Sure, it's no surprise to see bleeding-edge tech plummet in price soon after the initial craze is over, but Sony NEC Optiarc is estimating that Blu-ray disc drive prices will "drop 50 percent from current levels amid
aggressive development" by other manufacturers. Shuji Minami -- the product business group's general manager -- is suggesting that increased production by alternative manufacturers will open up the
currently tight supply line. We've heard Sony
blaming the overwhelming shortage of Blu-ray components for its Playstation 3 supply
quandaries, and we've assumed the inclusion of such a drive somewhat justifies (or
not) the staggeringly high pricetag, but we can't say we're sharoosed that prices will be dramatically lower in just over 12 months. Regardless, the firm is touting Window's forthcoming
Vista operating system as encouragement for more producers to hop on the (nearly empty) bandwagon, so if you're cool with holding out on (
questionably beneficial)
1080p flicks for another year or so, you'll (unsurprisingly) find yourself a lot richer for it. But for you
European blokes who'll be suffering the same launch day
madness that we're still surviving next year, we highly doubt Sony will cut you any slack, especially considering how much
dough they're already losing.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
IseWise @ Nov 18th 2006 6:27PM
For right now the cheapest Blu-Ray player is the PS3, limited yes, but cheaper than stand alone players.
Can we get a story about the sales of HD DVD players compared to Blu-Ray players? I think the PS3 launch is really going to hurt HD DVD. Look at about how many PS3's have been sold in a weeks time: http://nexgenwars.com/
pliepl @ Nov 18th 2006 6:53PM
Halved by 2008 is a little bit disappointing theyre pretty much saying that itll take them a year to get to TODAYS HDDVD prices. So is the Blu-ray camp just praying that HDDVD prices stay at the half grand mark? With all the manufacture support that the Blu-ray side is always touting shouldnt it be competitive today
IseWise,
Technically yes it is the cheapest Blu-ray player, but in practicality, the Samsung unit is probably more realistic considering that anyone who wants a PS3 will either have to jump through hoops for a chance at ownership or cough up to 2 grand for it on ebay.
If those numbers are accurate and current, Im kind of disappointed. Shouldnt that be closer to million?
Dont forget that the X360 HDDVD drive is also out. Every PS3 is not necessarily a score for Blu-ray (its only a potential score) while every X360 HDDVD drive is a score for HDDVD (rather theyre used with the X360 or with a standard computer like some have figured out).
IseWise @ Nov 18th 2006 7:08PM
I don't see how you can say that every PS3 is not a score for Blu-Ray, I believe all the launch consoles came w/ Talladega Night: The Ballad of Rick Bobby, and lets not forget that every game is on a Blu-ray disc. Recently everyone has been talking about the games for the PS3 but it is a functionally Blu-Ray player, and people will realize this and start buying Blu-Ray movies. As for the HD DVD add on for the Xbox 360, first of all add ons have never gone well for consoles, and as far I as I know no one is camping out to get one of those, plus I'm sure that the PS3 sales are killing the HD DVD add on sales.
pliepl @ Nov 18th 2006 7:32PM
I don't see how you can say that every PS3 is not a score for Blu-Ray, I believe all the launch consoles came w/ Talladega Night: The Ballad of Rick Bobby, and lets not forget that every game is on a Blu-ray disc.
The reason every PS3 sale is a potential score for Blu-ray is not everyone that buys a PS3 is buying it with movie playback as the primary use, its a game machine first and foremost.
On the other hand, everyone that buys the X360 HDDVD add-on is a score since its usage intent is obviously clear.
Recently everyone has been talking about the games for the PS3 but it is a functionally Blu-Ray player, and people will realize this and start buying Blu-Ray movies.
Time will only tell, its still primarily a game machine.
As for the HD DVD add on for the Xbox 360, first of all add ons have never gone well for consoles, and as far I as I know no one is camping out to get one of those, plus I'm sure that the PS3 sales are killing the HD DVD add on sales.
Add-on to add features to the game aspect has never worked well in the past, this is something different.
Just like people are camping out to buy a PS3 Blu-ray movie player? Exactly, they camped out to turn a profit or are so delusional that they must be the first to have the latest GAME machine.
If youre sure, would you mind providing those sales figures for the two? I wasnt aware that the X360 drive was shipping already.
IseWise @ Nov 19th 2006 2:42AM
"..potential score for Blu-ray is not everyone that buys a PS3 is buying it with movie playback as the primary use, its a game machine first and foremost."
They don't have to watch movies for it to be a score for the Blu-camp, all the games are on Blu-ray. Blu-Ray is a format not restricted to just movie content.
People don't have to watch a single Blu-Ray movie on their PS3. But all the games for the PS3 are on Blu-Ray discs. Buying Blu-Ray dics = score for the Blu-Ray camp.
"...turn a profit or are so delusional that they must be the first to have the latest GAME machine."
So being a fan of games and wanting to play new games is being delusional? Sure alot of PS3's being sold on ebay, but guess what, someone will eventually end up w/ a PS3, either at $599 or $3,500.
And actually the Xbox HD DVD drives are shipping.
http://www.ebgames.com/product.asp?product%5Fid=802558
I know all you guys have probably pegged me as a Sony fanboy, but I own a Xbox 360 that I bought at launch and love it. Like I originally said in my first post in, I just cant think that the HD DVD group is happy about PS3 being sold out around the world. The Playstation 3 is the first device to really represent Blu-Ray as a FORMAT. It represents one of the most common things a format does, a medium to storage data, either it be a game or a movie. And afterall its called a Format War not a Movie Format War, although the movie studios hold the most weight in war, selling thousands of PS3's and Blu-Ray disc has got to be good move. If you were a studio, do you release your movie on a format that has a small share in the market or a large share in the market. The PS3 with out a doubt will continue to sell out and therefore be creating a big share in the market for Blu-Ray. And that really what its all about, appealing to the majority.
hmurchison @ Nov 18th 2006 8:05PM
Isewise
Try comparing Apple's to Apples and being a bit more current. The Xbox add on has sold out in most areas. Referencing that add ons don't do well makes little sense when the add on peaked at #1 on Amazon's best seller list. Clearly there's a market for console owners who want to watch movies. We'll need to wait for the data of just how many people care on the PS3 side. Many will...many won't.
pliepl @ Nov 19th 2006 11:34AM
IseWise,
They don't have to watch movies for it to be a score for the Blu-camp, all the games are on Blu-ray. Blu-Ray is a format not restricted to just movie content.
People don't have to watch a single Blu-Ray movie on their PS3. But all the games for the PS3 are on Blu-Ray discs. Buying Blu-Ray dics = score for the Blu-Ray camp.
When it comes to the next movie format it is very relevant. The core of the debate is movie playback. Sonys decision to use the Blu-ray format for PS3 games isnt relevant. Thats the equivalent of saying that since Microsoft decided to published using DVDs, the X360 games adds to the overall DVD movie count for each title. Obviously the games wont work on regular DVD players.
Jerry (above) makes many good points.
So being a fan of games and wanting to play new games is being delusional? Sure alot of PS3's being sold on ebay, but guess what, someone will eventually end up w/ a PS3, either at $599 or $3,500.
Being a fan of games and wanting to play new games isnt delusional, though what some of those fanatics were doing on launch day and the days and week coming up to is.
The ones who waited in line to buy it for resale purposes, I can actually understand their reasoning. On the other hand, the ones who did and were intending to keep theirs or the ones who bought theirs from a resale at 3-4+ times the retail, thats something I dont understand. Considering the titles released on launch, thats seems like blind faith and submission to propaganda and hype.
And actually the Xbox HD DVD drives are shipping.
Good, now lets see that data pertaining to your reasoning for saying that PS3 sales are killing the sale of the HDDVD add on.
I know all you guys have probably pegged me as a Sony fanboy, but I own a Xbox 360 that I bought at launch and love it. Like I originally said in my first post in, I just cant think that the HD DVD group is happy about PS3 being sold out around the world. The Playstation 3 is the first device to really represent Blu-Ray as a FORMAT. It represents one of the most common things a format does, a medium to storage data, either it be a game or a movie. And afterall its called a Format War not a Movie Format War, although the movie studios hold the most weight in war, selling thousands of PS3's and Blu-Ray disc has got to be good move. If you were a studio, do you release your movie on a format that has a small share in the market or a large share in the market.
The PS3 has yet to prove itself. PS3 sales wont help Blu-ray unless it gives a significant boost with blu-ray movies, more so than the X360 drive will for HDDVD movies. Otherwise its a draw or worst for PS3s contribution to Blu-ray. Everyone on the Blu-ray side seems to have omitted the existence of HDDVD drive. It exists and is in direct competition with the PS3s Blu-ray playback feature.
Movie studios will look at movie sales more so than the sales of consoles. If movies are sitting on the shelves (regardless of how many consoles are out there), it doesnt help. Lets not forget that when this format war began, only one studio intended to release on HDDVD, look at where we are today. More and more studios are deciding that its in their best interest to support both because they can see where the money is; I dont blame them.
The site you posted above already shows that the Wii console sales have already surpassed those of the PS3. Should be an interesting war on the console end.
The PS3 with out a doubt will continue to sell out and therefore be creating a big share in the market for Blu-Ray. And that really what its all about, appealing to the majority.
Only the users who chose to actively utilize their PS3 as a movie playback device can be considered adding to the market for Blu-ray movies. I would hardly consider that a majority. As far as the movie format is concerned, the HDDVD format appeals more so to the majority than the Blu-ray format. If you consider the entry price.
Jerry @ Nov 19th 2006 3:19AM
To say this is a format war and not a movie format war is foolish. Who cares is PS3 games come of Bluray? Is they came on holigraphic cubes it wouldn't matter they still can only be played on the PS3. So PS3 pushing PS3 games for use only on the PS3 will not help the Bluray camp.
Now the PS3 will help Bluray movies sales some. The real question is how much. I personally don't think it will be the silver bullet. Looks like with the new reduced # Sony will have less than 400K PS3 available by end of the year. Toshiba has sold out of it's initial build of players (about 70K) and projects total sales of about 200K units by end of the year. Add in another 50K for clones and PC w/ HD-DVD so lets say 250K.
Now on paper it looks good for bluray 400K vs 250K. But how many of those systems will never be used for movies? How many are in households w/o HDTV? How many are in the "game room" or kids room connected by composite cable? I don't know but it will reduce the # of active bluray movie devices. Now every single HD-DVD addon drive for the xbox360 will be used for movies. Microsoft has already said it will never release games on HD-DVD so the player is only for movies.
So the deciding # are:
1) How many addon drives will microsoft sell?
2) What % of the PS3 will be used for movie purchases?
Currently HD-DVD in less than a year has a buythrough ratio of about 9:1. Thats nine movies for every device sold. Those are # that mean a lot to movie studios. If say the PS3 ends up with a buythrough ratio of 2:1 (or less if it is mostly used for games) then basicly one HD-DVD device is worth about 4 PS3 in terms of projecting the # of movies sold. So all # are not equal. To say well eventually there will be millions of PS3 so HD-DVD is doomed is foolish. You need to compare apples to apples.
Dave @ Nov 19th 2006 9:54AM
HD DVD is crap oldgen format. Blu-Ray will dominate in the next optical storage step. Thats why most IT companys prefer Blu-Ray...
IseWise @ Nov 19th 2006 3:42PM
I understand how movies play an important role, but it is still about one FORMAT against another FORMAT. Do you think that the market will allow for one format for movies and one format for data storage. Highly unlikely. Just like back with DVD's, we first started seeing them for movies, Sony then jumped in and decided to use the format for the PS2, which helped establish DVD as a format. Right now studios have picked which one they prefer and some have back both, but just because they are backing one right now doesn't mean they cant switch to another or decide to back both.
The PS3 IS helping establish Blu-Ray as a high definition format, for either movies or other entertainment. Blu-Ray has all the aspects that make it a good ALL AROUND FORMAT. I wont bother you with details, I m sure you know them already.
You really have to stand back and look at the big picture. We are talking about a new formats that might be as common a CD or DVD drives in a PC now. Movies without a doubt play a big role, but its like doing running a triathlon, you cant just do OK in swimming and biking, you have to be good all around, for all three events. Blu-Ray has 25GBs for your somewhat basic data storage (games/movies), 50GBs for maybe a couple seasons of a TV show, and coming soon, hopefully, 200GBs for massive data storage and backup.
Andy @ Nov 19th 2006 5:29PM
Your right, this is a movie war, and PS3 defenetly has the advantage. The whole idea of their console is not only for playing games. but for a whole media entertainment system. Most people will put their PS3 in the living room where they have a nice Sony HD LCD Tv, not in the kids room on a crappy old crt. Also the fact that xbox wont be releasing any games on HD-DVD is a really bad move, prpbably is't not possible for them to do that anyway, as it is only an add on, and probobly doens't have the trasfer rate cabablities to store games on. Once PS3 really starts to realease games that take up the full 50gigs, as compared to a standard DVD, they will be drastically better then the Xbox. Also the Blue Ray has the capablitity of storing up to 200Gigs with the use of 8 layers. this is not possible with the HD-DVD, and there will be tons of companies that will be using up all that space. THe enormous size is also good for piracy, as most people won;t have anywhere to store all those movies. Blue Ray all the way! How did HD-DVD get into this anyway? Wasn't Sony that first came up with this idea, like 6 years ago?
pliepl @ Nov 19th 2006 6:48PM
Andy,
Your right, this is a movie war, and PS3 defenetly has the advantage.
Over what and how so?
The whole idea of their console is not only for playing games. but for a whole media entertainment system. Most people will put their PS3 in the living room where they have a nice Sony HD LCD Tv, not in the kids room on a crappy old crt.
The mention of Sony HD LCD Tv makes you sound like a Sony fanatic. Most people dont have HDTVs. Its still a burgeoning technology so to say that most PS3 will be hooked up to a nice Sony HD LCD Tv is a bit of a stretch.
Also the fact that xbox wont be releasing any games on HD-DVD is a really bad move, prpbably is't not possible for them to do that anyway, as it is only an add on, and probobly doens't have the trasfer rate cabablities to store games on. Once PS3 really starts to realease games that take up the full 50gigs, as compared to a standard DVD, they will be drastically better then the Xbox.
http://www.gamesfirst.com/index.php?id=1132
Thats an interesting article.
By the time games need that much space, the next generation will be here.
Also the Blue Ray has the capablitity of storing up to 200Gigs with the use of 8 layers. this is not possible with the HD-DVD, and there will be tons of companies that will be using up all that space. THe enormous size is also good for piracy, as most people won;t have anywhere to store all those movies.
That comment sounds more like a reason for Blu-ray as a storage medium for computers than for game usage.
An experimental disc is far from a commercially viable product. 200 GB games in this console generation (PS3/X360/Wii) is a bit of a stretch wouldnt you say? I already think 50GB is a stretch already so you know what I think about that. Filling games with pre-rendered movie clips doesnt necessarily make it better. Thats the only way I could see X360 games using more than what DVD9 can offer.
IseWise,
I understand how movies play an important role, but it is still about one FORMAT against another FORMAT. Do you think that the market will allow for one format for movies and one format for data storage. Highly unlikely. Just like back with DVD's, we first started seeing them for movies, Sony then jumped in and decided to use the format for the PS2, which helped establish DVD as a format.
DVD didnt have a format war on their hands; their enemy was the ancient VHS format. Even with all its supporiority, DVDs didnt catch on with the masses till the prices tumbled, which PS2 help.
Right now studios have picked which one they prefer and some have back both, but just because they are backing one right now doesn't mean they cant switch to another or decide to back both.
That sounds more like an argument for HDDVD than for Blu-ray. Remember that just about all of them but one backed Blu-ray prior to the formats launch.
The PS3 IS helping establish Blu-Ray as a high definition format, for either movies or other entertainment. Blu-Ray has all the aspects that make it a good ALL AROUND FORMAT. I wont bother you with details, I m sure you know them already.
All but one price. To get mass adoption for a movie format, price has to be key. If Blu-ray was the only kid in town, people would be forced to adopt it, but its not. Im not willing to pay the premium over HDDVD and it would seem that others are not either.
You really have to stand back and look at the big picture. We are talking about a new formats that might be as common a CD or DVD drives in a PC now. Movies without a doubt play a big role, but its like doing running a triathlon, you cant just do OK in swimming and biking, you have to be good all around, for all three events. Blu-Ray has 25GBs for your somewhat basic data storage (games/movies), 50GBs for maybe a couple seasons of a TV show, and coming soon, hopefully, 200GBs for massive data storage and backup.
As it is, HD movies dont require the storage Blu-ray has to offer to give us a great visual/audio experience, and probably wont till we go beyond 1080p content. Consider how much 720p/1080i HD content is on TV and how many people have HD sets and youll see how far we have to go before we surpass 1080p as a standard.
A whole season on 1 disc would be nice, but theres nothing wrong with spreading it over 3-5 discs. Most people dont sit down and watch an entire season start to finish in one sitting. Although its convenient to have on one disc, its not worth the price premium.
Considering that a combo Blu-ray/HDDVD drive is possible, theres no reason why Blu-ray cant be used for computer storage and HDDVD for movie media. The computer industry is more lenient with price premiums.
Larry @ Nov 20th 2006 10:00AM
The PS3 will not hit 10 million units until at least holiday season next year. I doubt there will be any price cuts until that time. The HD-DVD camp will have to cut the prices down by at least a hundred dollars before then. The HDDVD add on for Xbox360 can be had for 200 hundred dollars. With Vista coming up I expect you will see an easy integration to come a couple of months later.
It will be a long time before any game really needs 50 gigs of space, probably the generation after this one. The cost of developing that much content would be too great.
pliepl @ Nov 20th 2006 12:32PM
The PS3 will not hit 10 million units until at least holiday season next year. I doubt there will be any price cuts until that time. The HD-DVD camp will have to cut the prices down by at least a hundred dollars before then. The HDDVD add on for Xbox360 can be had for 200 hundred dollars. With Vista coming up I expect you will see an easy integration to come a couple of months later.
I dont think so either, considering that Sony is already losing money on each console. I also dont think theyll reach 10 million units by next holiday season, the PS3 aura seems to have died down and its only been a few days after launch at that. What people have been willing to pay for one (on eBay) has just about halved since launch even though the consoles are still in limited supply. At the current retail prices, my guess is that by the time the units reach 2-3 million units sales will plateau until prices drop which should surge the next sales momentum. Only then will those who want one but arent willing to pay that high will jump on.