Pioneer promises pricey new Blu-ray players in 2008

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Gus @ Jan 5th 2008 6:02PM

Better get used to high priced BR hardware, this will be the norm now that BR has got the anti consumer dominance it has spent $billions on trying to achieve.

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I agree! Now that BluRay is the only format around, prices will skyrocket! There's plenty of examples of similar things! Look at the way DVD player prices stayed high forever since they were the only format! Look at the prices of cars once they no longer had horses and carriages to compete with! Look at the price of knives and forks in the US since chopsticks never caught on!

I'll grant you that HD-DVD and BluRay did compete with each other. But they also hurt each other pricewise -- with the consumer confusion over 2 formats, fewer people bought either format. Therefore, fewer players were produced and the "economies of scale" didn't kick in very much. Cheap Chinese players haven't really appeared for either format yet (yes, there was that one HD-DVD player, but I believe it was determined that it had Toshiba guts).

The real competition will come when 20 manufacturers are making BluRay players. The best kind of competition comes when many manufacturers are making very similar, compatible products -- now when the consumer has to choose between two incompatible things. With DVD players, you can buy a $20 special, or if you really want you can probably still find a $1000 audio/videophile gold-plated wonder -- but they'll all play the same disks and plug into your TV. With cars, you can choose a cheap Kia or a pricey Ferrari, but you know that both will fit in your garage and drive down the same roads. With knives and forks, you can get disposable plastic crap all the way up to designer pricey stuff, but they'll all cut your food and fit in your mouth.

With one "format," consumers will be confident in it, and manufacturers will know it's time to invest in big-scale production. Some will aim for uber-cheap, some will aim for designer high-prices.

I see this playing out very similar as the DVD transition:

At first, DVD's and DVD players were more expensive than VHS. As DVD became more popular and more mass-produced, prices dropped. Soon, prices dropped enough, became cheaper than VHS, and VHS died. Try to find a VCR now -- if you're lucky, you'll find 1 or 2 models, and they'll both be over $100, compared to easy-to-find $30 DVD players.

The trouble, though, was that (if my observations are correct), DVD media prices have gone back up a little lately -- instead of new releases being around $15 like they often were 2-3 years ago, many come out at $20-25, with only a brief sale for $16-18. Even crappy movies ("I Know Who Killed Me") come out at prices I wouldn't want to pay for a major blockbuster.

So, my conclusion is that BluRay's useful competition was never really HD-DVD. It's DVD that'll drive BluRay prices down as BluRay tries to kill off DVD. BluRay will get cheaper and cheaper, become super cheap for a little while as a killing blow to DVD. Basically, BluRay players in 2 years or so will probably hit the $30-40 range, and movies will be easily found for $10-15. When DVD finally disappears, BluRay players will stay cheap, but the media will be consistently in the $15-30 range.

Of course, this would all be contingent on DVD actually dying out, and downloadable media not becoming the "real" format of choice too soon.

The story would be similar if HD-DVD became the format of choice...

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Gus @ Jan 5th 2008 11:12PM

@EQC
yeah, thats all well and good in the normal retail world, but the BDA is a cartel that works together to price fix.If you cant see that then you are just not looking.
The plan was for PS3 to fu*k HD DVD which it has just done and the blu cartel will maintain price fixing, and mark my words, we will be stuck with high pricing for a very long time.

IMO BR will now NEVER become main stream, sony and the cartel will hold that pricing high for a few years and BR will become niche market.
This WILL NOT create main stream adoption and DVD will remain the dominant force until downloading or some other format comes along.
Everyone is saying we need one format, i say bullshit. Competition is what HD needs and mainstream adoption has been poor because of DVD, not HD DVD. DVD upscaled onto a plasma or LCD is brilliant, and the best way forward IMO opinion is with cheap hardware and lots of competition so Joe Schmo will change from DVD. Why would he now, $500+ for a DVD player, no thanks, the one i have now is fine.
You are delusional if you think the blu cartel will now start competing with each other, FOFLMFAO, they didn't do it before, they have much less reason too now.
This is a tragic day for the consumer.

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EQC @ Jan 6th 2008 12:13AM

Can you explain to me exactly why the manufacturers of BluRay are any different than the DVD Forum or the backers of HD-DVD?

DVD had no other "digital video" format to compete with for a long time, and prices fell. Why, as the only "HD video" format, would BluRay prices stay high? If HD-DVD was the only HD format, would they have raised prices up again?

You've called BluRay's group a cartel -- do you have some reason for doing that without laying the same name on the DVD forum or HD-DVD's group? If it all comes down to the price of BluRay players, then that means very little -- all it means was that Toshiba (the only HD-DVD manufacturer) was willing to take a loss and sell players at $100-200 with 10 free movies... If I was irrational, I'd call that a desperate move to force/bribe the public into choosing HD-DVD -- doesn't it sound sinister when I word it like that? Like, if the move had worked and they had won, then they would've jacked up prices?

Look, everybody hates Sony. Likewise, most people hate Microsoft (who wrote the interactivity software for HD-DVD, and likewise stands to profit from it...and look at the price of Windows Vista ZOMG!!!!! (sarcasm) ). But both groups are made up of more than just one company.

For example, the BluRay Association, according to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray_Disc_Association) has a board of directors including (among many other groups) 10 CE manufacturers: Hitachi, LG, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Sharp, Sony, and Thomson. Look at the wikipedia page -- that's just half of the Board of Directors. The "Contributors" and "Members" of the BDA include tons more major companies.

Neutral

MasterCKO @ Jan 7th 2008 3:32PM

Wait a second. Gus, did you just say that the BDA's INTENTION is to price its product out of mainstream adoption? Seriously? You can't really mean that, can you?

EQC rightfully laid the smackdown on your weak-ass "argument."

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Original post: click here

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Gus @ Jan 5th 2008 6:02PM

EQC @ Jan 5th 2008 10:56PM

Gus @ Jan 5th 2008 11:12PM

EQC @ Jan 6th 2008 12:13AM

MasterCKO @ Jan 7th 2008 3:32PM

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