This is the first ever weekly installment of our synopsis of the Neilson VideoScan High-Def Market share report courtesy of Home Media Magazine. This will be out every Friday as soon as the results are released, and be very similar to our
weekly HD releases post on Mondays. Ohh, and thanks
Dave for the inspiration. The biggest title this week is
Fantastic 4: Rise of the Silver Surfer followed by
Knocked Up which was 1st last week.
Blu-ray pushes back to a 2:1 lead this week after giving a little back to
HD DVD last week (1.2:1), while year to date and since inception remain the same. Looking forward, it'll be much of the same next week, as there weren't any big titles this week, but we look forward to the week after when HD DVD's revenge will arrive in the way of
Transformers, the biggest Paramount exclusive yet to hit the street.
- Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer 100
- Knocked Up 21.11
- 300 BR 13.91
- Bram Stoker's Dracula 10.87
- Top Gun 9.23
- 300 HD 8.19
- Troy: Director's Cut BR 8.01
- Halloween 7.74
- Planet Earth: The Complete Series BR 6.88
- Next 5.62
[Via
AVSForum]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Mexigun @ Oct 12th 2007 4:03PM
Yay for Blu Ray!
Mexigun
Mike @ Oct 13th 2007 12:18AM
The only reason for the poor showing is some HD DVD fanboys are waiting till Oct 16 for their buy date to get a lot of movies they would have bought this week and last.
On the AVS thread on the buy date a lot of users are waiting till Oct 16th to bu Knocked Up. If they weren't HD DVD would have beat blue ray last week.
Jack @ Oct 12th 2007 4:23PM
I think the transformers week will be pretty close.......ALot of stores are doing BOGOF for blu-rays the same week.......
A1 @ Oct 12th 2007 4:36PM
um, i got the spidey box set today, i think thats bigger than transformers (i am in the UK though) :)
h4ldol @ Oct 12th 2007 5:19PM
Poor HD DVD fanboys. The end is nearing... for HD DVD.
DeadPlasmaCell @ Oct 12th 2007 6:20PM
Man these Blu-Ray fanboys flip flop more than John Kerry.. First it's "HD-DVD is dead, we've already won" now it's "The end is nearing" x) Good times. Meanwhile, back in the real world, HD-DVD is alive and kicking. True HD-DVD is still the underdog, but it's far from dead.
Dave @ Oct 12th 2007 5:52PM
lol So this is the week to publish it then. The last five weeks when Blu-Ray was not at 2:1, those were the unimportant weeks. Hey, at least you mentioned last week's numbers, though. Kudos for that.
Ben @ Oct 12th 2007 5:58PM
Gimmie a break Dave I just thought of the idea, thanks to you.
xemumanic @ Oct 12th 2007 5:53PM
And of course, with more movies on one format, its bound to be that way. HD DVD bought Paramount's loyalty, and even that's not going to matter by the end of the month, when Blu-Ray once again has more movies.
Dave @ Oct 12th 2007 7:41PM
Thanks for replying to my comment, Ben. ;)
Alex @ Oct 12th 2007 6:25PM
idiot fanboys sitting in their diapers creaming themselves every week for news they can twist to make themselves feel better. Get over it, neither format is great and if one wins in the short term we all lose.
DeadPlasmaCell @ Oct 12th 2007 6:37PM
LoL, true... I'm on the HD-DVD side personally, but I don't consider myself a fanboy because I realize the faults HD-DVD has. The lack of studio support compared to Blu-Ray.. well that's actually about it really.. But still in the grand scheme of things the BD vs HD-DVD battle is tiny.. Who ever "wins" this battle then has the task of beating out DVD and/or Digital Distribution.
joe @ Oct 12th 2007 6:32PM
Dave,
You criticized Ben for not showing previous weeks numbers where BD was still beating HD-DVD.
No matter what week you cut it last week, this week, this month,this year and total market has gone to Bluray.
What was your point? To show that HD-DVD can loose by a smaller margin?
HD-DVD may win, wake me when they have %49-50 since inception adoption.
Dave @ Oct 12th 2007 7:48PM
I never criticized Ben for not showing the numbers. I criticized him for mentioning the numbers at 2:1--despite the fact that they hadn't been 2:1 in a really long time. So, this is the first week in quite a some time that they are 2:1--and lo and behold, we are now announcing the numbers. Excuse me for commenting on that. They were 1.7:1, and Ben rounds to 2:1. They were 1.2:1--no story. Now they're 2:1 again, and there's a story. My primary criticism was rounding 1.7 to 2.0.
I think it was valid criticism. I'm sorry if others disagree.
Anyway, Ben commented on the fact they were 1.2:1 last week--and I believe I distributed the appropriate amount of props for that.
isayx3 @ Oct 12th 2007 7:39PM
Keep in mind these numbers reflect millions of Bluray players vs. couple hundred thousand hd-dvd players out there. The average hd-dvd owner buys more HD movies than bluray. With cheap 3rd gen hd-dvd players coming out this christmas..these numbers will change.
Smee @ Oct 12th 2007 7:44PM
A legitimate paying customer buys a Sony Cd, takes it home and Sony installs a virus on his machine.
What is it with you sony/BR fools. This company is hell bent and screwing their customer base, yet you idiots keep supporting it and want it to win. No matter how good the product may or may not be, the BR format should never be allowed to win, first and foremost it is about sony dictating its draconian DRM laws to the legitimate majority, and they don't care who gets burnt along the way.
The PS3 first and foremost is a BR player, i feel sorry for the suckers who thought they were buying a games machine and are now stuck with a beautifully engineered door stop, and please, don't give me any grief about the quality games the PS3 have, they simply don't and sony don't care.It's all about winning the HD format war, and until sony has that sewn up, the games console buyers are the bridesmaids and not the bride.
What a joke
h4ldol @ Oct 12th 2007 8:01PM
Smee... why so angry? I'm guessing someone can't afford a PS3 and had to get one of those overheating little 360s... so sorry.
Dave @ Oct 12th 2007 8:13PM
I can't afford a PS3 either. I can't afford to buy a game console without any good games for it which may or may not be compatible with Profile 1.1 and 2.0.
Smee @ Oct 12th 2007 8:33PM
@h4ldol
At 37 years of age i think I can afford a PS3 to go with one of 2 50"plasmas I own,but I wont because I hate what sony stands for.
So go tidy up your room and then go squeeze your zits, puberty boy.
zargon @ Oct 12th 2007 9:03PM
Look all the BR fanboys come out of the wood work. Where were you the past few weeks when the ratio was much smaller and almost even?
I am waiting to see where all you fanboys will be hiding in two weeks...
The past few weeks have have shown that the race is pretty much dead even. As Q4 comes to a end, I am sure that the ratio is going to get closer and closer, Blu-ray is losing ground. The weeks are going to go back and forth due to the release schedule, but by end of the year, I have no reservation that this is going to be pretty close to 50/50. Which is outstanding when you compare studio support and the amount of players for each format out there.
I am also hoping that the rumors that we have heard some whispers about are true, that we will see Warner go exclusive next year. I want to see it if not for nothing else, to watch all the blu-ray fanboys and zealots squirm and come up with wild excuses... oh and to level the playing field as far as studio support.
Paul Fernandez @ Oct 12th 2007 9:22PM
"Loose" rhymes with "moose" and is the opposite of taut.
"Lose" rhymes with "cruise" and means to misplace.
"Loosening" is a word, but "loosing" is not and never has been.
For the life of me, I CANNOT understand the epidemic confusion between these two words on every site from AVS Forum to ZDNet. Of course, it's more rampant when discussing these two formats ad infinitum. Forget burgeoning obesity (pun intended), this country needs a grammatical enema!
Then again, when we have a president who uses words like "hispanically," it all becomes so clear...
Mike @ Oct 13th 2007 12:28AM
The since inception info is the most misleading. If you go to AVS where a thread is kept of the numbers for all year you would see in march blue ray lead 70-30 for the year to date data...due in big part to a million ps3 and no good games to play.
But then in April when Toshiba had the $100 instant rebate and HD DVD started selling over 10,000 players a month (not counting then xbox360 add on) then followed with great prices at Amazon, best buy and value electronics the year to date sales slowly shrank till about 3 or 4 weeks ago it hit 66-34. And last week the numbers were 54-46.
So the thing to watch is how the better priced HD DVD starts taking off with the middle class and joe 6 pack how blue ray loose that lead.
Mike @ Oct 13th 2007 12:35AM
Day Week YTD SI
01/07 63.3/36.7 63.3/36.7 41.2/58.8
01/14 68.2/31.8 65.7/34.3 43.2/56.8
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 69.0/31.0 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9
02/11 69.6/30.4 67.7/32.3 49.3/50.7
02/18 65.0/35.0 67.4/32.6 50.3/49.7
02/25 68.5/31.5 67.4/32.6 51.5/48.5
03/04 65.7/34.3 67.2/32.8 52.2/47.8
03/11 68.7/31.3 67.9/32.1 52.8/47.2
03/18 81.7/18.3 69.2/30.8 54.3/45.7
03/25 n/a 70.4/29.6 55.6/44.4
04/01 n/a 69.9/30.1 56.2/43.8
04/08 62.4/37.6 69.4/30.6 56.4/43.6
04/15 61/39 69/31 57/43
04/22 52/48 68/32 57/43
04/29 71/29 68/32 58/42
05/06 60/40 68/32 57/43
05/13 62/38 68/32 57/43
05/20 58/42 67/33 57/43
05/27 69/31 67/33 58/42
06/03 61/39 67/33 59/41
06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41
06/17 64/36 67/33 59/41
06/24 70/30 67/33 59/41
07/01 65/35 67/33 60/40
07/08 66/34 67/33 60/40
07/15 61/39 67/33 60/40
07/22 74/26 67/33 60/40
07/29 66/34 67/33 60/40
08/05 62/38 66/34 60/40
08/12 66/34 66/34 61/39
08/19 71/29 67/33 61/39
08/26 68/32 67/33 61/39
09/02 56/44 66/34 61/39
09/09 60/40 66/34 61/39
09/16 61/39 66/34 61/39
09/23 63/37 66/34 61/39
09/23 54/46 66/34 61/39
Dave @ Oct 13th 2007 1:38AM
Approaching 70% steadily :)
Yeah!
Mike @ Oct 13th 2007 5:06AM
No..the days of 70% are gone...except for maybe spiderman 3 week. But by then the number of new HD DVD players buying new movies may even prevent 70% that week.
DeadPlasmaCell @ Oct 13th 2007 3:42AM
Aah Yes.. Fridays are going to be fun fun silly willy now :)
Galley @ Oct 13th 2007 10:50AM
Many online retailers are selling BDs for as little as $9.99 (for a limited time only). Suck on that, Toshiba!
zargon @ Oct 13th 2007 12:46PM
"Suck on that, Toshiba!"
Suck on what? It sounds like BDA sure is deperate... having to supplement BR costs just to boost sales.
I hope Sony and the BDA can continue to sustain all this money they are losing try to keep BR going.
Jimmy @ Oct 13th 2007 5:42PM
Are any of you being paid by Toshiba or the BDA? I really would like to know this.
Here are numbers - no spin - just numbers. I am in no way suggesting that one format is better than the other - these are just numbers.
1. Blu-ray sells more movies, according to Nielsen, every week. The Since Inception numbers have been steadily climbing. If the current trend continues the SI numbers will be 62/38 within two weeks. (I have no way of knowing if the trend will continue, I am only looking at the graphs.)
2. According to Toshiba's most recently announced numbers they are selling approximately 10,000 stand-alone players per week. According to the recent NPD numbers that is 53% of the players sold with Blu-ray at 44% and dual-format at 3%. So then the numbers are 10,000 HD DVD players per week, 8,302 Blu-ray players per week, and 566 dual-format players. For a grand total of 18,868 players sold per week. (These numbers assume the 10k per week from Toshiba is correct, I have no way to verify this number. I would also point out that the graph shows a decline from 70% to 53% for HD DVD in the last 6 months.)
3. Compared to the 19k stand alone players sold weekly the PS3 is selling, on average, 30k units per week. This is the average over the last 4 weeks. (I would like to see a comparison of this number to the HD DVD add-on for the 360 but I do not have those numbers. Also at various times Toshiba has included the add-on in their calculations of stand-alone players; however, I do not think the 10k number above includes them.)
One last note. The numbers I quoted here are the most accurate I have access to and only represent the United States.
If anyone else has any more accurate numbers I would love to see them.
Mike @ Oct 13th 2007 10:12PM
Have you looked at the last months data?
09/02 56/44 66/34 61/39
09/09 60/40 66/34 61/39
09/16 61/39 66/34 61/39
09/23 63/37 66/34 61/39
09/23 54/46 66/34 61/39
how does BD selling 56% 60% 61% 63% 54% move the SI higher then 61%? talk about spin...or bad math.
With Transformers coming out next week there is a better chance of it dropping back to 60%.
Again the telling data is how the year to date gap has narrowed since toshiba started lowering the price of HD DVD to a price the middle class will pay...and when HD DVD is under $149 or $129 then the joe 6pk crowd will jump on.
I have not seen Toshiba release sells figures since this summer..except at CEDIA they said they will sell 1 million by end of year.
Jimmy @ Oct 14th 2007 12:20PM
--QUOTE
how does BD selling 56% 60% 61% 63% 54% move the SI higher then 61%? talk about spin...or bad math.
--END QUOTE
Mike, there is neither spin nor bad math here. Maybe you do not understand the concept of a trend.
Trend -
1. The general drift, tendency or bent of a set of statistical data as related to time.
2. The general direction, either upward or downward of a market.
Using either of these definitions and a basic graph anyone can see the trend. Try it. This of course, as I have already said, assumes that the trend continues. If HD DVD sales better in upcoming weeks then the trend is not continuing and the SI will not increase.
One last thing, why did you decide to leave out last week's numbers? Maybe because the 68% Blu-ray supports exactly what I said in my post?
richard @ Oct 14th 2007 5:51AM
11 of top 15 movies of 2006 are from blu-ray exclusive studios. 7 of top 15 from Sony themselves.
Box Office 2006 Source: Box Office Mojo
Position Title Studio Domestic Gross
1 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $423,315,812 blu-ray only
2 Cars BV $244,082,982 blu-ray only
3 X-Men III: The Last Stand Fox $234,362,462 blu-ray only
4 The Da Vinci Code Sony $217,536,138 blu-ray only
5 Superman Returns WB $200,081,192 both
6 Ice Age: The Meltdown Fox $195,330,621 blu-ray only
7 Happy Feet WB $185,625,671 both
8 Night at the Museum Fox $165,150,384 blu-ray only
9 Casino Royale Sony $160,047,891 blu-ray only
10 Over the Hedge P/DW $155,019,34 hd-dvd only
11 Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby Sony $148,213,377 blu-ray only
12 Click Sony $137,340,146 blu only
13 Mission: Impossible III Par. $133,501,348 hd-dvd only
14 Borat Fox $126,598,982 blu-ray only
15 The Pursuit of Happyness Sony $124,834,524 blu-ray only
Paramaount only holds the #10 + #13 spots, Universal didn't make the top 15.
Top Ten Global Summer Blockbusters of 2007
# Film Gross ($M)
1 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $958 blu-ray only
2 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $912 both
3 Spider-Man 3 $890 blu-ray only
4 Shrek the Third $757 hd-dvd only
5 Transformers $685 hd-dvd only
6 The Simpsons Movie $482 blu-ray only
7 Ratatouille $390 blu-ray only
8 Die Hard 4.0 $356 blu-ray only
9 Ocean's Thirteen $305 both
10 The Bourne Ultimatum $278 hd-dvd only
7 on blu-ray, 5 on hd-dvd. 5 blu-ray exclusives, 3 hd-dvd exclusives, 2 neutrals.
Hd-dvd exclusive studios, Universal/NBC tv, and Paramount/Dreamworks
Blu-ray exclusive studios, Sony, including Columbia, 20th Century Fox/Fox tv, Lionsgate, MGM, Disney/Buena Vista, Miramax, Pixar, and Touchstone.
Plenty of good movies for both, but blu-ray has a much greater selection.
Between now (10/10) and the end of the year blu-ray has 120 announced titles coming out to hd dvds 65.
Put together these facts when I was on the fence trying to decide between the 2 formats. I suppose I don't need to tell you which way I went. It had nothing to do with Sony infatuation, although I do believe that they make very good quality products hence they charge more and still are an industry leader. I had a Toshiba vcr many years ago and thought it was well made too.
For me it came down to movies available and on the horizon. Studio backing, and elec. manufacturer support. Most electronic hardware producers have joined blu-ray including Philips, Sharp, JVC, LG, Daewoo, Loewe, Denon, Funai, Hitachi, Harmon Kardon, Sony, Apple, Dell, Acer, TDK, Samsung, Panasonic, Mitsubishi, intel, and Hewlett Packard.
Manufacturer support of hd-dvd, Hewlett Packard, Acer, Toshiba, LG (combo player), Microsoft, Samsung (combo player), and Venturer.
Hd-dvds are losing shelf space to blu-ray at Targets, Walmarts, Frys, and Blockbuster retail is blu-ray exclusive.
If hd dvd wins there will be no competition to keep hd dvd hardware prices down. If blu-ray wins we still have every major manufacturer except for Toshiba battling it out.
Dave @ Oct 14th 2007 2:34PM
I guess Target, Wal-Mart, and Fry's are different in your town. Here in Austin, TX, and everywhere I've received news from on AVS Forum, shelf space is equally divided. Where exactly do you live?
EJNelly @ Oct 14th 2007 8:01PM
I think the bigger story here isn't the normal HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray nonsense. It's the fact that Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, the most god-awful movie I saw this summer, is the top selling movie in HD.
Mike @ Oct 15th 2007 2:52AM
AND FF2 will also soon be available on HD DVD as an import
Mike @ Oct 15th 2007 3:01AM
OK...look at the this years data...at the end of march BD had sold 70% of the HD media and HD DVD less then 30%...now BD is only responsible for 66%..the trend shows BD loosing market share.
The original story has this weeks numbers and when I went to the AVS thread and copied this post it was only updated to what i have...but since the story is about Oct 7th data it isn't really needed.
Robert @ Oct 17th 2007 9:55PM
If you have the cash buying both players is the way to go. Eventualy everyone will have dual format players and no one will care about the so-called "war"