Poll: What impact could Warner have?
by Ben Drawbaugh 
posted Dec 17th 2007 at 3:37PM
The rumors have been flying for a few months now about Warner changing their strategy in the format war. While some think Warner will choose red because of its superior interactive capabilities others believe Warner will go blu because of its superior Nielsen VideoScan results during 2007. Regardless of which way they go -- assuming Waner's recent statement is a lie -- we wonder if it'll be enough to end this war once and for all.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Spiza @ Dec 17th 2007 3:42PM
Wow, one vote for everthing right now. I think if Warner does go blu, its over. I think everyone can agree. If Warner goes red, then I think both formats will survive with Red being the favorite in the end with probably a 60-40 to 65-35 split, and Fox will once again release a bunch of Blu-Ray titles like it did when Paramount caved.
chad @ Dec 17th 2007 3:46PM
I hope the rumors aren't true, but right now it looks like Warner might go blu for the win. If Warner does go this route, I'm not sure HD DVD has enough studio support to continue the fight.
The format war is definitely responsible for falling prices and frequent sales. If this war ends we can kiss the spoils goodbye. I want my cheap players and by-weekly BOGO's!
ryan @ Dec 17th 2007 3:51PM
In before there are 100 posts. I can see a lopsided poll as well thanks to bd.com. Anyway, neither will cave in the next 12 months if Warner goes either way. That's my opinion.
Greg @ Dec 17th 2007 3:54PM
The assumption that a dual format is necessary for getting cheap stuff is quite wrong.
DVDs never had a real competition to begin with (Laserdics never took off due to very high price and unability to record), and lok. you have DVD players at $24.50 (saw at Fry's two days aggo) and dsics as low as $5.99 or $9.99 at your local supermarket.
What -is- a major pain is to have the studios split in two groups.
It is more than time for one format, and prices will logically continue to drop over time.
chad @ Dec 17th 2007 4:14PM
Do you remember how much DVD players cost when the format was new? They weren't cheap. The only reason you can get those types of prices now is because Chinese manufacturers infiltrated the market at the low end. They made players cheaper than the name brand companies and thus forced lower prices.
Without this war, I assure you that nobody would be purchasing $100 HD DVD or
chad @ Dec 17th 2007 4:16PM
Do you remember how much DVD players cost when the format was new? They weren't cheap. The only reason you can get those types of prices now is because Chinese manufacturers infiltrated the market at the low end. They made players cheaper than the name brand companies and thus forced lower prices.
Without this war, I assure you that nobody would be purchasing $100 HD DVD or $300 Blu-ray players. There would not be Blu-ray BOGO's every time a major HD DVD title is released and you would not get a whole basket full of movies with every hardware purchase.
Instead of arguing that the war doesn't bring us lower prices, you should be arguing that we're not actually saving any money because now we have to support two formats. However, I think that's why all new HDTVs have two or more HDMI inputs.
Chaz @ Dec 17th 2007 4:06PM
Warner's leaning Red. They hold some HD-DVD patents, and despite there being 3 times as many blu-ray players out there (mostly in the form of PS3's); none of the blu version's of WB's movies could decisively outsell their HD-DVD counterparts. With the amount of blu players out there compared to HD-DVD, they should easily get to 2:1, but they never even came close. Attachment rates are very important in this early stage of the "format war," as it's our only indicator as to how strong a particular format is.
Remember, in the end the PS2 only accounted for a teeny tiny 2% of DVD players when DVD became widely accepted. PS3 isn't selling nearly as well, so without complete profile players that are affordable (200 and below), they kind of put all of their eggs in one basket.
Warner's been waiting for the right time to go HD-DVD exclusive, but simply didn't want to miss out on easy profit from the PS3 surge in '07. Now with more than a million *dedicated* HD-DVD players in consumer's hands, now's just about the right time.
HD-DVD held up 40:60 in software sales, despite having half as many exclusive studios, and 1/3 as many players in consumers hands. (although they do have more *dedicated* players in homes). With high-def media only taking up about 3-4% of movie sales, and with the attachement rate for HD-DVD, just seems like they cant lose in the long haul.
This is just my analysis, but I'd love to be the first one to say it, and be right!
HD Tom @ Dec 17th 2007 4:12PM
I agree, and am hopeful that WB sees this and goes this way. I could just as easily, though, see them go Blu and figure that will settle it w/in a year as well. No matter what, they hold a lot of power here. I think wherever they go, they will determine the winner.
You also have to figure the market will see cheaper HD-DVD players more often in the short term than BluRay, w/ the Venturer thing coming. It would seem to make sense that WB would like to capitalize on what should be a flood of these players to the market.
Stay tuned!!
deftechpioelite @ Dec 17th 2007 5:55PM
Quote: "Warner's leaning Red. They hold some HD-DVD patents, and despite there being 3 times as many blu-ray players out there (mostly in the form of PS3's); none of the blu version's of WB's movies could decisively outsell their HD-DVD counterparts. With the amount of blu players out there compared to HD-DVD, they should easily get to 2:1, but they never even came close. Attachment rates are very important in this early stage of the "format war," as it's our only indicator as to how strong a particular format is.
Remember, in the end the PS2 only accounted for a teeny tiny 2% of DVD players when DVD became widely accepted. PS3 isn't selling nearly as well, so without complete profile players that are affordable (200 and below), they kind of put all of their eggs in one basket.
Warner's been waiting for the right time to go HD-DVD exclusive, but simply didn't want to miss out on easy profit from the PS3 surge in '07. Now with more than a million *dedicated* HD-DVD players in consumer's hands, now's just about the right time. " End Quote.
Wow, you are wrong on a couple counts there brrrroseph. All major WB Blu-ray releases have outsold their HDDVD counterpart, do I even need to bring up 300?( http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/848 ) Or The Departed? Seriously, what kind of FUD are you spreading? Oh, and seriously, more than one million dedicated players? There are articles EVERYWHERE(here is one: http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Xbox_360/Microsoft/Industry_Trends/NPD:_XBox_360_HD_DVD_Player_Sales_Hit_269K/1266 and another: http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/1208 ) saying HDDVD players have finally topped 750K INCLUDING XBEOX add ons. Any more FUD you want to spew?
seanc @ Dec 17th 2007 9:55PM
where does your 40:60 ratio come from? if we're being that loose with the numbers then i suppose blu ray has a 70-30 ratio right?
did you just use 'dedicated' and 'attach rate' to describe hd-dvd? choose one or the other. hd-dvd either has more dedicated players or it has a higher attach rate per dedicated player, but it can't have both.
BBG @ Dec 17th 2007 4:03PM
Another poll ... another statistic ... another Blu-ray win ...
... it's great to be Blu :)
TrentD @ Dec 17th 2007 4:35PM
Another ballot box stuffed by Blu-ray.com...if you're not cheating, you're not trying, right?
andy @ Dec 17th 2007 4:04PM
Ben Drawbaugh: Pot Stirring Master
coming soon to a forum near you.
The Fuzz 53 @ Dec 17th 2007 4:04PM
HD-DVD has "The Big Lebowski"
How could it possible lose?
jagowar @ Dec 17th 2007 4:11PM
you need to add an option... to the effect of whichever way it goes is game over for the other side.
i really dont know which way they are going to go (if at all) but i think whoever they choose will win.
TrentD @ Dec 17th 2007 4:41PM
I think Warner going Blu would effectively end the war. However, Warner going Red would put Blu-ray in a very difficult to defend postion, and one more little push would send them over the edge.
Warner has so many movies out that taking its support from either side would cause a huge swing in the number of available titles, making one side look far better to the consumer simply interested in getting the most movies.
BBG @ Dec 17th 2007 4:11PM
LOL - Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD in all of the Harry Potter movies, Blu-ray outsold HD DVD by A LOT with 300 ... Blu-ray even won Hd Film of the year with their 300 Blu-ray.
Warner Bros. can simply make more money by going Blu, and that's why they will be making an announcement early next year.
BTW, Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD by much more then 2:1 outside of the US ... so this means even more profits for Warner Bros. when they go Blu-ray exclusive.
It's simple really, Blu-ray is a superior format with superior sales.
The future is Blu :)
TrentD @ Dec 17th 2007 4:44PM
They really should be paying you! Sony, give this man or woman a raise!
Oh, what, you're just an unpaid fanboy?
DrXym @ Dec 17th 2007 5:29PM
The problem here is that Time Warner could easily have a big fat cheque waved under their noses. It's already happened to a few other studios who sided with the lame duck because MS gave them a lot of money (or concessions) to do it.
Even so I hope they do the right thing and drop HD DVD and end this farce. I hear people whine Blu Ray is Sony only but a look at the members of the BDA and the overwhelming backing by industry shows this is total BS. It's Toshiba & Microsoft that are touting a proprietary format and hopefully a Blu only WB would finally stop this war.
HD Tom @ Dec 17th 2007 4:15PM
Dear Engadget guys:
Are you just trying to unleash back-and-fourth, mindless fanboy (both sides) banter w/ this poll?
You might set a record for comments on this one.
TrentD @ Dec 17th 2007 4:44PM
No, they're driving site traffic, meaning more ad revenues. Very smart, Engadget, my Marketing Degree approves!
h0mi @ Dec 17th 2007 4:16PM
DVD players were still $200 or more until the Apex players hit the scene back in 2000. This was 3 years after it's initial release, and players hit the sub $100 mark by 2002. The fact that 10 years later, players are $30 a piece doesn't tell us much about how quickly prices have dropped, but HDM is certainly dropping in price much faster than DVD did.
Chris @ Dec 17th 2007 4:21PM
Warner goes blu = war over
Warner does nothing = market stays the same
Warner goes red = studios forced to release quality catalog titles to compete against each other
I don't care who wins, I just want Star Wars, LOTR and Pixar movies out ASAP and will get whatever player will play those.
PLV @ Dec 17th 2007 4:34PM
Get DirecTV and add the HD Movie Pack. Record them, enjoy them in glorious (semi-) HD, and play dead while the battle rages on...when the ashes settle, you can scoop up those discs.
Sufs @ Dec 17th 2007 4:23PM
I think they will back HD DVD exclusively by the end of 2008 when sales of HD DVD players begin increasing software sales significantly.
That said I don't think they will have any impact at that point. This format war is really not going to end on the count of Warner bros regardless of what side they choose. If they go HD DVD we will have a 50/50 split in major studio support. If they go blue studio support is no worse for HD DVD then it was when this war started. So really the warner decision is of no benefit to each side we might as well have them release on both.
I only feel sorry for the early adopter suckers (myself included) who still think that any of these formats will gain mass adoption, or better yet the dual format owners (myself included again)who think they are safe either way. This format war has dropped prices so much that neither studios nor hardware manufacturers are making enough profit to warrant their continued dedication. I think the consumers, studios and CE manufacturers are all losers playing right into Toshiba and Sony's hand, if you think about it they will make all their money from licensing fees passed down to the above group.
As much as I ENJOY watching and listening to HD content and I REALLY do the joy is somewhat killed when the notion that it will all be obsolete in a couple of years is reflected upon.
ryan @ Dec 17th 2007 4:26PM
BBG,
I am amazed you already know Harry Potter is selling better on blu-ray. Did someone at blu-ray.com tell you that was the case? Wait until David Vaughn leaks the info on Wednesday or the best bet is to wait until Friday until you state facts, otherwise you're just spreading misinformation.
One would assume and hope HP is selling betting on Blu since you have almost 7 million players in the wild.
HD Tom @ Dec 17th 2007 4:31PM
@Sufs
"That said I don't think they will have any impact at that point. This format war is really not going to end on the count of Warner bros regardless of what side they choose. If they go HD DVD we will have a 50/50 split in major studio support. If they go blue studio support is no worse for HD DVD then it was when this war started. So really the warner decision is of no benefit to each side we might as well have them release on both."
While this is technically true, I think Warner going one way or the other kills the one they don't choose clearly because of momentum. When the "war" first started, studios went the way they thought would win at that time. But now? If it's 50/50 studio wise, that is clearly a sign that HD-DVD is beginning to take over, and it'll steer all the more consumers toward the cheap players out now.
Now, if they go Blu, and it's back to the way it started, its clearly a defeat for HD-DVD and shows momentum the other way.
A warner decision either way would have a psychological affect on the market that will shift it the way they go. I have a cheap HD-DVD player, but if Warner goes Blu, I'll be quickly sending it off to HD-upconvert duty after I p/u a BD player.
TrentD @ Dec 17th 2007 4:56PM
"Major studio support" is a misnomer. Is anyone going to argue that Fox's 45 movies and MGM's 13 movies compare at all to Warner's 94 for Blu-ray and 122 for HD DVD? Heck, little independent Weinstein has released nearly as many movies as MGM, but Blu-ray refuses to count them in this whole "whose on whose side" debate.
A "Studio" is only worth the movies they release. Warner is the number two most prolific studio for BOTH formats. Neither side can stand to lose them. If they went exclusive, the format that lost Warner would take the equivalent of a Muhammed Ali uppercut to the chin.
Blu-ray Releases (Major Studios)
Sony: 97
Warner: 94 (Blu-ray)
Buena Vista: 50
Fox: 45
Lionsgate: 32
MGM: 13
HD DVD Releases (Majors plus Weinstein)
Universal: 135
Warner: 122 (HD DVD)
Paramount/Dreamworks: 44
Weinstein: 11
Stats from blu-raystats.com and hddvdstats.com
zargon @ Dec 17th 2007 4:32PM
The losers over at the cesspool known as Blu-ray.com have caught wind of this pool, the results are now null and void...
http://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=27481&highlight=engadget
However, I do wish they would bring back the hit list, that was worth a laugh.
TrentD @ Dec 17th 2007 5:04PM
A sampling of quotes from Blu-ray.com:
"Red for the win is on top, WTF?"
"Well, look at the site it's on... Engadget, a very red-biased site. I voted anyways, Blu is on top."
"Engadget loves their HD DuD."
"It's a very pro HD DVD site."
Those guys are unbelievable - is there a Bluer color than Blu, because we need to get a clinical study started.
BT @ Dec 17th 2007 4:48PM
This is a stupid argument (excuse me, discussion...)
Warner cares about one thing, selling movies. I have a feeling they don't give a damn about either format, they just want this thing settled. People are holding out on buying into a format because they don't want theirs to be defunct a year from now. DVD sales are still declining, and they're losing money, as is every other studio on the planet. They are going to side with whichever format they believe has the best chance of ending this "war." The sooner the war ends, the faster mass consumer adoption, the quicker DVD is phased out, the quicker they start making more money.
Look at software sales, either YTD or SI, then decide which one you think they'll side with.
andy @ Dec 17th 2007 5:25PM
You make a good argument, but I'd like to point out that the war will not end with $400+ players because there will be no mass adoption.
Warner switching Blu would probably decide the war, but it wouldn't give them the sales spike you're counting on because of the lack of profile 2.0 players available at mass market pricing.
Going red would mean mass market players and availability, but the studio split would prolong the 2 formats problem.
Rock and a hard place with respect to short and long term cash prospects.
dennis.p @ Dec 18th 2007 2:22AM
Hello everybody,
Alot of you says, that Warner will go Blu, for the profit. (i'm pro blu-ray, but mostly just HD in the media i can get).
I find that a bit contradicting. IF it's profit they will keep the 'purple' stand, simply by the fact that they will sell more titles, simple as that.
However if they want to end the format war. going blu might be the thing to do, as it would give a big lead in studios, something that will not end the way from day to day, but defintely shorten the way considerably, and maybe move it to a place were it's a bit overdramatic to even call it a war...
Dennis
Denmark.
Ryan @ Dec 17th 2007 4:39PM
I really think Warner will go red if they go one way or the other. The fact red has more dedicated players in the market for one is a big deal. The fact red has a finalized spec that allows for teh advanced features Warner has been using all the time on HD DVD, not to mention internet access on every player. Warner is one of the studios that has taken advantage of the advanced features from teh start, including internet, so I can't see them going Blu exclusive when it would be a step back in interactivity.
Warner just seems to favor HD DVD at this time. I personally hope they go red, but we will see. Overall it isn't going to hurt me much as I am a purple supporter, but I favor HD DVD if I have the choice.
ryan @ Dec 17th 2007 4:41PM
This just in, this poll is very important!!!!
"Just voted. This is important everyone. Vote!"
It's amazing Blu is winning with how Red this site leans though /sarcasm
"Well, look at the site it's on... Engadget, a very red-biased site. I voted anyways, Blu is on top."
BBG @ Dec 17th 2007 4:42PM
LOL - Warner actually seems to favor Blu-ray ... as does the rest of the world.
Just look at the stats, and stop pretending they don't exist .. cause well ... they do exist ... and they all say Blu-ray is winning.
Blu-ray has the same "advanced" features (if not better) then HD DVD ... but ultimately, that's not the deciding factor ... money is ... and Warner Bros. can simply make the most money putting their films on Blu-ray ...
The statistics say it all ... people prefer Blu-ray.
The future is Blu :)
TrentD @ Dec 17th 2007 5:06PM
BBG said: "Blu-ray has the same "advanced" features (if not better) then HD DVD"
So there's currently ONE Profile 1.1 player out there, which STILL doesn't have any web-enabled special features, but yet Blu-ray still has the advantage?
Nfinity @ Dec 17th 2007 9:25PM
And could you point me to where it shows that Warner "actually supports Blu more" PLEASE!
You keep talking utter nonsense. So a company that has BETTER featured products (more stuff on their discs, HD and SD version of the movies on the same disc and priced the same as Blu-Ray), close to a 1/3 of their HD titles on HD DVD and is a key member of HD DVD Group and owner of quite a few patents with HD DVD technology is somehow leaning Blu?!
HAHAHAH.. you have to be consuming some HEAVY drugs my friend to see it that way.. But I guess it's not gonna be the first time in the Blu fairytale to see something that's not there...
TrentD @ Dec 18th 2007 8:45AM
If Warner prefers Blu-ray, then why have they released 122 HD DVDs, and only 94 Blu-rays?
Ben @ Dec 17th 2007 4:43PM
I can see the url referrals and in the past blu-ray.com hasn't sent as many over as you'd expect.
zargon @ Dec 17th 2007 4:50PM
URL referrals don't always mean anything, doesn't matter though, I just find it pathetic that cesspool does it all the time.
I also find it funny that they call this site Pro HD-DVD. That is unless they don't count all the idiot trolls that add no value or anything worth while to the threads, like BBG or h4lol.
ryan @ Dec 17th 2007 4:46PM
Ben, are the referrals more than from a red-centric site?
Ben @ Dec 17th 2007 4:51PM
Not sure, and it takes some time to get the stats in (not real time). I can tell you that the last format war poll we ran last month had 13k votes with 120 referrals from blu-ray.com.
But who knows if they didn't click through of if they deleted cookies till they were blu in the face.
Eddie @ Dec 17th 2007 5:27PM
Ben:
Do you get as much sick pleasure out of this as I think you do? I can just imagine you with a smile on your face, watching us all go crazy over these two formats. I mean, I know I would...
BBG @ Dec 17th 2007 4:55PM
It's funny how typical the HD DVD response to any statistic is ... completely indignant and unwilling to face the fact that people simply like Blu-ray better ... and that's why it's selling better ... and why all of the numbers for Blu-ray are better.
It's funny how this poll actually mirrors the US media sales pretty well ... with Blu-ray having a 2:1 or greater advantage over HD DVD.
The future is getting more Blu every day :)
Sean @ Dec 17th 2007 5:27PM
I doubt its the fact that people are in love with blu ray. Its because they have no other choice for a particular flick. With Warner, at least they get a choice. For the Departed, I actually chose the BD, but for all other Warner titles I chose HD-DVD. Because I had both machines, I had a choice. With all studios except Warner, you dont get a choice. Most people I meet are on blu rays nuts because of the PS3, which points it in the directions as a PS3 based format. Most people praise the PS3 as the best blu ray player on the market (I do). But Blu ray has its advantages and disadvantages just like HD-DVD. I wouldn't count on Warner going exclusive next Month at CES 2K8, and if they do, I dont see why it would be with Blu Ray Disc unless there was payment such as with HD-DVD and Paramount. There HD-DVDs are always better in terms of interactivity and believe it or not, there are actually people out there that like Combo Discs. I actually got lucky from having a combo disc a few nights ago. I was repairing a DVD player, and the only disc around to test was Tokyo Drift. If it was a BD, I would have had to drive somewhere and get a disc. But thats just me :)
Vidikron (FU) @ Dec 17th 2007 5:30PM
All PS3s will be 1.1 tomorrow.
A to the K @ Dec 19th 2007 4:23PM
TrentD @ Dec 17th 2007 5:06PM
BBG said: "Blu-ray has the same "advanced" features (if not better) then HD DVD"
So there's currently ONE Profile 1.1 player out there, which STILL doesn't have any web-enabled special features, but yet Blu-ray still has the advantage?
Funny that one player VASTLY out numbers all of the HD DVD players combined.
Eddie @ Dec 17th 2007 5:22PM
1. None of us know real sales numbers, Nielsen scans are only an estimate at best. I can guarantee you Sony and MS and Tosh have much better data available as they can readily see how many units are being moved off the shelf at all retailers.
2. Profit margins may invalidate any sales data simply because of the dollars and cents. If one costs more to manufacture, the profit margin is lower and the difference is any studio support Blu may have over Red.
3. This war isn't at a stalemate, it is very back-and-forth, similar to a game in sports. As it stands now, on a long enough timeline, Blu wins. Blu is only one score ahead of Red though, and all it will take is one "turnover" (and a score) either way. Warner could be that equalizer for Red, or the nail in its coffin. But then again, so could TL51, or another studio going neutral, or european imports, or further ps3 disappointments, or any number of scenarios. Hell, Nielsen could even out this week all the way into the new year, which certainly would not bode well for Blu.
Jody @ Dec 17th 2007 5:25PM
Warner won't fall for the BDA's lies.
Yes, they are out selling HD-DVD at nearly 2:1, but it's only 2-4% of total DVD sales.
Or Jack Tretton of SCEA saying Blu-ray has "7 out of 8 major studios". The Truth:
First of all, there are 6 Major Studios:
1. Sony Pictures (Columbia, MGM, UA, SP Classics, Screen Gems, Tristar, Destination)
2. Buena Vista MPG (Walt Disney, Touchstone, Miramax, Holloywood)
3. Fox FE (20th Century Fox, Fox Searchlight, Fox Faith, Fox Atomic)
4. Warner Bros. Ent. (Warner Bros., New Line, HBO, WB Independant, Picturehouse, Castle Rock ent.)
5. Paramount MPG (Paramount, Dreamworks, Paramount Classics, Vantage)
6. NBC Universal (Universal, Focus, Rogue)
Of these 6: 3 Are Blu-Ray exclusive, 2 are HD-DVD exclusive, 1 is Purple
There are also 3 so-called mini-major studios:
1. Lions Gate Ent.
2. The Weinstein Company
3. IMAX
Of these 3: 1 Blu-Ray exclusive, 1 HD-DVD exclusive, 1 Purple)
Or Disney's Bob Chapek claiming HD-DVD has only 2 companies supporting and Blu-Ray 170. The truth:
HD-DVD 137 Companies in the HD-DVD Promotional Group
http://www.blu-raydisc.com/general_information/Section-14009/Index.html
Blu-Ray 171 Companies in the BDA
http://www.blu-raydisc.com/general_information/Section-14009/Index.html