We've talked the HD DVD / Blu-ray
format war to
death, using everything from
officious study group
findings to our own
gorilla guerilla tactics. But you know that a topic has reached a mainstream public level when it shows up in the
Wall Street Journal. Let's face it -- to the mass of consumers that will decide which format (if either) wins this war, the WSJ carries a lot more weight than enthusiast-oriented media. There's nothing new in the link for regular readers of EHD, but it does a good job of summarizing the quagmire that is the format war. HDTV sales are up, so you know consumers want HD, but people aren't picking up HD players. There are lots of issues at play, but the end result is that consumers aren't getting what they want. Take a deep breath and check out the link to see how this mess is portrayed to the pulic-at-large.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Sean @ Sep 26th 2007 4:57PM
Good article. Some things she was saying weren't true (Spiderman and Shrek not ready for release). She was pretty much discussing what we all discuss here everytime about HD-DVD and Blu Ray Disc.
-POPS!
Nate the Prophet @ Sep 26th 2007 5:09PM
I'm sorry folks, but it really is ALL ABOUT PRICE of the players. Whether or not is "should" be or not, that's the fact for most consumers. Most consumers are not EngadgetHD pro-sumers, they're just regular people who want something nice, cheap, and just want to push play and have fun.
Sony is actually getting the message, too. Very few people bought a PS3 at $600, so they dropped it to $500 and sold a TON of them. Now they'll drop a $400 version and will outsell the Xbox360 for the holiday season. It's all about price.
By the way, what is the SINGLE BEST SELLING high-def standalone player? The HD-DVD cheapo 1080i player--by far. Why? Because 80% of HDTVs in people's homes are 1080i, not 1080p, so they only need the 1080i player (source--Engadget).
BluRay fanboys shout all day long about how price doesn't matter because BR is better technology, blah blah. I don't need to list for you the failed formats that were "better" tech than the formats that won. What is "better" is totally irrelevant for mainstream market penetration. BR isn't going anywhere, but it will give up the #1 slot to HD DVD unless it gets the price down quickly.
All that matters is price, because most people don't research stuff or even really care--which is why they're buying 720p/1080i HDTVs--they just want to buy something cheap and push play.
Dave @ Sep 26th 2007 5:18PM
I see your point--and I don't disagree. But I think that if people put in the time to do the research on the tech, they may come away preferring HD-DVD--regardless of price. I did.
Nfinity @ Sep 26th 2007 5:24PM
NateTheProphet said: "Now they'll drop a $400 version and will outsell the Xbox360 for the holiday season"
LOL..Outsell Xbox 360 hahahahah.. You do realize that nobody is buying PS3 games that are also available on X360 right? They simply look worse.
The latest numbers show that PS3 sales dropped 42% in the last 2 weeks, where XBox 360 is outselling it 3:1 and is equal to Wii sales now, and that's before Halo 3.
Playstation 3 is in a dumpster and no price drop will save it now. There's a reason for Halo 3 slogan "FINISH THE FIGHT". Cause after Halo 3 and holiday, the fight will be finished.
I don't understand why everyone is surprised. You can't push a $600 console a year and a half into the war with very capable competing consoles and expect you'll succeed.
To be honest and I don't mean to offend anyone, but I will sell my 60gb PS3. I've had it from the start and I didn't turn it on several times. 4-5 times to play Resistance or Motorstorm and lately Heavenly Sword, and on ocassion some Blu-Ray movie, but all this is getting ridiculous.
After Heavenly Sword none of the games coming out seems groundbreaking or earth shattering. Metal Gear Solid 4..right..running around with a grandpa holding dicks on statues and choppy animations with tank shooting at you and not killing you... No thanks.
Sony can give away PS3s for free now, people stil wouldn't be buying it. There's nothign out there on IT. Compare that to $349 Premium console with Xbox live and you have the ultimate gaming machine. Sure, you get Blu-ray playback, but as we saw so far, nobody gives a crap. If you game you pick Xbox 360 simple as that.
Mike @ Sep 26th 2007 7:08PM
Wow, did you just copy and paste your comment from the blue rays to lose comments?
Xbox360 sold more then 2x the number of ps3 inaug according to npd...ps3 isn't selling more then the 360 anytime soon.
Vince @ Sep 26th 2007 5:23PM
"Now they'll drop a $400 version and will outsell the Xbox360 for the holiday season. It's all about price."
Give me a break, the last PS3 pricedrop didn't afford that many sales and still didn't even get it within breathing room of the competition. The PS3 doesn't have an impressive games library now, so I find your holiday season forecast highly suspect and not very likely. The only unknown is whether people will go out in droves to buy a high-def player at $400 that you can't even find in the home theater section of your average brick and mortar store...
Nate the Prophet @ Sep 26th 2007 5:30PM
Look everyone, I wasn't trying to get into a PS3 vs X360 thing here, lol. I was just using the PS3 as an example of the fact that Sony has realized that premium priced products, even if they are "superior" in the minds of Sony, will not outsell lower priced alternatives (i.e. the Wii).
I don't care about PS3 sales, it was just an example. The only thing the PS3 helps to insure is that BluRay isn't going anywhere for a while.
IHATEFANBOYS @ Sep 29th 2007 2:51PM
You are obviously an xbox fanboy because everything you said in that comment was complete and utter bullshit.
Vince @ Sep 26th 2007 5:45PM
Fair nuff, Nate...I agree with you otherwise. ;)
Nate the Prophet @ Sep 26th 2007 5:40PM
And to those who say "but BR is already outselling HD-DVD..."
Total market penetration of high-def players of both verieties is less than 2%. 2% of the market = NOTHING! Let's say BR owns 75% of the high-def optical disc market (just to pick a number). 75% of nothing = nothing
The fact is that there are very few player of either kind in homes right now. Who is ahead right now means nothing. Who can grap the majority of the next 25% market share--that's everything!
HD DVD has been playing its hand better than BR so far, but it looks like Sony might be getting the picture. We'll see.
It's all about price!
Chaz @ Sep 26th 2007 6:12PM
This holiday season will say a lot... and price pushes inception... ($200 HD-DVD player vs. a $400 BD player).
Paramount and Dreamworks knew what they were doing.......
Rob @ Sep 26th 2007 6:29PM
Everybody's forgetting the value of CONTENT. No matter what the price, neither format will fully succeed if they don't support movies from ALL the major studios.
Joel_O @ Sep 26th 2007 6:43PM
This is all funny. Blu-ray/HD-DVD fanboys all tout all these things like Blu-ray/HD-DVD is a FUD, HD-DVD is cheaper, Sony Betamax = Blu-ray, etc. But everyone should take notice that while websites post "Blu-ray is ahead on discs sold" or "HD-DVD is selling more hardware," that there are more companies marketing and creating more Blu-ray players than HD-DVD players. Almost every 2 weeks there is a new player for Blu-ray. Toshiba is the only company that produces HD-DVD players. While Samsung and LG produce Dual Format Players. Even if HD-DVD was winning and Blu-ray was losing, wouldn't companies think "Hey why are we promoting and coming out with more Blu-ray players when HD-DVD is winning?"
I tell you why, its because they know the numbers more than anyone or any website and they are pouring money into an investment that they see is worth it. Companies wont go blindedly into something new unless its the company pioneering it.
Even when your not including Sony and their 6 players and PS3, there are MORE companies that have MORE models on Blu-ray than on HD-DVD or dual format players.
Nfinity @ Sep 26th 2007 7:19PM
That might be true, if you actually had so many players out there. But right now, the only thing you have is showcase of players yet to hit the market. Second, just because a bunch of CEs support it, doesn't meant it's better or pro-consumer product.
ALL of them can push 20 different models of players, when they cost $500-$600 and you get same quality with actually MORE features for $200, it's very obvious what will happen.
I'm sorry but even though brand names like Philips and Panasonic and Sony are indeed better sounding, Toshiba, Microsoft, LG, Samsung, Onkyo, Denon, Integra, Meridian, bunch of wallmart brands (tied to Chinese manufacturer Alco) etc etc are certainly FAR from nothing.
Quite simply this is the fight between companies that have a model (quantity and quality for cheap) against companies who have a strong desire to follow the 1997 model of DVD adoption where they can charge high prices and then get the customers to double and triple dip within next year or two. That's the whole difference.
Well honestly, I don't support it and no marketing and show of force will make me change my mind, especially when I do have quality equipment to choose from.
horngreen @ Sep 26th 2007 7:22PM
Can you say dual format?
Nfinity @ Sep 26th 2007 7:28PM
Yes, I can, and it would be great, but you know I'm funny that way, THE ONLY dual format player I would buy is the one which has COMPLETED Blu-Ray specs and Profile 2.0 and HD DVD. And yeah, it needs to cost around $400 at the most. Then I'll say, yes I'm all for dual format players.
But right now, I can't justify and recommend anyone to purchase a dual format player that they will pay $800-$1000 (mostly because Blu-Ray costs a lot) and it comes with Profile 1.0 support for Blu-ray. What's the freakin' point? You still get an incomplete product on Blu-Ray side.
joe @ Sep 26th 2007 7:30PM
Not that I want them to be but sometimes companies get things wrong. It IS encouraging that there are so many BD player makers but that could simply be because with the Toshiba player subsidy is so great no one else can afford to make a player.
BD can support a much more primitive format then HD no networking, no secondary video decoder, limited interactive content. The fundamentals for playing the disks, lasers and optics are a little different but near identical. Since they both use the same codecs and DRM they are likely to use identical,or very very similar, video processors.
Has anyone explained how a technically more demanding product,HD-DVD, is produced for less than a BD player?
Sony closed the gap with the S300 being in the sub $400 range, I'd guess an easy $300 by the holidays If they decide to subsidize you might wind up with a $250 BD player by Sony Vs. a $200 no name HD-DVD.
The short of it is that the format war itself is keeping consumers from choosing. Anyone who does a little research see that there are two competing formats and decides that they can wait it out with upscaled DVD's.
If that wasn't the case and as many HD-DVD fans say, price is king, the format war would already be in the final stages. There has been an available $200 Toshiba model for months, coupled with 7 free movies, the war would be over. That is if it was price that really mattered.
Mike @ Sep 26th 2007 10:51PM
Where have you seen a blue ray player under $400? I have never seen it under $470. The Toshiba A2 has been on sale for $199 a couple times at differnt places and has been under $220 a bunch of times.
So a $400 blue ray by Christmas might be possible and a $150 HD DVD player.
The Jeremy @ Sep 26th 2007 7:37PM
The whole situation is rather amusing. As Joel above pointed out, more and more consumer electronics companies each week are releasing new Blu-ray players as we get closer to the holiday season. Joe Consumer is definitely going to take notice of this when he strolls into Best Buy and sees 10 different manufacturers with Blu-ray players and Toshiba the sole HD DVD manufacturer (not counting Venturer, Cyberlink, or some other off-brand on rebate special). The only other situation that I can think of where a standard backed by most of the consumer electronics companies did not take off was with (Microsoft's) MSX computer standard, which was successful in Japan but a total failure in the U.S. and most of Europe. That is the only analogy that someone critical of Blu-ray (and favoring HD DVD) can make and be accurate.
The other amusing thing with this is Toshiba and the HD DVD Association are banking upon cheap Chinese brands to save their platform. These would be the same Chinese brands/manufacturers - like Apex - that were the cause of the rapid cost cutting that happened to DVD players a few years back which Toshiba vigorously complained about. Why did they complain? Because Toshiba was/is one of the largest patent holding companies of the DVD format and they claimed that Apex and their ilk weren't paying the royalties owed to Toshiba. And now, we have Toshiba welcoming these companies with open arms in their effort to thwart Sony, Matsushita, Denon, Sharp, Pioneer, LG, Samsung, Philips, and every other noteworthy consumer electronics company. Oh the irony.
joe @ Sep 26th 2007 7:57PM
To make this very separate
How does Toshiba make HD-DVD players cheaper than BD players?
Everything about them spec wise has to be better then the minimum BD spec, they are very physically similar.
As a comparison spec out a PC that can play uncompressed 1920x1080 content at 30fps, even from a hard drive. I'd guess you are looking at $500-1000 as a base without OS and PC's have pretty slim margins.
Nfinity @ Sep 26th 2007 8:06PM
This has to be one of the dumbest comparisons ever made.
Listen..your desire that Toshiba is subsidizing players is beyond ridiculous..Sure they are losing some money on the cheapest $200 models, but it's nothing way to out of whack like PS3 for example. The biggest loss Toshiba took was on generation 1 HD DVD players and it was around $164 per player according to iSuppli. This was like a year and a half ago.
When they shifted production to China their manufacturing costs went down considerably.
Second thing, no matter what, whether they lose money or not, WHO WINS? That's right YOU, you idiot. Saying that players need to be $500 and we need to pay it so the company doesn't lose money is the most moronic thing a consumer can say. That's what I call a brainwashed fanboy.
If Toshiba was losing $300 per player I wouldn't care. Why? Cause I'm getting an AWESOME $200 player.
Nfinity @ Sep 26th 2007 8:12PM
No, what you will see is 2 or 3 more players on the BD side that cost $300-$400 then any of the Toshiba 3rd gen HD DVD players + Microsoft add-on at probably $149 or less for your Xbox 360 + probably a $149 cheaper Venturer HD DV player with the same picture quality as Blu-Ray ones.
So what a consumer will see, it several brand name BD players being sold for $500+ and several HD DVD players being sold for
joe @ Sep 26th 2007 8:27PM
nfinity-
Listen jackass I asked a question I want an answer for not just some FUD.
Everyone is making there crap in China. The PS3 is made in China, the Wii is made in china the 360 is made in china. Without actually flipping over a HD-DVD player or a BD player I'm more than confident BOTH come off lines in China.
What the first HD-DVD players were hand made by Japanese master craftsmen?
I'm glad you like your $200 player.
Now can someone please venture to answer the question?
Mike @ Sep 26th 2007 11:11PM
Joe...who cares how they make it cheaper...what, is your real name Kathy Lee Giford?
When I buy my HDTV (and I hope this year) I will buy the cheapest option...and I'm not going to be asking the salesman to call and find out how it was built so cheap.
They probably hope to make up difference in royalties on DVD's sold...but then again WHO CARES
joe @ Sep 27th 2007 12:30AM
I care.
One I'm a geek and if they have a cool technology or just pain though real hard about it when designing the specs it IS possible that they pulled a coup and designed a better product that costs less to make.
Two it matters in my purchase. If HD-DVD players can legitimately be made $150-200 less than BD can make a player for then HD-DVD will win.
They will be able to outlast any bluray counter campaign since they are profitable.
If they are slashing prices in the hopes capturing the market and the prices of manufacture are equivalent HD-DVD and BD they will have a much tougher time. Since the BDA can just do the SAME thing and release a cut rate player.
It also means the BDA people aren't talking trash about actually making a profit. Given that the price cuts and offers have made a very small dent in market penetration for HD the BDA waiting is a good thing. Basically let Toshiba bleed out profit early for a paper gain that can be taken though a reactive price cut.
If HD-DVD players can be made that much cheaper it doesn't apply. The BDA is at a true disadvantage. You can't soak up those kinda of losses. It'd be a slow bleed with no real hope.
Mike @ Sep 27th 2007 4:40AM
I guess that reasoning makes sense...the only thing i found (didn't look 2 hard as I just care who is cheaper now) was a line at this article.
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070925-hd-dvd-and-blu-ray-deadlock-to-continue-into-2009-at-least.html
In contrast, higher component and manufacturing costs have kept the price of Blu-ray drives $100-200 higher than their HD DVD counterparts. A quick scan of Amazon.com shows the cheapest Blu-ray player, the Sony BDP-S300, priced at $437.79; the least-expensive HD DVD player, the Toshiba HD-A2, is almost $200 cheaper.
..
I would skim thru the avs forums and see if the price break down is quoted there.
Nate the Prophet @ Sep 27th 2007 3:49AM
To everyone--
Yes, there are far more BR players slated for release soon than HD DVD, absolutely. However, have you noticed the prices of those players? LG has a nice looking $600 model, but beyond that they are nearly all sitting around the $1000 price range. So you think that a consumer seeing 10 of them on Best Buy shelves (which they never will--yesterday when I was there they had 3 BR players displayed) they will think BR looks better? Most will think BR = $1000 and HD DVD = $300. I'm sure most of these forthcoming BR players are wonderful and work exceptionally well...
HOWEVER. It seems far more likely to me that most of these manufactures have jumped on the BR bandwagon because they see the opportunity for profit. The profit margins on premium products are very high, and companies saw an opportunity worth jumping at.
This does not necessarily mean that all these manufacturers have some sort of format war clairvoyance and "know" that BR will win, or that there has been a secret meeting with the heads off all the Five Families that has already decided that they will ensure BR will win...even if they have to make Toshiba an offer than can't refuse. They simply see the opportunity for profit on premium devices.
It should be noted that there IS a cheap BR player--Sony s300 is available at Amazon for around $440 usually (though I don't know why you'd buy that over a PS3...). That's definitely getting closer to a consumer-level price, but still not there yet. Compare this to the Tosh HD-A2 which is around $240 at Amazon. Both players come with 5 (sometimes 7) free movies. After taxes and shipping the cheapest BR player is nearly twice as much as the cheapest HD DVD player. That is significant.
To Joe--
I'm not sure which is actually cheaper to make, but Sony has bemoaned the high expense of BR when talking about why the PS3 is priced the way it is. Couple that with the fact that across the board BR players are more expensive than HD DVD players, and I'm going to guess that HD DVD is cheaper to make. But that is a deduction, I don't have any tech specs for you.
Nate the Prophet @ Sep 27th 2007 4:07AM
The role of the PC industry should also not be forgotten here. DVD burners were crucial in the market saturation of the DVD format (both + and - R), and the proliferation of use drove the prices of dvds down VERY fast.
Blu Ray SHOULD be taking the computer world by storm, with the high capacity and potential for an insane amount of disposable portable storage space. I was really excited about Blu Ray when I heard about it 3 years ago, and still am.
But HD DVD now controls over 75% of the PC market (among hi-def drives) according to another Engadget article. HOW? Obviously they have the #4 manufacturer (Toshiba) and the #1 (HP) recently declared they were going HD DVD in their computers. But HD-DVD also has #5 and #6 (Acer and Gateway).
This is inexcusable on the part of the BRDA. Now BR has the #2 manufacturer (Dell) and the #7 (Sony), which is certainly important. Apple, the #3 computer manufacturer, does not yet offer either format (even though CEO Steve Jobs is on the boards of the Blu Ray Disc Association and Walt Disney...)
If BR was cleaning up in the PC world like it should be, that would be a HUGE boost for the BR format. As it is, their computer market share is keeping HD DVD going, and could end up being one of the major factors in deciding a victor.
(By the way I own neither BR nor HD DVD)
smee @ Sep 27th 2007 4:32AM
It makes me laugh to hear 'The format war is keeping buyers away', that is mostly bullshit, it only keeps the informed away like some that blog here, and that is a very small minority.
J6P hasn't heard about720p or 1080i/1080p yet, hell, J6P doesn't even know the diff between Plasma v LCD, you really think he's staying away from HD discs because of the war, what a joke!!
J6P has all ready, or can buy an upscaling DVD recorder AND home theatre system FOR LESS MONEY them most BR players! Really, why the hell would he want to buy BR!
Other then tech savy HD geeks like most of us here, why would anyone want HD discs, a DVD recorder and home cinema with change or a BR player, I know what I would buy!
There is only one thing that is going to drive HD player sales volume,and Tosh knows it, and that is PRICE AND PRICE ALONE.
If they are very cheap, J6P might buy one to add to his home cinema experience, otherwise, he is very happy with what he has got.
This war will be won when the players are readily available at less then $200, maybe they even need to be $99 for mass adoption, because why would J6P give a shit otherwise, he cant justify the coin required, SIMPLE.
smee @ Sep 27th 2007 4:46AM
Also, people harp on about all the CE manufacturers supporting BR, big deal. There must be some serious pain out there for those companies. HD disc adoption is just not happening because of the high prices, so how are they ever going to make money?
Eliminate HD DVD and keep prices up and maintain the status quo, 1-2 of the market?
Unless prices are cheap, people want adopt on mass, and this is the major problem sony has. How can they keep the BR team together when the manufacturers are investing and producing flat out and getting no result? The only BR player that is selling is the PS3! If they dramatically reduce the price of PS3 and destroy HD DVD, where does that leave the other BR manufacturers?
Tosh with the smaller consortium, and leading the charge on price can win this thing.
Sony has banked on mass adoption like DVD, but as I said previously, that is never going to happen unless the prices are very cheap, i think the BR consortium has a lot of pain in front of it win, loose or draw.
smee @ Sep 27th 2007 4:51AM
Damn, that should read 1-2% of the market
Dave @ Sep 27th 2007 5:30AM
The format war will be over very soon and the hd dud shills will be pulling their hair derailing minds :D
joe @ Sep 27th 2007 2:03PM
Mike,
I read through the ars article. It seems that they are making assumptions about manufacturing costs since they are quoting retail prices. I've seen the s300 for $399 could have been a ploy to have a 'sub $400' player.
Nate,
The Sony complaints on the PS3 Bluray price are in comparison to DVD. If you add the HD-DVD add on to the xbox360 you wind up with a unit that is performance wise very similar to the PS3 as well as costing the same.
Of course MS cut more corners with the manufacture of the the 360 and Sony paid a bit more out of pocket on the ps3.
I just don't see any reason why HD-DVD is cheaper to make, or on the flip side why BD is more expensive to make. Or at least I haven't been presented with the facts as to why they would be THAT much different. The one thing I have heard, without source, is that the optics for BD are glass and HD-DVD are vacuum molded plastics. That is a $10 difference at most.
To get beyond the fanboy support it is important to ask questions as to why certain things are.
Sean @ Sep 27th 2007 2:14PM
Ok, ive been reading through the postings here, and alot of your are on the right track. Yes, companies are supporting the more expensive format more then the cheaper one. Not because "It holds 50GB in 2 layers". Because it is in deed a premium item. I mean, look, when your cheapest player on the market is $499.99 MSRP and doesn't even support all the features the format has to offer, theres a problem. The optical pickup is entirely different for Blu Ray then it is for HD-DVD. One way RICOH has overcome this is by developing a lens system that adjust its focus points, hince Dual Format players. Dual format players are expensive because of all the different parts it has to incorporate. I know Broadcom developed an IC that could run BD/HD-DVD. I am sure Samsung is using it in there new machine coming out this fall. Another issue is the fact that Blu Ray lasers have to focus much harder then HD-DVD, hince the advanced and more expensive technology. Look, if you don't like the price of Blu Ray Disc players, get HD-DVD. It isn't going anywhere for quite some time, more and more companies are going to jump on the band wagon eventually and make players. There isn't much more they could do to an HD-DVD player to make it any better and cheaper except decrease power on-load times, and make the players even cheaper then they are now. HD-DVD optical pickups use one thing that Blu Ray Disc uses, Blue Violet Laser diodes. Any thoughts?
Nate the Prophet @ Sep 27th 2007 3:18PM
Joe and others--
So if BR and HD DVD cost roughly the same amount of money to make, that begs the question:
Are BR manufacturers trying to make a killing of a premium product by charging too much, OR is Toshiba taking a big loss in order to promote adoption of it's format?
The former would be expected, but if the later is true, that could mean bad news. If any of the manufacturers are taking a loss to promote their product/format, they cannot do so forever. Eventually the Execs will just eat the sunk cost and demand ANY sort of profit to make a bottom line (again, I point you to the PS3).
joe @ Sep 27th 2007 3:44PM
The company support is what has me thinking that Toshiba is artificially holding down the price floor.
I think more companies would be making HD-DVD players if there was profit in them. The future matters to some degree but investments made to produce BD-players can be converted over to HD-DVD and vice versa. There isn't much reason for any electronic maker not to produce HD-DVD. Unless Toshiba has unreasonable license fees on hardware.
The development of dual format players and dual format supporting PC also lead me to believe that the two formats are more similar than different. I doubt that at a shelf costs of around $700 there are two independent video processing chains, two aacs decoders,two audio decoding chips, etc.
The if the change in focus is the primary difference it's not a huge cost difference. Different optics maybe a 10-$20 difference.The fact the Ricoh could make an adaptive focus lens system that works for both tells me that they can not be all to dissimilar.
I'm just not convinced that shifting the focal point of the same wavelength laser results in a $100-$200 difference.
Nate the Prophet @ Sep 27th 2007 4:02PM
Good thoughts.
Another possibility is that Microsoft is subsidizing some expenses for Toshiba. Since MS owns the codec rights, etc., for HD DVD and is the big dog in the consortium. MS also footed most of the bill to buy out Paramount/Dreamworks to HD DVD. It could be that Toshiba made a deal with MS for cooperation to try to push adoption of their format.