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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Nfinity @ Jan 29th 2008 10:23PM
So let me get this straight.. HDM is outpacing DVD even by having 2 formats and we need 1 format? LOL..what kind of logic is that?
The MAIN REASON we are outpacing the DVD is EXACTLY THAT - 2 FORMATs. Hardcore competition between 2 formats allows faster adoption because the prices fall faster and people make choices.
If we have 2 formats until the end of 2008 we will see $300-$350 hybrid players from Samsung and LG at least. These will ultimately replace HD/BD exclusive players the same way we had DVD R+ and DVD R-. There will be too many consumers on both sides having players and content will need to be published on both. Studios will end up picking a format to publish in based on their deals and overall costs. Whichever benefits them more they will publish in and everyone will get all content in the end.
The only one who need to hasten the HD DVD is Blu-Ray because the long term thing doesn't bode well for them as they have nothing prepared, starting from replication to hardware prices, it's obvious that in dual format HD market HD DVD comes out victorious in the long run. No brainer there.
But yeah, at this point, I see dual format players taking over by end of 2008 and beginning 2009 giving the ultimate FINGER to Sony.
MI @ Jan 29th 2008 11:01PM
So if we keep HDM from gaining mainstream acceptance by continuing a format war that HDVD can't win, then they'll sell more players and media. That's the idea that makes sense?
DVD was the most successful consumer electronics launch in history, simply because there was a single unified format. That is what is needed and that is what is emerging right now. It's that simple.
You can keep suggesting scenarios in which HDVD doesn't HAVE to die for it to work out, but it's simply not going to happen at this point.
kcmurphy88 @ Jan 29th 2008 11:12PM
You miss the point, obviously. HD DVD is going to lose because STUDIOS are withholding product, not because the format is a failure. Up until the Warner announcement HD DVD was closing the gap that had opened when Sony rolled out the PS3s. All trends were working towards HD DVD.
But Warner thought that the problem was two formats and that one format was better, so they cut a deal to kill one. They didn't care which -- Plan A was to kill blu-ray by getting Fox to go Red at the same time. That fell through so they chose Plan B.
Now we find that two formats weren't a problem, and in fact had probably sped things up rather than slow them down.
The question is whether a single blu-ray format, the more costly of the two, can continue to grow even as SOny inches the prices back up. They've already hiked prices on their entry player by $100, and the days of buy-one-get-one-free are clearly over.
I'm willing to bet that disc sales are way way down. I'm also willing to bet that no one will talk about it.
Mike @ Jan 29th 2008 11:28PM
I can see merit in their reasoning that if there were only one format to get behind, consumers might feel like they don't have to worry about winning or losing, and there wouldn't be as big of an opportunity for them to get confused about HDM in general.
Nfinity @ Jan 29th 2008 11:30PM
Murphy,
first of all Warner doesn't think that Blu-Ray is better since obviously all of their releases so far have been superior on HD DVD. They have even postponed Matrix, Batman and a few other titles because Blu-Ray is simply a MESS. The only reason Blu-Ray has any support is Sony and Panasonic pumping money to studios. This will eventually end. Actaully I think it's very close as about $600 million dollars they spit out to Warner and Fox was the last amount of incentives they had. They blew all of their load last year on marketing, studio and retailer payoffs and now they are slowly going broke with budgets. Do you really think they wouldn't make a Super Bowl ad if they could? They don't have the BUDGET FOR IT.. The thing costs another $3-$5 mill not to mention how much it costs to make one.
Studios are not all witholding content obviously. There's close to 40% of content that you can't get on Blu-Ray. People seem to play dumb about that. There's is not so much difference between now and at the beginning of 2007. In the beginning of 2007 Universal was the sole exclusive HD DVD studio with Paramount and Warner releasing on both. Come 2008 Warner is blu Paramount is red. As they are about equal in catalogs with Paramount actually edging out Warner I would say that we are back at the start of 2007 with movie support.
As far as I remember HD DVD was told it was dead in the 2007 as well, yet HD DVD managed to secure a studio by the end of 2007. Don't write off Disney or Fox going neutral just yet. If triple layer 51gb HD DVD discs come out, twin discs with this new triple layer come out, players sell increasingly well at $100 as they are now, studios will follow the consumer power not fanboyism.
Using Blu-Ray logic we've read here on Engadget, Digital Bits and other pro-Blu web sites let me open some eyes for you:
Week Blu-ray HD DVD
1/5 15,257 14,558
1/12 21,770 1,758
1/19 16,496 8,639
HD DVD sales from 1/12 to 1/19 increased 700% while Blu-Ray dropped 25%. Add to that you still have about 70-80% of Blu-Ray players being given away with TVs, HD DVD is absolutely destroying Blu-Ray.
Considering that NPD report states that those Blu-Ray players are really giveaways and not sales then we come to the numbers like 4000 Blu-Ray AND dual format players sold without giveaways.
This means that HD DVD players "OUTSOLD" - meaning REALLY SOLD Blu-Ray players almost 70:30 and I took about 75% of Blu-Ray players being given away with TVs even now which is very optimistic.
Of course these numbers I didn't even include HD DVD add-on for 360 but let's say those numbers are small as the add-on is still $179.
So realistically HD DVD outsold Blu-Ray if you take away the free giveaways. This means consumers are buying left and right HD DVD.
Same logic. See how it works?
MI @ Jan 30th 2008 12:20AM
Yea, they were told they were dead in 2007, then they paid Paramount $150M to stop supporting the format that they were selling more discs on. It still didn't turn the tide, just dragged things on ruining the Christmas adoption of HDM.
So given that you tried to claim that they "managed to secure a studio by the end of 2007", rather than stating that they were so desperate to save their dead format that they made a huge payoff to the studio. Why should anybody give any credence to anything you say? I don't suppose you have a citation of where "that NPD report states that those Blu-Ray players are really giveaways and not sales". Everything I saw directly from them, simply stated that the totals included the give away players. Nothing said that only 4000 of the 38,000 players sold in the last two weeks were bought and paid for.
At every turn, when defeat is more and more obvious, toshiba and microsoft are content to drag more consumers into their dead format by buying off a studio, by selling players at loss, by wasting their investors money on a $3 million commercial. You trying to do the same and convince others to get played too, doesn't effect the reality that HDVD can not win at this point.