are right, download speeds would be horrific. This just puts a spotlight on how far behind our broadband internet offerings are here in the states compared to some of the state of the art implementations being used in Asia.
TrentD @ Mar 25th 2008 4:11PM
This guy is a nut. A Dual Layer BD costs like a dollar to make. He's saying that within three or four years 128 GB flash cards are going to cost that little?
What a moron.
TrentD @ Mar 25th 2008 4:28PM
Clarification - what I mean is that the cost to press the disc is around a dollar. This translates out to a $25-$40 MSRP.
Can you imagine what it would cost if a 128 GB Flash Card was even $5 cost to create? Nobody's spending $150 on a movie, THX guy.
Blake H @ Mar 25th 2008 4:35PM
Yeah a chief scientist for THX is definitely a "moron". I hear they just give that job away if you can pass an internet IQ test.
TrentD @ Mar 25th 2008 5:24PM
Blake,
Being book smart doesn't mean you're not a moron :)
Do you think that he's right about this? If he were talking about THX, I'd believe him, but this is out of his realm, apparently.
the_boo @ Mar 25th 2008 9:28PM
Being that THX is pretty much a huge joke that uses the same kinds of tactics as companies like Monster Cable to get people to spend more on products that are no better than any other I would imagine their "Chief Scientist" is probably actually a High School janitor in a lab coat.
If you don't believe me, do some research. For example, while many theaters are not THX certified they easily meet the spec, the owners just won't pay the $9000 per screen a year fee and buy a grossly overpriced crossover.
Also, he has a girls name.
MasterCKO @ Mar 26th 2008 11:48AM
yeah, this is definitely a case of someone with expertise in SOME field thinking that he has expertise in ALL fields. Which is usually never the way it works out. He's clearly uninformed.
Michael @ Mar 25th 2008 4:12PM
Blu-Ray and internet they'll never catch on the internet is just a jumble of mismanaged unorganized data
Jeff @ Mar 25th 2008 4:52PM
Kinda like your comment?
jaredgood1 @ Mar 25th 2008 4:17PM
"The ease of digital distribution"... Uh, buddy, I think anyone who lives in a rural/semi-rural area would like to have a word with you about that statement.
TVGenius @ Mar 25th 2008 4:29PM
Yeah, but what he's saying at least is that they'll be distributed on flash cards, not distributed on the internet and stored on them. I could see this, eventually. But I think Blu-Ray will be commonplace before 64GB flash becomes comparable in price to a Blu-Ray disc.
DEEZNUTZ @ Mar 25th 2008 4:21PM
You can tell he amassed a large HD DVD collection...
He would have been better off saying downloads.
Lakeonaut @ Mar 25th 2008 4:31PM
In the future, blah blah...
I'm sure we'll have movies wirelessly beamed onto our retinas and eardrums and they'll only cost .00000001 cents each.
Today, I'm enjoying the incredible picture and sound from the blu ray discs I get from Netflix.
JimC @ Mar 25th 2008 4:58PM
Another disgruntled HDDVD fanboi apparently. Let's hear what Lucas thinks since his buddy Spielberg likes Blu-ray.
By the time 128Gb cards are available, blu-ray will have 200Gb discs at a fraction of the cost. Flash card media or Steady State devices may be the distribution medium of the future but it has a ways to go before then. By that time, the blu-ray format could theoretically exist on flash medium anyway. There are two aspects to the format, the physical technology and then the software technology.
WebDev511 @ Mar 25th 2008 5:12PM
Yeah because just like crude oil and gold, flash memory is only going to become more expensive...NOT.
I thought the format war pointed out the obvious lesson that we get what ever the studios want to give us. If someone comes up with a means where flash appeals to the DRM crazed studio execs more than BR, do you really think they WON'T shove it down our throat?
That said, if it delivers picture, audio and extras that the public expects, at an attractive price it's doomed to failure.
DrXym @ Mar 25th 2008 5:38PM
I seriously doubt you'll EVER see triple or quad layer blu ray disks unless all players past, present and future are capable of reading them. Blu Ray made its bed and now it has to lie in it.
fitprod @ Mar 25th 2008 5:03PM
Maybe he's just bitter... THX must have gone to the studios and said, "Our HD mastering program is ready!" and the studios must have looked at them like a herd of bored cows... "Really? I thought you we're dead on the Disc based market?"
Honestly, what's the last "THX Certified" DVD that you bought that wasn't from Lucasfilm? Even Disney isn't using them anymore.
Mr. E @ Mar 25th 2008 6:02PM
You are absolutely correct. I had to laugh when I put in one of my older Disney Platinum edition DVDs (Beauty and the Beast, maybe) and saw the old THX logo come up. Followed by a presentation that was full of edge enhancement. Ewww.
THX is effectively irrelevant in this day and age. All they do now is act as a tax on those who still equate the name with quality, and are willing to pay extra for "THX certified" gear.
minimalist @ Mar 25th 2008 5:17PM
Why would stores like Best Buy actually WANT to give up the one thing that differentiates them from virtual retailers (physical stock that you can actually see and touch) and why on earth would consumers actually WANT to go to a physical store to download virtual content?
This has got to be one of the more bizarre predictions about the future of digital media I have heard in a long time. This guy seems he knows a lot about sound design but not so much about the human psychology nor about the consumer electronics marketplace.
Gus @ Mar 25th 2008 7:58PM
Yeah, they said cars would never catch on either, andman fly, hahahahahaha.
Vladimir @ Mar 25th 2008 5:17PM
Nonsense, "spinning media" sucks as it is way too easily damaged. I am surprised that neither HD-DVD nor BluRay was put in cartridges, as it shouldn't be hard to put a disc in a cartridge for protection.
Anyway. He could be on to something. HDDs come down in price, and increase in size so fast these days. Own one or two large flash drives, you could store over 60 HD-DVD sized movies on a single TB drive, which is already the fraction of the cost of a Blu Ray player. In stores and video rental places, you have kiosks to download the movies to your flash drives (lower cost because NO format, NO packaging, NO freight) etc. And for those like me, NO risk of damage to PRICEY discs!!!
The key is for someone over at Sony to realize you can compress things and movies don't need to be able to fit 50gbs per movie.
Hell, Toshiba should start working on this right now, since they already have the hardware developed (hdds), it just needs to be improved on.
Spiza @ Mar 25th 2008 7:20PM
Blu-Ray's hard coating makes it pretty hard to damage.
minimalist @ Mar 25th 2008 8:58PM
Make that TWO 1TB HDD's. Hard drives regularly fail so you better have a backup of all your valuable media. Not that this would bother me. I would be happy to use such a system if there was a universal standard that worked on variety of consumer electronics devices from multiple manufacturers.
But Apple, Microsoft, Vudu, TiVo, Amazon, Comcast, Verizon, Time Warner, AT&T, etc are all too busy fortifying their proprietary little walled gardens to think about the big picture right now. If they were smart they would put aside their immediate self interests and cooperate on creating a single, unified standard that would grow the market so that they would all benefit ten-fold. Until a standard emerges, mass adoption won't happen and the studios will continue to be content just dabbling in the download space which means people will be hesitant to adopt and so on and so on.
Downloads are definitely the future but they have a long way to go to get there.
ChiWax @ Mar 26th 2008 1:35AM
Internet capacity, hard disk, and flash memory capacity/speed just keeps racing up. How can no one here see that? It's well documented. CDs, DVDs, and now Blu-Ray. How ungodly long has that three-step process taken? Blu-Ray only appeals to tech-savs anyway and we will move past the optical disc before you can say "Spiderman 5"....Q
minimalist @ Mar 26th 2008 11:31PM
"Internet capacity, hard disk, and flash memory capacity/speed just keeps racing up. How can no one here see that?"
This is not a technical problem. Its a marketplace problem.
Bandwidth capacity and speed are useless if there is no unified format to give consumers confidence and no significant catalog offered by studios. You can have all the whiz bang tech you want but without an industry standard format and content all you have a delivery mechanism without a product.
DrXym @ Mar 25th 2008 5:27PM
It would be very cool if movies came on micro sd size devices, but a little realism wouldn't hurt here. 128Gb cards don't even exist and it will be many years before they do and are affordable. On top of that there is the small matter of downloading movies in a timely which requires a similar leap in technology. Seems like nonsense.
Blu Ray has more to worry about 5Gb direct downloads, but even there, the technology is many years away from mainstream and is lacking common ubiquitous standard for people who wish to own movies as opposed to renting them or being tied to a subscription service.
1stGreg @ Mar 25th 2008 5:28PM
Yeah .. the future will tell.
Somehow, I don't see people collecting flash memory cards in drawers, having to go to kiosks to DL films on it, or totally depending on having broadband, which would make that (not cheap btw) electronic support a moot point anyway).
Discs can be mass - produced, can't be damaged by static discharges, and I just don't see happening that tomorrow we'll handle 3 hour movies in high bitate HD like 1Mb powerpoint files...
Cue next fantasy from an ex-HD DVD adopter ;)
What's funny is that this guy might be interviewed within a year by a newspaper for the release of a big Lucasfilm item (be it a SW product, or a IJ film) and then he'll be all over Blu Ray and its "superior quality".
lol
ChiWax @ Mar 26th 2008 1:45AM
What on earth does HD-DVD have to do with this theory? It's an ancient concept, just like it's stronger sibling Blu-Ray. I own HD-DVD and now plan on owning Blu. It does not make me think of the future. HD video doesn't need Blu. It's a nice temporary home for it in this HD conversion period. But the whole end-point for digital media has nothing to do with optical discs. It doesn't even have anything to do with flash memory. It has to do with my credit card number and a few flicks of a remote. Will Hollywood and Japan lead us there? Yes, they will. When will they do this? They will get back to us on that one. Q.
dgbellak @ Mar 25th 2008 5:33PM
Cost is a pretty big hurdle, which is what makes this prediction a fantasy. But if flash card production costs somehow dropped dramatically in the near future...think about it. It's brilliant. It's an argument of portability and durability ease of use, of solid state vs. moving parts. From optical to flash? It would be a PERFECT way to distribute movies.
Or have all of you not seen what's happened to the music industry in the last decade?
ChiWax @ Mar 26th 2008 1:52AM
Oh how I wish I had some hard numbers on this one. Flash memory costs have been plummeting for about four years now. But as I said before, this has little to do with flash. It has to do with stopping the spin. Spinning discs go waaaay back. And spinning optical discs are from the nineties. I believe 2010 is upon us. Maybe the THX guy doesn't have a clue, I don't really care. I don't think the movies are going to be good enough for this theory to matter the more I think about it...Q
MadMike @ Mar 25th 2008 5:42PM
I like having something tangible. For instance, I visit my parent's and my In-Laws a lot and sometimes I bring my Netflix Blu-Rays to their houses to watch because both *finally* have blu-ray and the drive is long enough that we end up spending a few days at each house respectively. I like to be able to bring a small disc and not have to worry about booting up my laptop to watch a movie. I think SD cards are too small and they can be lost too easily. It would be cheaper and more technologically feasible at the short term to have a physically larger flash-based solution. I doubt read speed is an issue for flash compared to spinning optical media. That and it would be reusable. Not a WORM (Write Once, Read Many) technology. Downloadable content is flawed because 1080p video is so large and broadband speeds in the US suck goat nuts. That and DRM is disallow any really advantageous portability. Current iTunes videos aren't as good as blu-ray and I want quality because I spent a lot on my home theater and finally got my parents to get a decent home theater.
ChiWax @ Mar 26th 2008 1:57AM
I'm sure your situation will drive the market. Do you realize how low the numbers are on hi-def movie sales? I love the hi-def video. I really love it. I love digital. I can't wait to say goodbye to the nineties. BTW, are you that guy who walks around with 150 CDs so he always has something tangible to listen to. Cause it ain't in the tunes, it's in the disc baby!!! Q....
Larry @ Mar 26th 2008 8:37AM
"I can't wait to say goodbye to the nineties"
90s? Spinning optical discs are a 1960s technology that should be ditched ASAP.
Nfinity @ Mar 25th 2008 6:02PM
THANKS!!! Obviously a guy in the industry with objective opinion. Optical media is DEAD END. It's done. Hard drives, wireless USB, high capacity cheap flash cards are the future, not non-rewritable, slow ass optical media.
Optical media is like DAT tape, it will soon be dead anyways. Streaming SD DVD content over downloads even now is present, it's only a matter of time for HD content.
I'm glad that experts are coming out and telling like it is.
CharlieX @ Mar 25th 2008 6:36PM
I'm going to have to doubt that any of those techs is in any position to overtake optical media in any massive way.
Internet is the biggest competitor to physical media, but consumers are required to have very fast internet, some sort of EASY box that allows them to watch media on the TV's (not computers or a computer with DVI cables hooked into the TV), and simple storage. When I buy a movie I want to keep it *and* it needs to be EASILY portable. If I want to go to Jim's house and watch Friday on a moment's notice there needs to be zero hassle. And we're talking zero hassle for regular consumers - not tech savvys.
Flash, USB, hard drives... again great for techies that can make them work. But too expensive and unwieldy for mass consumption. Plus the market won't want to switch from Blu to "Super-Flash!" without some sort of incredible appeal. Everyone will spend the next 5 years buying Blu and it will solidify the 1080 medium of choice... We'll need 4K or immersive 3D to sell a new storage tech.
Joe @ Mar 25th 2008 9:26PM
Nfinity,
When it comes down to it ALL tech is a dead end. Eventually spinning disk media will be replaced but it won't be any time soon. Just as obviously petrol driven combustion engine cars will be out dated at sometime.
BD will be able to get through an entire tech lifetime before it gets replaced(10-20 years).
During that time MANY competing methods of movie distribution will be made and dropped and then picked up again. People have been pimping downloadable movies since the early 80's,At&t. Then again in the 90's with Cable TV. Maybe some time in the NEXT decade someone will get it right. With less than 2 years left it is unlikely that the US will get enough bandwidth and content to rival BD.
Also I can see that this guy is a tech geek. He is confusing what HE want with what will be mass market soon. I bet the guys in Xerox thought GUI computing, e-mail and Ethernet would be the killer apps of the late 1970's.
HD4ME @ Apr 1st 2008 4:29AM
I thought this might interest you! HD DVD+
http://www.dvdcritiques.com/news/news_visu.aspx?dvd=1877
HD4ME @ Apr 1st 2008 6:05AM
Forget it, apparently an April fools hoax!
locke6854 @ Mar 25th 2008 6:36PM
*stifled laughter and snickers followed by mixture of pity and empathic embarrassment*
HD-DVDsucsmyballs @ Mar 25th 2008 7:52PM
Yea, what he said!
And 4k is not for in the home!
Here's where we are now and for the next 5-15 years
Blu-ray + 1080p LCD + Home Theater Sound = special time for me and my hookah!
NEWSFLASH " Chief Scientist Laurie Fincham(of THX) Crushed To Death By Case Of Falling Blu-ray Disks " I Love Sony!
locke6854 @ Mar 26th 2008 7:52AM
thanks for agreeing... uh.. i guess? was that comment even for me? All I meant was-- I tried to give the THX scientist the benefit of the doubt and read what he had to say, but I felt he was making a fool of himself in a way...
conjuring up images of rental stores without any physical inventory (they'd still have to have some sort of electronic inventory) with customers waiting in line, eagerly holding out usb drives for the part-time CSR to place a movie onto it... I just don't think we're "there" yet.... and even though its technically very possible, I don't see the average consumer playing along.
There is comfort in physical media. And although this might eliminate scratched rental discs, it would likely cause new unforseen problems.
...and have fun with your street walker, Mr. "Sucsmyballs"
Truth Teller @ Mar 25th 2008 7:27PM
The desperate desire of the PS3/Blu-ray gang to ignore this reality is really really funny.
Boots on the other foot guys.
It's perfectly simple guys.
Except for the PS3 crowd no-one in the real a/v mass-market is touching Blu-ray for years (at best).
That's why it's all going to be far too little far too late.
In 2 - 3 years time when Blu-ray might
(note that's just a 'might')
have a proper range of satisfactory specs and prices that might tempt the mass-market which means it'll be around 5 years in and still hanging on for fading possibilities.
That's unlikely in the extreme.
This ludicrous thrashing about trying to deny you backed a dead format even tho it supposedly 'won' the little tussle with HD DVD is pretty funny.
But you're getting what you really really wanted, so you remember to grit your teeth & pretend to love it, eh?
CharlieX @ Mar 25th 2008 7:39PM
Truth Teller! Welcome back! You bag of hot wind, you!
I may be wrong, but didn't I have a cash bet with you about HD-DVD being deep sixed by mid 2008?
DrXym @ Mar 25th 2008 7:47PM
Grow up Truth Teller. Your precious format lost.
joe @ Mar 25th 2008 9:43PM
You are a like Baghdad Bob. If you say something it's more likely that the opposite is true.
HD4ME @ Apr 1st 2008 6:10AM
Forget link re HD DVD+, apparently an April fools hoax!