NPD clarifies Blu-ray's market share the week after Warner went Blu
Some were very quick to crown Blu-ray the winner when we learned that the Blu-ray player owned 93 percent of the HD movie market the week after Warner went Blu. Evidently the numbers were leaked and the NPD group was quick to respond in an attempt to clear things up. As expected, some were just as quick to discount the Blu-ray success -- which is just as silly as saying the numbers alone mean Blu-ray has won. Two things happened that week that we're not so sure could continue forever; HD DVD sales were down, and Blu-ray sales were up. With some help from a few promotions (free player with a new TV) -- stand-alone Blu-ray player sales were up 30 percent (22k, up from 15k) -- but this alone wasn't enough to shift HD DVD share from 40 percent down to 7. HD DVD only sold 1,758 stand-alone players during the same week, compared to 14,558 the week before. So while Blu-ray was up 30, HD DVD was down 88 percent. So it isn't that the Blu-ray sales were all that spectacular, but instead it was that HD DVD sales were way down. At this point it doesn't mean anything, but if it continues for more than a month then that's whole 'nother story entirely.[Thanks, To everyone who sent this in]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Dayton GUy @ Jan 25th 2008 10:45AM
I did receive a 20% off any HD-DVR or Blu Ray player coupon to be used this weekend only at Best Buy for being part of their Reward Zone club.
I will def be buying a Blu Ray player (finally) this weekend!
Dayton GUy @ Jan 25th 2008 10:51AM
Whoops, I meant HD-DVR... not DVR... I mus be addicted to my HD-DVR at home. lol
Dayton GUy @ Jan 25th 2008 10:52AM
Wow... I give up. HD-DVD player! There... man I need some coffee this morning.
JimC @ Jan 25th 2008 11:22AM
So just to clarify, you will be buying a blu-ray player?
Dayton GUy @ Jan 25th 2008 11:25AM
I have been using these comments over the past few months to make my decision on which to buy... and it just seems like the Blu Ray player has more to offer.
I will be buying a Blu Ray player this weekend.
dman @ Jan 25th 2008 10:45AM
Thanks for leaving out the fact that the BD players were up because of the FREE giveaways with HDTVs. Simply mentioning "promotions" makes it sound like free movies. It wasn't, it was free players.
TigerShark @ Jan 25th 2008 2:18PM
And did you forget about the fact that free HD DVD players were also offered with HDTVs?
jason w @ Jan 25th 2008 10:48AM
Yes a FREE BLURAY PLAYER WITH A TV may have made some difference.
What are you going to do say no I dont want the free player?
DrXym @ Jan 25th 2008 11:52AM
Are you seriously claiming that a blu ray player promotion on a TV set is the reason that HD DVD sales tanked in the same time frame? Here, let me quote you the Home Media Magazine article:
"According to raw retail data collected by NPD, consumers bought just 1,758 HD DVD players the week of Jan. 12, down from 14,558 players the week before. In contrast, consumers bought 21,770 Blu-ray Disc machines, up from 15,257 the previous week. "
So HD DVD sales were 12% of the week before. There is a simple reason for the slump - Warner knocked the stuffing out of HD DVD with their announcement.
If its any consolation, I expect the recent firesales by Amazon and others may allow sales to pickup a little over the next few weeks, but certainly nothing that heralds a recovery.
Ben @ Jan 25th 2008 10:52AM
Wow, I have to say you guys are really making yourself look like fanboys.
Let pretend for a second that Blu-ray sales were flat that week, that doesn't change the fact that despite HD DVD slashing prices, they were down 88%!
Godfa7h3r @ Jan 25th 2008 11:01AM
Ben, give it a rest man...
I work at Best Buy and I know that we were giving away Bluray players like they were Happy Meals. Even to people who didn't want them. It's pretty easy to hit those kind of numbers when you give away $500 machines for free. Especially when you have three different manufactures doing it all while giving away 10 free movies. At Best Buy anyway, it was the 5 free by mail of course, followed by any 5 of your choice out of the store for free.
Why would you buy a device for $150 or $200 when you could get something that costs $500 that does the same thing for free? To J6P, more expensive means better. And to top it off it's free and comes with a basket of free movies.
Throwing the whole format thing aside, why would anyone buy a $150 or $200 DVD player when they can get a $500 one for free and it comes with 10 free movies?
If the WB announcement would have never happened and things remained as they were post announcement and this sale happened, the numbers would still be somewhere around 80-85% to 20-15%.
Of COURSE sales are going to be down that much! What do you expect?
Vidikron (FU) @ Jan 25th 2008 11:18AM
@Godfa7h3r
Spin it how you want... HD DVD sales were down 88% regardless of what BR did that week. No way around that.
Godfa7h3r @ Jan 25th 2008 12:32PM
@Vidikron (FU)
Yes I know HDDVD sales were down 88%, I have come to terms with that. My point is that the fact BR was giving away free players has a significant impact on that 88%.
If Super America offered to fill up your gas tank for free, while the BP station right across the road was offering 50% off per gallon, don't you think that Super America is going to steal business away from that BP station?
If you think that the free BR players didn't contribute to that 88%, you need to take a class in business or at least be slapped with some common sense.
h0mi @ Jan 25th 2008 1:19PM
The price cut came after the drop to 7%, not before.
In fact there was a price increase (since the $100 price cut on the A3 was deemed a "rebate" that expired on the 5th).
TFG @ Jan 25th 2008 10:56AM
Not to mention the fact a lot of people were still trying to recover from Holiday Spending at the time...And I know a couple folks that waited to buy their new HDTVs until after New Years for the Pre-Super Bowl sales...
Greg @ Jan 25th 2008 11:00AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEtSmoNkZSk :D
Spiza @ Jan 25th 2008 11:09AM
I still want to know if returns count in these numbers as negatives. I'm sure there were a lot of HD DVD players returned.
Devils Advocate @ Jan 25th 2008 11:09AM
Ben,
You're wasting time trying to convince HD-DVD fans of reality.
Its just not gonna happen and the FUD is only gonna get worse once Truth Teller, Gus, and Nfinity (Chris Frost) start proclaiming that Warner is coming back to HD-DVD and they're bringing Disney with them.
DrXym @ Jan 25th 2008 11:58AM
I expect the rational HD DVD owners are over this, but Truth Teller and fellow nitwits are hardly rational.
At the end of the day it's just another consumer video format. So what if another format won? It's hardly the end of the world. I'm sure Toshiba and some other manufactures will cater to the HD DVD crowd with a few affordable hybrid models. People shouldn't be early adopters if they can't bear the thought of picking a losing format.
Ghoti @ Jan 25th 2008 11:20AM
The HD-DVD folks will probably say not to count these players since they are not actual sales. So HD-DVD sold more players!!!
I'm just ready for this whole mess to be over with.
JimC @ Jan 25th 2008 11:25AM
This war won't be over until they pry the HDDVD import from Truth Teller's cold dead hands! ;-)
Eddie @ Jan 25th 2008 11:29AM
That's the most factual thing I've ever seen you write, JimC. I knew it was cold, but I never thought I'd see hell freeze over...
rg23 @ Jan 25th 2008 12:12PM
@JimC
Why is it bad to play imports? There are hi-def movies overseas that are still not available in hi-def (hd dvd or blu-ray) here in the US. Stop making ignorant comments....sorry I forgot. You're not capable of stopping ignorant comments.
JimC @ Jan 25th 2008 1:57PM
@rg23
All I hear from you redheads is about mass market acceptance for months then when the pooh hits the fan, all I hear is how HDDVD is still fine to import. It is pathetic...The average US consumer will not be importing squat because they can buy what they need in Blu-ray at Walmart....only a handful of titles in HDDVD from Universal and Paramount won't be available in the short term but I will wager right here and now that Universal and/or Paramount goes at least purple by the end of the year if not sooner...all rational thought points to that conclusion....but we all know rational thought eludes many a redhead....
bry2an @ Jan 25th 2008 11:34AM
Really HD DVD players sales where down. Why could this be? Oh wait I know because Warner is dropping HD DVD in favor of Blu-ray. Ok so the sales where down because of the news in the industry. I'm sure that the consumers will for get about this in a week or so. I mean if they knew about it now HD DVD player sales would be down. Oh wait they are.
Brett Day @ Jan 25th 2008 11:37AM
I own a HD DVD and seriously considered selling it to buy a blu ray player, but i have decided to stick with the HD DVD player. At the end of the day the format that will win is the one that the average joe can afford, and at the moment that format is still hd dvd.
Apart from us techy types who know what is going on, the avergae consumer who will be entering the market for hd equipement will buy what is most affordable ($130 for a hd-a3 compared to $300 for the cheapest blu player). In terms of technical specs the two formats are almost identical and i would even say that until the new bly ray profile comes out, hd probably has the upper hand with the extra content that it's discs can dispense due to internet capabilities.
We all know that universal made the switch and that warner has/will as well, but one thing i can guarantee is that in that lovely little contract that they signed there will be a release clause so that they can go back hd dvd!
I want the war over, if hd dvd loses, they put up a good fight, they have some great movies, such as the bourne series and transformes etc. I will keep my player and will buy a blu if thats the case, but i am not so sure it will be....not the the forseeable future anyway.
JD @ Jan 25th 2008 4:37PM
Considering the average joe will be able to afford either format within the next 12 months, it comes down to content. I'll bet you money that Paramount and Universal will be format neutral by Christmas.
In the end they're businesses, and any smart business will want a piece of the rapidly increasing BD pie.
Matthew Berg @ Jan 25th 2008 12:12PM
@JD
Except one format is affordable *now*. :)
I'm sticking with my HD-DVD player. Not sure what chance it has of being the dominant format, but it already has a significant install base. And I'm still only willing to buy combo discs (not interested in spending thousands replacing every DVD player and drive in my house, nor do I want movies I can't watch anywhere).
BD may be in my future, but only when they have a final complete spec and only when they're such a commodity item that I can transition all my hardware over. Which means years, if ever.
DrXym @ Jan 25th 2008 12:17PM
Blu Ray players are becoming affordable. They're just not becoming affordable because the monopolizer of the format has heavily subsidized the players to make them appear cheaper than a rival format. Instead they're becoming affordable through economies of scale, competition with rival Blu Ray players and so on.
Anyway, perhaps you or some others might think that Blu Ray looks expensive but prices have come down WAY faster than they ever did with DVD. My first DVD player (a 2nd gen Pioneer DV-717) cost 550 + 50 for a region free mod. FIVE HUNDRED AND FIFTY POUNDS. It took several years for them to reach mainstream affordability. Nowadays of course you can buy them for less than an actual DVD. The same will happen with Blu Ray in time. Adoption may even be faster than it was for DVD since Blu Ray has backwards compatibility so people can upgrade without losing their existing collection of movies.
sn1per @ Jan 25th 2008 11:51AM
"some we're just as quick..."
Seriously Ben, do you look over your articles even once before posting?
David S @ Jan 25th 2008 12:07PM
There's no understating the impact of the Warner announcement. Over half of my HD DVD collection is Warner, so if I was in the market for a player and I knew those movies wouldn't be available after a while, I wouldn't buy any HD DVD player that had a price premium over a regular DVD player.
That said, since I have a A2, I'll keep buying red discs as long as they make movies I want in HD.
The only way I see HD DVD surviving is if Twin HD becomes the standard and the price of Twin HD matches DVD-9.
David S @ Jan 25th 2008 12:08PM
There's no understating the impact of the Warner announcement. Over half of my HD DVD collection is Warner, so if I was in the market for a player and I knew those movies wouldn't be available after a while, I wouldn't buy any HD DVD player that had a price premium over a regular DVD player.
That said, since I have a A2, I'll keep buying red discs as long as they make movies I want in HD.
The only way I see HD DVD surviving is if Twin HD becomes the standard and the price of Twin HD matches DVD-9.
Justin @ Jan 25th 2008 12:10PM
i'm glad they clarified the #'s but its still the same data. 6 of one, half a dozen of the other. its not that blu-ray was so great in sales, but that hddvd was so bad in sales.
at least my 5 free hd-dvd's finally came in!
JayHDDVD @ Jan 25th 2008 12:10PM
I have the Panny 30 and love it but...
BD Players are still way too much. If they would drop to the 300ish level even in Canada they could wrap this up rather quickly.
If the players stay 500-600, HD DVD may kick around for awhile yet.
KushielsScion007 @ Jan 25th 2008 12:12PM
Oh my is Engadget actually trying to show some iota of class and not spreading FUD about bluray "winning"?
Color me surprised.
However HD DVD needs to pick it up. Of course sales went sh*tty that week. Engadget and every other "news" source was screaming the end of the format war and trying to cause panic among HD DVD owners.
The war is far from over and I'm glad. Hopefully HD DVD will make some moves soon. But even if bluray wins I refuse to give sony a dime of my money when it comes to HDM.
wysiwyg @ Jan 25th 2008 12:23PM
And that particular sales stat is before Toshiba annouced price drop and while paramount and universal going bluray rumors still floating around? I'm curious to see the stats END of January instead of the 2nd week of jan.
HD Guy @ Jan 25th 2008 12:25PM
HD-DVD fanboys should, in a way, be happy about these numbers, because what they show is (1) HD-DVD is dead and (2) Blu-Ray won't be able to make up the slack. In other words, the sales figures when there is only a single format won't be as big as the combined sales figures when there were two formats. So really what happened isn't that Blu-Ray won a war, but that HD-DVD and its owners managed to escape at the beginning of the bloodbath that is to come when iTunes video does to HD what iTunes audio did to CD.
Brian @ Jan 25th 2008 12:31PM
What about the effect the free BD player had in December before the Warner announcement? Sure, they had more sales, but the Warner announcement, and the Warner announcement alone contribued to most of the increase in sales.
Godfa7h3r @ Jan 25th 2008 12:54PM
What free BR player in December?
Even if there was one, which I'm pretty sure there wasn't, now there are three (Sony, Panasonic, Sharp) and they all came with 10 free movies. Three companies and an additional $150 in free movies has a much greater impact than just one.
burndive @ Jan 25th 2008 1:11PM
"whole another story"
Technically, should read:
"an whole other story"
...but no one ever says that.
I'm guessing it was spell checked from, "a whole nother story".
A proof-reader should have changed it to "another story entirely" or something similar.
Spanbauer @ Jan 25th 2008 1:17PM
Wasn't it obvious that HD DVD sales simply plummeted due to Warner's announcement, rather than everyone and their grandmother racing out to purchase a Blu-Ray player?
JimC @ Jan 25th 2008 1:32PM
Yeah, but the redheads don't care about that, they just want to point out the free player give away. They ignore the actuals on HDDVD dropping.
I'm sure HDDVD players sales will bounce back because of the Toshi Fire sale du jour. But it is always about content and retailer visibility. I saw for the first time in a long time an HDDVD commercial but it still pales in comparison to the advertising push by Blu-ray camp. I was watching Battlestar Galactica on Universal HD the other night and EVERY commercial break had a blu-ray commercial. This is why blu-ray is winning. The BDA didn't assume victory, they fought for it.
Jay @ Jan 25th 2008 1:30PM
Here's a thought. Maybe the Blu-Ray numbers weren't as high because people were buying PS3s to play discs. Since they aren't stand-alone players, they would not be counted in the NPD numbers.
When I get a Blu-Ray player, its going to be a PS3, and I bet a lot of other people feel the same way. I'm interested to see if Warner's announcement affected game console sales.
JimC @ Jan 25th 2008 1:33PM
I bought a PS3 in this time period...
Truth Teller @ Jan 25th 2008 1:34PM
Wow, what a surprise.
The fanclub are back to trying to inflate the importance of 1 or 2 weeks numbers and in the middle of a freebie player jamboree
(s'funny, in all the comments about 'firesale HD DVDs etc no-one ever mentioned the free Blu-ray players).
We can see from the Amazon USA numbers that HD DVD hardware sales have picked up again - and very strongly at that
(as the strong HD DVD showings in not only the DVD best sellers but the best seller listings for the entire Amazon USA electrical items).
Even the Nielson numbers show a small but positive improvement for HD DVD's movie disc sales - despite the Blu-ray PR campaign to pronounce HD DVD 'dead on each and every outlet going.
Tough titties guys, HD DVD is not only not dead but it isn't going away anywhere.
We'll just see how things work out over the next few quarters, not a handful of weeks.
JimC @ Jan 25th 2008 1:51PM
Go spin!...the BR - HDDVD was a 83/17 split. Yes, this is good news for HDDVD if you're a hopeless idiot....
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom012708/index.php
Nearly 5:1 for the week and over 3:1 YTD...the trend is not good for HDDVD but like I said earlier, you're the hopeless sap who will cling to HDDVD until the last import is available. And even after that you will probably transfer DVD movies to HDDVD just to keep the illusion alive or start your own business transferring people's home movies to blu-ray but make a second copy in HDDVD all for your onesy self.....
I feel real sorry for you, you must have some mental disorder that prevents you from participating in the real world....
DrXym @ Jan 25th 2008 2:24PM
A firesale on Amazon is your idea of a turnaround is it? In case you hadn't noticed, sales of HD DVDs were 12% of the week before. It's no wonder that Amazon and everyone else is trying to clear the crap out even if it means throwing 7 free discs in with the player. The format is dead, and you are deluded to think otherwise.
As for the blu ray deal, that is one specific blu ray manufacturer of many, providing an offer when you buy specific TV sets of many. You're pathetically grasping at straws if you think you can equate the two offers.
Gil @ Jan 25th 2008 2:34PM
Charles Manson would like a word with you...
Truth Teller @ Jan 25th 2008 2:32PM
The only pitiable "hoeless sap" here are the sort of deluded fanboy idiots who imagine a format that holds less than 1% of the total annual movie disc sales has won something and that this is now over.
Like I said, tough luck guys, you rolled out the biggest guns you could and it still did not end up killing HD DVD at all.
JimC @ Jan 25th 2008 2:56PM
Just stop it, you're embarrassing real HDDVD fans with intelligence...