HD DVD supporters talk Q4 '06 and beyond
Microsoft wasn't the only one with something to show off yesterday, the rest of the HD DVD camp was on hand to show off what they've done in the months since launch and what we can expect for the rest of the year. On the hardware side there is of course the Xbox 360 drive, as well as Toshiba's HD-A1 and HD-XA1 players already on shelves. A Toshiba exec stated the cheaper A1 is outselling its more expensive counterpart by a ratio of 5-1, although that may not mean much as it is much more widely available. Depending on who you ask, Warner Home Video exec Steve Nickerson either said there are as many HD DVD players sold as there were DVD players in all of 1997, or that there will be by the end of this year. Seeing as there were about 300,000 DVD players sold in '97 and HD DVD is still in the "tens of" range, we'll go with the latter interpretation.
As far as software, Paramount Home Entertainment, New Line Home Entertainment, Universal Studios Home Entertainment and Warner Home Video were all on hand, however New Line does not expect to release any discs on either format until early 2007. Warner will release between 35 and 50 additional titles by the end of this year, 60 total from Universal, while Paramount expects to "probably double" its ten movies currently available by the end of this year. All in all they expect as many as 150 HD DVD discs for consumers to choose from in 2006. We can still look forward to limited availability of interactive additional features on discs this year as the studios continue to gauge customer reaction to the new technology to predict what will work best in 2007.
Even with all the positivity and good consumer reactions, it's hard to ignore that HD DVD is still talking thousands, while Blu-ray will be saying millions after the PS3 launch in November.
[Via AVS Forum]
As far as software, Paramount Home Entertainment, New Line Home Entertainment, Universal Studios Home Entertainment and Warner Home Video were all on hand, however New Line does not expect to release any discs on either format until early 2007. Warner will release between 35 and 50 additional titles by the end of this year, 60 total from Universal, while Paramount expects to "probably double" its ten movies currently available by the end of this year. All in all they expect as many as 150 HD DVD discs for consumers to choose from in 2006. We can still look forward to limited availability of interactive additional features on discs this year as the studios continue to gauge customer reaction to the new technology to predict what will work best in 2007.
Even with all the positivity and good consumer reactions, it's hard to ignore that HD DVD is still talking thousands, while Blu-ray will be saying millions after the PS3 launch in November.
[Via AVS Forum]























Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
zombieflanders @ Aug 8th 2006 8:28AM
No Blade, LOTR, or Nightmare on Elm Street? Hmmm...New Line is actually part of Warner, so the wait until 2007 must be for some reason. Let's see...Several brands of Blu-ray players including the PS3 already out, AVC or VC-1 will be used, BD-50 will be in production, Apple will most likely be announcing (Pioneer-branded) Blu-ray drives. Nope, can't see why they're waiting. :)
Randy @ Aug 8th 2006 8:55AM
This is interesting. I wonder if New Line is actually working on such titles as LOTR (..among others) as we speak. God, that would be bliss.
Jason @ Aug 8th 2006 9:40AM
It wont matter how many million people have Blu-Ray drives who buy the PS3... If they don't buy the movies it wont make any difference! If HD-DVD can get themselves down to the price of a GOOD upscaling player they can win this format was with ease! If the HD-DVD player costs about $250 there would be no reason to still buy those upscaling players... just get an HD-DVD player instead...
Parris @ Aug 8th 2006 9:58AM
Come on HDBeat!! I like you guys and enjoy your podcasts but lately your blu-ray bias is getting to the point where you cant even post an article without taking a cheapshot at HD-DVD.
I've had a chance to have both players in my home theater and bottomline is HD-DVD looks better than Blu-Ray. Im not a fanboy of either format but until Blu-Ray stops using MPEG-2 and switches over to VC-1 or any other type of supported MPEG-4 format then the joe sixpack consumer will decide this format war because not only is HD-DVD cheaper but it also looks better.
Love the site and the podcast but if you guys want to be Blu-Ray bias then atleast get someone on the show that can give another side of the format war arguement
cckrobinson @ Aug 8th 2006 10:27AM
Parris,
Do you even listen to the podcast Matt has been in the HD-DVD camp from day one. He's constantly posting articles that are favorable to HD-DVD.
KC @ Aug 8th 2006 10:32AM
What's up with the "dig" on HD-DVD at the end of the post??? It is not only biased but illogical and inaccurate.
Earlier in the post the XBOX 360 add-on is mentioned but conveniently “IGNORED” in the eleventh-hour editorial and figures.
There are currently over 5 million XBOX 360s sold. So if only 20% buy the add-on, that’s 1 million HD-DVD players. I'm fairly certain the HD-DVD folks are "talking" about and considering that? [For any wise guys, I know that this of course assumes that they make as many add-ons]
In addition, it’s pretty safe to say that after spending $500/600 on the PS3, any money left is going to games and a controller. Where anyone purchasing the 360 add-on is buying it to view movies so guess what… they are also buying movies!!!
Readers beware the “Blu-ray” propaganda…
p.s. I am NOT a HD-DVD “Fanboy” and hope to buy a PS3 someday, so I look forward to watching good quality Blu-ray movies.
MikeS @ Aug 8th 2006 10:37AM
IF the blu-ray coalition could get their act together and tell Sony to drop MPEG-2 and use VC-1 AND drop player prices to $500, I'd say blu-ray is a winner over HD-DVD at this time. However, at $1000 a player and MPEG-2 on single layer blu-ray has a long way to go to catch HD-DVD on pricing and PQ. PS3 will still be more than buying an HD-DVD player and the Ninetendo Wii........
Richard Lawler @ Aug 8th 2006 10:43AM
KC - If you think that the HD DVD add-on will achieve double the attach rate (20%) than Xbox Live did on the original Xbox over its lifetime (around 10%), in one or two months, then I will have to disagree with your prediction.
There's no bias necessary to see that HD DVD is going to have a very uphill battle in terms of installed base. If you want to guess at tie ratio you can, but at this point it is no more than a guess.
KC @ Aug 8th 2006 10:44AM
Matt has been the only one I believe to to be the fair and neutral party regarding HD-DVD and Blu-ray.
In addition, I have yet to here one reasonable argument why Blu-ray is better. In past post, Ben's argument came down to brand loyalty and studio support.
Brand loyalty aside (this a matter of personal preference and not worth debating); if all Blu-ray has left is the "good will" and devotion of Hollywood studios… they “may” be in trouble… maybe?
Parris @ Aug 8th 2006 10:47AM
Yes i do listen to the show and while Matt may from time to time argue for HD-DVD it is a pretty weak arguement.
I dont mind giving facts why one format will win over the other but when you admit that HD-DVD has better PQ but then try to justify blu-ray anyways I call that being bias
Tube @ Aug 8th 2006 10:57AM
Millions? I don't know anyone planning to buy a PS3. It's just too expensive. I fail to see how you draw that conclusion.
TJ @ Aug 8th 2006 10:58AM
The HD DVD add-on is just that: An add-on. And historically, they're never as successful as a built-in component.
If you're a gamer, and your TV is high def (which many people upgraded to after the 360 release), why not buy a couple of Blu-ray movies for your shiny new PS3?
And while Blu-ray may not be getting the raves in pq that HD DVD is (yet), it still looks a heck of a lot better than standard DVD. Why spend the money for an upgrade when its already built into your PS3.
Plus, you'll have a few non-HD people who will get PS3s and check out Blu-ray movies for the extra features. Think about it: If Pirates 2 comes out in a DVD and Blu-ray version, and the BD has more bonus features, some people will buy it for the extra features rather than the increased picture quality. Sure, that won't win the war for them, but the studios don't care why people buy the software, as long as they do.
Simple fact is, Blu-ray will have a larger installed base than HD DVD, and if even half of that installed base has an HDTV, HD DVD has a tough fight.
zombieflanders @ Aug 8th 2006 11:03AM
Has there *ever* been a console add-on that was successful? Virtual Boy, SegaCD, PS2 HDD, the list of failed add-on devices goes on and on. Even the DVD kit for the X-Box wasn't that popular. What makes the HD DVD attachment any different?
And in regards to the codecs, that's already in the pipeline. Warner has already started work on VC-1 encodes for Blu-ray, and reportedly Fox's announcement of Blu-ray titles last month was made when they got their hands on the production AVC tools.
KC @ Aug 8th 2006 11:03AM
No Richard, you are missing the point... I'm saying that the claim of millions to thousands is exaggerated.
And if you want to quote attachment rates, how about using current figures like the 60% attachment rate for "XBOX 360" Live?
TJ @ Aug 8th 2006 11:07AM
Tube- people were buying 360's on ebay for over a grand! Granted, the soccer mom's will probably be getting their kids a Wii, but there are a lot of people who are either very loyal to the Playstation brand, or people like me, who see it as a bargain-priced Blu-ray player that also plays games. Those people will snap up the consoles before Christmas no matter what the price. I can only hope your prediction comes true, so its easier for me to get one!
KC- Personally, studio support is just as important as PQ for me. I got Toshiba's HD-A1, and have about 10 movies for it, but 8 of those are Warner/Paramount. Just looking at the Blu-ray shelf at Best Buy, there are at least another 8-10 Blu-ray movies I'd love to own.
I'd rather have a player that plays all of my favorite movies in high-def, than a player that only plays about half of them, even if picture quality is slightly better (and after this year, I think they'll be tied).
Sad fact is, they're both good formats. I just want one to win over the other soon so Lucas can start triple-dipping me on high def Star Wars!
Richard Lawler @ Aug 8th 2006 11:15AM
KC - We'll stop comparing millions to thousands when HD DVD's own people stop stating their numbers in the thousands. Unfortunately until they actually sell more or show how they are going to ship more, we just can't do it. Sony has announced how many PS3s they plan to ship, when Microsoft lets us know how many HD DVD add-ons they plan to make available, we'll account for it.
I'm comparing it to the previous generation xbox attach rate because xbox live was an add on that launch after the xbox launched. with the 360, it has been firmly integrated since launch. As someone who is a gamer and Xbox Live subscriber, I know that even though it was very good and actually made games better, it still didn't surpass 10% attach rate on Xbox, because it was an add-on. To think that an attachment that will in no way affect gaming will do better numbers, is a very optimistic prediction.
KC @ Aug 8th 2006 11:33AM
All good points TJ but in the "end" the studios will support whomever sells the most movies.
Also, I agree that Blu-ray will have the advantage with the installed base of Blu-ray players from the PS3 but you can not ignore the fact that the add-on "could" potentitally close this gap significantly. Especially if the price is right.
And again, to my earlier point. After purchasing a PS3, extra controller and a few games; how many people will have money left to buy a movie or two. And, if you did have the extra $30+ bucks, as a gamer, wouldnt you use that money to buy additional peripherals such as the PS2 memory card adapter?
Jason @ Aug 8th 2006 11:43AM
OK... People FLOCKED to the 360 and paid a premium on ebay for it because it was the ONLY way to get a console that you could play HD games on your HDTV.. PERIOD... that is not the case with the PS3... there is an alternative to the PS3... its called the 360 and it costs half as much and has pretty much all the same games that look the same on both machines... why would I spend twice as much on the PS3?
Lets not forget one thing that the numbers don't include... the PS3 will be MUCH BIGGER IN JAPAN than the US... so more than half of those MILLIONS of PS3's they are counting as the install base of Blu-Ray players will be in Japan where they could probably care less about our American movie scene. The 360 is really a US thing and isn't that popular in Japan at all... so those millions of 360's are mostly in the US and the UK, etc... Japan is a different movie market all together... isn't that what Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are all about MOVIES!?!
Richard Lawler @ Aug 8th 2006 11:53AM
KC - all valid points, but as I said in the 360 HD DVD post and as you said, the price is key. Until we know that it's hard to say. As far as buying a movie or two, all I can say is that as someone who bought a 360 and quickly ended up $700 lighter when everything was totalled up, it's easy to justify buying "one more" game or movie to show off your system you just bought at launch. How that will translate in terms of tie ratio I'm also not willing to predict.
BLY @ Aug 8th 2006 1:11PM
I read HD DVD USB 2.0. Xbox 360 HD-DVD could use hook up laptop. Because HD-DVD has built in decoder ATI. You can carry it with laptop or PC or somewhere. Also Microsoft says that Xbox 360 will have preformace smooth with HD-DVD USB 2.0 twice decoder ATI. I believe HD DVD is better codec than Blu-ray. For example HD DVD has dual layer 30GB with VC-1, then uncompression maybe 45GB. Blu-ray has 10 percent compression. I think those are both equal size disc. I'm sorry my bad english.
Ricki @ Aug 8th 2006 1:13PM
this site is so pro blu ray, its sickening.
millions of PSP's were sold, yet UMD's failed. PS3 is not going to decide this war. Picture quality and price will, and so far that advantage goes to HD DVD.
Steve J @ Aug 8th 2006 1:31PM
I actually think the site as a whole is very balanced. Sure Ben and Matt have their own distinct opinions on the issues, but there's nothing wrong with that... you have two people who can argue strongly for their respective sides... this is a good thing.
When you consider the site as a whole, I think they do a pretty good job in bring us HD news with rational opinions.
cckrobinson @ Aug 8th 2006 1:45PM
"PS3 is not going to decide this war. Picture quality and price will, and so far that advantage goes to HD DVD."
You are 1/2 right. Picture quality isn't going to make much different in the long run because the two formats are already relatively close. The quality difference between a cheap progressive scan DVD player and a decent player is night and day. I'll bet you that Walmart sells a heck of a lot more $20 Cyberhome players than it does $70 Panasonics. Do the people buying the Cyberhome care about quality? The early adopters want the best PQ available, but the majority of the people money talks.
Price will have a big impact initially, but Toshiba can't afford to subsidize it's player for ever. As more CE manufactures put their hats into the ring the price of Blu-ray will come down.
The PS3 will sell some movies, but it won't push Blu-ray over the edge. My first player will probably be the HD-DVD Xbox 360 drive assuming it's supported on my HTPC. Do I think Blu-ray will win in the end - yes. Do I think HD-DVD is a better value now - certainly.
Tim @ Aug 8th 2006 5:08PM
I agree Sony will sell all 5 million of their PS3's this year to the hardcore gamers. However...many people are starting to look at the data and are wondering just how ferocious of an appetite do hardcore gamers have for movies over that of early HD-DVD adopters. I'm just as surprised as many are of the cluster____ that is the Blu Ray launch. I own a PS2 and an XBOX 360 but have no plans to buy a PS3 til the price is way down. I own the $499 Toshiba HD player and I couldn't be happier with the picture and sound quality. Point is...the PS3 is a game machine and the MAJORITY of software bought for it will not be movies. It's gonna be games. 5 million Blu-Rays added to the market looks good on paper but I GUARANTEE you that HD-DVD will have higher sell through and the studios will start looking at that. Dont be surprised to see people switching sides or supporting both. Studios will sell more titles on HD because those owners are the ones who are the movie fans. PS3 may not be Blu-rays savior like many people thought it once was.
David @ Aug 9th 2006 11:37AM
Best bet, both xbox 360 hddvd + ps3 hd or toshiba hda1 and PS3.
or 3, DVHS and record + ps3+ xbox 360hddvd.
Wii-xbox360 and ps3
all these can be had for the price of 1 stand alone blueray player
However I do not think either console will give the dedicated performance and quality and features of a dedicated HD player.
just dont blow $1000-$2000 on a first gen blue ray player and 25GB Mpeg3-4 blueray disks. get everything else. and hdmi/component switcher