http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/ Engadget HD Comments for Why HD DVD will prevail: my opinion http://www.engadgethd.com/media/feedlogo.gif http://www.engadgethd.com en-us Copyright 2008 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/Apr 19th 2006 1:21PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/Apr 19th 2006 1:38PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
What good are those 3 when only one manufacturer( RCA player is really a Toshiba) is making the players and only 3 studios are providing movies?

This assumes of course that my prediction that Blu-Ray will have alot more movies than HD-DVD. We won't know this until Blu-Ray is relased. ]]>Apr 19th 2006 1:40PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/This is irrelevant except to the early adopters. Prices will also go down over time until the difference is negligable ... until then next gen. DVD penetration will be minimal anyways. You're also forgetting about the PS3 which will be a BR player and then some ... for about the same pric as that Toshiba. There is no HD-DVD console trojan horse.

2: Perception
Yes, HDDVD makes more sense than Blu-Ray to the consumer. Then again, it makes HD-DVD sound like DVD 1.5 whereas BR is a unique format that is truly next generation. Consider "HD Radio" vs. XM or Sirius Satellite Radio ... which one sounds like the better technology? What im saying is that perception can go many ways. You're simplfying it too much. And, the marketing push hasn't even started.

3: Head Start
Your PS2 vs. XBOX analogy is all wrong. PS2 came out on top for many, many reasons. If you think the first to market advantage was the only thing going for you should do some research on another system that was ahead of its time: the Dreamcast.

4: The PC Market
Remember these guys? They use optical media too. How many PCs are sold on a daily basis. Which format has more support?]]>Apr 19th 2006 1:41PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
In my opinion.]]>Apr 19th 2006 1:43PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/Apr 19th 2006 1:57PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
Also... The preception is also huge... we are talking about the average consumer here... they are who will decide who wins the format war... not the early adopters and people who can spend a grand on a dvd player. The name, although it seems silly, will have a big impact on the perception of people and HD-DVD is alot easier to understand than Blu-Ray (which has nothing denoting that it has anything to do with DVD's or movies)...

THE ONLY REASON PS2 came out on top was the PS1... thats it... which in reality boils down to software/content... if you bought a PS2 who had a TON of content to use on it already... the XBOX didn't have that advantage... neight did the Dreamcast...

The PC market is also irrelivant when it comes to HD-DVD... Do we watch movies on Iomega REV drives attached to our TV? NO... I really think that Blu-Ray will not win the HD movie format war... HD-DVD will and Blu-Ray will be adopted for mass data storage... that is or couse if it ever does prove to be able to hold 100GB on a disc.

Blu-Ray only has a single upside (storage capacity) and right now it isn't even measurable... HD-DVD is capable of doing everything Blu-Ray is right now... and it costs less, is easier to produce, and all around will just make more sense to the average consumer. Sorry Sony... you missed the mark... again...]]>Apr 19th 2006 2:02PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/Apr 19th 2006 2:04PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/Apr 19th 2006 2:04PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
First off most people won’t pay close enough attention to the number of titles currently available, especially if they are talked into attaching it with their new HDTV. Secondly, the PS3 will be a big help for households that play games, yes I know it's a huge number, but not for the average Joe/Jane. The Gaming console in the kid’s room makes up a major portion of the gaming market.

Here is a scenario that will apply to most average consumers. If My Mother and Father were faced with the choice of a $500 PS3 that does lots of things they won't use and plays HD Movies, A $1000 Blu-Ray player that just plays HD movies (what they want), or a $500 HD-DVD Player that only plays movies (again what they want) They are going to go with the HD-DVD Player. Why? Because even though the PS3 does more, they don't want all that other stuff to confuse them. Those of us that frequent AV and Tech sites are the ones who like screwing with cables, settings, and new technology. The average Mom and Pop consumer wants it simple and wants it cheap.]]>Apr 19th 2006 2:08PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
Blu-Ray has been making recorders for over 2 years now (though not BD-ROM compatible).]]>Apr 19th 2006 2:08PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
Also.. #6 you are proving the point of this column... Sales people right now are trying to push upconverting DVD players on people who buy HDTVs just because they are more expensive than your $25 DVD player... Now that they have the HOT new HD-DVD player technology they will be that much more excited about pushing that on the customer...

Really... we are not going to see much from the Blu-Ray camp until the PS3 is released... and that isn't going to be until November... and if there are players out before then and the early adopters buy them then none of them will buy a PS3... so If I am an early adopter don't I just wait until November to get the cheaper Blu-Ray player in the PS3 thus making the fact that players from other manufacturers will be out in June?? The PS3 WILL kill the Blu-Ray format!]]>Apr 19th 2006 2:11PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
The price difference between BD and HD DVD players is temporary. Eventually they'll equalize, and I don't think it'll take that long. The format war will not be won or lost in the first three months.

It still comes down to software. BD has much more studio support right now than HD DVD. Just look at how many HD DVD launch titles there are, and compare that to how many BD titles will be available. The difference is astounding. I know which format I'd want...]]>Apr 19th 2006 2:41PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
Apple and Dell are both going with Blu-Ray. Apple is getting LOTS of press these days and will only further the cause. Big article by Dell saying they won't bow to Wintel recently and confirmed their Blu-Ray camp status.

XBox 360 still off to a slow start and will offer HD-DVD addon at some point for some unseen amount of money. I also read the games will not be on HD-DVD, so I'm not sure why even offer an addon.

E3 is only weeks away and we'll see where Sony stands after E3 and all the PS3 announcements.]]>Apr 19th 2006 2:45PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/PS3 w/blu-ray is a better bang for the buck.
HD-DVD gets one scratch in it and its a goner.
Blu-ray specifically has a superior ruggedized and far more expensive coating to mitigate scratch issues.

You are right on one point, i see HD-DVD as a walmart kind of item, and i see Blu-ray as the higher end where the disposable income (money) for HD screens, equipment and content actually is anyhow.



]]>Apr 19th 2006 2:57PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
Also... studio support right now mean nothing... if HD-DVDs start to sell well you will see TONS of studios start making HD-DVDs... especially if they sell for $29.00 as opposed to $19.00... it WONT cost them 10 bucks more to have an HD-DVD produced... there will be alot of money to be made in HD-DVDs if the players start to sell well... and when there is money to be made movie studios alliances to an HD disc format will be thrown out of the window.

Also... when do you think the price will equalize? It will take much longer than a few months... if the price of the Blu-Ray player can go do so can the price of the HD-DVD player... when it costs 50% less right out of the gate it will take a lot of time for the price to equalize...

Also... I am not saying that there isn't room more multiple price level players... but that doesn't help Blu-Ray win this format war... it will only hurt them... costing twice as much for the same value to the consumer isn't a good thing at all. And the fact that ALL the stand alone players WILL cost more than the PS3 is a BAD thing no matter how you look at it!

Also... I have an XBox 360... and an XBox and a PlayStation 2... guess what I watch DVDs on?? My Samsung upconverting DVD player... WHY?? Because all the other 3 devices I can play DVDs on ARE TOO LOUD! I hope the PS3 run silent! If it doesn't I will probably have to buy a stand alone player that will play an next gen DVD format... most likely that will be the HD-DVD player... since the PS3 is going to cost me almost a grand!]]>Apr 19th 2006 2:57PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
Not enough titles is what killed off mini-disc, Digital Cassete, SACD etc. etc.]]>Apr 19th 2006 2:57PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
Irrelevant, if comparing initial prices. This will be a race to the $100 player (for the public). HD-DVD might get there first, but who knows.

2. Perception

Tipster:

“Yes, HDDVD makes more sense than Blu-Ray to the consumer.”

“What I’m saying is that perception can go many ways.”

Yes indeed perception can go many ways. And I think most of the non-tech public thinks alike (my perception). I think the public will associate HDDVD for the most part based on the name alone. We’ll see. Did D-VHS sound like VHS 1.5 to you too?

“Consider "HD Radio" vs. XM or Sirius Satellite Radio ... which one sounds like the better technology”

HD Radio “sounds” like better tech to me (my perception). … Someone hears the very mention of satellite and may think that’s crap, because they can’t even get satellite at home, so that may not work for them. There’s that perception thing again. These shouldn’t be compared since HD Radio is free after the equipment costs and is very rarely installed in new vehicles like it’s satellite counterparts. True the variety isn’t there, but you get what you (don’t) pay for.


3. Head Start

True DC was out first, but it REALLY shot itself in the foot by not having a DVD player, IMO. Also, the PS1 was riding high in 2000, so a lot people waited the arrival of the PS2 and all it’s promises (and slept on the DC). Why not wait to get a 2 for 1 with a game console and movie player? “Headstart is key” is irrelevant, since the time different between the two rival formats is not a year or so, but a matter of weeks. Also, the PS3 will be the only nextgen console with a nextgen player built-in (please correct me if I’m wrong). BR will saturate the market in terms of number of players.

I’m doubting every PS3 owner (or even half of them) will be playing their system on a HDTV (with HD cables), so to them a movie is a movie… and if said movie can be shared, downloaded, borrowed and copied (ahem, DVD) then I don’t see them buying too much software. To them, the BR player may seems like a bonus that they may never get to fully appreciate.


4: The PC Market

I’m that guy that you’re talking about. But this will depend on price of blank media and drives for me.

5. Content
Everyone and their momma knows Sony (and it’s studios) will never(?) release a movie on HD-DVD. So here’s how it goes.. If HD-DVD does catch on with the public (and hopefully the movie studios see this and release titles), and those Sony fan boys know that the PS3 will catch on.. both formats will be around for quite some time, for the simple fact that you won’t be able to get those Sony movies in any other format if nothing else.
]]>Apr 19th 2006 3:02PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
Microsoft isn't including licensing for Blu-Ray in Windows Vista. Consider what this means. It means that PC manufacturers will have to acquire licensing for BR drives SEPARATELY if they want to put BR drives in their PCs. This inflates costs. It also means that most mainstream manufacturers are going to eschew Blu-Ray for HDDVD.

If a new PC ships with an HD-DVD drive, then a consumer will have to actively change that drive for a BR drive. This requires more money and technical know-how. Unless a BR drive is shipped in a PC, 80% of PC consumers will not opt for it. The tech-savvy who want BR will purchase the drive and separate software to utilize it--a meager portion of the market.

And since burning DVDs is all the rage, and there is an HD-DVD drive in most new computers from most Big Box stores and suppliers (sans Sony), then most people are going to opt for the HD-DVD player for themselves and grandma.]]>Apr 19th 2006 3:10PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
They sell movies on VHS don't they?? Sony is around to make money... if HD-DVD is much more popular than Blu-Ray you WILL see Sony movies on HD-DVD.]]>Apr 19th 2006 3:11PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
Its not which cost more or less as everyone knows cost of technology goes down. How many people here have to upgrade every year because of microsoft? It should be which media has more potential by the amount of storage it can handle]]>Apr 19th 2006 3:21PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
Now, for the original post:
1. HD DVD's price lead is a reality, and it may have an effect. However I don't believe that non-educated people will be buying these players just yet. Only the educated people who AREN'T waiting. That's a really small segment of the market. I doubt we'll see much of a price drop by Q4. Remember that perception goes further than the name, a lot of people equate price with quality. I don't think price is going to stop the early adopters, they seem to have made their decision. And many HD owners have money to spare.

2. I've thought over this one... (last year, before we had any prices) and I'm not sure it's true. The fact is the average consumer doesn't know what EITHER is. If you asked a random person on the street to name a type of disc (sounds like family feud) I doubt HD DVD or Blu-Ray would come up, unless that person is a nerd. Now, when you GIVE the name to that same non-nerdy person, they will get an idea, but probably the wrong idea.

ex. Nerd: "Tell me what an HD DVD is."
Regular person (response): "It's a DVD that plays HD."

That's WRONG. That person expects that disc to play in their [SD] DVD player in HD. (Heck, just a year ago I thought I could get progressive scan on composite.) The fact is DVD, HD DVD, and Blu-Ray are all completly different technologies. The salesperson will have to explain the differences. If they are even mildly familiar with the formats, the explanation should go like this...

Salesperson: "Well, neither of these discs will play in your old DVD player, but both players will play your old DVDs. Blu-Ray and HD DVD don't work on each other. This HD DVD player costs less, but Blu-Ray has more movies available."

From your post: "this new one will play most of the new discs that are coming out"

That's not true. Blu-Ray supports two of the three major HD DVD providers, and also has many more exclusive companies.

Basically, I think it's up to the media. I've seen plently of XM vs. Sirius stories on the news, although they're back-pocket stories and a bit out-of-date. There's already been an HD DVD vs. Blu-Ray story on FOX Chicago (my news of choice) and that was before the prices were announced. It seemed balanced. However, I predict a bit of spin will come into play. NBC will be lean HD DVD (on account of Universal) and FOX and ABC will lean Blu-Ray. We'll see how it plays out, but I don't forsee any major successes for at least 2 years.

3. A head start of 3-4 months on a niche product won't be too great. Playstation 2 won because it had over a YEAR of a head start, with tons of hype from the PS1 community. It was heavily anticipated by a MAJOR fanbase, where as the HD community is much smaller. Also, people had grown into the PS franchises, but nobody knew what to expect from XBOX. That turned around with Halo, etc. and that's why 360 is doing so well.

I don't think there will be a winner for a few years. SD-only people will not buy the product. That leaves about 10% of homes. Half of those don't watch HD at all. 5%. Half of them are waiting it out. 2.5%. And I think that's generous. 2.5% of homes are looking into HD discs. By the time HD is strong enough in the marketplace, Blu-Raywill have resolved its issues (I know there are issues. This is because the format is being rushed.) and be the CLEAR dominant format. Also at that time, the price will likely have fallen to match HD DVD. Blu-Ray, if given the time, can win. I hope it does.]]>Apr 19th 2006 3:21PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
I am likely to just order more HD movie networks and try to "vote" for network delivery with my subscriptions, rather than invest in yet another round of re-released content. At least then maybe my cable company will have some more cash to upgrade their network pipes. I figure $500+ that I would have spent on an HD-DVD or BlueRay device will go a long ways to increase my access to HD content via cable.

Sure I won't own a copy of the content, but I never really did, since every time a better version of a movie is re-released on some new form of physical media, I have to pay full price again or watch the old out-of-date version. At least they could give us some sort of DVD trade-in discount for upgrading...



]]>Apr 19th 2006 3:37PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
The PS3 has a "next-gen" format DVD player but lets not forget about the deal that Microsoft has in the works with DirectTV on the XBOX 360... maybe Microsoft is already banking on the network delivery model.

Also... does anyone know if NEW movie releases are being released in HD-DVD right now? Like are the movies that are coming out every Tuesday going to have HD-DVD counter parts? If not why would anyone want to invest in this NEW technology just to watch OLD movies in HD?]]>Apr 19th 2006 3:47PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
But we're not here to talk about UMD, and frankly I don't see any parallels between UMD and HD DVD or BD.

You're argument about tons of studios making movies available on HD DVD is specious. Of course they would! The same is true of BD! The studios will flock to whatever format does better. That's a given. The question is what format will that be? And with support from more consumer electronics firms, more computer firms, and more Hollywood studios, BD has the definite edge.

One year from now the format war will still be in full swing. The way things are going now, you'll see a ton of BD players from many manufacturers, while only a few HD DVD players. There will be a ton of movies on BD, and only a little on HD DVD. What format will the consumer choose? BD.]]>Apr 19th 2006 3:57PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
This may be more like DVD+R vs DVD-R than VHS vs Beta. With DVD burning, eventually the hardware manufacturers straightened it out. Then the consumers snapped it up and made it mainstream.

]]>Apr 19th 2006 3:59PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
"While you're getting this maybe you should check out the latest in high definition gaming, oh and it even comes with a blu ray player for (1/3, 1/2?) the price of a standalone bluray."

Throw a kid card or two and your set right? I don't understand why people are so dismissive of the playstation 3 being blurays trojan horse, it's almost as if they've forgoten how sony put millions of then scarce dvd players in peoples homes in 2001 for a reasonable price. I honestly think the same thing will happen with blu ray.

On a side note it was a good read, thanks for the article.]]>Apr 19th 2006 4:19PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
2) The HD-DVD name is both positive and negative. It's positive because many are familiar with the term DVD, but it somewhat cheapens the product as DVD isn't really considered something premium anymore. Another problem with the name HD-DVD is that some might get confused into thinking the movies will play in their standard DVD players, so people are bound to get upset when they buy these movies and they don't work (unless the movie is a hybrid). Also, I don't think it will be too hard to explain to people that Blu-ray is yet another high-definition DVD format.

3) The only meaningful way to measure the first mover advantage is in units sold and as the first HD-DVD players will be in limited supply (about 30,000 units in the first 3 months according to Toshiba themselves) I doubt they will have time to build up any significant lead before Blu-ray launches this summer. Also, even if they were to produce this player in greater quantities it still wouldn't be of interest to general consumers with the long (30-45 seconds) boot and load times and the first generation problems that need to be worked out. I personally don't think anything that happens before Toshiba launches their second generation player later this year will matter much.
]]>Apr 19th 2006 4:21PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
-They've got Fox Exclusives.

-The PS3 alone will bring more attention to Blu ray than Toshiba can muster for HD DVD

-PS3 will be in the same price range of an HD DVD player

-The HD DVD is a slightly inferior product when compared to Blu Ray

-Sony is pomising full 1080p support through HDMI]]>Apr 19th 2006 4:38PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
"They sell movies on VHS don't they?? Sony is around to make money... if HD-DVD is much more popular than Blu-Ray you WILL see Sony movies on HD-DVD."

No sh*t... I guess that's why Sony has finally gotten around to native MP3 support on their MP3/MiniDisc players. Sure they'll come around because they want to make money.. but it'll be a LOOOOOOONNNNNNNGGGGGGGG time coming before they do.]]>Apr 19th 2006 4:55PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
K,k kay! Playstation had advantage over Microsoft because they came out 1 YEAR before they did. HD-DVD has NO advantage because they are coming out only 1 MONTH before Blu-Ray. Know your differences smart ass. And before you go all technical on BLu-Ray specs, let me remind you that Microsoft has added that they will not only include HD-DVD as an Add-on but it will only play movies! Sony has announced Blu-Ray to play Games AND movies. Two hard shells with one backbone. That's all integrated into the PS3. We'll just sit and see who wins this round smart guy!]]>Apr 19th 2006 4:59PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
Blu Ray's storage size means nothing all HD-DVD discs shipping so far are 30GB discs. That means 4+ hour movies.

The PS3 will close the gap but it's not going to supplant HD-DVDs lead quickly because consumer equate Playstation with gaming not necessarily movies and the price is still going to be hefty.

]]>Apr 19th 2006 5:02PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
The avg consumer will not get a BD plyr if it is 1k, unless it blows away the content(movies) on HD-DVD. But if the PS3 is under $700 people will buy that like crazy. Not only are you getting an awsome gaming system, but you get a BD movie player. ]]>Apr 19th 2006 5:35PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/]]>Apr 19th 2006 5:35PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
This will be settled in the marketplace and not the bulletin boards.

There is only one person who knows how this war will end. It’s Adam Smith and he is dead (so there’s no sense asking him).

All predictions, speculation and argumentation on this matter is purely academic (and academics don’t spend as much time watching HDTV as we do so let’s not be academic).

This only matters if you only plan to buy only one deck and keep that single deck until the end of time.

When one of the two formats closes up shop . . . some of you will be winners. This means you picked the right format because you are very-very smart (despite the steep 50-50 odds of getting it wrong) and you will have older, bulkier hardware with less features).

Some you will be losers, which means you’ll have to pony-up $100 for a new deck, find another shelf for yet **another** component and **maybe** buy HDMI switch box. (Oooh this is worst-case-scenario if there ever was one).

Everyone else will either have waited (starving themselves pointlessly) or bought multiple players of **any** format.]]>Apr 19th 2006 6:02PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
This will be settled in the marketplace and not the bulletin boards.

There is only one person who knows how this war will end. It’s Adam Smith and he is dead (so there’s no sense asking him).

All predictions, speculation and argumentation on this matter is purely academic (and academics don’t spend as much time watching HDTV as we do so let’s not be academic).

This only matters if you only plan to buy only one deck and keep that single deck until the end of time.

When one of the two formats closes up shop . . . some of you will be winners. This means you picked the right format because you are very-very smart (despite the steep 50-50 odds of getting it wrong) and you will have older, bulkier hardware with less features).

Some you will be losers, which means you’ll have to pony-up $100 for a new deck, find another shelf for yet **another** component and **maybe** buy HDMI switch box. (Oooh this is worst-case-scenario if there ever was one).

Everyone else will either have waited (starving themselves pointlessly) or bought multiple players of **any** format.

]]>Apr 19th 2006 6:04PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/Apr 19th 2006 6:10PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/Actualy yes the PS2 did hurt the DVD market when it was released in Japan. DVD was still fairly new and It came out cheaper than the lowest priced DVD Player. Many people bought PS2's just to play DVD software. Considering that Sony was losing money on every PS2 at launch, Sony would never make money unless games were purchased. Sony immediately had to lower the price one of its DVD models to take pressure of the PS2 being sold only as a DVD player.

When new formats come to market they are always expensive. This helps to return R&D investments of manufacturers. If Sony sells the PS3 less than the cheapest Blu-Ray player the same problem will happen again as in Japan. Sony cannot afford to sell PS3 to people that will only watch movies and not play games. They need those game revenues to cover the loss on every PS3 sold.Manufacturers in the Blu-Ray camp will be furious for Sony taking the profit out so early in the game.
]]>Apr 19th 2006 6:17PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
Now, for the original post:
1. HD DVD's price lead is a reality, and it may have an effect. However I don't believe that non-educated people will be buying these players just yet. Only the educated people who AREN'T waiting. That's a really small segment of the market. I doubt we'll see much of a price drop by Q4. Remember that perception goes further than the name, a lot of people equate price with quality. I don't think price is going to stop the early adopters, they seem to have made their decision. And many HD owners have money to spare.

2. I've thought over this one... (last year, before we had any prices) and I'm not sure it's true. The fact is the average consumer doesn't know what EITHER is. If you asked a random person on the street to name a type of disc (sounds like family feud) I doubt HD DVD or Blu-Ray would come up, unless that person is a nerd. Now, when you GIVE the name to that same non-nerdy person, they will get an idea, but probably the wrong idea.

ex. Nerd: "Tell me what an HD DVD is."
Regular person (response): "It's a DVD that plays HD."

That's WRONG. That person expects that disc to play in their [SD] DVD player in HD. (Heck, just a year ago I thought I could get progressive scan on composite.) The fact is DVD, HD DVD, and Blu-Ray are all completly different technologies. The salesperson will have to explain the differences. If they are even mildly familiar with the formats, the explanation should go like this...

Salesperson: "Well, neither of these discs will play in your old DVD player, but both players will play your old DVDs. Blu-Ray and HD DVD don't work on each other. This HD DVD player costs less, but Blu-Ray has more movies available."

From your post: "this new one will play most of the new discs that are coming out"

That's not true. Blu-Ray supports two of the three major HD DVD providers, and also has many more exclusive companies.

Basically, I think it's up to the media. I've seen plently of XM vs. Sirius stories on the news, although they're back-pocket stories and a bit out-of-date. There's already been an HD DVD vs. Blu-Ray story on FOX Chicago (my news of choice) and that was before the prices were announced. It seemed balanced. However, I predict a bit of spin will come into play. NBC will be lean HD DVD (on account of Universal) and FOX and ABC will lean Blu-Ray. We'll see how it plays out, but I don't forsee any major successes for at least 2 years.

3. A head start of 3-4 months on a niche product won't be too great. Playstation 2 won because it had over a YEAR of a head start, with tons of hype from the PS1 community. It was heavily anticipated by a MAJOR fanbase, where as the HD community is much smaller. Also, people had grown into the PS franchises, but nobody knew what to expect from XBOX. That turned around with Halo, etc. and that's why 360 is doing so well.

I don't think there will be a winner for a few years. SD-only people will not buy the product. That leaves about 10% of homes. Half of those don't watch HD at all. 5%. Half of them are waiting it out. 2.5%. And I think that's generous. 2.5% of homes are looking into HD discs. By the time HD is strong enough in the marketplace, Blu-Raywill have resolved its issues (I know there are issues. This is because the format is being rushed.) and be the CLEAR dominant format. Also at that time, the price will likely have fallen to match HD DVD. Blu-Ray, if given the time, can win. I hope it does.]]>Apr 19th 2006 6:41PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/Apr 19th 2006 9:09PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
There will have to be a HUGH leap in TV technology, not just a bump-up (DVD 1.5), in order to get people with NO MONEY, to part with their money on something that's NOT; Food, Clothing or Shelter.]]>Apr 19th 2006 10:31PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/Apr 19th 2006 10:55PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/Apr 19th 2006 11:47PMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/Apr 20th 2006 2:46AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/Apr 20th 2006 6:49AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/Apr 20th 2006 7:33AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/Apr 20th 2006 8:49AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/Apr 20th 2006 8:59AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/

And by the way. The PS3 is going to be around $700 according to many reports. Ma and Pap and Grandma and Grandpa don't want to spend $700 on a GAME console to watch good movies. PS3 is only a plus for hard core gamers that can cough up $700.
]]>Apr 20th 2006 9:50AMhttp://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/04/19/why-hd-dvd-will-prevail-my-opinion/
And as time goes by, more and more studios and companies will take advantage of the added capacity of both. But they'll hit the upper-limit on HD-DVD first. As they envision more uses for the added capacity, it will become clear that Blu-Ray is more preferable. ]]>Apr 20th 2006 9:58AM