Another predictor says Blu-ray will be the victor
- Studio support
- Vast majority of studios support Blu-ray -- although not all are exclusive, and the title count still weighs pretty heavily in HD DVD's favor
- PS3
- Almost surely what Sony is hoping will propel their division's sales of Blu-ray devices, since their own player has been delayed many many times, but will the purported 400,000 units to be available on launch day even make a difference? And what about the $199 Xbox 360 add-on and recently-announced 1080p support?
- Price
- Prices should come down drastically on the players as time passes, reducing the current 100% cost differential, but will it be enough if people are perfectly happy with HD DVD?
- Politics
- The studios will begin to feel pressure to pick one side and stick with it. Don't forget this could work just as easily against Blu-ray if sales don't catch up to expected levels for BR discs.
- Peace Treaty
- Supposedly Blu-ray will gain the momentum it needs to force Toshiba to the bargaining table, but we aren't totally sold on that one. There is a huge vested interest in keeping HD DVD alive by Microsoft, Toshiba, even some of the studios. While Swann still sees a compromise or merger of some sort in 2007, we can easily see a war of attrition continuing for many years.
Is Swanni's reasoning sound, or is he just pulling this out of thin air to give us something to
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
GioNYC @ Oct 23rd 2006 4:41PM
Solution:
Buy an HD-DVD Player and buy PS3 to play games and watch blue-ray flicks.
Rick Lyon @ Oct 23rd 2006 4:44PM
I agree with the devil's advocate views. I don't see Blu Ray winning, and although I'm not sure Toshiba wins, I think it would be a loss for both companies before Sony wins it.
Baldwin @ Oct 23rd 2006 4:57PM
In the Betamax vs. VHS war, SONY did not allow Porn to be on Betamax tapes.
So, since they couldn't put porn on Betamax, they used VHS.
All the porn was sold on VHS, so the man of the house had to go out and buy a VHS player.
This time around SONY is allowing Porn to be on Blu-Ray discs.
The porn industry is supporting Blu-Ray
-Baldwin
Joseph @ Oct 23rd 2006 8:13PM
"In the Betamax vs. VHS war, SONY did not allow Porn to be on Betamax tapes." etc.
That's total BULL, and completely wrong!
A neighborhood friend of mine was the first I knew who bought a "video tape recorder" (in 1980-81). It was a huge Sony Betamax, and he rented dozens of BETA Porn videotapes that were available (along with VHS) in adult video stores at the time.
His favorite "star" at that time was Annette Haven.
Whoever you are that posted the above erroneous info, sorry but I was there and know firsthand.
Addex @ Oct 23rd 2006 5:03PM
Content is king, and BD has that support today. Plus the 50GB discs. And a majority of all CE makers support BD. It has been a slow start but the ball is starting to roll.
And the BD spec is better than HD-DVDs.
fangler @ Oct 23rd 2006 5:04PM
His reasons are completely bogus and work as well for HD-DVD as you pointed out. Two resons why blu-ray will not win (I think it will be a tie and we will be stuck with 2 formats).
1. Blu-ray is coming late to the table and is more expensive without delivering greater perceived value.
2. HD-DVD has HD and DVD in its name. Average consumer sees that and understands it is better and the successor to DVD. Blu-Ray means nothing.
Jim @ Oct 23rd 2006 5:24PM
They both will fail if they keep it up. Just another SACD vs. DVD-Audio situation. Most people are content with upconverted DVD for now. Cable and satellite will have better HD on demand eventually and it may be possible to DL HD from Apple and others next year to some sort of STB via the internet. So if HD-DVD and Blu-Ray don't get it together, they will simply be an expensive niche like laserdisc, MD, etc. The average consumer will not buy 2 players, especially one costing $1000 or more. I'd buy a second HDTV for that money.
Now if they allow hybrid players, they both win, sort of like DVD-R vs. DVD+R. No one will care which format it is, so long as it's HD and has the cool blue or red plastic on the box. That is the difference now that VHS and beta could not solve. The media is the same physical size, and there is no technical reason stopping the manufacture of an affordable multi-format player now that Ricoh and NEC have pickups and silicon to do it.
MacTX @ Oct 23rd 2006 6:13PM
Studio support: This doesn't seem as much of an advantage for blu-ray as their supports would have me believe. It seems to me that the studios are like consumers, they're fence sitting till there's a clear format leader. The possibility of studios switching support is there, a lot are not exclusive.
PS3: If PS3's launch were in the millions of units, I would consider it a threat as far as the format war was concerned. The blu-ray/hddvd war is different than in the time of DVD and the PS2. People are putting too much stock on the PS3 as the ace for the blu-ray side. Until you can walk into any electronics retailer and purchase a PS3, PS3 is a non-issue in the war, it's just a niche product. By the time that happens, what's not to say that hddvd and blu-ray standalone players will not be cheaper wiping out the "price" factor from the PS3 as player even further.
Price: currently, getting into blu-ray costs 2x what it is to get into hddvd. Yes, blu-ray costs will come down, but unless hddvd remains static (and I doubt it will) there's no reason to believe that hddvd will not become even cheaper. Lets not forget that it's the technology that makes blu-ray more expensive.
Whichever format drops below $250 to get in the door will have my vote, as well as numerous others I would imagine. When DVD first came out, they were as expensive as blu-ray is today. I didn't jump on the bandwagon till the players were $300.
Porn Industry: I hear this a lot and although I wasn't around during the vhs/betamax war, the world isn't what it was then. You can get porn in more than one format (Internet delivery as a huge source).
Ed @ Oct 23rd 2006 6:20PM
So Samsungs BD player still has glitches and a faulty chip that CAN'T be fixed.Sony's machine is not out yet (remember it's been delayed 4 times) and it's already a flop with even bigger problems glitches and I'M SURE it has that faulty chip... and there are some people out there that think Blu Ray has a chance why?????
pliepl @ Oct 23rd 2006 7:31PM
The one point that I've read over and over again is that blu-ray has more capacity than hddvd. Interesting enough, outside the sphere of techsites and forums, the average consumers won't care about that. From what I've read, the extra capacity doesn't help blu-ray as much as everyone was expecting. With almost 2x the capacity, shouldnt we see almost 2x the quality from blu-ray?
Blu-ray is 2x more expensive with 2x the storage capacity... so far they haven't shown they're 2x better then hddvd and in some cases hddvd is shown better. Blu-ray as a storage medium is superior to hddvd (no one will doubt that) but blu-ray as a movie medium is at the same level and sometimes less... with a 2x price tag. This is why it will fail.
It reminds me of the parallel in the game industry. PS3 has all this power and technology; yet, the buzz from game makers is that the games will not be any more visually spectacular as those on the Xbox 360.
Lets not forget that Sony is the primary supporter for blu-ray. They have the most to lose. Ive read that the reason we dont have combo drives out is due to the blu-ray license agreement preventing such a device, whether that is true or not, I wouldnt put it past Sony.
Darkwater @ Oct 23rd 2006 7:48PM
Why is it that you can't find any qualifications on Philip Swann other than the fact that he's been a speaker at other places?
I used to get his daily e-mail and he would start to sound more and more ignorant as time went on. When I tried looking up his history to see what made him so "knowledgable," I couldn't find a thing.
Philip Swann is the Tony Roberts of television technology and is no more qualified to make these guesses than my Grandma. Don't listen to a word this idiot spews.
Wellinformed @ Oct 23rd 2006 11:53PM
First of all, this is not just Sony. There are 3 major developers of Blu-ray technology. Anyone that singles Sony out will probably not be someone you can reason with.
Secondly, on the PC side of things, a 25GB Blu-ray disc is MUCH cheaper to buy that the 15GB HD-DVD disc. That means the price per GB is an even wider canyon for HD-DVD to cross. HD-DVD discs will never be able to give you the convenience of backing up your 60GB or 200GB on a single disc, so why call in next-gen (it's more like now-gen). HD-DVD doesn't have the expandability needed to become the next generation format.
Blu-ray titles are comparible in price to HD-DVD titles. Blu-ray titles should overtake HD-DVD titles by the end of this year. HD-DVD will never be able to match the number of titles the Blu-ray camp will be able to (5 Major exclusive studios producing content for Blu-ray compared to 1 major exclusive studio for HD-DVD).
Besides cost of entry into the game (the cost is the same if you want 1080p output), there is NO logical reason to support HD-DVD as the next-generation format.
GenNow @ Oct 24th 2006 12:56AM
Everybody seems to think that physical media is dead (blu-ray, HD-DVD, DVD, etc..) because we will be able to download all our content like movies, music, etc..
But... Think about this:
1) Unless you pay $600 a month for T1 line to your house, it will take 6-8 hours do download a HD movie. I'd rather go to my local Best Buy.
2) Hard drives crash... but I guess you can burn a backup copy to... oh... a blu-ray or HD-DVD disc.
3) Physical media comes with pretty packaging. It makes you feel like you purchased something with value.
My 2 cents.
Talkstr8t @ Oct 24th 2006 12:58AM
Ed, how many times are you going to repeat "So Samsungs BD player still has glitches and a faulty chip that CAN'T be fixed." It's not a faulty chip, it was a setting which some users didn't like, and which is being addressed via a firmware update. The Samsung player has turned out to be well-liked by most.
pliepl, you can't get 2x better quality (how do you even quantify that?) but you will have 2x the content (actually 1.67x), so a five-disc season on HD-DVD could be done in three discs on Bu-ray, or you may get extra bundled copies of the movie for iPod, or other bonus materials. Also, with the PS3 coming out at $499/599 there won't be a 2x price difference.
Steve J @ Oct 24th 2006 5:42AM
"Whoever you are that posted the above erroneous info, sorry but I was there and know firsthand"
Lol...I'm sure there's a joke there somewhere ;)
Genk @ Oct 24th 2006 5:54AM
While it may be true that Blu-Ray can store more than HD DVD that's not going to make a profit for the backers based on storage alone. Also, you only really need 100GB for Quad HD and by then a new format would have arisen. HD DVD can have triple layer 45GB which is still significant. It's all well saying Blu-Ray can store 100GB+ but they have twice the capacity already for high movie quality and HD DVD is winning hands down with only 30GB discs. Also Blu-Ray discs are not cheaper than HD DVD, as HD DVD can use existing DVD production facilities with only slight modifications, making it VERY cheap, while Blu-Ray needs new expensive facilities. Lastly..."Triple Layer capacity Double Sided HD DVD = 90 GB" Google it! And to back up Blu-Ray being cheaper "http://avzombie.com/blog/2006/10/23/leading-us-disc-replicators-back-hd-dvd-over-blu-ray/"
Genk @ Oct 24th 2006 6:11AM
Also "Wellinformed" not long ago, weren't all 8 studios backing Blu-Ray, then according the "experts" article who has no credibility saying it was 7 studios, now you claim 5 are backing Blu-Ray, quite a drop in such a short time. Also 90GB HD DVD to 100GB Blu-Ray is the same inconvenience...they both will take a long time. Also 200GB Blu-Ray is just a theory, there is no major news on a working prototype as TDK have only just started work on the 100GB disc. As for the "next-gen" both formats are "now-gen" as they are out...now! They are called "next-gen" just because they are superior to previous generation. It's nothing to do with being future proof. By the time Quad HD is rolling, you will need "next-gen" equipment, new discs, movies, movie masters, cameras, displays, codecs, and facilities...next-gen stuff. The only credit I can give Sony is their power of advertisement. Just look at that PS3/HD DVD/Wii comparison table, thats propaganda even the Third Reich would be proud of. The only thing that will win it for them is their reputation based on the PS2, people dont care, they just want a PS3now!
pliepl @ Oct 24th 2006 10:05AM
Wellinformed:
I didnt say Sony was the only developer; theyre just the primary. They have the most pull out of all the developers; more to benefit and more to lose from it.
Im not unreasonable at all; I just dont have a blind faith towards any brand. Whichever product can do what I want at a price Im willing to pay (Im sure Im not the only one like this) will get my dollars, simple as that. Right now, none of the formats has that, although hddvd is a lot further than blu-ray.
Blu-ray and hddvd as a recording platform is still far too early for pc adoption, its still a niche product/format in the movie market and even further of a niche format in the pc market. It will remain so until recorders are under $300 and discs are less than a dollar. Blu-ray doesnt provide 60-200GB on a single disc at the moment and it will be a long time till that happens at any sort of reasonable price.
Blu-ray titles overtaking hddvd titles by the end of the year is a little optimistic
http://www.thedvdwars.com/index.cfm
On Amazon, the margin between hddvd sales and blu-ray sales is pretty substantial. The customers ultimately have the final say in what survives and what fades into the dust.
Until blu-ray can give a convincing argument why we should pay the premium (movie studios support isnt enough since they can be swayed with consumer dollars and some are already leaning towards supporting both), blu-ray as a video format isnt logical. Youre paying a lot more for something thats at best equivalent to the competing format.
GenNow:
I dont think physical media is dead either on the contrary, I buy dvds and music cds vs. purchasing them from download retailers. I feel like I get what Ive paid for and like that physical assurance as well.
Talkstr8t:
PS3s $500/600 price argument is still vaporware until those players materialize in sufficient quanitity. Theres no doubt that the initial launch numbers will sell out (theres a lot of Sony fanatics out there). You're also assuming that the price of hddvd players remain static. Electronics prices are seldom static.
Genk:
I dont consider either format as a viable storage medium for computers yet. The cost is still too high to use either in such a manner. They wont be until prices are drastically reduced regardless of projected storage capacities. Dvd has just now gotten to the point where its affordable as a recording medium.
Vanillacide @ Oct 24th 2006 4:51PM
Over in the UK, a major online retailer Play.com reported today that HD DVD hardware is outselling Blu-ray hardware 2:1 and on the movie front HD DVD is outsetting Blu-ray by a ratio of 3:1.
@Baldwin: the first 1080i porn discs are HD DVD. The industry initially like the sound of Blu-ray with its extra anti-piracy measures and PS3 user base. But the cost of production, when you run is in the low tens of thousands, means that HD DVD supports much higher profit margins and the piracy measures are 'good enough'. Profit wins, natch!
Ed @ Oct 24th 2006 7:04PM
NOW THEY SAY IT'S HD DVD WILL WIN!!! And to me this explanation makes more sense why http://www.tvpredictions.com/whipblu102406.htm
kc @ Oct 24th 2006 9:29PM
is it just me, but why would i buy something with such bad fix-it issues before its out! maybe play station is not important, when are we going to talk about build quality and not when its released. i am tired of beta versions. i could not reccomend BD just because of what i read here. when is Sony going to get it!