Analysts: Blu-ray might, maybe, could win in 2008
by Richard Lawler 
posted Dec 22nd 2007 at 6:14PM
Blu-ray mouthpiece Hollywood in Hi-Def has yet another reason to downplay Paramount's switch to HD DVD, with a new analysts report indicating the format war has continued to go Blu-ray's way. Understanding & Solutions sees this holiday season as key to both formats, and while there "may be surprises just around the corner" (perhaps at CES?) "we could see a lot more format clarity in 2008". While they might not be getting a holiday card from the guys at Screen Media Digest (who just said the format war would continue stalemated), we're sure those holding out for a BD-J release of Transformers feel heartened
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Nate the Prophet @ Dec 22nd 2007 6:28PM
If someone doesn't "win" this year, then both formats will loose.
Region Free HD @ Dec 22nd 2007 8:01PM
Why, exactly?
JimC @ Dec 22nd 2007 10:36PM
The reason it needs to be decided soon is because according to surveys, most consumers are waiting to see which formats wins before stepping into the HD disc arena and with DVD sales dropping off, movie studios want/need to get people buying into HD. This is why a single format needs to be settled upon, to get consumers to commit. The longer this stand-off continues, the longer it will take consumers to buy into the HD disc market wholly.
This is why titles sales are most important right now, to show strong numbers and coax other consumers into the market. Strong sales = more confidence by those waiting. Who has the strong sales of titles and total HD playable devices (irregardless of "dedicated player" spin, BOGOS, and any other bloody excuses)? Answer that and you might have the one which comes out on top.
Region Free HD @ Dec 23rd 2007 6:53AM
@JimC
That doesn't answer the whole question, though, or the most pertinent part: why "this year?" Let's just assume Nate meant 2008 and not THIS year. And what will both "loose?" "Lose," even?
This standoff is not the only thing stopping people from wholly buying into HDM. Maybe it's because they haven't wholly bought into HDTV yet?
This is why hardware sales are most important right now. HD display hardware. Sell more of that, and the market for HDM grows.
Who has the ability to ride out the transition at it's natural pace without the need of declaring victory at every turn for fear of bleeding money from every orifice and potentially going belly up in the meantime? Answer that and you might have the one which comes out on top.
Bill @ Dec 22nd 2007 6:42PM
LoL... yea sure. All I have to say is plot an x,y graph... with x representing the amount of HDM players sold, and y representing software sales. Plot blu-ray vs HD-DVD, and stare at the trend. 2006, HD-DVD wins, 2007 Blu-ray wins (as expected beacuse of the PS3); the trend clearly shows that HD-DVD will be able to edge out it's rival in 2008, with less studio support nonetheless.
If WB goes Blu-ray exclusive though, game over HD-DVD. But if ANY exclusive Blu-ray studio switches sides or even goes neutral, easy win for HD-DVD.
Can't wait for CES 2008! Im sure something will happen, and we'll have a much better idea as to which format will prevail!
Jason @ Dec 22nd 2007 6:36PM
With support from more studios and of course Sony and Samsung-- oh yeah and with the ability to store more data and less of a chance to scratch the discs-- how could you not choose the format with the cooler name.
http://www.professionalwatches.com
Kompressor @ Dec 23rd 2007 1:49AM
Well let's see, Blu-Ray discs and players will always stay artificially high, and Blu-Ray movies cannot be streamed over a network because of its abnormally high copy protection.
HD4ME @ Dec 22nd 2007 6:38PM
WTF???
According to the BDA, HD DVD is all ready dead. In fact, according to the announcements, HD DVD died 14 times in 2007.
Griffon2k @ Dec 22nd 2007 6:46PM
Nate,
Both formats will do just fine if both survive. The idea that one must win is one of propaganda. As consumers we should not subscribe to it. We benefit from competition. If only one survives, competition does not exist.
HD DVD and Blu-ray will go the route of DVD +/-
locke6854 @ Dec 22nd 2007 6:52PM
wrong... with most things, like television manufacturers, sure. With media? competition isn't as beneficial. Maybe price cuts early on, but the losing format gets shut out. All that money you'd lose from the obsolete media you bought. DVD didn't require competition for media, just for players. And theres nothing wrong with PLAYERS from ONE format, having multiple manufacters.
Region Free HD @ Dec 22nd 2007 7:57PM
@locke6854
Yes! This is exactly what stopped VCRs from catching on.
:p
Matt @ Dec 22nd 2007 8:30PM
There's absolutely no reason why one format needs to win. I just want to see combo players come down to reasonable levels so we can stop with all this.
Wes @ Dec 23rd 2007 12:24AM
@Matt
I hear you. I used to be red. I'll admit it. I bought the xbox 360 dvd-player addon. Heck, it was thee cheapest way to get into hdtv about a year ago. At the point, even hd-dvd standalone players were $300-$400 and Blu-ray more.
Recently though, for $240.00 I bought a combo drive for my home theatre pc and that made me purple.
I'm still routing for hd-dvd a bit though. Perhaps its cause that's where I first invested my money and have the largest movie library? I think I also prefer the specifications a bit more...like the built in ethernet port, built in storage space for downloadable content, web connectivity features and interactivity featuers like PIP.
Though of course eventually each format will match eachother in features. I would just hate to see hd-dvd win though. Its like the small family restaurant that provides a unique good menu of choices to chose from(See spec features above), of equal quality food in taste(video quality) but provide lightly smaller portions (storage space) but at a much cheaper cost than the bigger chain restaurant(Blu-ray) next door.
It seems the big chain restaurant keeps touting how big their portions are, offering two-for-one sales to draw away business from the family restaurant anytime they have a chance to win, making bogus claims of their superiority and declaring the family restaurant dead again and again.
The only exception I can find is the PS3 as a blu-ray player because it potentially plays games as well. So a PS3 to me would be like if the big chain restaurant had a gymnasium for your kids or live music/bands playing. Another form of entertainment while dining. In that case, I'd say the price premium for the one restaurant over the other might be worth it. Still, the dirty marketing tactics trying to sell a equal product with a smaller menu, smaller porpotions at double the cost doesn't leave as good of a taste in my mouth.
Though in all honestly, they are both giant mega-corpotions and the furthest thing from a small business. I just loath Sony's arogant attitude. We're the kind of the world! You'd be lucky to be the kind's personal whench! Now buy our products, my smeed cup is nearing empty!
Mike @ Dec 22nd 2007 7:23PM
I just want someone to win soon so I can go buy HD movies
h4ldol @ Dec 22nd 2007 7:36PM
Don't wait, blu-ray has already won the format "war." Enjoy all the 1080p/24 blu-ray goodness NOW for God's sakes!
Jody @ Dec 22nd 2007 8:18PM
Yes enjoy it now, before it doesn't exist anymore. Time for Blu-Ray to wither on the vine like beta, minidisc, sacd, divx..........
Truth Teller @ Dec 22nd 2007 7:38PM
LMAO
Maybe they ought to have waited for Q4 of 2007 to be over before talking such cr@p.
I see HD DVD's Harry Potter outsold the Blu-ray version (when all HD DVD really needed was another lame & laughable Blu-ray 'win').
Blu-ray will not be winning anything but the PS3 market
(but it would be hard even for them to lose that one!)
lol
Nfinity @ Dec 22nd 2007 7:46PM
Can you PLEASE stop linking to BDA paid shill articles! Hollywood in Hi-Def and Scott Hettrick are BDA sponsored and most likely any prediction coming from these sources are absolutely laughable.
HD DVD is being picked up by mainstream consumers, it costs $100-$200, movies give more value with SD DVD version as well in addition to features, intearctivity and web enabled content. Individual HD DVD titles are outselling Blu-Ray versions and yet SOMEHOW Blu-Ray might win.. GIVE ME A BREAK!
Once HD DVD passes few 2-3 million in sales.. sites like HollywoodInHidef.com will shut down as many other FUD-spreading sites created by BDA's disguisting PR tactics.
It's a shame that all these shills are somehow not held accountable for making people buy incomplete players and scamming people into something they would have to upgrade/re-purchase later.. I guess they are no different than those greasy car salesmen.
nin @ Dec 22nd 2007 9:20PM
"Individual HD DVD titles are outselling Blu-Ray versions"
I'd like to see this mythical list. I have a list or two
Dual format titles that have sold more on HD-DVD
Ant Bully, Planet Earth, We Are Marshall, MI:III
Dual format titles that have sold more on Blu-ray
The Lake House, Nacho Libre, Superman Returns, World Trade Center, Lady in the Water, The Wicker Man, The Departed, Babel, Happy Feet, Dreamgirls, The Fountain ,Flags of Our Fathers, Letters from Iwo Jima, Norbit, Black Snake Moan, The Host, 300, Shooter, Imax Blue Planet, Disturbia, TMNT, The Reaping, License to Wed, Ocean's 13
Of all those, there are 12 Blu-rays discontinued by Paramount. HD-DVD is only beating Blu-ray on 2 of them. All those numbers are backed by Home Media Magazine and/or Nielsen Videoscan. So where is your list?
Nfinity @ Dec 23rd 2007 1:49AM
You forgot Harry Potter and quite possibly Blade Runner not to mention very impressive numbers of sold exclusive titles like Transfomers, Bourne when compared to some exclusive Blu-Ray titles etc.
Of course that some titles will sell better on Blu-Ray, this is not the point here. We are talking about the fact that with MASSIVE numbers Blu-Ray has over HD DVD in hardware through PS3, we are seeing VERY IMPRESSIVE sales numbers from HD DVD and this is just the start. HD DVD is going mainstream VERY FAST now. The price is right, people are buying players in strides. This is what everyone even Warner has been talking about. PS3 is not going to hold, it is not a mainstream product, it's too expensive and the software sales are competing with gaming industry. It's pretty a much a bad thing overall. And I don't want to buy a Playstation console for every room, maybe you will, but any normal person won't. I also don't want to pay $300+ or $500+ for Profile 1.0 or Profile 1.1 standalones either. There you go. Simple. HD DVD has every singe thing NAILED.
By advantage that BDA has been continuosly hyping up (the number of BLu-Ray players including PS3) HD DVD should not have ANY titles that sell better not a few, NONE. Of course, we are seeing better and better sales on individual titles for HD DVD too. It's all quite normal, people who are buying players are slowly but surely buying new titles.
I've decided not to get in discussions with people anymore about this as it is hopeless. It's like a large number of people just refuses to look at logic, facts and history.
All I'm going to tell you is watch and please don't be one of the freaks to go and spill conspiracy theories when Warner finally goes HD DVD. For all the reasons we have been talking about news after news, their decision to go with HD DVD will be purely business and logic based. I'm telling you now so you don't get surprised. They will go HD DVD and when that happens the format war is over. Over 70% of market share goes to HD DVD, cheapest full featured players and cheap mass production capabilities for replicators will end it pretty quickly. Disney won't be too long after Warner when it happens. And you'll be left with Fox and Sony on Blu-Ray side and that's only because Fox has strong business ties with Sony over MGM catalog. Once they realize that Blu-Ray is a dead duck in the water they'll be switching over too.
Feel free to watch and please don't say in a few months that you didn't know or how you are shocked with their decision. k?
nin @ Dec 23rd 2007 3:54AM
Well let's see here.
"You forgot Harry Potter and quite possibly Blade Runner not to mention very impressive numbers of sold exclusive titles like Transformers, Bourne when compared to some exclusive Blu-Ray titles etc."
I have yet to see a conclusive report (i.e. not a statement made by the head of the HD-DVD Group) saying HP sold more on HD-DVD. Bourne Ultimatum has been estimated at an 'impressive' 60,000 copies, it did $227,471,070 box office. Superbad, a comedy, did $121,463,226 box office and sold 60,000 the week before. Do you not see this discrepancy? Transformers (Box office = $319,071,806) sold a little under 50,000 copies less than Pirates 3 (Box office = $309,420,425).
"Of course that some titles will sell better on Blu-Ray, this is not the point here."
You stated up that HD-DVD was selling better, I countered with evidence. But gotahead and change the subject.
"We are talking about the fact that with MASSIVE numbers Blu-Ray has over HD DVD in hardware through PS3, we are seeing VERY IMPRESSIVE sales numbers from HD DVD and this is just the start. HD DVD is going mainstream VERY FAST now."
Yes, the PS3, blah blah blah attach rates, blah blah blah. I'm going to guess that if I had the time to go through all our old posts I would find something to the effect of, "Oh, 90000 HD DVD players sold in one weekend, you Blu-boys better watch out, here comes the storm." And when that didn't happen I'm going to guess you said "Well it's coming...maybe everyone bought those as xmas presents, so the storm starts next year!"
"This is what everyone even Warner has been talking about."
And you know this how? Are you a CEO who likes to comment on engadget?
"PS3 is not going to hold, it is not a mainstream product, it's too expensive and the software sales are competing with gaming industry."
1.5 million sold in November. 10 year life cycle is the aim.
"And I don't want to buy a Playstation console for every room, maybe you will, but any normal person won't."
The point is for the PS3 to sustain Blu-ray until SA players are able to compete with HD-DVD SA players, which will slowly happen.
"HD DVD should not have ANY titles that sell better not a few, NONE."
There is a thing called demographics, you should read up on it.
"we are seeing better and better sales on individual titles for HD DVD too."
Once again you state individual titles on Hd-dvd are outselling their Blu-ray counterparts, unless you mean HD-DVD versions are selling better than the versions that aren't getting releases on Blu-ray. So were you going to provide proof or just keep spewing crap?
"I've decided not to get in discussions with people anymore about this as it is hopeless. It's like a large number of people just refuses to look at logic, facts and history."
And yet you feel the need to respond to me, albeit without any FACTS. I do agree people are refusing to look at logic, FACTS and history, one of which is not me but you.
"Over 70% of market share goes to HD DVD, cheapest full featured players and cheap mass production capabilities for replicators will end it pretty quickly."
Once again a source? I will give you cheaper players, not completely full featured. $256.99 is the cheapest hd-dvd player that is 1080p. Samsung just went to 299.99. The numbers I've seen put pressing costs differences in pennies. When will it end quickly, I hear HD-DVD has been out longer.
"Disney won't be too long after Warner when it happens."
'Blu-ray will inevitably prevail because Blu-ray delivers what consumers want: True High Definition picture without compromise, the best sound quality, the best choice in content, the most in special features, and of course the most disc storage capacity. No tradeoffs. No compromises,' commented Chapek, who is worldwide president of Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment.
Let me give you some numbers,
Europe, 73% were in the Blu-ray Disc format and 27% were HD DVD,
Japan, 95% Blu-ray
Australia, 90% Blu-ray
Can you tell me what percent of China HD-DVD has? Oooo China has picked CH-DVD, I'd like to to explain to me the details of said pick, and what it entails, is China going to give every citizen a free player or something?
America is only place with a battle. Most HD-DVDers I've read think Warner going HD-DVD exclusive will only stalemate the war. My questions is why have you been spouting for the past 8 months with reckless abandon? With a hardware and software share that is being outpaced, I don't see why HD-DVDers have so much to say.
DrXym @ Dec 23rd 2007 4:34AM
nin, "The point is for the PS3 to sustain Blu-ray until SA players are able to compete with HD-DVD SA players, which will slowly happen.".
I'd say it's begun to happen. Sony and Samsung are already selling sub-$300 players and Sharp & Philips aren't far behind. Give it another 6 months and there will probably 10 or more sub-$300 players to choose from. Meanwhile the HD DVD camp will be just Toshiba and a handful of Chinese clones.
At that point all of the subsidizing by Toshiba so far will have been for nothing because the market will have caught up with them.
I think there is no way HD DVD can win on hardware. They might win if they could pull off some coup / bribe of a studio such as WB. But if WB goes the other way or stays neutral I expect we'll be looking at sales which at 5:1 this time next year.
hothotdisco @ Dec 23rd 2007 8:20PM
You are a fool Nfinity. You can get a blu-ray player for 270 dollars now at Amazon and the prices are only going to go further down from there. There really is no incentive to buy HD-DVD once that happens. Both formats have the same video quality. Blu-ray has more studio support. Stand-alone players are getting cheaper. Basically, HD-DVD has no advantages anymore.
Region Free HD @ Dec 22nd 2007 7:50PM
OK, I'm going out on a limb here guys: my prediction for 2008?
SD DVD FTW!
Yeah, I know it'll be a real squeaker what with only >70% of U.S. homes NOT having HDTVs. Still, I just have this feeling it's gonna happen.
kcmurphy88 @ Dec 22nd 2007 8:12PM
"SD DVD FTW!" I remember folks claiming that vinyl would be around forever, too.
But seriously, these blu-ray guys are like a stopped clock. It always says the same thing every time. But unlike a stopped clock, they haven't been right yet.
Ryan @ Dec 22nd 2007 10:16PM
Well, a stopped clock is right twice a day. :)
I think it is awesome that Harry Potter is claimed to be winning red vs blu. Even more amazing when you consider there are 10 times the amount of players on blu.
mike @ Dec 23rd 2007 2:20AM
unless the clock reads out in 24 hour time, then its only right once a day. Or if the clock jamed/went into reset mode showing 88:88 then it would never be right :)
kcmurphy88 @ Dec 23rd 2007 2:28PM
As I said originally: "But unlike a stopped clock, they haven't been right yet."
Jason @ Dec 22nd 2007 8:12PM
Funny how Engadget runs this shill article and refuses to run the latest Video Business article that indicates that HD DVD is doing very well indeed with Bourne Ultimatum doing FAR better than Spidey 3 did in its first week and Harry Potter actually outselling BD across all retail outlets. It's ok guys, if BD doesn't dominate you can always use that $500 PS3 to play some quality video games.... well, maybe not.
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6515097.html
Treefingers @ Dec 23rd 2007 4:21AM
Spiderman 3 is a stupid comic. With a stupid story. Untalented actors. Of course an acclaimed book series with quality actors outsold spiderman. Some people just hate spiderman, how can you hate the Bourne series? Obviously its gonna sell better, just like how Transformers sold better. Good movies sell well. Period. Youve seen that with both sides. Now if some blockbusters (not blockfloppers) came out BD...
JimC @ Dec 23rd 2007 7:39PM
That's because the videobusiness article is full of it. The day the article was released, Blu-ray was handely outpacing HDDVD sales of HP OOP. The initial sales had HDDVD higher than Bluray, but not by much, but at the same time the more expensive gift set with all 5 movies, blu-ray comfortably outpaced HDDVD and stayed there whereas the single release, after the intial push, blu-ray took the lead and then leveled off whereas at the same time, HDDVD sales tanked and stayed there, this is the sustaining sales rate of blu-ray versus the initial push sales....
check it out yourself....http://charts.highdefdigest.com/history.aspx
andyj @ Dec 22nd 2007 8:14PM
One can't help notice that there have been many articles predicting Blu-ray as the winner in '08 ... and none doing the same for HD DVD :/
misterhearn @ Dec 22nd 2007 9:13PM
Nothing like Blu Ray PR propaganda! Yeah BR FTW! Are you kidding? The only audience BR has secured is the Playstation audience and none other. HD DVD has scratched into everyday consumers whom decided to go hi def.
Look at the numbers for BR stand alone players compared to the PS3, the PS3 makes up over 97% of the BR market share. Its true that the Xbox 360's HD DVD add on makes up a good portion of sales for the HD DVD camp but unlike its competition its a 100% dedicated player which almost makes it a stand alone player.
Look at big neutral titles like Harry Potter and Planet Earth where HD DVD has outsold and outpaced the socalled preferred blu ray.
I could easily show my HD DVD fanboy colors and say something fanboyish like " Warner messed up and put HD DVDs in the BR cases because they're planning on backing HD DVD only after CES!" but that sounds like something a blu ray fanboy would say.
Blu Ray winning is the biggest bluff since Bush claimed he was freeing IRAQ. Constant BOGOs, software giveaways are nothing more than a smokescreen. With the exception of Toshiba laptops with built in HD DVD drives pretty much every HD DVD player purchased is a dedicated player, so if you subtract those laptops sold you'll get an idea of what HD DVD's dedicated market share is. If you subtract the PS3, Sony brand laptops with BR drives built in, you'll get an idea of what Blu Ray's dedicated market share is. Doesnt anybody notice that? Blu Ray is the preferred alright, preferred by Playstation 3 owners
HD DVD will rally in 08
nin @ Dec 22nd 2007 9:38PM
More FUD, way to pick one which is basically negligible, and one that has no offical numbers yet.
Planet Earth has sold .95:1.0 for HD-DVD
I've heard HP has sold 1.2:1 in favor of blu-ray AND that Hd-dvd outsold 1:.90, so I'm gonna wait until the offical numbers are out. Those are pretty even for those.
I've also heard blu-ray won the week 61:39, which is sad that one of HD-DVDs biggest exclusive releases couldn't beat Blu-ray exclusive Simpsons, T3 and Underdog.
Music Pirate @ Dec 22nd 2007 10:00PM
Yet another case of a dumb analyst spreading his/her FUD about bluray, and wait that is not all, who wants to bet they are being paid-for by who else? Sony! Yup thats right kids, they are most likely being paid for by the BDA to spread this nonsense and who else picks up on this story? EngadgetHD, they just love to keep posting this nonsense.
Xyzzy @ Dec 22nd 2007 9:57PM
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6515097.html
Music Pirate @ Dec 22nd 2007 10:02PM
Yup! You don't see EngadgetHD reporting on that, I wonder why? They might make some people mad. ;) ;) ;)
nin @ Dec 22nd 2007 10:24PM
Bourne trilogy was Amazon only, which will be in the Nielson Videoscan.
Strange they only mention HP OOTP.
Amazon sale rankings are unreliable, if you don't know why you should be commenting on this format war.
Spider-man 3 sold 130,000 total first week, funny they only mention the standalone.
Still wondering how blu-ray has a 61:39 win week with these amazing sales of HP and Bourne.
Nfinity @ Dec 23rd 2007 4:53AM
nin.. please stop talking stupidity.. what the hell are you talking about.. Spiderman 3 TANKED!!! TANKED!!
And you spew garbage like Amazon doesn't count.. why is that? Because everything they sell is absolutely annihilating Blu-Ray.. HD DVD players top 3 spots almost all the time, HD DVD titles almost always more sold then Blu-Ray titles..
Please.. wake up and smell the coffee.. you picked the wrong format to support.. next UMD that will tank like a mofo next year.. HD DVD is expanding everywhere.. $99 HD DVD players at FutureShop in Canada, free HD DVD players with HDTVs in Australia through their largest retailer, movies selling like cakes, new hit movies coming out.. The Kingdom is absolutely fantastic, Bourne, Harry Potter selling better, Walmart giving their support to HD DVD more and more (just look at the commercials)..
The only thing that is left is Warner's death blow..and the future WILL BE Blu (as in sad) for Blow-Ray. While you are buying your 2nd or 3rd playstation for your rooms, I'll have every room and bathroom in my house equipped with awesome HD DVD players for the price of your 1 PS3. Get it?
So far, mainstream consumers have not been involved, next year is year of mass adoptation.. and there's only one logical format.. the next generation DVD, called, well quite simply and logically HD DVD. Get on board before you spend too much money on Blu garbage that will be obsolete in a few months.
Treefingers @ Dec 23rd 2007 7:11AM
Wow Nfinity, you actually used to make intelligent comments bringing succinct well thought sentences. and not youve come to fanboyism... "Blow-ray" really, how immature. Yes spiderman tanked, why? cause it was a sh***y movie from a **itt* comic book series, with shitty actors. I didnt even rent Spiderman 3 the movie looked so bad. Bourne Ultimatum i saw in theatres, it was good, good movies get purchased when the go on DVD (HD DVD/Blu-ray).
But seriously though, you are basing which format will win on UMD? and that the DVD forum approves HD DVD? Youve got to be kidding me.
Let me explain something to you, and all the other people looking to get smart about their HD Media purchases.
1. Both HD DVD and Blu-ray look practically identical when encoded well.
2. HD DVD and Blu-ray can be leaps and bounds better than DVD. But the worst HD DVD/Blu-ray movie will look just as good, if not a little better, than the best of the best DVDs.
3. Number 1 most important thing when becoming an early adopter is more content and the price of the content.
3a. HD DVD and Blu-ray have about the same amount of movies out right now (with imports for HD DVD since all are region free)
3b. HD DVD players are cheaper, but all the sub-200$ players do not support 1080p (all LCDs DLPs and Plasmas are progressive so it ultimately doesnt make a huge difference but a difference nonetheless)
3c. Blu-ray offers a wider variety of player manufactures which will eventually (in 2008) lead to more hardware competition which will drive the prices down.
3d. Its all about the movies you want. If all the studios that have all the movies you want support Blu-ray get Blu-ray if the studios support HD DVD get HD DVD if you cant decide get a combo player or a cheap SA HD DVD player and a PS3.
4. Each format is decided by its studio support, BD has more studios and manufacturers on board than any other media format ever started with.
5.If you think about it HD DVD is kind of the half-step into HD Movies. They didnt change much so the name is still DVD (which confuses old consumers into thinking its a HiDefDVD). Blu-ray is a new name for new technology. New manufacturing plants, modified old plants. This all goes for change and better technology.
For Blu-ray is all about more. More studios (and bigger studios) support Blu-ray. More manufacturers support Blu-ray. More retail locations support Blu-ray (try finding HD DVD in Australia). More people support Blu-ray.
For HD DVD all i see is less. Less movies sold, less players sold, less studios supporting, less people making hardware, ultimately less people buying HD DVD.
If Warner goes Blu the "war" is over in the US. If Warner stays neutral who knows what'll happen. If Warner goes red the war will continue till no one wants either format. And if that happens Microsoft wins, the people who have been pushing for HD downloads for several years now.
I know I want to buy physical copies and download logical copies of films. So i want one side to win.
Anyways heres a list of the pros and cons of each format so you can decide for yourself: http://wichrowreview.com/BDvsHDDVD.html
Greg @ Dec 22nd 2007 10:22PM
Just to put back some info amoung the FUD, I am surprised to see so many HD DVD fans crying "BDA sponsored Firm!" here, when they accepted the study saying that most HDTV users were likely to go HD DVD than Blu Ray without a glance?
Thing is, now Nfinity spout this kind of argument without proof, when on the other thand there -is- proof that TDG (research firm that outted the "news") was hired in the past (and probably still is) by Toshiba to show pro - HD DVD numbers
http://www.tdgresearch.com/TDG_Opinion_High_Def_DVD_Format_War.htm
I am not saying that Understanding & Solutions here hasn't been paid to come up with a Blu Ray favorable angle (but, until proof of the countrary, we can't say they were either), but let's call a Cat a Cat -EVERY- time then, shall we?
Treefingers @ Dec 23rd 2007 4:33AM
Fact #2: Blu-ray has a 5-to-1 advantage over HD DVD in terms of the number of units in use. However, of the 1.5 million Blu-ray players in use today, 1.4 million are PS3s; only 100,000 are true stand-alone non-gaming DVD players. In other words, those arguing that the format war is over are basing their opinion on the early pull of a handful of extreme hard-core gamers that were willing to lay down $500-$700 on a new game console. The landscape will look very different when $200-$300 stand-alone high-def DVD players become the norm.
Is it just me or is it odd that many people do buy the PS3 as their on BD player, specifically for BD only, not for games at all, and then companies, writers, whoever discount the numbers of PS3 sold saying they are only for hardcore gamers. The PS3 is the greatest deal of a player. Simple as that, if you want the cheapest player at #2 in quality buy a PS3.
Heres what the PS3 can (and cannot do): http://www.edepot.com/playstation3.html
Again, when i was working retail, 30-40 year old people would come into the store and instead of walking out with a standalone BD player they walked out with a PS3.
andyj @ Dec 22nd 2007 10:27PM
Honestly I don't know how anyone can argue with the stats that have Blu-ray outselling HD DVD for all of 2007. I mean that is quite substantial.
In the small races, Blu-ray seems to be generally always winning ... as in the bigger races.
I think then it's reasonable to believe that they will win this war ... that's why articles are being written stating just that.
My 2 cents.
JBDragon @ Dec 22nd 2007 10:28PM
You read the Comments from the Video Business Article? It's all Blu-Ray Psycho fanboys. They are really going nuts on that one! A factual Article unlike those sponsored by Blu-Ray! I scanned though a page of comments and had to leave. I thought the Blu-Ray forums were scary, but WOW.
JBDragon @ Dec 22nd 2007 10:35PM
Sure, it looks like Blu-Ray has been been winning. But really has it? The number of Blu-Ray to HD DVD players at 5:1 or whatever, and yet sales are lucky to get 2:1! That's with the BOGO sales that are going on for Blu-Ray almost weekly. They can't keep giving movies away like this. Sure it looks good now, but if you don't have the players out there and just keep giving away the software, eventually with HD DVD getting cheap hardware out there, Blu-Ray is going to have to have a buy one get 2 free to keep the numbers up. The PS3 is only going to get Blu-Ray so far.
Jeebus @ Dec 26th 2007 1:22PM
The latest Nielsen numbers show 3:1 ratio. The gap is growing.
Greg @ Dec 22nd 2007 10:41PM
Oh, also, the reason the VB article isn't mentionned around too much, is because it is full of BS. So much so that it gives a good chuckle to most people that read it.
Spiderman3 sold 30k units in its first week?
http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/11/08/spider-man-3-doesnt-break-any-records-on-blu-ray-its-first-week/
135k unit, which includes both the trilogy set, and the individual SM3 SKU (minus all the skus bundled with the 40gb PS3 btw).
Now if you think they have only sold 30k units of SM3, but 105k trilogy sets, I have a nice bridge to sell you in Spain :)
Oh, the separate number would be known only by Sony and retailers btw, I doubt very much that a Universal rep would have that info.
I also very much doubt that a Universal rep would already have the HP ratios for both formats (wich according to insiders, including Dave Vaughn from AVS, are actually more in favor to BR), but hey, it's going to be published by the media and it looks positive for HD DVD, why bother?
The thing is, both HP5 and Bourne were disapointments in sales (why do you think they added HD DVD to the DVD sales to out a 5.4 million DVD number sale for Bourne?), and for both formats.
Blu Ray is more consistent in sales though, throughout its top 25 and beyond, which explains why, even if HD DVD has a strong title oppposed to little more than a bogo (there was ALSO a HD DVD BOGO last week btw), Blu Ray still wins, and won big in comparison this time, at 61:39.
Last, in response to the one who said that neutral titles perform better on HD DVD, this is a smoke screen formed by PE, and PE only.
HP is selling more on BR, Blade Runner is selling more, 300 sold TONS more.
But until we have definitive numbers, this is little more than talk about rumors, so we'll see what happens (again, if -anything at all- happens) with Warner.
Mike @ Dec 23rd 2007 1:21AM
Well video buiness subscribs to the neilson video scan...so their article is more believe able then the 61 39 stat that has been tossed out without a link to a credible source.
135k is what sony reported..just like paramount reported 190k on transformers.
andyj @ Dec 23rd 2007 12:02AM
Again, I can't really understand people who complain about BOGO sales. For one, they go one for both sides - also, they end up saving us money.
Like I've said before, if a bi-product of this war is that we get to have more of what we want for less money then you should be happy for at least that.
And if people are predicting that Blu-ray will win more and more as they see Blu-ray continue to outsell HD DVD more and more then maybe that means something.
I see a lot of complex explanations for why this is happening or why that is happening ... but a lot of people simply don't care about that stuff ... they care about what's most popular ... and what can get them what they want.
If more people have Blu-ray and more people are buying Blu-ray then I think it's reasonable to assume that Blu-ray will win if this trend continues.
Treefingers @ Dec 23rd 2007 4:43AM
I forget where i heard this, and i guess i may be misinformed, is that BOGO sales and giveaways are not calculated into some sales charts. Skewing data, the more you give away the movie media is out there but the less sales it looks like you have. So maybe BD owners take advantage of all the BOGOs and free movie deals.