Has Blu-ray already lost?
by Ben Drawbaugh 
posted Aug 28th 2007 at 3:31PM
Tech analyst Rob Enderle -- which supposedly used to believe that Blu-ray would win -- has declared "Blu-ray will lose". He still isn't sure if HD DVD can succeed when faced with upconverters and downloadable content, but because of the price of Blu-ray players, combined with the fact that some of the technology the BDA promised still isn't available, he doesn't see how Sony can come out on top of this one. While his reasons are true, we're not buying just yet. Besides, this is the same guy who's been predicting the death of Apple since 1995.[Via Digital Media Thoughts]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Devils Advocate @ Aug 28th 2007 3:52PM
This is the same guy who claimed that Walmart had declared HD-DVD the victor by reporting that Walmart had made a deal to sell 2 million chinese players while it had been proven false the day earlier. The vibe I gather from the tone of his articles is that he has never believed in blu-ray and will always use what is against bluray and often ignores what works in blurays favor. At least thats how I see it. Im sure an HD-DVD supporter will say he is the worlds greatest analyst.
Mitch @ Aug 28th 2007 4:00PM
Rob Enderle is a paid hack who has been pushing HD DVD from the very start.
He has also been anti-Apple and Mac for years. He has absolutely no credibility and it is a shame you are giving him a forum at Engadget!!!
This guys is a loser
Anthony @ Aug 28th 2007 3:49PM
His point fails at being unbiased.
There has been promises unkept on both sides of the fence.
Blu-Ray will be around whether they win the
format war or not.It's simple.Blu-Ray disks allow more content.Thus gaming will benefit,and since there's BD-RE I can watch Heroes Season 1 on a blu-ray player.
domerdel @ Aug 28th 2007 3:57PM
Here's my 2 cents on this whole thing. The guy is definitely blowing things out of proportion, and I myself am not insecure about that. What's insecure is the fact that it's Public Media, and that can be damaging to the average joes out there.
A lot of people think the PS3 sales are so sluggish and it's one of the worst launched consoles... Bare in mind, based on July's sales totals from time on release date, the PS3 has sold almost 4.32 million worldwide (and climbing). The diode for blu-ray at the time was $125 a pop... and about 5 months ago it dropped down to $8 a pop.
So, the cost of production for blu-ray hardware, and media is based on numbers almost a year old.
There is still a lot of good to come out of blu-ray. I will admit it did not have a stable launch, but with 1.1, is going to really determine the fate of Sony (and as production costs come down even more). I can't tell the difference in picture quality from HD-DVD to Blu-ray, but I can tell you I've enjoyed the high quality of sound output blu-ray has over HD-DVD.
About Dreamworks and Paramount... they did not see it like this Tech Analyst Rob Enderle... they saw dollar signs and that's why they went that route... it's strickly business.
In my honest opinion (in being a blu-ray supporter), Blu-ray is no where near losing, but has not won... almost (and as in, not exactly) can be said about HD-DVD in the exact opposite... it's extended life has brought the war's end, to a very later deadline....
Sean @ Aug 28th 2007 3:56PM
I am a HD-DVD supporter and this man is the worlds WORST analyst.
-dad
Siva @ Aug 28th 2007 4:01PM
Rob Enderle is nothing but a spokesperson for Microsoft. Read all his article and you will see how pro microsoft he is. As a mac user, I had no respect for him. As a PS3 owner, nothing has changed!
hothotdisco @ Aug 28th 2007 4:02PM
Has anyone told this guy that blu-ray will drop in price eventually? Like seriously, why does everyone think blu-ray will be expensive forever? Once blu-ray players get under $300 its pretty much over for HD-DVD because the only reason people buy HD-DVD still is the lower price. Cheap Funai blu-ray players anyone?
Xyzzy @ Aug 28th 2007 4:12PM
"Once blu-ray players get under $300 its pretty much over for HD-DVD because the only reason people buy HD-DVD still is the lower price."
Yeah, that and watching Universal, Paramount, Dreamworks, Weinstein, and many Warner movies that aren't available on BD...
HD DVD has said, from day one, that they will always be cheaper than Blu-Ray. So while you're dreaming of sub-$300 players, HD DVD already has near sub-$200 players. Since PQ and AQ are pretty much equal between the two formats, remind me again why people should buy BD (aside from exclusive studios which is what BD fans are complaining about Paramount/Dreamworks).
Dave @ Aug 28th 2007 4:16PM
I think the problem is, at least for me, is that I don't want to pay more than $250 for a player stuck in a format that may not win the format wars. However, I do want to see HD movies right now. I already have a 360--and, at least at the moment, there aren't any games for the PS3 that would compel me to buy one. I can buy a 360 add-on drive and get 8 free movies. I can view great HD content right now. I don't have to wait for 1.1 or 2.0 for Blu-Ray or for the prices to come down--and, because my cost is minimized, so is my risk. Furthermore, if Blu-Ray does win the format war, I can copy my HD-DVD media (at least the movie itself) to BD-R.
Also, it's incorrect to say that the only reason people buy HD-DVD is the lower price. Certainly, that helps. The lower cost of production is also one of the reasons Paramount switched to release HD-DVD exclusively. However, until 1.1, Blu-Ray can't even do PiP--and HD-DVD can. Paramount also mentioned that they preferred working with HDi to working with BD-J--which is another reason they cited for their switch. Until 1.1, Blu-Ray doesn't allow for network connectivity--which is already mandatory for HD-DVD hardware (although you can, of course, watch movies without connecting to the Internet). You can take advantage of network-based extras on HD-DVD right now--with ALL HD-DVD players.
Blu-Ray is not better. It's interactive features are a moving target. It's not finished...and it's more expensive.
JB @ Aug 28th 2007 4:01PM
Do a search for this guy and you'll see where he's pulling this crap out of.
* He was and is a paid consultant for Microsoft.
* He's extremely anti-opensource.
* He's fond of making crazy "announcements" (i.e. Apple will die, Wal-mart rumors)
Why anyone still hires him to write is beyond me, although I wouldn't be surprised if he (like Paramount) is paid off.
mcloki @ Aug 28th 2007 4:12PM
Robert Enderle is a know Microsoft paid shill. The mac community has known about his "Tech Reporting" for years. The only way to get rid of him is to ignore him. He is paid to believe in HDDVD it's his job. And his tactics of writing "reports" and getting them linked to by unsuspecting and non fact checking sites such as this one just make his job easier. On one hand HDBEAT wants to report this because it's news. On the other, Everyone would be better server if HDBEAT ignored some alleged sources of "information" for the betterment of their readers. It's a tough row to hoe, HDBEAT. What do you do, Promote the well being of your readers, or promote the fanboy forum war that will probably ensue to get hits and page views to show your advertisers. I hope it's the interest of your readership that has you motivated or next we'll be seeing Paul Thurrot being Quoted in these pages.
domerdel @ Aug 28th 2007 4:06PM
Hey Ben,
I really think you need to change the headline:
"Abnoxious Tech analyst says Blu-ray will lose"
andyg8180 @ Aug 28th 2007 4:23PM
I dont want to hear crap from this Rob Enderle guy... It seems like he chooses the losing team as the winner... He's that jinxed fan at a baseball game... You cant bring him anywhere...
Hey engadgetHD... I subscribe to the RSS feeds for better stuff than this... C'mon guys.... Upconvert issues??? WTF, they upconvert just fine... DLC, well, im not gonna touch that one, but jeezus... First we get ding dong blu ray advocate saying Netflix is FOS, now we get this guy quoting a retard tech analyst...
ANALYSTS GET RICH FROM SPEWING RETARD NONSENSE THAT RETARDS JUST EAT UP!!!
lets get some better articcles moving... I dont mind if its biased, but MAKE A FRIGGIN POINT!!!
I love HD-DVD with a passion, but theres probably going to be a middle ground once these players get dirt cheap... If they get to $200 each, i'll buy both players and continute renting from NetFlix... SCREW BLOCKBUSTER!
Ben Drawbaugh @ Aug 28th 2007 4:24PM
tips@engadgethd.com
Raj @ Aug 28th 2007 4:39PM
I want this format war over just like the next guy. I thought SONY was doing good, that is until last few weeks...now SONY needs to wake up and smell the freaking coffee...wait and see will kill their advantage and both formats will be there forever...nooooo
1. Get some exclusives - How about NetFlix...once they have an exclusive on majority of rental market (both BB and NF) they have got something...
2. Reduce the price of the player...currently there is almost 100% premium for BR player over HD player
3. Make inroads in the computer market with players and burners...
Do something and end this darn war!
Dave @ Aug 28th 2007 4:57PM
I haven't invested too much yet--so I would switch if Blu-Ray won...eventually. But there won't be a 2.0-capable player until who knows when. Now it looks as if there won't even be a 1.1-capable stand-alone player until Q2 2008. Who wants to invest in expensive hardware that's using a specification that doesn't allow the user to take full advantage of all the upcoming extra features? By the time there's cheap hardware that's 2.0-compatible, I'll be on my second HDTV. I'd rather not wait.
Ryan @ Aug 28th 2007 5:04PM
Funny, another analyst just came out and said the opposite.
http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/10813.cfm
While I don't completely agree with his assumptions, the Blu-Ray format still has representation in nearly 80% of the movie studio market share. So from a supply side there are still elements favoring Blu-Ray. On the demand side, I think cheap HD-DVD players ($100+ cheaper than Blu-Ray) are nothing to sneeze at. I broke down the market share and wrote some add'l commentary here: http://mediatrending.com/2007/08/28/blu-ray-still-the-predicted-winner/
Lakeonaut @ Aug 28th 2007 5:13PM
He is dead wrong. Upscaling DVD players are not going to replace 1080p players. They will never match 1080p players on image quality.
To my knowledge, downloads are highly compressed with worse image quality than Blu & HD-DVD. Furthermore, internet connections fast enough to download in reasonable times are expensive.
People have 1080p televisions today and want 1080p content today, not upscaled DVDs or compressed downloads.
Cam @ Aug 28th 2007 5:26PM
At the risk of sounding extreme, here are a few analogies:
HD DVD : BluRay :: VHS : Betamax
HD DVD : BluRay :: iPod : Minidisc
HD DVD : BluRay :: .mp3 : .atrac
HD DVD : BluRay :: .mp3 : SACD
HD DVD : BluRay :: DVD : UMD
HD DVD : BluRay :: CF : memory stick
...look at the track record, you figure it out. Some may not completely fail, but they sure as hell don't "win out"
Jon @ Aug 28th 2007 6:49PM
"At the risk of sounding extreme, here are a few analogies:
HD DVD : BluRay :: VHS : Betamax
HD DVD : BluRay :: iPod : Minidisc
HD DVD : BluRay :: .mp3 : .atrac
HD DVD : BluRay :: .mp3 : SACD
HD DVD : BluRay :: DVD : UMD
HD DVD : BluRay :: CF : memory stick
...look at the track record, you figure it out. Some may not completely fail, but they sure as hell don't "win out"
Wow someone needs to get educated ("Cam").
Yes VHS won over Betamax
and .mp3 won over .atrac
but...
-MiniDisc came out in 1992, Way before Ipod was even thought of to even compete!
-SACD was supposed to be the next step after CD for music, never was it in competition over MP3's
-UMD was a format for the PSP not as a replacement over DVD
-And Memory Stick is more alive and well then CF, and actually the majority of the market has SD and Memory Stick as options, NOT CF
Get your facts straight. Im not saying that Blu-ray will win (hopefully it does) but the "facts" that you posted are out of context. HD-DVD is kinda like Betamax was to VHS. Sony made the Betamax and made it a "closed" format to everyone but themselves. Now learning from their mistake they took the industry into account and made a format that everyone will benefit from. Now Toshiba is the one with a format that is "closed" in a sense. Its still open to the industry, but it doesnt improve from the format its supposed to replace, besides storage space.
anthony @ Aug 29th 2007 8:35AM
Saying UMD was a failure is like saying Game Boy Cartridges were a failure.
It's only purpose was for a movie playback on a game console.
LOL iPod is only good because of user interface.Check out any iRiver player.Sound quality is far superior.
I don't think you did too well on the English part of your SAT.
jake @ Aug 28th 2007 5:44PM
here is an anology for those people hanging on the fence.
VHS : DVD
HD-DVD : Blu-ray
hope this helpz
pnzrfckr @ Aug 28th 2007 6:10PM
From his lips to God's ear, he speaks only the truth.
Jake 2.0 @ Aug 28th 2007 6:45PM
Sorry for my lesser model's "anology". That model was discontinued for logic problems.
Xyzzy @ Aug 28th 2007 7:10PM
"Its still open to the industry, but it doesnt improve from the format its supposed to replace, besides storage space."
Care to explain how you think BD does?
They both have the same PQ... Both have the same AQ.... (in general, some better, some worse). HD DVD has more interactive features, online ability, PiP, and BD has... A fancy name?
How is BD evolutionary and HD DVD not?
Cam @ Aug 28th 2007 9:43PM
aww crap, I had this huge response typed out and my browser jacked up...
anyway, yeah, the analogies weren't perfect, I put the disclaimer that they were extreme, whatever
=D
MacGuru @ Aug 28th 2007 6:50PM
Another so called analist, Rob Enderle is a MORON.
Nothing he writes is analyzed. It's more subsidized by corporations, so if Sony would pay hime, all of the sudden it would be blu-ray that is winning.
Rob Enderle is a waste of time.
Tim @ Aug 28th 2007 9:01PM
I liken the situation to DVD-R vs DVD+R
Once more universal players come onto the market, as was the case with DVD burners, it won't matter at all. You just buy the content you want to watch, doesn't matter what format. Let them both live.
The Aggie CEO™ @ Aug 28th 2007 9:28PM
thats the same thing I keep saying..........
I mean sure I like BD because it has MORE room for storage amongst other things and as soon as the drives drop below $200 for the BD-RE I'm going to get one so I can have backups of my harddrives........and when the 100GB disc come out in a few years I'm REALLY gonna enjoy those.........
but this is all a minute "war" because mutilblue players are going to shut all you hardcore fanboys up...........because I'm willing to bet the HD-DVD/Blu-ray player will be as cheap as DVD-Recorders next summer........and slowly after the formats will merge causing you clowns to all lose face..........
Smee @ Aug 28th 2007 9:43PM
I don't think engadgetbd will ever think blown ray will fail, too many one eyed BD fanboys here
JBDragon @ Aug 29th 2007 12:44AM
From what I read it costs $2 to make a Blu-Ray Disc and .50 cents to make a HD DVD! I think that's part of the Reason for Dreamworks and Paramount to make the switch to HD DVD Exclusive. It's more money for them. That's 4 HD DVD's to every Blu-Ray Disc. Bigger Profit margin. That adds up fast. People say they where paid off. Will maybe it's true, maybe it's NOT, but I do know that most of the studio's that support Blu-Ray are already SONY OWNED!!! I sure don't see MS or Toshiba owning any Movie Studio's. If anything that's quite UNFAIR. If Sony didn't own any of them, they may have never been a war, or SONY would have done the same and PAID a studio or two off. Who knows, they may have already done that long ago with FOX and Disney for all I know.
Blu-Ray 1.1 Players won't even be released until NEXT YEAR!!! Just to do most of the things HD DVD ALREADY does and has done since day 1. HD DVD was a finished Product. Blu-Ray was rushed out into the marketplace before it was even finished. The PS3 was release 6 months late as it was, and if they waited for Blu-Ray to be ready, it wouldn't even be out yet. WAR would have been over before it started. HDi for HD DVD also is far easier to program then BD-J on Blu-Ray.
Other then that Extra 20 gig's of space, what does Blu-Ray do better then HD DVD? Oh the Double Copy Protection, and Region Encoding. Ya, Blu-Ray does that better since HD DVD has neither of those. Many of those Supposedly Blu-Ray Only Movie Releases,.. Well guess what,.. You can buy them on HD DVD out of the Country and they play just fine because HD DVD doesn't have Region Encoding!
HD DVD Vs. Blu-Ray is a little different from the DVD+ Vs DVD- WAR. Both DVD formats were Similar. Both DVD formats played on most Stand alone DVD players. Some early Stand alone players early on had problems with one or the other, but it didn't last. It was a cheap process to come out with Dual player formats.
HD DVD and BLu-Ray is different. Sure they both are HD players, and both use a Blue Laser, but it ends there. Disc Data is placed on the disc differently, and the track lay out is not the same. They each play disc's differently, one uses HDi, the other BD-J. This is why Dual Format players are so much money. It's almost cheaper to just buy 2 separate players then a Combo player. Keeping both formats around isn't a solution. It would just kill both formats as people would need Combo players for HD Disc's to take off, and those players aren't going to drop down in price very quickly.
Blu-Ray is not a finished Product, as such I say it should just DIE now before it's to late. The 20 extra gig's of space has shown ZERO Advantage. Personally I can't see why anyone would LIKE Blu-Ray.
Blu-Ray- Positives
#1. 20 Extra Gig's of Space.
Blu-Ray Negatives.
#1. Not a finished Product. Basically still in BETA, Version 1.1 won't even be released until next year.
#2. Double the Copy Protection with BD+
#3. Region Encoding
I can go on and on.
HD DVD - Positives
#1. A Finished product on DAY 1. All HD DVD players support the SAME Features which is more then Blu-Ray.
#2. Only a single Copy protection
#3. NO Region Encoding
#4. HDi, which is much easily to program then BD-J.
#5. Cheaper to make Disc's. $.50 cents a disc for HD DVD and $2 per disc for Blu-Ray. From what I've read.
#6. Cheaper Hardware
and I can go on and on.
HD DVD - Negatives
20 gig's of less space then Blu-Ray which has had ZERO effect. In fact there's more content on many HD DVD Disc's that have been released on both formats.
Devils Advocate @ Aug 29th 2007 1:51AM
20 gigs has had plenty of effect. Its unfortunate that Warner has to dumb down dual format releases.
Dont say that the 20 gigs isnt significant when Paramount was making claims that 30 gigs wasnt enough. Although they says its plenty now.
domerdel @ Aug 29th 2007 4:47PM
QUOTE: From what I read it costs $2 to make a Blu-Ray Disc and .50 cents to make a HD DVD! /QUOTE
WRONG! the margin is much closer...
DC5RK20A @ Aug 29th 2007 2:56AM
First off, not everyone cares about PiP capability or going online to see extra features. So your opinionated pluses and negs are just that opinions. I know I can give a rat's @$$ about any of that trash. Are you by chance HughJars on another message board, you sound exactly the same and spewing the same one-sided fluff?
Of all my 500+ legally purchased DVDs I own, I may have watched 3% of the special features. Of the 21 BDs I own, I have yet to watch the special features, I just don't care about it. I didn't buy the discs to watch extra shite, I bought it to watch a movie. Also that PiP thing would annoy the hell out of me, it would remind me of watching a movie with the director's comments on, hey director PHUCK OFF and let me enjoy the disc for what I bought it for, to WATCH the movie.
burkey @ Aug 29th 2007 8:05AM
Up next from Rob Enderle - "Why water is not really wet"
He's an idiot. You guys shouldn't be posting crap from a moron like this highly regarded in the industry as a complete idiot.
dobyblue @ Aug 29th 2007 8:08AM
Warner is not dumbing down dual format releases for long.
The upcoming "Return to House on Haunted Hill" will feature seamless branching on the Blu-ray Disc for the different versions of the film, but will not feature it on the HD DVD so it make be an extra disc.
This is good news from Warner, who are about to start joining Disney, Sony and Fox in showcasing the technical superiority of the Blu-ray format.
Cam @ Aug 29th 2007 11:28AM
HAHA...this is too funny. Thanks for taking me way too seriously guys!
I got a 780 on english, what did you get?
teej @ Aug 30th 2007 10:24AM
UMD is/was a failure though, and the reason is because the PSP, the UMD player, is still manufacturered. The format died long before the player itself died. In Sony's eyes, UMD should have lasted as long as the PSP generation or longer. That, my friend, is a failure.
mracca @ Aug 29th 2007 9:13AM
Has Blu-ray already lost?
-YES
Kevin Murphy @ Aug 29th 2007 6:38PM
Warner could decide the war tomorrow, either way. When they do the war is over, and until then -- not.
Mr_Fizzlepop @ Aug 29th 2007 10:03PM
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom082607/index.php
Week ending 8/19 Blu-ray is 71% of the Sales.
Blu-ray spins at 1.5 times HD DVD and because it does has a higher rate for Video and Audio quality.
HD DVD has almost a year of Losing Sales to make up for, and it hasn't stopped losing yet.
The players are cheaper and the Sales are still worse than ever.
nigel @ Aug 30th 2007 7:27AM
@ Mr_Wankelpop,
How about some facts instead of your vacant blu eyed stare, check out amazons latest results, HD DVD sales are cleaning up.
When you write here, you should try using some facts instead of that monkey shit you dribble!
nick @ Sep 2nd 2007 6:13PM
Rob Enderle is the same guy that predicted the SCO group would win against IBM. I wouldn't put too much faith in whatever this guy backs.
Michael Nash @ Nov 15th 2007 4:20PM
I disagree. Although it is still too soon to take the plunge, I feel history will repeat itself in this competition. Recall VHS vs Betamax -- Betamax produced a better picture and smaller cartridges, yet VHS still won out. Why is this? Manufacturing sponsers, and studio sponsers. At this time HD DVD only has microsoft and toshiba sponsering the manufacture of the players, while blu ray has sony, rca, philips -- and many others. The players are more expensive, but without millions of consumers taking the plunge and purchasing the hd dvd player and swaying the market, there stands no chance to succeed over blu ray, which already has the support of the studios and manufacturers. I already purchased a blu ray player, in the form of the Sony Playstation 3. For one it is one of the cheapest blu ray players on the market, and or another I enjoy playing video games, so even if blu ray loses out I still have the gaming station, web browser, cd player . . . best deal on the market if you ask me. Not to mention even if blu ray fails I can still purchase all the high definition blu ray movies already out at a discounted price. Microsoft made a big mistake in not incorporating the hd dvd player in with the 2nd gen xbox 360 consoles, that may have been enough to push hd dvd interest up.
Bottom line, HD DVD cannot succeed without manufacturing sponsors, and they cannot get manufacturing sponsors without a large number of consumers purchasing the HD DVD player. With the "stalemate" that is occuring now, it is only a matter of time before the couple of manufacturers and studios decide to switch to Blu Ray and 'fix' the market. If you must have an HD movie playback player now, invest in the PS3. Even if the Blu Ray fails, you still have a web browser, gaming station, cd/mp3 player, and remote media playback to a computer on the same network with windows media player.
If you must have an HD DVD player it is only around 200$ now for a toshiba (or 180$ if you already have an xbox 360 and can actually find one.)
Another problem to keep in mind, however, is the purchasing of HD DVD products. Blockbuster no longer carries HD DVD movies, and Wal Mart and Sams Club don't carrie the HD DVD player for the 360 (although they do carry the cheap 200$ toshiba player.)
There ARE dual players -- that play back both HD DVD and Blu Ray, however they are typically more expensive than buying both players separately. (upward of $1k.)
Hope this perspective helps! I will be happy to answer any questions anyone has, I have been doing lots of research on this subject.