The current state of the format war: no end in sight
by Ben Drawbaugh 
posted Jan 29th 2007 at 10:30PM
Despite what Blu-ray would have you believe the next generation home movie format war is far from over, in fact it is just getting started. Four months ago we laid out a list of tasks that each side would have to do to win. Blu-ray has arguably achieved 6 out of 8 of the tasks, while HD DVD has achieved 6 out of 9. What this means is that we still have a tie with no end in sight. Blu-ray's biggest blunder is still the lack of interactive content on their discs, the studios blame the authoring tools, Warner is rumored to be delaying certain titles on Blu-ray that are already available on HD DVD till the authoring tools are "mature". HD DVD's biggest challenge is still lack of content support and player support. The big wash are the consoles, while HD DVD sold an impressive number of Xbox360 add-on drives, Sony sold 4 times as many potential Blu-ray players. Whether you believe PS3 owners will buy Blu-ray movies or not, recently Blu-ray started to out sell HD DVD according to every indicator we have. But does this really matter? How many more movies would Blu-ray have to sell than HD DVD to win the war? A contact close to HD DVD tells us that studios selling both formats are turning a profit on both and as long as they continue to turn a profit they will continue to support both sides. This makes us wonder what Universal, Fox and Disney are thinking. Why would they choose to only support one side when they are losing money by leaving out the other side? We have tried to ask them, they haven't responded. If studios can make money on both sides and they all start to support both sides this war could go on forever, in fact the only chance of a end is if Universal starts making Blu-ray movies or Fox and Disney start to make HD DVDs (but not both). Until then most consumers will stay on the sidelines worried about missing their favorite movies and we will continue to watch the debate rage on.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Andrew @ Jan 29th 2007 11:06PM
I disagree with one of your points.
"If studios can make money on both sides and they all start to support both sides this war could go on forever, "
If that happens, we have no war. War indicates that one side will eventually be beaten and fall bloodily to the wayside.
Scott @ Jan 29th 2007 11:33PM
The war will end on January 1, 2008 when Universal announces support for blu-ray. You read it here first.
Andy @ Jan 30th 2007 12:43AM
^^^ LOL, The war will end when Disney announces support for HD DVD in June :P
Don't bank on stupid predictions, no one knows whats going to happen, not even the studios.
janus @ Jan 30th 2007 1:09AM
Blu Ray will be the clear winner. Want to know why? More studios. Period. Ok so Porn may go to HDDVD and lets say that none go to Blu Ray (hypothetically). You mean to tell me that families, the main component of American society (i.e., mainstream) will be defined by porn? I think not. Whaddya think parents will buy HDDVD and tell their kids they have to watch Disny movies on the old DVD player. I think not. We as a society give up what we want for our kids. If that means a couple more bucks so they can watch a Disney flick on HD then you better believe its gonna be done. Even if it means giving up porn. If you don't agree with that then you have some serious issues. Until Disney produces for HDDVD it is a slow sinking ship and nothing more. Besides look at all the BD players out there already (PS3) and only more to come. Porn will have to succumb to the BD wave and up the cash if they want in. Period. So al those other BS argumenst are a waste of time. Besides go to your nearest Best buy and see what's being sold. I was there just this weekend.
hmurchison @ Jan 30th 2007 1:37AM
Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah
Scott makes the first gaffe by assuming that Universal will deliver Blu-ray movies on Jan 1st of 2008 (which is possible) yet remains conspicuously silent about the same prospect happening with Fox/Disney/LGF. No studios has stated they are exclusive forever. They will go where the money goes.
Janus makes the same poorly constructed argument. That somehow studio support is etched in stone and Americans will indeed look for Disney but that's not the biggest factor right now. It's getting millions of players into peoples homes. Sony is doing this with the PS3 and Toshiba is doing it with a low cost assault on the home this year. Disney's Robert Iger has already stated that he thought Disney would eventually support both and I think he still feels this way.
Best Buy anecdotal evidence is weak. I've heard HD DVD fans with their own BB stories about sales.
Engadget HD is right on this one. There is simply no winner in sight and we can all huff and puff about what we think is going to happen but clearly the war isn't going to end anytime soon.
pliepl @ Jan 30th 2007 6:14AM
If that happens, we have no war. War indicates that one side will eventually be beaten and fall bloodily to the wayside.
Actually, there would still be a war, just a MUCH longer and more drawn out war than it already is.
Ok so Porn may go to HDDVD and lets say that none go to Blu Ray (hypothetically). You mean to tell me that families, the main component of American society (i.e., mainstream) will be defined by porn? I think not.
That exact thing happened in the 80s. The porn industry is a lot more mainstream than people are willing to admit. Sex sells and you would have to be blind (literally) to not see that. Whether or not pornography will propel one of the formats is still debatable and yet to be seen. Im sure at the time of vhs/betamax, it wasnt till after the format war had ended that people had an idea of what had happen. It wont be until this format war is over with till we have an idea of what were the factors in its course.
Whaddya think parents will buy HDDVD and tell their kids they have to watch Disny movies on the old DVD player. I think not. We as a society give up what we want for our kids. If that means a couple more bucks so they can watch a Disney flick on HD then you better believe its gonna be done.
Youre not thinking in realistic terms. Kids (and a large majority of adults for that matter) are satisfied as it is with MP3s and DVDs. To say or suggest that kids are the one to demand to see their favorite Disney films in HD is a stretch. Youre beginning to sound like a BDA spokesperson.
Even if it means giving up porn. If you don't agree with that then you have some serious issues.
More accurately, just doesnt agree with you.
Until Disney produces for HDDVD it is a slow sinking ship and nothing more. Besides look at all the BD players out there already (PS3) and only more to come.
PS3 is a moot point until software increases parallel the rate of hardware increases.
Porn will have to succumb to the BD wave and up the cash if they want in. Period.
Or they could just go with the format that satisfies their needs.
So al those other BS argumenst are a waste of time. Besides go to your nearest Best buy and see what's being sold. I was there just this weekend.
Whats being sold and what is being hidden are two separate things. Best Buy is not exactly the best example to use since its view is skewed towards one format when they should be neutral. (To use your example of whats being sold) is one to deduce that PS3 (and by association Blu ray) is not selling well (as there seems to be the same display mountain of consoles in some Best Buy stores week after week)?
Mike @ Jan 30th 2007 6:45AM
Familys are going to do what saves money so they can provide more for their family. This fall the HD DVD player will prob be around $250 and the Blu Ray might be down to $550.
I don't think my 3 yr old cares if Mickey or Aladen is in 480 lines or 1080...but what ever extra boost the upconverting does to the 480 lines DVD willbe more then enough.
Ryan J. @ Jan 30th 2007 7:13AM
Mike is right. The landscape could be dramatically different by the end of this year with HD DVD players most likely being below $299. HD DVD stand alone players are currently outselling Blu-Ray stand alone players 5 to 1. I know more people who have a movie player in their home with no Playstation, so I would expect movie players to eventually make up the larger portion of sales. Not everyone buys PS3 for Blu-Ray movies. We'll wait and see.
DEM @ Jan 30th 2007 7:37AM
There is a good reason why Disney hasn't decided to support HD DVD... Choose to believe me or not, but a friend of mine at one of the studios that supports HD DVD tells me that Sony "paid" Disney to support their format only...
Marty @ Jan 30th 2007 8:00AM
"Sony "paid" Disney to support their format only..."
Probably the same with FOX...
Is there any other clear reason why they (Fox & Disney) support BD?
Maybe:
- lower authoring&duplication costs? NOT!
- video/audio quality&interactive issues? NOT!
- they simply love SONY, main competitor in film industry? NOT!
Ben @ Jan 30th 2007 8:05AM
Marty you forgot one.
Sick of paying the DVD forum licensing fees so decided to start new format where you pay yourself fees.
Don't forget Toshiba owns the rights to DVD and HD DVD, BDA is owned by many companies including Disney and Fox.
Mike @ Jan 30th 2007 8:42AM
Is Disney one of the studios using HD DVD in Europe?
What The @ Jan 30th 2007 8:51AM
Blu-Ray is selling 3:1 versus HD-DVD according to retail sales numbers provided to insiders. Its just a matter of time till sales are 5:1 and at that point, universal will no longer keep up the charade and we'll have the war over. Dont get it twisted. THE WAR IS ALREADY OVER. Blu-Ray has won.
pkr @ Jan 30th 2007 9:11AM
Blu-Ray can't win as long as there is HD DVD only content. Until all the studios fully support Blu-Ray its not going to win. Sony's arrogance again perpetuates the entire process. They shun the porn industry and they choose a junk format for interactivity just to try to "Stick it to Microsoft." Sure with the PS3, blue-ray will kill HD-DVD in sales for a few years, but your average movie watcher in the long run is not going to be buying a ps3 to watch movies. In the end we'll all have Hybrid players imo...
Mike @ Jan 30th 2007 9:13AM
When a customer walks into the store...there isn't a sign that says who is selling more movies...it has the price.
HD-DVD will be the 1st to be less then $399, $299, $249 and $199...all magical numbers to middle class consumers. And once the snowball starts rolling, there will be no stopping HD DVD.
Smeagol @ Jan 30th 2007 9:49AM
The tide is already turning in terms of availble content; BD will surpass HD-DVD in two weeks, and there will be no looking back. Universal simply cannot sustain the HD-DVD format.
The only reason stand-alone hd-DVD players are cheap is that Toshiba sells them for a loss. If they were actually making money off them, they would be priced higher. Other manufacteurs arnet willing to take losses.. which is why BD players are priced higher and Toshiba is the only one making stand-alone players.
There are still no PC HD-DVD burners out there and the capacity is 40% less than BD. Once BD starts taking over the PC market.. it would make no sense to have two formats for HD content.
Ryan J. @ Jan 30th 2007 10:02AM
Whoa! Where are you getting your numbers from? It's A LOT closer than that. Here are the facts that I have: http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/
zombieflanders @ Jan 30th 2007 10:16AM
Ryan: The 3:1 numbers for Blu-ray come from Videoscan Magazine, which is considered one of the best sources for official sales info. The site you listed has a history of skewing charts to make HD DVD look good, and even Amazon themeselves says that their rankings mean absolutely nothing. They suggest using the numbers from distributors, which we are seeing in Videoscan.
Stephen @ Jan 30th 2007 12:09PM
zombieflanders, has anyone published cumulative sales figures? HD-DVD has been out longer than Blu-Ray, it might be 3:1 for Blu-Ray now but what has it been to date? Is there any indication that for new DVD releases, Blu-Ray is comprehensively outselling HD-DVD? Or is this a case of most HD-DVD owners having already bought the DVDs that Blu-Ray owners can only buy now?
I'm still sitting this one out for now. I'd expected to go Blu-Ray, but the head start and cheaper players for HD-DVD have made me wait and see. It'd take at least a couple more months of 3:1 to Blu-Ray before I change my mind.
Bryan J Busch @ Jan 30th 2007 11:22AM
You misspelled "losing" here:
Why would they choose to only support one side when they are loosing money by leaving out the other side?
Dave @ Jan 30th 2007 11:09AM
Look people, all hd dvd owners are zealot Sony haters. Maybe they are right, Sony may be bad for them, but they wont help the format to win. There are some xBox owners too though but only in USA.
USA is no more the island of HD DVD, even there Blu-ray outsells hd dvd 2:1 now 10:1 tomorrow.
Japan is 100% Blu, Asia and Europe are places that the addon will not have big success and places free of Sony hates.
Game over hd dvd! :D
Robert @ Jan 30th 2007 11:43AM
Europe will almost certainly go HD DVD, it is the opposite of the way it is here. Almost every production studio is releasing in HD DVD, not Blu-ray. Most of the titles that are Blu-ray only here are being released in HD DVD there (if you are desperate and will pay $40 a title, shop there) and like here the players are still cheaper. It looks as though Blu-ray will win in the US, but Europe and Japan are far from decided and it doesn't look good for them. Japan is actually closer to 50/50, they too offer many more titles in HD DVD than we get here although it isn't as slanted as in Europe.
Fredster @ Jan 30th 2007 12:01PM
Sure, we all really LOVE Sony here in Europe, NOT! I can't agree with your comment, sorry.
zombieflanders @ Jan 30th 2007 12:22PM
Those are monthly numbers.
Alex @ Jan 30th 2007 12:28PM
of course it is months and Dave is still a bent-over Sony fanboy. No matter what side you are on, you have to be a complete moron to think HD-DVD would be able to keep the lead on sales with far less content. That doesn't mean it will lose though, Sony has proven time and again it can and will drop the ball.
Tim @ Jan 30th 2007 2:40PM
Who cares? Just stop making me and us, the average consumers wait in fear of wasting our money on a format that doesn't survive. Either one will look just fine for 99.9% of the population. I can't tell you how many people I've heard that from.
Xyzzy @ Jan 30th 2007 5:44PM
"Either one will look just fine for 99.9% of the population."
And that's the key right there! Both formats (aside from the earlier BD titles which looked like crap) look the same (ignoring the fact that almost no BD disks have good audio compared to HD-DVD). So why should I pay $1000 for a player (sorry, the PS3 isn't a player, it's a game machine) when a $400 player works just as well? The DVD Forum seems to have done well so far, so why should I support the company that's doing an end around? So I can have an extra 20 gigs of space on my video disk, that I don't really care about because I just want to watch a movie? Answer: I don't want it and I wish Sony would stop trying to shove BD down my throat with their PS3 ploy (not to mention the extra copy protection that makes it HARDER for me as a user to make copies of movies to share within my own home).
Tim @ Jan 31st 2007 2:54AM
Laser Disc also thrived in Japan. Look how far that went.
Daniel @ Jan 30th 2007 9:41PM
Everyone is so funny with thier own sets of statistics. This format war sucks, and I am almost mad at myself for becoming such an early adopter for fear of buying a losing format. But that argument can be made for both sides, so what the hell. I hope it is over soon, and I hope I chose the right side (pretty confident I did), and if I didn't, I guess it won't be that bad. Anyways, Blu-ray all the way!!
twysted @ Feb 5th 2007 8:24PM
"Porn will have to succumb to the BD wave and up the cash if they want in. Period."
Ummm, not so "period"...
"The multibillion-dollar industry releases about 11,000 titles on DVD each year, giving it tremendous power to sway the battle between two groups of studios and technology companies competing to set standards for the next generation."
11,000 titles on DVD, EACH YEAR. Eleven THOUSAND titles. Per year. According to some numbers I saw at AVS the biggest legit studio out there only has a little over 3,000 titles available, TOTAL. Not for a year, for as long as they've been making movies. I think I can say with some confidence that eleven thousand a year is a couple more than Disney. Might even be more than the entire "family" movie industry produces in a year combined? And how many copies of each?
"The pornography industry, which generates an estimated $57 billion in annual revenue worldwide, has always been a fast leader when it comes to the use of new technology, according to analysts."
$57 BILLION in annual revenue...
So, 11,000 titles per year (that need to be burned onto something for distribution), and the industry is generating $57 BILLION in annual revenue?
Now, who can live without who? That sounds like a whole bunch of business that somebody out there will want. They can afford to choose whichever format works best for them. And their choice will pretty much guarantee that the format survives, even if it doesn't prosper.
Personally, I don't care what format porn chooses, I have never watched a porn DVD and don't intend to start now. BUT, you can't discount their impact on the technology market. What they choose WILL matter. Perhaps not to you or me, but it darn sure will matter to whoever they are buying the media from to put all those movies on!
As for player numbers. Anyone have any idea what they might be if we discount both the PS3 and 360 addon?
It should be fairly obvious by now, to anyone that's been paying attention, that Sony's primary intention with PS3 is the distribution of Blu Ray players/movies, not video games.
Zixxer @ Feb 25th 2007 6:00AM
You people want to know what a trend is? More porn is/was available on VHS than DVD ever will have. Why? Downloadable porn. With the rise in broadband internet, people are willing to "wait" for a download. They don't have to speak to a cashier. There's no shipping cost. And, 60% of porn is available for downloading only. This trend of downloading porn is growing with incredible strength too. With that in mind, don't expect porn to sway this hd format war like it did with vhs vs beta.
Sub @ Mar 4th 2007 10:57AM
Being a proud owner of both BD and HD DVD, i would like to point out a few things
a. This is not yet a full scale war where both formats are competing on equal terrain viz. pricing and performance. It will take a long time for pricing and performance levels for each to come to the same level for the average Joe consumer to actually decide. Case in point : When an average person goes into a shop to buy something, they consider both the costs upfront and the ongoing costs. Here in australia, HD DVD does not have a strong footing because of BD's strong marketing campaign. Strategy that could be used by BD right now would be to lower the price of the discs compared to HD DVD and show that Total Cost over time would be lower for BD and that would really appeal to the customers.
b. It is not really a war because like it or not, HD is still not mainstream yet(people will debate over this but not everyone has the equipment to reap the full benefits of HD) It is still a niche market, probably could be considered to be an enthusiasts market ( Note am talking worldwide, not just the US. I am aware that HD penetration is the US is relatively higher than the rest of the world) Until the accompanying equipment ownership comes to a certain standard, these sales figures would have no effect because it would only reflect the buying patterns of a small minority ( note: am talking worldwide)
VHS and BetaMax had a different kind of war because right from day one itself there were not that many variables involved except for pricing and support. Hence it was more clear cut and short lived. But in this case, there are just too many factors involved to declare a clear winner and it is too early because of the sheer number of variables ( industry support, availability, pricing, co-requisites etc)
So lets wait it out because this will take a long time and there will be clear signs as to who will come out on top -- the video rental stores. As soon as the big video rental stores start stocking obscene amounts of one format, it will be a sign that the format war is on its way to be resolved.