AVS Forums: "Why Blu-Ray and HD DVD will fail"
by Matt Burns 
posted Oct 17th 2005 at 10:27AM
There is a good thread started over at AVS Forum concerning an opinion on why Blu-Ray and HD DVD will fail. Keep in mind that this is not our opinion here at HD Beat but rather an individual over at the very large forum site. The guy has some very good points and I happen to have the same overall concerns.
He states that they will fail for these 4 reasons
1. Public nonchalance
2. No set standard
3. Crippling DRM
4. Cost
I am not here to steal his thunder so venture over there to read his statements 'cause he does a good job of explaining his reasons. I hope he turns out to be wrong for all of us HD addicts, but he does have very valid points. What do you think: are both formats doomed to failure?
Filed under: Industry
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Jeff Johnson @ Nov 4th 2005 9:46PM
#6 - good point. I am an HD content provider with HD cams... the shooting for hdtv, editing and comping is totally different when done right. classic NTSC shooting actually makes very bad HD content. Closeups and lighting must be handled differently, and the age of crappy tv catches up with itself.
AV forun about HD media failure is off base crumudgeon talk. Walk into Magnolia or Tweeter or any high end room and its packed with buyers looking for a 2500$ pricepoint. wide flatscreen. mindlessly buying 1366x768 resolution and saying its HD.
MFG's are pushing so much into the marketspace that by jan 2006 you will get that same tv for 1999.
as far as gamers go... http://cfpprod.com/media/
i just put this video up, its an edit for my pals at CFP but it tells the story. Summer to Christmas 2006 is going to be huge game/HD time and the brick and mortar stores and game makers will rake in massive bucks. Following that the Internet in early 2007 will be hot with buying of media, mail order style. Expectations for the importance of 5.1 will run low as the impressive nature of the image on the screen totally captures the attention of the bucks.
Ray Morris @ Nov 19th 2005 5:35AM
Too many people are happy with standard DVD to make the switch to something new, again (after just giving up VCR tapes). Even with my Canon SX50 projector blowing up an image to 10 feet from left to right, standard DVDs still look beautiful, (though I'll still buy a select choice of HDs in time). Even now you see so many pores, zits, moles, wrinkles, film graininess,, ect. on standard DVDs, either HD format will bring all that out even more. It's not just the format (DVD, HD-DVD, Blu-Ray) but more importantly the devices playing-displaying the video that really makes the extreme difference from one HD-TV to another. Just step into a Curcuit City and see what I mean. HD discs wll be a select market exactly as Laserdiscs was 20 or so years ago.
spk @ Oct 17th 2005 11:15AM
Blu-ray will succeed because the Playstation 3 will have it. However, that's in the long term. The extent of take-up will depend on average PS3 users hooking their PS3s up to HD displays - and how many will/ are doing that?
Jason @ Oct 17th 2005 12:30PM
I think HDTV sales will have a lot to do with it. You gotta remember, there are no HDTVs over 37" that are cheap right now. Sure, lots are less expensive than they were, but nothing is cheap. (Not to mention plasma and LCD have drawbacks, LCD moreso than plasma). Let's see where SED pricing is in 2008. Sharp (LCD) is talking about some 1,000,000:1 contrast ratio silliness and the big 3 in plasma (Panasonic, Hitachi and Pioneer) are talking about cutting the power requirements (note some run near 500 watts right now). These people are worried BIG-TIME about Toshiba/Canon SED. REAL HDTV displays at reasonable costs will eventually drive the HDTV market, including blu-ray or hd-dvd.
Gil @ Oct 17th 2005 11:41AM
In the video market (HD that is) they may fail but Blu-ray has it's future firmly assured in the data market. Games, software, backups, etc. are all going to favor Blu-ray thanks to the 100GB theoretical capacity.
HD-DVD on the other hand has no other market than movies.
Cecil @ Oct 17th 2005 2:22PM
The public can't even understand the benefits of letterboxing, they buy the fullscreen DVD cause they think the picture is chopped off or that are losing that much of the TV their hard-earned money bought from working at the DQ.
Try to explain 16:9, anamorphic vs. non-anamorphic, and they look at you like a dog that's just been shown a card trick.
They do know that a DVD player hooked up to a HD set looks good,(and in their minds plasma=HD) when you tell them it could look much better and that DVD is not HD, they're like "Huh?".
The average person (whos money makes this format descision--its simple numbers, they have more) has no damn clue, and even though we commentors and the perprieters of this blog understand all of this though and though, this is completely the wrong damn time, and wrong product to have a format war about. Really though, Farjouda Chip in the DVD pumped out HDMI on a 1080p microdisplay set looks pretty damn good anyway, even if the set is being fed 1080i cause the set can't take a true 1080p signal.
The real innovation in this crap is going to simplification. Whoever manages to succeed in making all of this truely simple to hookup, simple to interface, and simple to control (without macro-based remotes) true interconnectivity, will come out on top. The best option now and in the future (since I don't see and interconnectivity standard in place for the consumer electronic dedicated box model EVER happening) is the Media-Center PC type of thing. All the complicated stuff handled by the computer, all devices connected to the computer, the computer dumbs it down for people.
derrick @ Oct 17th 2005 2:58PM
I jumped on dvd-a when it arrived and was blown away by the sound but inviting friends to come and listen and behold the wondrous sound was a dead issue ( they really couldn't tell) also the price of the media and lack of available titlesalso hurt. I truly believe that these 2 formats will be the same way videophiles will embrace it but everyday Joe will pass it up And yes I still use my dinasour LD player
shafique @ Oct 17th 2005 7:21PM
i think the two formats will fail because when the detail becomes THAT fine, actor's and actresses suddenly become not as attractive. for instance, watch most any tv show during primetime in HD, and notice the caked on make-up and crater-sized pores on their faces. suddently, teri hatcher looks older than my mom and jack bauer from 24 is wearing more makeup than a $17 hooker.