http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/ Engadget HD Comments for Predictions for the format war in 2008 http://www.engadgethd.com/media/feedlogo.gif http://www.engadgethd.com en-us Copyright 2009 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 11:09AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 11:20AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 11:21AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
I'm sitting out the HD-DVD/Bluray war until there's a definitive winner (or someone hands me a player & some movies for free.)

I still think Bluray is the technicaly Superior format, but It loses on account that it's backed by Sony.
]]>Jan 4th 2008 11:21AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
I don't think anyone cares about rental. Downloadable content is a good match for rental because DRM is irrelevant. The issue is with content you own. Who the hell in their right minds would BUY a DLC movie when the quality is so much worse, there are no features, it's tied to a device, your device has finite capacity and you don't even have something to lend to others or sell on later. It's not like the price is much cheaper either. Even an XBox 360 Elite couldn't hold more than 30 HD movies, and probably less than that.]]>Jan 4th 2008 12:38PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
Not only that, but also for online 1080p-quality HD movie rentals to become a reality, internet speeds must accelerate much further from their current pace (and still maintain affordability) and wireless standards must grow up in bandwidth, and that would require investing billion$ in fiber optics to support wired Gigabit internet and also investing billion$ in both a several-GHz-wide spectrum band and ultra-linear ultra-speed RF-grade semiconductors to support wireless Gigabit internet. Don't expect such a thing within the next ten years; and even whenever such mega-fast internet were to become a reality, a newer physical format much better than both BD and HDDVD (with nine times more resolution than 1080p, twice the # of audio channels than Dolby 5.1 at double sampling rate, MPEG-7 compression, and capacity in the tens of terabytes) would've already emerged then. I even dare to predict that a newer company yet to be known, much bigger than Microsoft and Sony combined, would be at such time the new big daddy, kicking the asses of M$, Apple, Sony, Warner, Intel, and several others to the verge of almost becoming a mega-monopoly on its own right...]]>Jan 7th 2008 2:56PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 11:24AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
The same Chinese manufacturers that currently sell huge numbers of nice inexpensive upscaling SD DVD players (way more than both high def formats currently do combined) are going to switch to selling huge numbers of those nice inexpensive upscaling DVD players that also happen to play HD DVD very well that they are licenced to.....and for much the same kind of money too (sub $100).

Blu-ray simply have no answer to this.

Movie disc prices will fall thanks to a move to Twin discs and the vast production numbers that will mean when the separation between SD DVD & HD DVD movies vanishes.

Again (besides further ruinous subsidy) Blu-ray has no answer to this.

That's when HD DVD moves into the mass-market in a big way and begins to take the mainstream a/v mass-market.
Inexpensively, easily and seamlessly, just how the vast bulk of regular people want it to be.

Blu-ray will simply get left behind as another failed game console format (with a relatively minute amount of PC burner and standalone activity tacked on).

Last year laid the groundwork and seemed fairly boring because of it but things will absolutely not be the same by this time next year.

HD DVD will be obviously the winner.

Blu-ray will be well on the way to being the stagnate console format that never really lived up to what was once imagined to be it's potential that it is, even if it does have at least a potential market of several millions worldwide.
The new UMD, no less. ]]>Jan 4th 2008 11:24AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
On a similar note, I'm still surprised there are so many purple people. If either format loses, you lose. It just still doesn't make sense to me.]]>Jan 4th 2008 11:29AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
Nice pessimistic approach... how about, if their format wins, you win. I have a HD-A2 and a BDP-1400 and I am enjoying HD media with an investment of $400... not bad, I remember when DVD players cost that much.

The only thing I am worried is that I will need to buy new players in the future with the stupid profile switches for BD and the god damned DTS-HD formats for HD audio. FFS! Use whats standard and already in use! Im looking at you Profile crap and studios that DTS. ]]>Jan 4th 2008 11:56AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 12:03PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
You seem to base everything thing on faith that HDDVD is just going to win the hearts and minds of the consumer because it is cheap??? I can buy a VCR real cheap but what for? The movies that most people want to watch are on Blu-ray, I don't care what you say, unless Disney, goes neutral HDDVD doesn't have a chance because like it or not, middle class families will most likely make up the largest consumer base for HD media and what do families like to buy for family viewing? Disney movies. Cheap players only get you so far, you have to have something worthy to watch on the cheap player to make it stick.

Also, blu-ray is killing HDDVD in advertising, again I think this is the biggest blunder of HDDVD. They have the name that should stick but they lost that advantage being arrogant and now blu-ray is being seen on the big HD channels on TV and not even an HDDVD commercial to be found of late. Blu-ray even advertises on Universal HD which is really ironic...

There is absolutely no sound reason why or how HDDVD could pull it out. Even if Warner goes HDDVD, it still would not end Blu-ray unfortunately for you and probably the reason behind your delusional fantasy scenario of Warner going HDDVD exclusive, if Warner goes blu-ray exclusive, that will mean the death of HDDVD.

Bluray has the:
* more blockbuster movie titles
* Disc Capacity for future HD media
* Manufacturer and studio stupport
* Sales lead by a comfortable margin
* Managed to make its name known as HiDef DVD even when HDDVD had that built into its name

What does HDDVD have?
* Features that roughly 9% of the market cares about
* lower capacity discs
* fewer blockbuster titles
* slightly cheaper players
* fewer players period (no spin numbers)
* consistently lower sales numbers for titles

So how is HDDVD going to win? Cheaper players? That's it? With all the cheap players and features in the world, HDDVD still will not have the title selection needed to make a difference. The hits are just not there.

And I've noticed that you're not boasting so much that Warner is going HDDVD exclusive at CES, is that still your "inside" information or are you not so sure now?

]]>Jan 4th 2008 12:04PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
No, this war will not be won with hardware. It falls down to content, and it's easy to see scenarios where it could go either way. Microsoft is not averse to bribing companies and that may well be the way HD DVD wins, if it wins. Or it may be that Blu Ray hang onto their studios while the prices drop and then sheer weight of releases combined with wide availability of players will ensure its game over for HD DVD.]]>Jan 4th 2008 12:44PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 4:36PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
Dewey defeats Truman!

"Truth Teller"? More like "Truth 'Tard".
]]>Jan 4th 2008 11:27PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 5th 2008 11:41AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/(1) a lot of major studios will start to support both formats.
(2) Since format war goes into stalemate due to #1, HDM goes into a slow but sure death.]]>Jan 4th 2008 11:32AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
People are still buying huge numbers of sub $100 DVD players.

The Chinese are launching 'HD DVD China' in march.

That's where those sub $100 HD DVD players are going to be coming from (and everybody already saw that $98 HD DVD flies off the shelves when it's available).

The big deal here is not the early adopter or even the game console market nor even the early adopting a/v enthusiasts who bought into the game console as the early best way into BD.

The big deal is getting those same people who are buying SD DVD in vast numbers to buy HD DVD in vast numbers and a seamless switch to a nice (in fact even better) upscaling DVD player which also happens to play HD DVDs - for the same sort of money as they now are paying - is the way to do it.

Making movie discs all the same is the other huge step in this.

Those are not speculations, they are events in the pipeline and about to happen very very soon.]]>Jan 4th 2008 11:35AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/100 U.S. dollars = 727.500236 Chinese yuan
The average income of production and transportation workers was 12300 yuan per year.
That isn't averaging in the near 1 billion in poverty.

Spitting up nearly a months salary for a HD player puts it in the same range as a high end player here($1000 usd).

Plus who is going to make media in content pirate central?

China is a power when it can make super cheap items for internal consumption, $10 DVD players, or moderately priced items for US consumption, $30 dvd players. Trying to make a $100 (c)hd-dvd player fly there will be a tough sell. Maybe they will sell a few 100k of them internally to those who are rich enough to afford it and don't want to play any non-domestic content.

Just like anywhere content is king, unless HD_DVD is going to release titles in chd-dvd it'll have trouble gaining traction there also.]]>Jan 4th 2008 2:01PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 6:43PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
- Warner WILL pick a side. Maybe not at CES, but probably.
- That side will be HD DVD.

IF they pick HD DVD: within two months, the weekly sales numbers will skew to 60/40 HD/BD. Within a year, another major defection will follow, with Fox or Disney going format neutral or Red.

IF they pick Blu-ray: within two months, Blu-ray sales numbers will skew to 80/20 BD/HD, and within a year, Blu-ray will win the war.]]>Jan 4th 2008 11:42AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 12:06PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 12:11PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 12:41PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
How would you like to be in a position where you don't only make money off the items you sell, but all the items your comeptitors sell as well?

Warner has a lot to gain by going HD DVD other than software sales. They're looking at the big picture, which includes patent revenues.]]>Jan 4th 2008 12:56PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 1:12PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/You are correct, but I was referring to HD media only, and since DVD sales are declining, Warner would no doubt want to push for HD media and out of HD media, Blu-ray makes them more money, hands down.]]>Jan 4th 2008 1:20PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
The patents Warner holds is not for hardware from my understanding but in any case, holding patents of a low performing product is not incidentive to perpetuate support of it. Like I have stated before, Microsoft is king at this game. They will buy stock or invest in many technologies to hedge their bets but they will not hesitate to cut off their own arm for the profit. Stock in a loser is a losing stock....]]>Jan 4th 2008 1:22PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
If HD DVD wins the format war (and Warner may have the clout to end it), then HD DVD adoption will expand very quickly, and it will succeed dramatically.

It's not like people just won't buy HD DVD because Blu-ray failed. Consumers don't care - they just want HD video. We haven't scratched the surface of HD disc adoption. There are billions to be made through patents.]]>Jan 4th 2008 1:40PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 2:24PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 11:47AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/I think it would be cool if all the movie studios would go neutral! Let the customer choose]]>Jan 4th 2008 12:03PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 12:12PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
If it's one or the other only, then there's no incentive for price reductions or freebie offers in the future.

]]>Jan 4th 2008 2:25PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
For Blu-Ray, I predict they will pay Warner a huge bag full of cash to go Blu exclusive and crush the red commies once and for all.

]]>Jan 4th 2008 12:08PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
2) Samsung releases the BD-P1500 in mid-summer with an SRP of $199. Throughout the year it drops, via various specials, to $99.

3) For the holiday season, Sony drops the 40GB PlayStation 3 to $299 and bundles an exclusive game (like "Uncharted") and the Blu-ray version of either "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" (Spielberg's films are not confined by Paramounts's HD-DVD agreement) or "The Dark Knight."

4) Paramount and DreamWorks announce in December 2008 that their HD-DVD exclusivity agreement (ending in February 2009) will not be renewed after the Blu-ray version of "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" (Spielberg's films are not confined by the agreement) outsells the HD-DVD version.]]>Jan 4th 2008 12:16PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
Fanboys from both camps gloat when their opponent loses.]]>Jan 4th 2008 12:15PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 12:16PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
1) The A2's @ $98 (for 2 days, discounted so low under cost that 4 states banned them) did sell well. But they are by no mean "off the shelves". Walmart is still trying to get rid of em at $198, without success (confirmed with my own eyes).
2) "The BDA has no answer to Cheap Chinese HD DVD players".
Really? Then why is the Blu Ray side having both Funai(cheap Jap. maker) and -at least- one Cheap Chinese company anouncing players at the CES ? :)
3) Several stores and retailers have anounced huge sales with the Sony BDS300 and the Samsung 1400 at $299, and the PS3 is having a huge momentum. I expect a nice anouncement about this at the CES :)
4) Oh, as for disc sales, it's a confirmed 52 Weeks of Blu Ray wins btw, aka the whole of 2007. Standalone are barely above Blu Ray standalones at this point (not counting Xbox add ons). And yes I do think that 200k players (if that) is "barely" afer discounting prices on hardware that much :)

Now, about the predictions for 2008

* Warner does go Blu Exclusive, but about a month after the CES (in Feb, when the new CEO makes his speech to shareholders)
* Shortly after (or even during CES), a Red exclusive goes Neutral.
* Articles about the demise of HD DVD flourish everywhere, and the new 1.1 players @ $299 along with the old 1.0 players+ chinese 1.1 at sub $200 start touching the mass market by mid-2008
* Mid/fall 2008, profile 2.0 is launched (BD Live) along with PS3's "Home" and spectacular online features.
* Fall/end 2008 MS anounces its withdrawal from HD DVD to concentrate on Downloads/ Live service, and now profess that they believe that there is room for both a physical support (hinted at Blu Ray) and the rising use of HD downaloads and Vod.
* Xmas 08 - basic Blu players fly off the shelves (entry level at $129 with Chinese players, possibly a $99 Walmart, and average $239 for 2.0 profile).]]>Jan 4th 2008 12:20PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 12:34PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
]]>Jan 4th 2008 12:40PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
Both sides are going to have to do more if they want to increase their market share. Hybrid disks are one way to introduce people to the new formats but it's more important that prices of players and movies drops closer to DVD levels. The studios are far too greedy, especially in Europe and the price of media is so high that you'd have to be a rabid early adopter to buy any of it. This mindset plus the ongoing war is slowing adoption.]]>Jan 4th 2008 1:06PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 4th 2008 1:19PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 5th 2008 12:24PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/]]>Jan 4th 2008 1:02PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
Oh, no wait, that's a "request", not a "predict".]]>Jan 4th 2008 1:02PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
Warner doesn't stand to lose a lot of money if they drop HD-DVD because of licensing. They are the only major studio that was using the majority of patents they applied for.]]>Jan 4th 2008 1:15PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
In three years we no longer see red cases or blue cases on the store shelfs, we instead see a SD or HD version in a black box again.

Why does there need to be a "winner" blu-ray and hd dvd both currently have the same Picture quality. Not a single major studio is prepared or working on bringing anything better than what they can barely give us now. So a superior storage format conversation is pointless.

Why is blu-ray and hd dvd considered so different from +dvd and -dvd when that little inconvenience showed up people got all crazy then too.

Dual format hardware is the way this will play out just like +dvd/-dvd did.

Look at it like this the major studios (mainly universal) are in the business of making money right? For them to ever switch to blue would just mean a loss to them, considering all the cost to convert there huge disc production factors to accommodate blu-ray. Right now if you own a hd dvd player every 2 out of 3 discs you buy is a universal title, so there making money, and a lot of it, why would they do anything else?

Really one format or another doesn't matter to the customers as long as the product works and is affordable, so competition as a been a great thing for HDM's if it were not for this little inconvenience we would still have 1000.00 HDM players.

This dual format hardware will be cheaper and more company's will have players and next the same. By 2010 online movies will be bigger and put pressure on the last company's still trying to hold on to the single format stratiges and they will go dual also and the rest is like a said at the beginning.

In three years we no longer see red cases or blue cases on the store shelfs, we instead see a SD or HD version in a black box again.]]>Jan 4th 2008 1:21PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/
That BD will be the dominant format moving forward but HD-DVD will save face in some way based on the compromise.

I also predict that within a matter of days after said compromise is reached that a firmware update for the PS3 and all SA BD players to enable them to play HD-DVDs will be released.

This would be a face saving gesture for HD-DVD. And would help move remaining HD-DVDs @ retail.

Based on the lens a BD player uses it will be easy to add HD-DVD playing software / firmware. How ever based on the lens in HD-DVD players these machines cannot be updated VIA software / firmware to play BDs.]]>Jan 4th 2008 2:17PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/predictions-for-the-format-war-in-2008/Jan 5th 2008 6:10AM